[en] An integrated hydrological model was developed in order to study the potential effects of climate change on groundwater resources. This model considers most hydrological processes in a physically consistent way. More particularly, groundwater flows are modelled using a spatially distributed finite element approach. The river-aquifer interactions are explicitly taken into account in the model, as well as the spatial heterogeneity of the chalk geology characteristics. After a detailed calibration on the last 30 years and validation on recent periods, quantitative interpretations can be drawn from the ground¬water model results. Considering IPCC climate change scenarios, it appears that, on a multi-annual basis, most tested scenarios predict a decreasing trend in groundwater levels in the Geer Basin. These first results indicate that groundwater deficits may be expected in the future in Belgium. Moreover, at this stage of the study, this trend is computed for a very “optimistic” scenario, neglecting all other pressure changes on the groundwater resources (i.e. no change in land use and in pumping conditions).
Aquapôle - AQUAPOLE
Fonds de la Recherche Scientifique (Communauté française de Belgique) - F.R.S.-FNRS