Article (Scientific journals)
Seismic hazard in the Sea of Marmara following the Izmit Earthquake
Hubert, Aurelia; Barka, Aykut; Jacques, Eric et al.
2000In Nature, 404, p. 269-273
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Abstract :
[en] On 17 August 1999, a destructive magnitude 7.4 earthquake occurred 100 km east of Istanbul, near the city of Izmit, on the North Anatolian fault. This 1,600-km-long plate boundary1,2 slips at an average rate of 2–3 cm yr−1 (refs 3–5), and historically has been the site of many devastating earthquakes6,7. This century alone it has ruptured over 900 km of its length6. Models of earthquake-induced stress change8 combined with active fault maps9 had been used to forecast that the epicentral area of the 1999 Izmit event was indeed a likely location for the occurrence of a large earthquake9,10. Here we show that the 1999 event itself significantly modifies the stress distribution resulting from pre- vious fault interactions9,10. Our new stress models take into account all events in the region with magnitudes greater than 6 having occurred since 1700 (ref. 7) as well as secular interseismic stress change, constrained by GPS data11. These models provide a consistent picture of the long term spatio–temporal behaviour of the North Anatolian fault and indicate that two events of magnitude equal to, or greater than, the Izmit earthquake are likely to occur within the next decades beneath the Marmara Sea, south of Istanbul.
Disciplines :
Earth sciences & physical geography
Author, co-author :
Hubert, Aurelia  ;  Université de Liège - ULiège > Département de géographie > Géomorphologie
Barka, Aykut
Jacques, Eric
Nalbant, Süleyman
Meyer, Bertrand
Armijo, Rolando
Tapponnier, Paul
King, Geoffrey C. P.
Language :
English
Title :
Seismic hazard in the Sea of Marmara following the Izmit Earthquake
Publication date :
2000
Journal title :
Nature
ISSN :
0028-0836
eISSN :
1476-4687
Publisher :
Nature Publishing Group, Basingstoke, United Kingdom
Volume :
404
Pages :
269-273
Peer reviewed :
Peer Reviewed verified by ORBi
Available on ORBi :
since 26 November 2010

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