Artificial surfaces characteristics and sediment connectivity explain muddy flood hazard in Wallonia

[en] Over the last decades, the off-site damages caused by muddy floods have been of growing concern throughout much of Western Europe, and particularly in Wallonia (Belgium). A reliable identification of locations with a high muddy flood hazard is thus a key issue in this context. The main objective of this study was therefore to build and evaluate a muddy flood hazard prediction model in order to assess the probability of occurrence of muddy floods at any specific location. A logistic regression approach was used to explain muddy flood occurrence using a database of 442 muddy flood-affected sites and an equal number of homologous non-flooded sites. Explanatory variables were related to geomorphology, land use, sediment production and sediment connectivity in the contributing area. The prediction quality of the model was then validated using an independent dataset composed of 48 pairs of flooded and non-flooded sites. The best muddy flood hazard assessment model required a total of 5 explanatory variables as inputs: the mean slope, a sediment connectivity index, as well as the proportion, spatial aggregation and proximity to the outlet of artificial surfaces. The model resulted in a prediction quality of 76% (calibration dataset) and 81% (validation dataset). Including the characteristics of artificial surfaces substantially improved the model quality (p-values from 10−11 to 10−5). All three variables related to artificial surfaces showed negative correlations with the muddy flood hazard. The proportion of cropland was not included in the final model, but this variable was strongly inversely correlated to the proportion of artificial surfaces. Besides the characteristics of artificial surfaces, sediment connectivity also showed significant explanatory power (p-value of 10−12). A positive correlation between sediment connectivity and muddy flood hazard was found. Future muddy flood hazard models should therefore include both artificial surfaces characteristics and sediment connectivity-related information. Given the good prediction quality, the developed statistical model could be used as a reliable tool to prioritize sites at risk of muddy floods in order to install mitigation measures.

Research center :

BIOSE - Ingénierie des Bio‐Systèmes - ULiège

Disciplines :

Engineering, computing & technology: Multidisciplinary, general & others
Agriculture & agronomy

Author, co-author :

de Walque, Baptiste

Degré, Aurore ; Université de Liège > Ingénierie des biosystèmes (Biose) > Echanges Eau-Sol-Plantes

Maugnard, Alexandre

Bielders, Charles

Language :

English

Title :

Artificial surfaces characteristics and sediment connectivity explain muddy flood hazard in Wallonia

Publication date :

2017

Journal title :

Catena

ISSN :

0341-8162

eISSN :

1872-6887

Publisher :

Elsevier

Volume :

158

Pages :

89-101

Peer reviewed :

Peer Reviewed verified by ORBi

Funders :

SPW - Service Public de Wallonie [BE]

Available on ORBi :

since 28 June 2017

Statistics

Number of views

69 (10 by ULiège)

Number of downloads

1 (1 by ULiège)

More statistics

Scopus citations^®

Scopus citations^®
without self-citations

OpenCitations

Bibliography

Akgün, A., Türk, N., Mapping erosion susceptibility by a multivariate statistical method: a case study from the Ayvalık region, NW Turkey. Comput. Geosci. 37 (2011), 1515–1524.
Alder, S., Prasuhn, V., Liniger, H., Herweg, K., Hurni, H., Candinas, A., Gujer, H.U., A high-resolution map of direct and indirect connectivity of erosion risk areas to surface waters in Switzerland—a risk assessment tool for planning and policy-making. Land Use Policy 48 (2015), 236–249.
Atkinson, P., Jiskoot, H., Massari, R., Murray, T., Generalized linear modelling in geomorphology. Earth Surf. Process. Landf. 23 (1998), 1185–1195.
Bielders, C.L., Ramelot, C., Persoons, E., Farmer perception of runoff and erosion and extent of flooding in the silt-loam belt of the Belgian Walloon Region. Environ. Sci. Pol. 6 (2003), 85–93.
Boardman, J., Vandaele, K., Effect of the spatial organization of land use on muddy flooding from cultivated catchments and recommendations for the adoption of control measures. Earth Surf. Process. Landf. 41 (2016), 336–343.
Boardman, J., Evans, R., Ford, J., Muddy floods on the South Downs, southern England: problem and responses. Environmental Science & Policy Socio-economic Factors in Soil Erosion and Conservation, 6, 2003, 69–83.
Boardman, J., Verstraeten, G., Bielders, C.L., Muddy floods. Boardman, J., Poesen, J., (eds.) Soil Erosion in Europe, 2006, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd, 743–755.
Boardman, J., Shepheard, M.L., Walker, E., Foster, I.D.L., Soil erosion and risk-assessment for on- and off-farm impacts: a test case using the Midhurst area, West Sussex, UK. J. Environ. Manag. 90 (2009), 2578–2588.
Borselli, L., Cassi, P., Torri, D., Prolegomena to sediment and flow connectivity in the landscape: a GIS and field numerical assessment. Catena 75 (2008), 268–277.
Cavalli, M., Trevisani, S., Comiti, F., Marchi, L., Geomorphometric assessment of spatial sediment connectivity in small Alpine catchments. Geomorphology 188 (2013), 31–41.
Chung, C.-J.F., Fabbri, A.G., Probabilistic prediction models for landslide hazard mapping. Photogramm. Eng. Remote. Sens. 65 (1999), 1389–1399.
Cordonnier, H., Bielders, C.L., Convention ELIPSOL - Rapport final - État des lieux de la protection des sols agricoles en Région Wallonne. SPW. 2008.
R. Core Team, R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing. 2015, R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, Austria.
Croke, J., Mockler, S., Fogarty, P., Takken, I., Sediment concentration changes in runoff pathways from a forest road network and the resultant spatial pattern of catchment connectivity. Geomorphology 68 (2005), 257–268.
Demarcin, P., Degré, A., Smoos, A., Dautrebande, S., Projet ERRUISSOL, Cartographie numérique des zones à risque de ruissellement et d'érosion des sols en Région Wallonne, Rapport final de convention DGO3-FUSAGx. 2009, Unité d'hydrologie et hydraulique agricole, Faculté universitaire des sciences agronomiques de Gembloux, Gembloux.
Demarcin, P., Dewez, A., Maugnard, A., Pineux, N., Swerts, G., Vilret, A., Bielders, C.L., Degré, A., GISER-Gestion intégrée Sol Erosion Ruissellement-rapport d'activités année 4. SPW-DGO3. 2015.
Desmet, P.J.J., Govers, G., A GIS procedure for automatically calculating the USLE LS factor on topographically complex landscape units. J. Soil Water Conserv. 51 (1996), 427–433.
Evrard, O., Bielders, C.L., Vandaele, K., van Wesemael, B., Spatial and temporal variation of muddy floods in central Belgium, off-site impacts and potential control measures. Catena 70 (2007), 443–454.
Evrard, O., Vandaele, K., Bielders, C.L., van, W., Seasonal evolution of runoff generation on agricultural land in the Belgian loess belt and implications for muddy flood triggering. Earth Surf. Process. Landf. 33 (2008), 1285–1301.
Evrard, O., Heitz, C., Liégeois, M., Boardman, J., Vandaele, K., Auzet, A.-V., Van, W., A comparison of management approaches to control muddy floods in central Belgium, northern France and southern England. Land Degrad. Dev. 21 (2010), 322–335.
Faraway, J.J., Extending the Linear Model With R: Generalized Linear, Mixed Effects and Nonparametric Regression Models. 2005, CRC press.
Fox, J., The R commander: a basic statistics graphical user interface to R. J. Stat. Softw. 14:9 (2005), 1–42.
Gay, A., Cerdan, O., Mardhel, V., Desmet, M., Application of an index of sediment connectivity in a lowland area. J. Soils Sediments 16 (2016), 280–293.
Guzzetti, F., Carrara, A., Cardinali, M., Reichenbach, P., Landslide hazard evaluation: a review of current techniques and their application in a multi-scale study, Central Italy. Geomorphology 31 (1999), 181–216.
Heitz, C., Spaeter, S., Auzet, A.-V., Glatron, S., Local stakeholders' perception of muddy flood risk and implications for management approaches: a case study in Alsace (France). Land Use Policy 26 (2009), 443–451.
Hooke, J., Coarse sediment connectivity in river channel systems: a conceptual framework and methodology. Geomorphology 56 (2003), 79–94.
Jamshidi, R., Dragovich, D., Webb, A.A., Distributed empirical algorithms to estimate catchment scale sediment connectivity and yield in a subtropical region. Hydrol. Process. 28 (2014), 2671–2684.
Lee, S., Application of logistic regression model and its validation for landslide susceptibility mapping using GIS and remote sensing data. Int. J. Remote Sens. 26 (2005), 1477–1491.
Legrain, X., Demarcin, P., Colinet, G., Bock, L., Soil mapping in Belgium: historical overview and presentation of the current work on valorisation and revision of the digital soil map of Wallonia. Biotechnol. Agron. Soc. Environ., 15, 2011, 647.
Maugnard, A., Characterization and Prediction of Ephemeral Gully Erosion in Wallonia. (PhD Thesis), 2015, UCL.
Maugnard, A., Bielders, C.L., Bock, L., Colinet, G., Cordonnier, H., Degré, A., Demarcin, P., Dewez, A., Feltz, N., Legrain, X. et al., Cartographie du risque d'érosion hydrique à l'échelle parcellaire en soutien à la politique agricole wallonne (Belgique). Etudes et Gestion des Sols 20 (2013), 127–141.
Maugnard, A., Van Dyck, S., Bielders, C.L., Assessing the regional and temporal variability of the topographic threshold for ephemeral gully initiation using quantile regression in Wallonia (Belgium). Geomorphology 206 (2014), 165–177.
Maugnard, A., Cordonnier, H., Degre, A., Demarcin, P., Pineux, N., Bielders, C.L., Uncertainty assessment of ephemeral gully identification, characteristics and topographic threshold when using aerial photographs in agricultural settings. Earth Surf. Process. Landf. 39 (2014), 1319–1330.
McGarigal, K., Cushman, S.A., Ene, E., FRAGSTATS v4: Spatial Pattern Analysis Program for Categorical and Continuous Maps. 2012, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, Massachusetts, USA.
Peduzzi, P., Concato, J., Kemper, E., Holford, T.R., Feinstein, A.R., A simulation study of the number of events per variable in logistic regression analysis. J. Clin. Epidemiol. 49 (1996), 1373–1379.
Preux, P.M., Odermatt, P., Perna, A., Marin, B., Vergnenègre, A., Qu'est-ce qu'une régression logistique?. Rev. Mal. Respir. 22 (2005), 159–162.
Shu-Quiang, W., Unwin, D.J., Modelling landslide distribution on loess soils in China: an investigation. Int. J. Geogr. Inf. Syst. 6 (1992), 391–405.
Sougnez, N., van Wesemael, B., Vanacker, V., Low erosion rates measured for steep, sparsely vegetated catchments in southeast Spain. Catena 84 (2011), 1–11.
Spitalnic, S., Test properties 2: likelihood ratios, Bayes' formula, and receiver operating characteristic curves. Hosp. Physician 40 (2004), 53–58.
Stankoviansky, M., Minár, J., Barka, I., Bonk, R., Trizna, M., Investigating muddy floods in Slovakia. Land Degrad. Dev. 21 (2010), 336–345.
Steyerberg, E.W., Harrell, F.E. Jr., Borsboom, G.J.J.M., Eijkemans, M.J.C., Vergouwe, Y., Habbema, J.D.F., Internal validation of predictive models: efficiency of some procedures for logistic regression analysis. J. Clin. Epidemiol. 54 (2001), 774–781.
Te Chow, V., Open Channel Hydraulics. 1959, McGraw-Hill International Book Company.
Tjur, T., Coefficients of determination in logistic regression models—a new proposal: the coefficient of discrimination. Am. Stat. 63 (2009), 366–372.
Varnes, D.J., Landslide Hazard Zonation: A Review of Principles and Practice. 1984.
de Vente, J., Poesen, J., Predicting soil erosion and sediment yield at the basin scale: scale issues and semi-quantitative models. Earth Sci. Rev. 71 (2005), 95–125.
Verstraeten, G., Poesen, J., The nature of small-scale flooding, muddy floods and retention pond sedimentation in central Belgium. Geomorphology 29 (1999), 275–292.
Verstraeten, G., Poesen, J., Govers, G., Gillijns, K., Bielders, C.L., Goossens, D., Ruysschaert, G., Van Den Eeckhout, M., Vanwalleghem, T., Soil Erosion in Belgium: Chap. 1.30. 2006.
Vigiak, O., Borselli, L., Newham, L.T.H., McInnes, J., Roberts, A.M., Comparison of conceptual landscape metrics to define hillslope-scale sediment delivery ratio. Geomorphology 138 (2012), 74–88.
Wischmeier, W.H., Smith, D.D., Predicting Rainfall Erosion Losses—A Guide to Conservation Planning. 1978, U.S. department of Agriculture, 537.
Wisler, C.O., Brater, E.F., Hydrology. 1959, John Willey and Sons. Inc., NY (408 pp.).