Reference : Investigating the Variability in Daily Traffic Counts Trough the Use of ARIMAX and SA...
Scientific congresses and symposiums : Paper published in a book
Business & economic sciences : Special economic topics (health, labor, transportation…)
Engineering, computing & technology : Civil engineering
http://hdl.handle.net/2268/134175
Investigating the Variability in Daily Traffic Counts Trough the Use of ARIMAX and SARIMAX Models: Assessing the Effect of Holidays on two diverse site locations
English
Cools, Mario mailto [Universiteit Hasselt - UH > > > >]
Moons, Elke [Universiteit Hasselt - UH > > > >]
Wets, Geert [Universiteit Hasselt - UH > > > >]
2009
Proceedings of the 88th Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board (DVD-ROM)
Transportation Research Board of the National Academies
Yes
No
International
Washington
DC
88th Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board
11-01-2009 to 15-01-2009
Transportation Research Board of the National Academies
Washington
DC
[en] In this paper, daily traffic counts are explained and forecasted by different modeling philosophies, namely the ARIMAX and SARIMA(X) modeling approaches. Special emphasis is put on the investigation of the seasonality in the daily traffic data and on the identification and comparison of holiday effects at different site locations. To get prior insight in the cyclic patterns present in the daily traffic counts, spectral analysis provides the required framework to highlight periodicities in the data. Data originating from single inductive loop detectors, collected in 2003, 2004 and 2005, are used for the analyses. Four traffic count locations are investigated in this study, an upstream and downstream traffic count location on a highway that is excessively used by commuters and an upstream and downstream traffic count location on a highway that is typified by leisure traffic. The different modeling techniques pointed out that weekly cycles appear to determine the variation in daily traffic counts. The comparison between seasonal effects and holiday effects at different site locations revealed that both the ARIMAX and SARIMAX modeling approach are valid frameworks for the identification and quantification of possible influencing effects. The technique yielded the insight that holiday effects play a noticeable role on highways that are excessively used by commuters, while holiday effects have a more ambiguous effect on highways typified for their leisure traffic. Modeling of daily traffic counts on secondary roads, and simultaneous modeling of both the underlying reasons of travel and revealed traffic patterns, certainly are challenges for further research.
Researchers ; Professionals ; Students ; General public ; Others
http://hdl.handle.net/2268/134175

File(s) associated to this reference

Fulltext file(s):

FileCommentaryVersionSizeAccess
Open access
SARIMAREV TRR AUTHOR POSTPRINT.pdfAuthor postprint466.64 kBView/Open

Bookmark and Share SFX Query

All documents in ORBi are protected by a user license.