Article (Scientific journals)
Measuring the Effect of Stochastic Perturbation Component in Cellular Automata Urban Growth Model
El Saeid Mustafa, Ahmed Mohamed; Saadi, Ismaïl; Cools, Mario et al.
2014In Procedia Environmental Sciences, 22 (Winter), p. 156–168
Peer reviewed
 

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Keywords :
Uncertainty; Stochastic perturbation; Cellular Automata; Urban growth; Validation
Abstract :
[en] Urban environments are complex dynamic systems whose prediction of the future states cannot exclusively rely on deterministic rules. Although several studies on urban growth were carried out using different modelling approaches, the measurement of uncertainties was commonly neglected in these studies. This paper investigates the effect of uncertainty in urban growth models by introducing a stochastic perturbation method. A cellular automaton is used to simulate predicted urban growth. The effect of stochastic perturbation is addressed by comparing series of urban growth simulations based on different degree of stochastic perturbation randomness with the original urban growth simulation, obtained with the sole cellular automata neighbouring effects. These simulations are evaluated using cell-to-cell location agreement and a number of spatial metrics. The model framework has been applied to the Ourthe river basin in Belgium. The results show that the accuracy of the model is increased by introducing a stochastic perturbation component with a limited degree of randomness, in the cellular automata urban growth model.
Research center :
LEMA - Local Environment Management and Analysis
Disciplines :
Engineering, computing & technology: Multidisciplinary, general & others
Author, co-author :
El Saeid Mustafa, Ahmed Mohamed ;  Université de Liège - ULiège > Département Argenco : Secteur A&U > LEMA (Local environment management and analysis)
Saadi, Ismaïl ;  Université de Liège - ULiège > Département Argenco : Secteur A&U > Transports et mobilité
Cools, Mario  ;  Université de Liège - ULiège > Département Argenco : Secteur A&U > Transports et mobilité
Teller, Jacques  ;  Université de Liège - ULiège > Département Argenco : Secteur A&U > Urbanisme et aménagement du territoire
Language :
English
Title :
Measuring the Effect of Stochastic Perturbation Component in Cellular Automata Urban Growth Model
Publication date :
12 December 2014
Journal title :
Procedia Environmental Sciences
eISSN :
1878-0296
Publisher :
Elsevier
Volume :
22
Issue :
Winter
Pages :
156–168
Peer reviewed :
Peer reviewed
Funders :
The research was funded through the ARC grant for Concerted Research Actions, financed by the Wallonia-Brussels Federation
Available on ORBi :
since 10 December 2014

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