Reference : Prediction-focused approaches: an opportunity for hydrology
Scientific journals : Article
Engineering, computing & technology : Geological, petroleum & mining engineering
Prediction-focused approaches: an opportunity for hydrology
Hermans, Thomas mailto [Université de Liège > Département ArGEnCo > Géophysique appliquée >]
In press
[en] prediction-focused approach ; stochastic inversion ; Bayesian formalism ; prior
[en] Our ability to predict the evolution of complex hydrological system is fundamental. For decades, such problems have been solved by calibrating a conceptual model of the subsurface to fit data. Unfortunately, model calibration does not allow a realistic uncertainty quantification, whereas stochastic inversion is often computationally prohibitive. In this contribution, prediction-focused approaches (PFAs) are introduced to overcome those main shortcomings. This new paradigm focused on generating predictions directly from the data instead of generating models. A group of prior models is used to generate the data and the prediction in order to derive a direct relationship between both types of variables. The advantages, limitations and research perspectives are discussed.
Fonds de la Recherche Scientifique (Communauté française de Belgique) - F.R.S.-FNRS
Researchers ; Professionals ; Students

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