Operational experience with Dynamic Line Rating forecast-based solutions to increase usable network transfer capacity

This proposed paper focuses on the criteria that need to be met to allow network operators to effectively use Dynamic Line Ratings in real-life operations. Different pilot projects in Europe and around the world have proven the DLR technology works in the field. The paper will highlight the experience the Belgian TSO, Elia, has had regarding those questions. The specific aspects detailed here is the usability of day-ahead forecasting of DLR. Indeed, most decisions regarding network operation and Electricity Market are taken many hours/days in advance; therefore if DLR is to influence these decisions, a reliable forecast of the dynamic rating values is required. Two-day ahead DLR forecast has shown an average capacity improvement of more than 10% over seasonal rating with 98% confidence, and potential impact on the European market regarding congestion issues is presented. The paper will further highlight 3 years of operation of two critical lines located near the North Sea and impacted by the connection of off-shore wind resources using intra-day and day-ahead forecasting of DLR. The conclusion of those experiences shows that innovative solutions emerge from two-day ahead ampacity forecast provided by DLR.