|Reference : Analysis of the past (1970-1999) and future (2046-2065 and 2081-2100) evolutions of prec...|
|Scientific congresses and symposiums : Paper published in a book|
|Physical, chemical, mathematical & earth Sciences : Earth sciences & physical geography|
Physical, chemical, mathematical & earth Sciences : Multidisciplinary, general & others
|Analysis of the past (1970-1999) and future (2046-2065 and 2081-2100) evolutions of precipitation and temperature, in the Province of Binh Thuan, South East Vietnam, based on IPCC models|
|Doutreloup, Sébastien [Université de Liège - ULg > Département de géographie > Topoclimatologie >]|
|Erpicum, Michel [Université de Liège - ULg > Département de géographie > Topoclimatologie >]|
|Fettweis, Xavier [Université de Liège - ULg > Département de géographie > Topoclimatologie >]|
|Ozer, Pierre [Université de Liège - ULg > Département des sciences et gestion de l'environnement > Département des sciences et gestion de l'environnement >]|
|Proceedings of the 1st International Conference on Energy, Environment and Climate Change|
|1st International Conference on Energy, Environment and Climate Change|
|August, 26-27, 2011|
|Ho Chi Minh University of Industry|
|Ho Chi Minh City|
|[en] climate change ; precipitation ; temperature ; climate extremes ; Binh Thuan ; Vietnam|
|[en] Natural resource-dependent societies in developing countries are facing increased pressures linked to global climate change. The Province of Binh Thuan, in South East Vietnam, where rainfall is on average 500 to 700 mm but can drop as low as 350 mm in some years, knows a recent increase of agricultural activities in order to contribute to reduce poverty although the technical efficiency of Binh Thuan is still very low. Within this framework of higher dependency of the local economy on the agricultural sector, there is growing evidence that changes in climate extremes are increasing exposure of currently vulnerable rural populations.
In order to assess the future climate of the province of Binh Thuan, only three models able to simulate the current climate in the study area were used out of the 24 selected by the IPCC: CCCMA-T47, INGV and IPSL.
The future climate projections (that is 2046-2065 and 2081-2100 compared to historical data 1970-1999) were focused on two targets: [i] assessing changes in climate statistics, and [ii] analysing the beginning and the end of the rainy season.
[i] The first analysis indicates an increase of mean temperature of about 1.6°C (over 2046-2065) and 2.5°C (over 2081-2100) and an increase of extreme temperatures and extreme rainfall events. However, no significant changes about the evolution of the annual amount of precipitation were found.
[ii] The second analysis indicates that the dry season is likely to be longer in 2046-2065 owing to a delay in the onset of the rainy season (up to 15 days) accompanied by an earlier end of the rainy season (up to 30 days).
Although it must be kept in mind that precipitations are the most difficult climate variable to predict, it is likely that increasing water needs to support expending agriculture within the context of climate change in the Province of Binh Thuan will be a challenge. Indeed, extreme rainfall events are likely to increase and unchanged yearly amounts of precipitation should be concentrated in time.
|Impact of global climate change and desertification on the environment and society in Southern Central Vietnam - Case study in Binh Thuan Province|
|Researchers ; Professionals|
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