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Abstract :
[en] We used 3 IPCC climate change scenarios (A1B, A2, B1) in a dynamic vegetation model (CARAIB), to determine the potential future distribution of biomes and 75 species of trees used as food sources or sleeping sites by endemic primates, the golden lion tamarin (Leontopithecus rosalia) and the golden-headed lion tamarin (L. chrysomelas), in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest (BAF). Habitat conservation is a vital part of strategies to protect endangered species, and this is an approach to understand how key plant species needed for faunal survival might be affected by climate change and what changes to their distribution are likely. CARAIB computes the main physiological reaction of plants, e.g. water absorption or photosynthesis, as a response to temperature, precipitation, or CO2 partial pressure. The model accurately predicted the current distribution of BAF vegetation types and for 66% of the individual tree species with 70% agreement obtained for presence. In the simulation experiments for the future, 72 out of 75 tree species maintained more than 95% of the original distribution and all species showed a range expansion. The results suggested that the trees may benefit from an increase in temperature, if and only if soil water availability is not altered significantly, as was the case with climate simulations that were used. However, the results must be coupled with current and planned land-uses to maximise the usefulness to conservation, as the BAF is subject to many threats.
