Landuse change and future flood risk: an integrated and multi-scale approach

The goal of this research is a better understanding of the complex interactions between landuse change and future flood risk. Landuse change is mainly driven by population growth and socio-economic factors. It affects future flood risk by altering catchment hydrology and vulnerability in the floodplains, as well as through the feedback effect that changes in flood hazard may have on landuse evolution. The research is based on a chain of modelling tools, including: stochastic landuse change modelling, traffic modelling as well as Land-Use and Transport Interactions models, continuous hydrological modelling and efficient hydraulic modelling of floodplains inundation. The coupling of these modelling tools will allow assessing direct and indirect impacts of land use change on future flood risk, while considering the uncertainties related to each of these processes and their combinations at a 2100 time horizon.