Reference : Assessment of the Effect of Micro-Simulation Error on Key Travel Indices: Evidence fr...
Scientific congresses and symposiums : Paper published in a book
Engineering, computing & technology : Civil engineering
Business & economic sciences : Special economic topics (health, labor, transportation…)
http://hdl.handle.net/2268/134326
Assessment of the Effect of Micro-Simulation Error on Key Travel Indices: Evidence from the Activity-Based Model FEATHERS
English
Cools, Mario mailto [Universiteit Hasselt - UH > > > >]
Kochan, Bruno [Universiteit Hasselt - UH > > > >]
Bellemans, Tom [Universiteit Hasselt - UH > > > >]
Janssens, Davy [Universiteit Hasselt - UH > > > >]
Wets, Geert [Universiteit Hasselt - UH > > > >]
2011
Proceedings of the 90th Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board (DVD-ROM)
Transportation Research Board of the National Academies
Yes
No
International
Washington
DC
90th Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board
23-01-2011 to 27-01-2011
Transportation Research Board of the National Academies
Washington
DC
[en] Current transportation models often do not explicitly address the degree of uncertainty in travel forecasts. Of particular interest in activity-based travel demand models is the model uncertainty that is caused by the statistical distributions of random components, i.e. micro-simulation error. Therefore, the main objective of this paper is to assess the impact of micro-simulation error on two key travel indices, namely the average daily number of trips per person and the average daily distance traveled per person. The effect of micro-simulation error will be investigated by running the activity-based modeling framework FEATHERS 200 times using the same 10% fraction of the population. Results show that micro-simulation errors are limited especially when disaggregation is limited to two levels. Notwithstanding, results indicate that for more elaborate analyses a 10% fraction might not be sufficient. The size of micro-simulation error increases along with complexity. Moreover, more commonly used transport modes such as using the car as driver have a lower error rate. Further research should investigate the impact of the population fraction on the micro-simulation error rates. Besides, one could also investigate other aspects (e.g. the number of activities) involved in the activity-scheduling process.
Lepur : Centre de Recherche sur la Ville, le Territoire et le Milieu rural ; LEMA - Local Environment Management and Analysis
Researchers ; Professionals ; Students ; General public ; Others
http://hdl.handle.net/2268/134326

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