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What are the determinants of the operational losses severity distribution ? A multivariate analysis based on a semiparametric approach.
Hambuckers, julien; Heuchenne, Cédric; Lopez, Olivier
20158th Annual Society for Financial Econometrics Conference
Peer reviewed
 

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Keywords :
operational loss; severity distribution; multivariate analysis; UniCredit; single index; extreme events
Abstract :
[en] In this paper, we analyse a database of around 41,000 operational losses from the European bank UniCredit. We investigate three kinds of covariates: firm-specific, fi- nancial and macroeconomic covariates and we study their relationship with the shape parameter of the severity distribution. To do so, we introduce a semiparametric approach to estimate the shape parameter of the severity distribution, conditionally to large sets of covariates. Relying on a single index assumption to perform a dimension reduction, this approach avoids the curse of dimensionality of pure multivariate nonparametric techniques as well as too restrictive parametric assumptions. We show that taking into account variables measuring the economic well being of the bank could cause the required Operational Value-at-Risk to vary drastically. Especially, high pre-tax ROE, efficiency ratio and stock price are associated with a low shape parameter of the severity distribution, whereas a high market volatility, leverage ratio and unemployment rate are associated with higher tail risks. Finally, we discuss the fact that the considered approach could be an interesting tool to improve the estimation of the parameters in a Loss Distribution Approach and to offer an interesting methodology to study capital requirements variations throughout scenario analyses.
Research center :
Quantitative methods in Operations and Management (QuantOM)
Disciplines :
Quantitative methods in economics & management
Author, co-author :
Hambuckers, julien ;  Université de Liège > HEC-Ecole de gestion : UER > Statistique appliquée à la gestion et à l'économie
Heuchenne, Cédric ;  Université de Liège > HEC-Ecole de gestion : UER > Statistique appliquée à la gestion et à l'économie
Lopez, Olivier
Language :
English
Title :
What are the determinants of the operational losses severity distribution ? A multivariate analysis based on a semiparametric approach.
Publication date :
June 2015
Event name :
8th Annual Society for Financial Econometrics Conference
Event organizer :
Society for Financial Econometrics (SoFiE)
Event place :
Aarhus, Denmark
Event date :
du 23 juin 2015 au 26 juin 2015
Audience :
International
Peer reviewed :
Peer reviewed
Funders :
F.R.S.-FNRS - Fonds de la Recherche Scientifique [BE]
Available on ORBi :
since 09 April 2015

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