Avoiding the elephant: the net and nearly zero energy building target in Belgium

The recast of the European Performance of Buildings Directive (EPBD) requires all new buildings to be “nearly zero energy’ buildings (nZEB) by 2020, including existing buildings undergoing major renovations. Belgium was even first to set a definition for a ‘net zero energy house’ (NZEB) in 2009. The revised Energy Performance in Buildings Directive calls governments to meet the nearly zero energy targets by 2020. Governments must adopt and publish regulations and procedures for the other requirements mainly the cost optimal calculation by July 2012. There are many elements of the recast Directive that pertain to new buildings. Unfortunately, the recast does not set targets for improving existing buildings and non-legislative measures will be needed to address how to achieve a greater share of renovation. Therefore, this paper aims to identify the share of the newly constructed buildings by 2020 in Belgium. The objective is to put the nearly zero energy targets in a wider perspective in relation to the existing building stock. The paper investigates some future scenarios for the national buildings stock growth rate, coupled with demographic growth by 2050. The study’s final results indicate that newly constructed building will be less than 7% by 2020 and less than 15% by 2050 in Belgium. Thus by not addressing the potential for energy renovations in the building sector the EPBD is avoiding the elephant.