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Using a dynamic vegetation model for future projections of crop yields: simulations from the plot scale to the Belgian and European scales
Jacquemin, Ingrid; Dury, Marie; Henrot, Alexandra-Jane et al.
2016FACEing the future : food production and ecosystems
 

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Keywords :
Dynamic Vegetation Model; Crop Yield; Europe
Abstract :
[en] Dynamic vegetation models (DVM), such as CARAIB (“CARbon Assimilation In the Biosphere”) were initially designed to describe the dynamics of natural ecosystems as a function of climate and soil with the aim of studying the role of vegetation in the carbon cycle. But their characteristics allow numerous other applications and improvements, such as the development of a crop module. This module can be validated at the plot scale, with the use of eddy-covariance data from agricultural sites in the FLUXNET network. The carbon fluxes (e.g., net ecosystem exchange (NEE), gross primary productivity (GPP)) and the evapotranspiration (ET) simulated with the CARAIB model are compared with the fluxes measured at several sites, in order to cover a maximum number of crop types (winter wheat/barley, sugar beets, potatoes, rapeseed,…) and to evaluate the model for different European regions (Belgium, France, Germany,…). The aim of this validation is to assess the model ability to reproduce the seasonal and inter-annual variability of carbon fluxes. In order to assess the spatial variability of the model, CARAIB will be applied over Belgium and forced with the outputs the regional climate model ALARO (4 km resolution), for the recent past and the decennial projections. To reach the larger scale, we also aim to assess crops yields over Europe and to quantify the uncertainties in the climatic projections. CARAIB will be driven with the outputs of different regional climatic models (RCMs), nested in CMIP5 GCM projections for the EURO-CORDEX project: ALADIN53 (Météo-France/CNRM), RACMO22E (KNMI), RCA4 (SMHI) and REMO2009 (MPI-CSC) RCMs. These climatic projections are at a high spatial resolution (0.11-degree, ≈12 km). The model will be set up for the most common crops in Europe and for simulations tests with marginal and/or new crops. Finally, this simulation ensemble will be used to highlight potential changes in the most productive areas of Europe.
Disciplines :
Earth sciences & physical geography
Author, co-author :
Jacquemin, Ingrid ;  Université de Liège > Département d'astrophys., géophysique et océanographie (AGO) > Modélisation du climat et des cycles biogéochimiques
Dury, Marie ;  Université de Liège > Département d'astrophys., géophysique et océanographie (AGO) > Modélisation du climat et des cycles biogéochimiques
Henrot, Alexandra-Jane ;  Université de Liège > Département d'astrophys., géophysique et océanographie (AGO) > Modélisation du climat et des cycles biogéochimiques
Berckmans, Julie;  Institut Royal Météorologique - IRM
Hamdi, Rafiq;  Institut Royal Météorologique - IRM
Hambuckers, Alain  ;  Université de Liège > Département de Biologie, Ecologie et Evolution > Biologie du comportement - Ethologie et psychologie animale
Tychon, Bernard ;  Université de Liège > DER Sc. et gest. de l'environnement (Arlon Campus Environ.) > Eau, Environnement, Développement
François, Louis  ;  Université de Liège > Département d'astrophys., géophysique et océanographie (AGO) > Modélisation du climat et des cycles biogéochimiques
Language :
English
Title :
Using a dynamic vegetation model for future projections of crop yields: simulations from the plot scale to the Belgian and European scales
Publication date :
29 September 2016
Event name :
FACEing the future : food production and ecosystems
Event organizer :
Justus-Liebig-Universität Gießen
Event place :
Giessen, Germany
Event date :
26-29 September 2016
Audience :
International
Name of the research project :
MASC
Funders :
BELSPO - SPP Politique scientifique - Service Public Fédéral de Programmation Politique scientifique
Available on ORBi :
since 07 October 2016

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