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Abstract :
[en] Fuel poverty refers to a situation in which an individual or household is not able to meet their basic energy needs. Fuel poverty is currently growing in the European Union. Research in this field is often limited to the assessment of the current risk of fuel poverty based on energy consumptions due to housing. Urban sprawl generates a significant increase in energy consumption related to daily mobility, which generates energy poverty related to transportation needs. This article presents a methodology for modeling the current and future energy poverty of households in Europe on the basis of energy consumptions due to housing, to daily mobility and their combination. Indicators for fuel poverty and transport poverty will be based on Hills’ method, which is widely recognized internationally for fuel poverty assessment and which takes into account two thresholds: energy expenses of households and their available residual income. This article will outline the spatial modeling process of energy costs due to dwellings and mobility thanks to the coupling of a GIS tool, cadastral datasets, existing methods for the assessment of buildings and transport energy consumptions and updated databases (EPB certificates, detailed mobility surveys, data from smart meters, mobile phones and GPS). Different scenarios will be selected to predict the evolution of fuel and transport poverty until 2040 on the basis of national and European prospective studies or, alternatively, based on the historical evaluation of some key parameters and their extrapolation. The evolution of built-up areas will be model thanks to the multinomial logistic regression model (MLR) that enables to visualize the consequence of different urban densities expansion. The different parameters that will influence the evolution of fuel and transport poverty until 2040 will be highlighted (climate change, urban expansion, fuel prices, energy performance of buildings and vehicles, etc.).
