Paper published in a book (Scientific congresses and symposiums)
Assessment of the Effect of Micro-Simulation Error on Key Travel Indices: Evidence from the Activity-Based Model FEATHERS
Cools, Mario; Kochan, Bruno; Bellemans, Tom et al.
2011In Proceedings of the 90th Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board (DVD-ROM)
Peer reviewed
 

Files


Full Text
CETAL-MICROSIML-NOV2010.pdf
Author postprint (144.68 kB)
Download

All documents in ORBi are protected by a user license.

Send to



Details



Abstract :
[en] Current transportation models often do not explicitly address the degree of uncertainty in travel forecasts. Of particular interest in activity-based travel demand models is the model uncertainty that is caused by the statistical distributions of random components, i.e. micro-simulation error. Therefore, the main objective of this paper is to assess the impact of micro-simulation error on two key travel indices, namely the average daily number of trips per person and the average daily distance traveled per person. The effect of micro-simulation error will be investigated by running the activity-based modeling framework FEATHERS 200 times using the same 10% fraction of the population. Results show that micro-simulation errors are limited especially when disaggregation is limited to two levels. Notwithstanding, results indicate that for more elaborate analyses a 10% fraction might not be sufficient. The size of micro-simulation error increases along with complexity. Moreover, more commonly used transport modes such as using the car as driver have a lower error rate. Further research should investigate the impact of the population fraction on the micro-simulation error rates. Besides, one could also investigate other aspects (e.g. the number of activities) involved in the activity-scheduling process.
Research center :
Lepur : Centre de Recherche sur la Ville, le Territoire et le Milieu rural - ULiège
LEMA - Local Environment Management and Analysis
Disciplines :
Special economic topics (health, labor, transportation...)
Civil engineering
Author, co-author :
Cools, Mario  ;  Universiteit Hasselt - UH
Kochan, Bruno;  Universiteit Hasselt - UH
Bellemans, Tom;  Universiteit Hasselt - UH
Janssens, Davy;  Universiteit Hasselt - UH
Wets, Geert;  Universiteit Hasselt - UH
Language :
English
Title :
Assessment of the Effect of Micro-Simulation Error on Key Travel Indices: Evidence from the Activity-Based Model FEATHERS
Publication date :
2011
Event name :
90th Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board
Event organizer :
Transportation Research Board of the National Academies
Event place :
Washington, United States - District of Columbia
Event date :
23-01-2011 to 27-01-2011
Audience :
International
Main work title :
Proceedings of the 90th Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board (DVD-ROM)
Publisher :
Transportation Research Board of the National Academies, Washington, United States - District of Columbia
Peer reviewed :
Peer reviewed
Available on ORBi :
since 16 November 2012

Statistics


Number of views
209 (1 by ULiège)
Number of downloads
150 (1 by ULiège)

Bibliography


Similar publications



Contact ORBi