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Pauvreté et désengagement citoyen dans la villeLejeune, Zoé E-print/Working paper (in press)Detailed reference viewed: 38 (17 ULg) Maqriziana XIV: Al-Maqrīzī’s Last Opus (Al-Ḫabar ʿan al-Bašar) and Its Significance for the History of IslamBauden, Frédéric E-print/Working paper (in press)Detailed reference viewed: 108 (18 ULg) Hedge fund styles and macroeconomic uncertaintyPlatania, Federico ; Lambert, Marie E-print/Working paper (in press)This paper examines the dynamic trading strategies implemented by hedge fund managers using a Kalman filter of hedge fund betas across styles. We further investigate the risk drivers of dynamic trades ... [more ▼]This paper examines the dynamic trading strategies implemented by hedge fund managers using a Kalman filter of hedge fund betas across styles. We further investigate the risk drivers of dynamic trades, examining which conditioning/macroeconomic variables strongly lead the time variation in fund trades. We report the significance of macroeconomic factors such as interest rates, dividend yield, GDP growth and US unemployment. We show that hedge fund managers do control the intensity of their exposures according to economic uncertainty and that differences between up- and down-market regimes can be observed. Commonly, Hedge funds tend to dislike high-dividend paying stocks. Besides, all hedge fund styles are shown to display pro-cyclical exposures towards directional equity factors as well as credit and liquidity risks. Small growth stocks, however, are revealed to be crisis investments whose allocation increases with unemployment, inflation or volatility. As volatility increases, the value of growth options embedded into growth stocks indeed increases. Growth stocks are shown to hedge market reversals and volatility. The outperformance of growth companies in recessions might also relate to their cost flexibility. Allocation to small stocks embed strong micro risks and might also constitute a hedge in economic slowdowns. This might explain why some funds with such a particular investment focus appear to be countercyclical. [less ▲]Detailed reference viewed: 10 (1 ULg) Zum Thema Präpositionen – oder über die mühselige Rekonstruktion präpositionaler Ergänzungen aus KorpusbelegenMünzberg, Franziska E-print/Working paper (in press)Detailed reference viewed: 17 (0 ULg) Sostanza e forma nella tradizione del romanzo arturiano in prosaLeonardi, Lino; Morato, Nicola E-print/Working paper (in press)Detailed reference viewed: 18 (1 ULg) Market efficiency and hedge fund trading strategiesPlatania, Federico ; Lambert, Marie ; Papageorgiou, NicolasE-print/Working paper (in press)Stock and option markets can at times reflect differing information. We identify three reasons for the presence of these periods of "disagreement" between the cash and derivatives markets: 1) high ... [more ▼]Stock and option markets can at times reflect differing information. We identify three reasons for the presence of these periods of "disagreement" between the cash and derivatives markets: 1) high volatility and noise trading; 2) high level of risk aversion; 3) speculation versus hedging trades. This paper investigates the role that hedge funds, a proxy for sophisticated investors, play in the price discovery process between stock and option markets and the disagreement/agreement periods. We observe that a disparity in information between the two markets is often associated with deleveraging in directional exposures and reversal strategies. Posterior to the event, active tactical asset allocation in small and value factor investing takes place. We investigate four specific macro events which resulted in significant rebalancing by hedge fund manegers: the Thai Baht depreciation, the Dot-com bubble, the credit crunch and the Nasdaq correction. [less ▲]Detailed reference viewed: 7 (1 ULg) Back to materialism Reflections on Marx’s labour, praxis, cooperative and libertarian socialism in the 19th centuryFrère, Bruno E-print/Working paper (2017)From Marx to Althusser, the materialist approach has tended to assume that individuals (that is, workers, proletarians and other social actors), unconsciously reproduce the social structures of capitalism ... [more ▼]From Marx to Althusser, the materialist approach has tended to assume that individuals (that is, workers, proletarians and other social actors), unconsciously reproduce the social structures of capitalism which alienate them. It is assumed that individuals accept the conditions forced upon them and no longer seek to rebel against a world which substantially impoverishes their labour, their spirit and their creativity. In this paper, I will try to show that by dint of favouring almost exclusively Marx's concept of alienation, there is a considerable risk that materialist thought will adopt only a negative path. Whilst I acknowledge Marx’s significance to materialism, I wish to argue that his stance should be combined with that of the anarchist and libertarian French thinker Proudhon. Proudhon has succeeded in presenting a conception of the worker as more than just alienated. Workers can also cooperate and experience a reciprocity seemingly at odds with the character of capitalism. Under Proudhon’s influence materialism takes a positive turn, enabling us to avoid falling into the utopianism that the theory of social economy employs to critique capitalism – a utopianism that renders its critique even less effective than that of Marx. [less ▲]Detailed reference viewed: 48 (1 ULg) How to account for new forms of resistance to domination: An argument for a materialist renewal in European social theoryFrère, Bruno ; Tulle, EmmanuelleE-print/Working paper (2017)Many significant intellectual developments have taken place in 20th century European social theories. Notably the first Frankfurt School and Bourdieu’s work have successfully shown how workers, social ... [more ▼]Many significant intellectual developments have taken place in 20th century European social theories. Notably the first Frankfurt School and Bourdieu’s work have successfully shown how workers, social actors, etc. are alienated or dominated by capitalist social structures. But according to Habermas, neither perspective successfully allows for the possibility that people could contribute to their own emancipation. The emergence of new forms of social resistance to domination such as those embodied by the Indignados, Anonymous, Femen, the practitioners of alternative economy, movements of unemployed people or illegals compels us to envisage the possibility for emancipation, but how? In this paper we explore opportunities for accounting for this by considering the work of a range of other European social theorists, more specifically Boltanski whose critical intent is embodied in his pragmatic sociology, and evident in his coining and use of the concept of the world. In addition we will consider Latour’s own pragmatic stance as we believe that despite his disinterest in new social movements, his work, informed by pure immanence, might offer potential solutions. But we would argue that even in these innovations there is either a persistent tendency to imagine emancipation primarily as a return to some ideal state or a lack of critical engagement with alienation. In response, we propose a materialist renewal, which will lead us to ponder on the political role of sociologists. [less ▲]Detailed reference viewed: 33 (1 ULg) The np- Control Charts with the Guaranteed In-Control PerformanceFaraz, Alireza ; Heuchenne, Cédric E-print/Working paper (2016)In this paper, we evaluate the in-control performance of np-control charts with estimated parameters. We then apply the bootstrap method to adjust the control charts’ limits to guarantee the desired in ... [more ▼]In this paper, we evaluate the in-control performance of np-control charts with estimated parameters. We then apply the bootstrap method to adjust the control charts’ limits to guarantee the desired in-control average run length (ARL0) value in monitoring stage. The adjusted limits ensure that ARL0 would take a value greater than the desired value (say, B) with a certain specified probability, that is Pr⁡(ARL_0>B)=1-ρ. We finally provide users with tables which with practitioners do not need to do bootstrapping Phase I data set to obtain the control limit thresholds. [less ▲]Detailed reference viewed: 86 (1 ULg) Nouvelles normes sylvicoles pour les peuplements purs équiennes d'épicéa et de douglasPerin, Jérôme ; Hebert, Jacques ; Lejeune, Philippe et alE-print/Working paper (2016)Ces documents rassemblent les tables de production (version 2016) représentant les nouvelles normes sylvicoles recommandées pour les peuplements purs équiennes d'épicéa commun et de douglas. Un ensemble ... [more ▼]Ces documents rassemblent les tables de production (version 2016) représentant les nouvelles normes sylvicoles recommandées pour les peuplements purs équiennes d'épicéa commun et de douglas. Un ensemble de 10 tables de production est présentée pour chaque essence, associant deux densités de plantation (2.5 x 2 m et 2 x 2 m) et 5 classes de productivité (0 à IV). [less ▲]Detailed reference viewed: 27 (4 ULg) A class of valid inequalities for multilinear 0-1 optimization problemsCrama, Yves ; Rodriguez Heck, Elisabeth E-print/Working paper (2016)This paper investigates the polytope associated with the classical standard linearization technique for the unconstrained optimization of multilinear polynomials in 0-1 variables. A new class of valid ... [more ▼]This paper investigates the polytope associated with the classical standard linearization technique for the unconstrained optimization of multilinear polynomials in 0-1 variables. A new class of valid inequalities, called 2-links, is introduced to strengthen the LP relaxation of the standard linearization. The addition of the 2-links to the standard linearization inequalities provides a complete description of the convex hull of integer solutions for the case of functions consisting of at most two nonlinear monomials. For the general case, various computational experiments show that the 2- links improve both the standard linearization bound and the computational performance of exact branch & cut methods. The improvements are especially significant for a class of instances inspired from the image restoration problem in computer vision. The magnitude of this effect is rather surprising in that the 2-links are in relatively small number (quadratic in the number of terms of the objective function). [less ▲]Detailed reference viewed: 80 (14 ULg) Early Detection of University Students in Potential DifficultyHoffait, Anne-Sophie ; Schyns, Michael E-print/Working paper (2016)Using data mining methods, this paper presents a new means of identifying freshmen's profiles likely to face major difficulties to complete their first academic year. Academic failure is a relevant issue ... [more ▼]Using data mining methods, this paper presents a new means of identifying freshmen's profiles likely to face major difficulties to complete their first academic year. Academic failure is a relevant issue at a time when post-secondary education is ever more critical to economic success. We aim at early detection of potential failure using student data available at registration, i.e. school records and environmental factors, with a view to timely and efficient remediation and/or study reorientation. For the sake of accuracy, we adapt three data mining methods, namely random forest, logistic regression and artificial neural network algorithms. Real data pertaining to undergraduates at the University of Liège (Belgium), illustrates our methodology. [less ▲]Detailed reference viewed: 12 (5 ULg) Appropriability and the European Commission’s Android InvestigationAuer, Dirk E-print/Working paper (2016)This paper seeks to ascertain whether Google’s Android licensing terms, which are currently under scrutiny from the European Commission, could be excused under an innovation defense framework. The paper ... [more ▼]This paper seeks to ascertain whether Google’s Android licensing terms, which are currently under scrutiny from the European Commission, could be excused under an innovation defense framework. The paper starts by analyzing Google’s business model with regard to its Android OS. It then identifies the Commission’s main concerns. It argues that Google is simply pursuing a sensible appropriation strategy. Finally, it puts forward a framework which hinges on the concept of “appropriability”, and tentatively applies it to Google’s behavior. [less ▲]Detailed reference viewed: 31 (2 ULg) Public Education Expenditures, Growth and Income InequalityArtige, Lionel ; Cavenaile, LaurentE-print/Working paper (2016)Detailed reference viewed: 38 (2 ULg) Le législateur wallon sommé de revoir le découpage des circonscriptions électoralesBouhon, Frédéric E-print/Working paper (2016)Le caractère proportionnel de notre système électoral n’est pas un vain mot et ne peut être contourné. C’est ce que viennent de rappeler deux arrêts, le premier, prononcé par le Conseil d’État, datant du ... [more ▼]Le caractère proportionnel de notre système électoral n’est pas un vain mot et ne peut être contourné. C’est ce que viennent de rappeler deux arrêts, le premier, prononcé par le Conseil d’État, datant du 20 novembre 2014 (n° 229.252) , le second, rendu par la Cour constitutionnelle le 26 novembre 2015 (n° 169/2015) . Le Parlement wallon doit revoir la carte électorale en vue des prochaines élections. [less ▲]Detailed reference viewed: 16 (4 ULg) Revealing the role of network rigidity on the fragility evolution of glass-forming liquidsYildirim, Can ; Raty, Jean-Yves ; Micoulaut, MathieuE-print/Working paper (2016)If quenched fast enough, a liquid is able to avoid crystallization and will remain in a metastable supercooled state down to the glass transition, with an important increase in viscosity and relaxation ... [more ▼]If quenched fast enough, a liquid is able to avoid crystallization and will remain in a metastable supercooled state down to the glass transition, with an important increase in viscosity and relaxation time towards equilibrium upon further cooling [1,2]. There are important differences in the way liquids relax as they approach the glass transition, rapid or slow variation in dynamic quantities under moderate temperature changes, and a simple means to quantify such variations is provided by the concept of "fragility". Here, we report molecular dynamics simulations of a typical network-forming glass, and find that the relaxation behaviour of the supercooled liquid is strongly correlated to the variation of rigidity with temperature and the spatial distribution of the corresponding topological constraints which, ultimately connect to fragility minima . This permits extending the fragility concept to aspects of topology/rigidity, and to the degree of homogeneity of the atomic-sale interactions for a variety of structural glasses. [less ▲]Detailed reference viewed: 29 (2 ULg) Core Content Classification in General Practice Family medicine (3CGP) The Q-Codes user guideJamoulle, Marc E-print/Working paper (2016)user guide and general explanation pages for the Q-codes, a classification of managerial issues in General Practice / Family MedicineDetailed reference viewed: 31 (1 ULg) L’aménagement forestier au Congo engendre-t-il plus de déforestation ?Karsenty, Alain; Cerutti, P.; Doucet, Jean-Louis et alE-print/Working paper (2016)Un article publié dans Land Use Policy début 2016 arrive à la conclusion a priori étonnante que la déforestation serait, au Congo, plus élevée dans les concessions forestières avec des plans d’aménagement ... [more ▼]Un article publié dans Land Use Policy début 2016 arrive à la conclusion a priori étonnante que la déforestation serait, au Congo, plus élevée dans les concessions forestières avec des plans d’aménagement que dans celles qui n’en ont pas. L’analyse d’évaluation d’impact qui a conduit ces chercheurs à un tel résultat se base sur un appariement de parcelles sélectionnées aléatoirement dans des concessions avec et sans plans d’aménagement. Ces chercheurs indiquent que le réseau de routes forestières plus développé dans les concessions aménagées serait un des facteurs explicatifs. L’autre facteur serait le développement local lié aux cahiers des charges des plans d’aménagement, lequel conduirait à une augmentation de la population dans ces concessions et à une déforestation accrue. Notre groupe d’une vingtaine de chercheurs connaissant bien la problématique de l’aménagement forestier en Afrique centrale s’est penché à son tour sur cette question et a analysé la déforestation au niveau des concessions sur le même intervalle de temps. Nos résultats montrent, cette fois, que la déforestation est moins importante dans les concessions avec un plan d’aménagement que dans les autres. Et si l’on compare à production égale la déforestation dans des concessions avec et sans plan d’aménagement, il apparaît que les UFA aménagées sont environ deux fois plus « efficaces », c’est-à-dire qu’on observe deux fois moins de perte de couvert forestier par mètre-cube produit. Nous en concluons qu’il est nécessaire d’analyser précisément la dynamique des différents facteurs de déforestation, et éviter d’imputer mécaniquement à l’aménagement forestier un rôle excessif dans l’évolution dans un sens ou dans l’autre du taux de déboisement. Enfin, toute évaluation doit rappeler que les effets de l’aménagement forestier doivent être mesurés sur le long terme : l’objectif de l’aménagement est de permettre une mise en valeur forestière durable, en conservant l’essentiel du capital productif pour éviter, autant que possible, la conversion à d’autres usages après les cycles de coupe initiaux. [less ▲]Detailed reference viewed: 60 (2 ULg) Five years on for Fukushima's IDPs: Life with radiological risk and without a community safety netHasegawa, Reiko E-print/Working paper (2016)On the fifth anniversary of the Fukushima nuclear accident, the article analyses what are at stake in the communities affected by the disaster, based on the result of the field interviews conducted in ... [more ▼]On the fifth anniversary of the Fukushima nuclear accident, the article analyses what are at stake in the communities affected by the disaster, based on the result of the field interviews conducted in Fukushima. [less ▲]Detailed reference viewed: 17 (0 ULg) Southern Blues Night , Heerlen (Hollande) 19 mars 2016Sacré, Robert E-print/Working paper (2016)Compte rendu de la Southern Blues Night annuelle de Heerlen aux Pays Bas, avec photosDetailed reference viewed: 17 (0 ULg) Note on the numerical solution of the scalar Helmholtz equation in a nanotorus with uniform Dirichlet boundary conditionsNguyen, Ngoc Duy ; Evrard, Roger ; Stroscio, MichaelE-print/Working paper (2016)This note describes the solution of the Helmholtz equation inside a nanotorus with uniform Dirichlet boundary conditions. The eigenfunction symmetry is discussed and the lower-order eigenvalues and ... [more ▼]This note describes the solution of the Helmholtz equation inside a nanotorus with uniform Dirichlet boundary conditions. The eigenfunction symmetry is discussed and the lower-order eigenvalues and eigenfunctions are shown. The similarity with the case of a long cylinder and with that of the vibrations of a circular elastic membrane is discussed. This similarity is used to propose a classification scheme of the eigenfunctions based on three indices. [less ▲]Detailed reference viewed: 29 (4 ULg) Challenges in Managing State Land in Cambodia: Addressing Competing Interests for Lands inside Protected Areas (PAs)Ngin, Chanrith; Diepart, Jean-Christophe E-print/Working paper (2016)Detailed reference viewed: 18 (2 ULg) La diversité des expressions culturelles au tourbillon du numériqueVlassis, Antonios E-print/Working paper (2016)Detailed reference viewed: 29 (2 ULg) Without Rain or Land, Where Will Our People Go? Climate Change, Land Grabbing and Human Mobility. Insights from Senegal and CambodiaVigil Diaz Telenti, Sara E-print/Working paper (2016)Detailed reference viewed: 42 (10 ULg) Some characterizations about Generalized Hölder-Zygmund Spaces Λ_{σ,N}^{α}(R^d)Kreit, Damien ; Nicolay, Samuel E-print/Working paper (2016)Generalized Hölder-Zygmund spaces $\Lambda_{\sigma, N}^{\alpha}(\R^{d})$ were recently introduced and are based on a generalization of Besov spaces. Under some conditions, generalized Hölder-Zygmund and ... [more ▼]Generalized Hölder-Zygmund spaces $\Lambda_{\sigma, N}^{\alpha}(\R^{d})$ were recently introduced and are based on a generalization of Besov spaces. Under some conditions, generalized Hölder-Zygmund and Besov spaces are equal. It has been proved that most properties of classical Hölder-Zygmund spaces are held for spaces $\Lambda^{\sigma,\alpha}(\R^{d})$, which constitute a particular case of spaces $\Lambda_{\sigma, N}^{\alpha}(\R^{d})$ with $N_{j}=2^{j}$. The goal of the present document is to prove that most of these properties are kept for $\Lambda_{\sigma, N}^{\alpha}(\R^{d})$ spaces. [less ▲]Detailed reference viewed: 11 (1 ULg) A Comparison of Departure Time of Day FormulationsLurkin, Virginie ; Garrow, Laurie; Higgins, Matthew et alE-print/Working paper (2016)Airline passengers’ itinerary choices are influenced by many factors including carriers, prices, the number of connections, and departure times. This paper compares three different methods that have been ... [more ▼]Airline passengers’ itinerary choices are influenced by many factors including carriers, prices, the number of connections, and departure times. This paper compares three different methods that have been used to model departure time of day preferences. The first is a discrete formulation that uses indicator variables to represent the hour of departure. The next two methods are based on a continuous formulation that uses a series of sine and cosine functions. One assumes departure time preferences over a 24-hour cycle and the other uses shorter cycle lengths that account for fewer departures during certain hours of the day. We compare models using itineraries in the Continental U.S. that are separated by two time zones. Although the discrete formulation fits the data better, the two continuous time of day formulations are preferred as they provide more intuitive predictions and require fewer parameters. Results between the two continuous time of day formulations are similar but differ in how strongly they weight itineraries that depart very early or very late in the day. Based on empirical results, we recommend testing both 24-hour and less than 24-hour cycle lengths for a particular dataset. [less ▲]Detailed reference viewed: 12 (6 ULg) Accounting for Price Endogeneity in Airline Itinerary Choice Models: An Application to Continental U.S. MarketsLurkin, Virginie ; Garrow, Laurie; Higgins, Matthew et alE-print/Working paper (2016)Network planning models, which forecast the profitability of airline schedules, support many critical decisions, including equipment purchase decisions. Network planning models include an itinerary choice ... [more ▼]Network planning models, which forecast the profitability of airline schedules, support many critical decisions, including equipment purchase decisions. Network planning models include an itinerary choice model which is used to allocate air total demand in a city pair to different itineraries. Multinomial logit (MNL) models are commonly used in practice and capture how individuals make trade-offs among different itinerary attributes; however, none that we are aware of account for price endogeneity. This study formulates an itinerary choice model that is consistent with those used by industry and corrects for price endogeneity using a control function that uses several types of instrumental variables. We estimate our models using database of more than 3 million tickets provided by the Airlines Reporting Corporation. Results based on Continental U.S. markets for May 2013 departures show that models that fail to account for price endogeneity overestimate customers’ value of time and result in biased price estimates and incorrect pricing recommendations. The size and comprehensiveness of our database allows us to estimate highly refined departure time of day preference curves that account for distance, direction of travel, the number of time zones traversed, departure day of week and itinerary type (outbound, inbound or one-way). These time of day preference curves can be used by airlines, researchers, and government organizations in the evaluation of different policies such as congestion pricing. [less ▲]Detailed reference viewed: 22 (3 ULg) Continuous Departure Time of Day Preferences for Continental U.S. Airline Markets Segmented by Distance, Direction of Travel, Number of Time Zones, Day of Week and Itinerary TypeLurkin, Virginie ; Garrow, Laurie; Higgins, Matthew et alE-print/Working paper (2016)Airlines use itinerary choice models to allocate the total number of passengers in a city pair to specific itineraries. In a related paper, we estimated a multinomial logit (MNL) itinerary choice model ... [more ▼]Airlines use itinerary choice models to allocate the total number of passengers in a city pair to specific itineraries. In a related paper, we estimated a multinomial logit (MNL) itinerary choice model using database of more than 3 million tickets for Continental U.S. markets provided by the Airlines Reporting Corporation that accounted for price endogeneity. The size and comprehensiveness of our database allowed us to estimate highly refined continuous departure time of day preference curves that account for distance, direction of travel, the number of time zones traversed, departure day of week and itinerary type (outbound, inbound or one-way). This paper and accompanying Excel spreadsheet located at http://garrowlab.ce.gatech.edu contain the results of all model coefficients (including the 1260 time of day parameters) and summarize results in a series of ten figures. These highly-refined time of day preference curves can be used by airlines, researchers, and government organizations in the evaluation of demand-management and other policies. [less ▲]Detailed reference viewed: 38 (4 ULg) Politique de la Ville : Dynamisation des coeurs de villeBastin, Florine ; Lacroix, Gilles; May, Xavier et alE-print/Working paper (2016)La régionalisation de la Politique Fédérale des Grandes Villes, suite à la sixième réforme de l’Etat, fut une opportunité de s’interroger sur les objectifs et l’organisation d’une Politique de la Ville en ... [more ▼]La régionalisation de la Politique Fédérale des Grandes Villes, suite à la sixième réforme de l’Etat, fut une opportunité de s’interroger sur les objectifs et l’organisation d’une Politique de la Ville en Wallonie. Dans ce cadre, la note de recherche CPDT n°63 « Politique de la ville. Dynamisation des cœurs de ville » répond à la volonté du Gouvernement wallon de se doter d’une vision territoriale stratégique sur le long terme et est un premier pas vers la mise en place d’une politique de la ville intégrée en Wallonie. Cette note fait le point sur, d’une part, les différentes politiques et outils relatifs à la restructuration et à la dynamisation des tissus urbains, au sens large, établis au niveau régional, fédéral et européen et, d’autre part, les propositions et recommandations relatives à l’évolution du cadre actuel. Cette réflexion s’adresse évidemment aux acteurs concernés par les enjeux de gouvernance urbaine : les décideurs politiques, les villes et les communes mais concerne aussi le citoyen. [less ▲]Detailed reference viewed: 56 (7 ULg) Structure et négativité dans la Préface de 1961 à L'Histoire de la folieOulc'hen, Hervé E-print/Working paper (2016)Detailed reference viewed: 17 (2 ULg) Fertility progression in Germany: An analysis using flexible nonparametric cure survival modelsBremhorst, Vincent; Kreyenfeld, Michaela; Lambert, Philippe E-print/Working paper (2016)- Objective - This paper uses data from the German Socio-Economic Panel (GSOEP) to study the transition to second and third births. In particular, we seek to distinguish the factors that determine the ... [more ▼]- Objective - This paper uses data from the German Socio-Economic Panel (GSOEP) to study the transition to second and third births. In particular, we seek to distinguish the factors that determine the timing of fertility from the factors that influence ultimate parity progression. - Methods - As a method, we employ cure survival models, a technique that is commonly used in epidemiological studies and in the statistical literature, but is only rarely applied to fertility research. - Results - We find that education has a different impact on the timing and the ultimate probability of having a second and a third birth. Furthermore, we show that the shape of the fertility schedule for the total population differs from that of “susceptible women” (i.e., those who have a second or a third child). - Conclusion - Standard event history models conflate timing and quantum effects. Our approach overcomes this shortcoming. It estimates separate parameters for the hazard rate of having a next child for the “susceptible population,” and the ultimate probability of having another child for the entire population at risk. - Contribution - We go beyond standard cure survival models (also known as split population models) used in fertility research by specifying a flexible non-parametric model (using Bayesian P-splines) for the latent distribution (related to the timing of an extra birth), instead of a parametric model. Our approach is (so far) limited to time-constant covariates, but can be extended to include time-varying covariates as well. [less ▲]Detailed reference viewed: 42 (4 ULg) Histoires de rayons verts : phénomène physique, critique de cinéma, spectateurs mélancoliquesBarbion, Sébastien E-print/Working paper (2016)En s’appuyant sur la physique, un roman de Jules Verne et un film de Rohmer, ce texte déplie les différents aspects théoriques et pratiques contenus dans le concept de rayon vert : un type de perception ... [more ▼]En s’appuyant sur la physique, un roman de Jules Verne et un film de Rohmer, ce texte déplie les différents aspects théoriques et pratiques contenus dans le concept de rayon vert : un type de perception, une manière de concevoir la critique de cinéma, une expérience de spectateur. [less ▲]Detailed reference viewed: 19 (2 ULg) A useful result related with zeros of continuous compactly supported mother waveletsAyache, Antoine; Esser, Céline E-print/Working paper (2016)In the last two decades, wavelet bases and associated methodologies have become quite important in many domains, such as signal and image processing, harmonic analysis, statistics, and so on. More ... [more ▼]In the last two decades, wavelet bases and associated methodologies have become quite important in many domains, such as signal and image processing, harmonic analysis, statistics, and so on. More recently, they also turn out to be quite useful in the probabilistic framework of stochastic processes, in which, among other things, they allow to obtain fine results concerning erratic sample paths behavior. The goal of our article is to derive a result, related with zeros of continuous compactly supported mother wavelets, which is useful in this probabilistic framework. More precisely, let $\psi$ be any arbitrary such wavelet; we show that being given an arbitrary point $x_0\in\R$ there always exists at least one integer $k_{x_0}\in\Z$ such that $\psi(x_0-k_{x_0}) \neq 0$. [less ▲]Detailed reference viewed: 12 (2 ULg) Stein's method for comparison of univariate distributionsSwan, Yvik ; Reinert, Gesine; Ley, ChristopheE-print/Working paper (2016)Detailed reference viewed: 36 (1 ULg) Nonparametric control charts: economic statistical designMarcos Alvarez, Alejandro ; Heuchenne, Cédric ; Faraz, Alireza E-print/Working paper (2016)This paper studies economic statistical designs (ESD) for nonparametric control charts based on the sign and Wilcoxon tests. The main advantage of the procedures is that, except for the tested location ... [more ▼]This paper studies economic statistical designs (ESD) for nonparametric control charts based on the sign and Wilcoxon tests. The main advantage of the procedures is that, except for the tested location parameter, they do not use either any parametric distribution for the quality characteristic or any information about the possible involved parameters, neither in the in-control nor in the out-of-control state. This is made possible by minimizing a cost function specified independently of these quantities. Unlike the ESD for the $\overline{x}$ chart, the resulting charts designs are robust to changes of the distributions of the observations (in control or out of control), provide reliable statistical guarantees when the $\overline{x}$ chart ESD does not and stay competitive even when the strong assumptions of the $\overline{x}$ chart ESD are fully satisfied. These new techniques can therefore be applied to a definitely wider class of problems and their designs may stay constant over time without losing performance. [less ▲]Detailed reference viewed: 31 (1 ULg) Online Learning for Strong Branching Approximation in Branch-and-BoundMarcos Alvarez, Alejandro ; Wehenkel, Louis ; Louveaux, Quentin E-print/Working paper (2016)We present an online learning approach to variable branching in branch-and-bound for mixed-integer linear problems. Our approach consists in learning strong branching scores in an online fashion and in ... [more ▼]We present an online learning approach to variable branching in branch-and-bound for mixed-integer linear problems. Our approach consists in learning strong branching scores in an online fashion and in using them to take branching decisions. More specifically, numerical scores are used to rank the branching candidates. If, for a given variable, the learned approximation is deemed reliable, then the score for that variable is computed thanks to the learned function. If the approximation is not reliable yet, the real strong branching score is used instead. The scores that are computed through the real strong branching procedure are fed to the online learning algorithm in order to improve the approximated function. The experiments show promising results. [less ▲]Detailed reference viewed: 51 (4 ULg) On the processing of red pigment by late mousterian Neanderthals in Ormesson, Seine-et-Marne, France, 47000 years agoSalomon, Hélène ; Bodu, Pierre; Geurten, Stéphanie et alE-print/Working paper (2016)Detailed reference viewed: 12 (6 ULg) Old‐Age Employment and Hours of Work Trends: Empirical Analysis for Four European CountriesJousten, Alain ; Perelman, Sergio ; Flawinne, Xavier et alE-print/Working paper (2016)For the last two decades, the increase of employment among cohorts of individuals aged 50+ has been a policy objective on the European employment agenda. The present paper takes stock of the situation as ... [more ▼]For the last two decades, the increase of employment among cohorts of individuals aged 50+ has been a policy objective on the European employment agenda. The present paper takes stock of the situation as observed in Belgium over the time period 1997-2011. First, we provide analysis on the evolution of older workers’ employment in Belgium and its neighboring countries Germany, France and the Netherlands using the EU Labour Force Survey. Second, we characterize the different employment and hours of work patterns for different age sub‐groups (50‐54, 55‐59, 60‐64) and provide evidence on their respective evolution. The results show that employment rates among older workers started to catch‐up with employment rates of younger cohorts as of 2001, and with more acuity after 2006. This effect dominates the observed negative effect on hours of work and hence leads to an increase in total hours of work of the cohort – net of any purely demographic effects. [less ▲]Detailed reference viewed: 21 (3 ULg) Bispecial factors in the Brun S-adic systemLabbé, Sébastien ; Leroy, Julien E-print/Working paper (2016)Detailed reference viewed: 21 (2 ULg) A stroll along the gammaArras, Benjamin ; Swan, Yvik E-print/Working paper (2016)Detailed reference viewed: 41 (5 ULg) Fundamentals for an International Typology of Social Enterprise ModelsDefourny, Jacques ; Nyssens, MartheE-print/Working paper (2016)Detailed reference viewed: 29 (2 ULg) El idealismo europeo frente a la realidad global: ¿del enfoque regional a la preferencia por las potencias emergentes?Santander, Sébastian E-print/Working paper (2016)Detailed reference viewed: 61 (5 ULg) Robust asymptotic tests for the equality of multivariate coefficients of variationAerts, Stéphanie ; Haesbroeck, Gentiane E-print/Working paper (2016)In order to easily compare several populations on the basis of more than one feature, multivariate coefficients of variation (MCV) may be used as they allow to summarize relative dispersion in a single ... [more ▼]In order to easily compare several populations on the basis of more than one feature, multivariate coefficients of variation (MCV) may be used as they allow to summarize relative dispersion in a single index. However, up to date, no test of equality of one or more MCV's has been developed in the literature. In this paper, several classical and robust Wald type tests are proposed and studied. The asymptotic distributions of the test statistics are derived under elliptical symmetry, and the asymptotic efficiency of the robust versions is compared to the classical tests. Robustness of the proposed procedures is examined through partial influence functions of the test statistic, as well as by means of power and level influence functions. A simulation study compares the performance of the classical and robust tests under uncontaminated and contaminated schemes, and the difference with the usual covariance homogeneity test is highlighted. As a by-product, these tests may also be considered in the univariate context where they yield procedures that are both robust and easy-to-use. They provide an interesting alternative to the numerous parametric tests of comparison of univariate coefficients of variation existing in the literature, which are, in most cases, unreliable in presence of outliers. The methods are illustrated on a real data set. [less ▲]Detailed reference viewed: 6 (0 ULg) Identification of the concepts at stake during a consultation. Clinical exercisesJamoulle, Marc E-print/Working paper (2015)During a consultation between a patient and a doctor, symptoms, process and health problems are at stake and could be identified and retrieved through the use of ICPC.(refer to www.ph3c.org) Specific ... [more ▼]During a consultation between a patient and a doctor, symptoms, process and health problems are at stake and could be identified and retrieved through the use of ICPC.(refer to www.ph3c.org) Specific training and managerial competences of the doctor could be identified and explained through the Q-Codes Together ICPC and Q-Codes form 3CGP ; Core Content Classification in General Practice/ Family Medicine The concepts identified in ICPC and Q-Codes could be useful to understand and teach the content of consultation in family medicine. [less ▲]Detailed reference viewed: 34 (7 ULg) Festivals Acadiens et CreolesSacré, Robert E-print/Working paper (2015)Comptes-rendus avec photos et liens Internet : 1) Houston et Galveston ( TX) 2) Festivals Acadiens et Créoles à Lafayette ( LA) jours 1 , 2 et 3 3) Lafayette by nightDetailed reference viewed: 22 (0 ULg) Why Did the Industrial Revolution Start in Britain?Van Neuss, Leif E-print/Working paper (2015)The main goal of this paper is to provide an integrated overview of the literature devoted to identifying the causes of the British industrial revolution. Why did the industrial revolution, a fascinating ... [more ▼]The main goal of this paper is to provide an integrated overview of the literature devoted to identifying the causes of the British industrial revolution. Why did the industrial revolution, a fascinating and multifaceted event which brought about modern economic growth, occur in eighteenth-century Britain? This question has animated a lot of discussions among scholars and is still nowadays heatedly debated in the literature. This debate is reflected in the large spectrum of theories which aim at explaining the true origins of the British industrialization. The paper first sheds light on a rising debate concerning the evolution of British incomes per capita before the British industrial revolution and the “Great Divergence”. The paper then investigates the proposed causes of the British industrialization, aggregating them into seven broad categories, i.e. (1) geography and natural resources, (2) demography, (3) agricultural progress, (4) demand-side factors, (5) trade and empire, (6) institutional and political factors, (7) science, technology, and human capital. [less ▲]Detailed reference viewed: 270 (23 ULg) From 'Risk Communication' to Participatory Radiation Risk AssessmentShirabe, Masashi; Fassert, Christine; Hasegawa, Reiko E-print/Working paper (2015)In the aftermath of the Fukushima nuclear accident, many of the post¿disaster responses undertaken by the Japanese government sparked vivid debates and criticisms from the civil society. The article ... [more ▼]In the aftermath of the Fukushima nuclear accident, many of the post¿disaster responses undertaken by the Japanese government sparked vivid debates and criticisms from the civil society. The article examines the post-accidental management of the authorities, with a special focus on their risk communication, and explores what went wrong in the process. It deals with the issues of risk assessment, expertise, counter-expertise, policy-makings, stakeholder participation, and trust in crisis and disaster situations. [less ▲]Detailed reference viewed: 31 (1 ULg) Large neighborhood search for multi-trip vehicle routingFrançois, Véronique ; Arda, Yasemin ; Crama, Yves et alE-print/Working paper (2015)We consider two large neighborhood search approaches for the multi-trip vehicle routing problem, where each vehicle can perform several routes during the working shift to serve a set of customers. The ... [more ▼]We consider two large neighborhood search approaches for the multi-trip vehicle routing problem, where each vehicle can perform several routes during the working shift to serve a set of customers. The problem specifically arises when customers are close to each other and/or when the demands are large. A common approach in the literature consists in solving this problem by mixing vehicle routing heuristics with bin packing routines to assign routes to vehicles. We compare this approach with the use of specific operators designed to tackle the routing and the assignment aspects of the problem simultaneously. We provide several best known solutions for benchmark instances. At the end of the work, we give insights about the proposed algorithm configurations by analyzing the behavior of several method components. [less ▲]Detailed reference viewed: 136 (18 ULg) Qui ne risque rien n'a rien... Ou comment la Cour européenne des droits de l'homme incite le justiciable à éprouver la protection de ses droits fondamentaux devant son juge nationalRosoux, Géraldine E-print/Working paper (2015)L'article analyse la décision Gherghina c. Roumanie du 9 juillet 2015, qui rejette une requête pour défaut d'épuisement des voies de recours internes.Detailed reference viewed: 18 (0 ULg) 25 novembre 2015 : cent ans de RelativitéDe Rop, Yves E-print/Working paper (2015)La théorie proposée par Einstein au début du XXe siècle porte bien mal son nom; car si, historiquement, l'accent fut mis d'abord sur la relativité de certaines notions (en particulier, la mesure de l ... [more ▼]La théorie proposée par Einstein au début du XXe siècle porte bien mal son nom; car si, historiquement, l'accent fut mis d'abord sur la relativité de certaines notions (en particulier, la mesure de l'intervalle de temps écoulé entre deux événements donnés), on a compris par la suite qu'elle reposait plus fondamentalement sur l'existence de quantités absolues, c'est-à-dire, dont la mesure est identique pour tous les observateurs, quel que soit leur état de repos ou de mouvement. Ces quantités sont inconnues de la mécanique de Newton, laquelle ne reconnaît qu'un seul invariant : le temps. Ce texte cherche à retracer, avec un minimum de formalisme, comment s'est imposé un nouveau cadre géométrique pour la physique, dominé par cette exigence d'invariance des mesures spatio-temporelles et intégrant une description révolutionnaire de la gravitation. [less ▲]Detailed reference viewed: 67 (12 ULg) Elmore D. L'intégrale Frémeaux et Ass.Sacré, Robert E-print/Working paper (2015)Compte rendu Coffret 5 CDs + livret . La Wallon et le Blues , un mariage réussiDetailed reference viewed: 12 (0 ULg) Mars nighttime auroraEuropean Space Agency, ESA/ATG medialab; Gérard, Jean-Claude ; Soret, Lauriane E-print/Working paper (2015)Press release by the European Space Agency (ESA) on the occasion of the publication in two journals of the peer-reviewed literatureDetailed reference viewed: 22 (1 ULg) Rebates and Article 102 TFEU: The European Commission's Duty to Apply the Guidance PaperPetit, Nicolas E-print/Working paper (2015)This paper shows that the European Union (EU) courts' case-law and general principles of EU law place the European Commission (“Commission”) under a duty to apply the Guidance Communication on Enforcement ... [more ▼]This paper shows that the European Union (EU) courts' case-law and general principles of EU law place the European Commission (“Commission”) under a duty to apply the Guidance Communication on Enforcement Priorities (“Guidance Paper”) in abuse of dominance cases started after its adoption. This duty includes the obligation to test Article 102 TFEU cases under the As Efficient Competitor (“AEC”) framework, as set out in the 2009 Guidance Paper. The judgments handed down by the Union courts in Intel v Commission and Post Danmark II do not alter in any way the Commission’s “self binding” duty to apply the Guidance Paper. If the Commission wishes to depart from the AEC framework, it must officially withdraw its Guidance Paper. [less ▲]Detailed reference viewed: 32 (2 ULg) Les Nouveaux Réactionnaires : mythe ou réalité ?Durand, Pascal ; Sindaco, Sarah ; Devecchio, AlexandreE-print/Working paper (2015)Detailed reference viewed: 52 (3 ULg) Multi-period vehicle allocation with uncertain transportation requestsCrama, Yves ; Pironet, Thierry E-print/Working paper (2015)This work investigates optimization techniques for a multi-period vehicle allocation problem with uncertain requests. A company owning a limited fleet of trucks attempts to maximize its operational profit ... [more ▼]This work investigates optimization techniques for a multi-period vehicle allocation problem with uncertain requests. A company owning a limited fleet of trucks attempts to maximize its operational profit over an infinite horizon by optimally assigning transportation orders to the vehicles. Its profit stems from profits collected when transporting full truckloads, minus costs incurred when waiting or when moving unladen. The stochastic component of the problem arises from the uncertainty on the realization of each transportation order. The methodology is based on optimizing decisions for deterministic scenarios. Several policies are generated in this way, either by simple heuristics, or by more complex approaches, such as consensus and restricted expectation algorithms, or from network flow formulations over subtrees of scenarios. Myopic and a-posteriori deterministic optimization models are used to compute bounds allowing for performance evaluation. Numerical experiments are performed on various instances featuring different numbers of orders, graph sizes, sparsity, and probability distributions, and the performance of the algorithms is assessed by statistical tests. The robustness of various policies with respect to erroneous evaluations of the probability distributions is also analyzed. [less ▲]Detailed reference viewed: 146 (15 ULg) L’accompagnement de projets d’entrepreneuriat social dans leurs phases initialesDufays, Frédéric ; Lovens, Caroline ; Mertens de Wilmars, Sybille E-print/Working paper (2015)L’entrepreneuriat social connaît depuis quelques années un intérêt croissant. Mais pour les entrepreneurs sociaux, concilier les dimensions sociales et économiques demande de faire face à des défis bien ... [more ▼]L’entrepreneuriat social connaît depuis quelques années un intérêt croissant. Mais pour les entrepreneurs sociaux, concilier les dimensions sociales et économiques demande de faire face à des défis bien spécifiques. Ne faut-il donc pas favoriser un accompagnement sur-mesure et modulable ? C’est le défi qu’a choisi de relever en Belgique francophone le programme ImpulCera en proposant aux entrepreneurs sociaux un soutien financier pour la réalisation d’une étude de faisabilité et pour le lancement de leur projet. Le présent article présente quelques résultats de l’évaluation de ce programme ainsi que les enseignements qui peuvent en être dégagés. [less ▲]Detailed reference viewed: 67 (4 ULg) Pour analyser la qualité des médicamentsZiemons, Eric E-print/Working paper (2015)Technique permettant de décortiquer les caractéristiques chimiques et physiques des molécules, la spectroscopie vibrationnelle est précieuse dans le domaine pharmaceutique. Les chercheurs du laboratoire ... [more ▼]Technique permettant de décortiquer les caractéristiques chimiques et physiques des molécules, la spectroscopie vibrationnelle est précieuse dans le domaine pharmaceutique. Les chercheurs du laboratoire de Chimie Analytique de l’Université de Liège, spécialistes dans ce domaine de recherche, collaborent régulièrement avec des entreprises pharmaceutiques pour contrôler leurs matières premières, produits finis et procédés. [less ▲]Detailed reference viewed: 18 (1 ULg) Long-term activity and outburst of comet C/2013 A1 (Siding Spring) from narrow-band photometry and long-slit spectroscopyOpitom, Cyrielle ; Guilbert-Lepoutre, A.; Jehin, Emmanuel et alE-print/Working paper (2015)In this paper, we present a unique data set of more than one year's worth of regular observations of comet C/2013 A1(Siding Spring) with TRAPPIST in Chile, along with low-resolution spectra obtained with ... [more ▼]In this paper, we present a unique data set of more than one year's worth of regular observations of comet C/2013 A1(Siding Spring) with TRAPPIST in Chile, along with low-resolution spectra obtained with the ESO/VLT FORS 2 instrument. The comet made a close approach to Mars on October 19, 2014 and was then observed by many space and ground-based telescopes. We followed the evolution of the OH, NH, CN, $\mathrm{C_3}$, and $\mathrm{C_2}$ production rates as well as the $Af\rho$ parameter as a proxy for the dust production. We detected an outburst two weeks after perihelion, with gas and dust production rates being multiplied by a factor five within a few days. By modelling the shape of the CN and $\mathrm{C_2}$ radial profiles, we determined that the outburst happened around on November 10 around 15:30 UT ($\pm$ 5h) and measured a gas ejection velocity of $1.1\pm0.2$ km/s. We used a thermal evolution model to reproduce the activity pattern and outburst. Our results are consistent with the progressive formation of a dust mantle explaining the shallow dependence of gas production rates, which may be partially blown off during the outburst. We studied the evolution of gas composition, using various ratios such as CN/OH, $\mathrm{C_2}$/OH, or $\mathrm{C_3}$/OH, which showed little or no variation with heliocentric distance including at the time of the outburst. This indicates a relative level of homogeneity of the nucleus composition. [less ▲]Detailed reference viewed: 24 (6 ULg) New and updated convex shape models of asteroids based on optical data from a large collaboration networkHanuš, J.; Ďurech, J.; Oszkiewicz, D. A. et alE-print/Working paper (2015)Asteroid modeling efforts in the last decade resulted in a comprehensive dataset of almost 400 convex shape models and their rotation states. This amount already provided a deep insight into physical ... [more ▼]Asteroid modeling efforts in the last decade resulted in a comprehensive dataset of almost 400 convex shape models and their rotation states. This amount already provided a deep insight into physical properties of main-belt asteroids or large collisional families. We aim to increase the number of asteroid shape models and rotation states. Such results are an important input for various further studies such as analysis of asteroid physical properties in different populations, including smaller collisional families, thermophysical modeling, and scaling shape models by disk-resolved images, or stellar occultation data. This provides, in combination with known masses, bulk density estimates, but constrains also theoretical collisional and evolutional models of the Solar System. We use all available disk-integrated optical data (i.e., classical dense-in-time photometry obtained from public databases and through a large collaboration network as well as sparse-in-time individual measurements from a few sky surveys) as an input for the convex inversion method, and derive 3D shape models of asteroids, together with their rotation periods and orientations of rotation axes. The key ingredient is the support of more that one hundred observers who submit their optical data to publicly available databases. We present updated shape models for 36 asteroids, for which mass estimates are currently available in the literature or their masses will be most likely determined from their gravitational influence on smaller bodies, which orbital deflection will be observed by the ESA Gaia astrometric mission. This was achieved by using additional optical data from recent apparitions for the shape optimization. Moreover, we also present new shape model determinations for 250 asteroids, including 13 Hungarias and 3 near-Earth asteroids. [less ▲]Detailed reference viewed: 34 (8 ULg) Characterization of the K2-19 Multiple-Transiting Planetary System via High-Dispersion Spectroscopy, AO Imaging, and Transit Timing VariationsNarita, Norio; Hirano, Teruyuki; Fukui, Akihiko et alE-print/Working paper (2015)K2-19 (EPIC201505350) is an interesting planetary system in which two transiting planets with radii ~ 7 $R_{Earth}$ (inner planet b) and ~ 4 $R_{Earth}$ (outer planet c) have orbits that are nearly in a 3 ... [more ▼]K2-19 (EPIC201505350) is an interesting planetary system in which two transiting planets with radii ~ 7 $R_{Earth}$ (inner planet b) and ~ 4 $R_{Earth}$ (outer planet c) have orbits that are nearly in a 3:2 mean-motion resonance. Here, we present results of ground-based follow-up observations for the K2-19 planetary system. We have performed high-dispersion spectroscopy and high-contrast adaptive-optics imaging of the host star with the HDS and HiCIAO on the Subaru 8.2m telescope. We find that the host star is relatively old (>8 Gyr) late G-type star ($T_{eff}$ ~ 5350 K, $M_s$ ~ 0.9 $M_{Sun}$, and $R_{s}$ ~ 0.9 $R_{Sun}$). We do not find any contaminating faint objects near the host star which could be responsible for (or dilute) the transit signals. We have also conducted transit follow-up photometry for the inner planet with KeplerCam on the FLWO 1.2m telescope, TRAPPISTCAM on the TRAPPIST 0.6m telescope, and MuSCAT on the OAO 1.88m telescope. We confirm the presence of transit-timing variations, as previously reported by Armstrong and coworkers. We model the observed transit-timing variations of the inner planet using the synodic chopping formulae given by Deck & Agol (2015). We find two statistically indistinguishable solutions for which the period ratios ($P_{c}/P_{b}$) are located slightly above and below the exact 3:2 commensurability. Despite the degeneracy, we derive the orbital period of the inner planet $P_b$ ~ 7.921 days and the mass of the outer planet $M_c$ ~ 20 $M_{Earth}$. Additional transit photometry (especially for the outer planet) as well as precise radial-velocity measurements would be helpful to break the degeneracy and to determine the mass of the inner planet. [less ▲]Detailed reference viewed: 22 (2 ULg) The HARPS search for southern extra-solar planets. XXXVIII. Bayesian re-analysis of three systems. New super-Earths, unconfirmed signals, and magnetic cyclesDíaz, R. F.; Ségransan, D.; Udry, S. et alE-print/Working paper (2015)We present the analysis of the entire HARPS observations of three stars that host planetary systems: HD1461, HD40307, and HD204313. The data set spans eight years and contains more than 200 nightly ... [more ▼]We present the analysis of the entire HARPS observations of three stars that host planetary systems: HD1461, HD40307, and HD204313. The data set spans eight years and contains more than 200 nightly averaged velocity measurements for each star. This means that it is sensitive to both long-period and low-mass planets and also to the effects induced by stellar activity cycles. We modelled the data using Keplerian functions that correspond to planetary candidates and included the short- and long-term effects of magnetic activity. A Bayesian approach was taken both for the data modelling, which allowed us to include information from activity proxies such as $\log{(R'_{\rm HK})}$ in the velocity modelling, and for the model selection, which permitted determining the number of significant signals in the system. The Bayesian model comparison overcomes the limitations inherent to the traditional periodogram analysis. We report an additional super-Earth planet in the HD1461 system. Four out of the six planets previously reported for HD40307 are confirmed and characterised. We discuss the remaining two proposed signals. In particular, we show that when the systematic uncertainty associated with the techniques for estimating model probabilities are taken into account, the current data are not conclusive concerning the existence of the habitable-zone candidate HD40307 g. We also fully characterise the Neptune-mass planet that orbits HD204313 in 34.9 days. [less ▲]Detailed reference viewed: 19 (0 ULg) Re-Pricing Through Disruption in Oligopolies with Tacit Collusion: A Framework for Abuse of Collective DominancePetit, Nicolas E-print/Working paper (2015)Detailed reference viewed: 18 (1 ULg) Le syndrome coup de sangCourouce-Malblanc, Anne; Daix, Charlène; Ferry, Bénédicte et alE-print/Working paper (2015)Le coup de sang est un terme utilisé pour nommer une myopathie brutale consécutive à un exercice qui se manifeste cliniquement par des crampes douloureuses et une urine de couleur anormalement foncée du ... [more ▼]Le coup de sang est un terme utilisé pour nommer une myopathie brutale consécutive à un exercice qui se manifeste cliniquement par des crampes douloureuses et une urine de couleur anormalement foncée du fait de l’élimination de la myoglobine des cellules musculaires détruites (myoglobinurie). [less ▲]Detailed reference viewed: 7 (1 ULg) Ceci n’est pas un conseil !Choffray, Jean-Marie E-print/Working paper (2015)La « Grande Récession de 2008 » a un mérite. Un seul ! Elle a rendu public le fait que personne ne savait exactement ce qui s’était passé, ni ce qui se passait. Pourquoi une telle crise de confiance avait ... [more ▼]La « Grande Récession de 2008 » a un mérite. Un seul ! Elle a rendu public le fait que personne ne savait exactement ce qui s’était passé, ni ce qui se passait. Pourquoi une telle crise de confiance avait-elle vu le jour ? Quelles en seraient les conséquences ? Toutes et tous se sont trompés, y compris les meilleurs. Même celles et ceux qui étaient convaincus d’avoir raison ! Plus que jamais, l’incertitude, la saine et souveraine incertitude, garantit la liberté de l’investisseur... et du professeur ! [less ▲]Detailed reference viewed: 1984 (124 ULg) Markets flash graphsChoffray, Jean-Marie E-print/Working paper (2015)A graph is worth a hundred words... A good graph may suggest some new heuristics. And…, a series of excellent graphs may provide the backbone of a theory! The goal of this paper is to share a set of ... [more ▼]A graph is worth a hundred words... A good graph may suggest some new heuristics. And…, a series of excellent graphs may provide the backbone of a theory! The goal of this paper is to share a set of graphs from multiple sources that offer as many flashes on current and past market conditions. Inevitably, these graphs reflect my own biases and questionings. They are not meant to induce any action aside, maybe, from their integration in a personal Information System. The Great Recession of 2008, whose consequences are still unfolding, has been for each of us a powerful invitation to modesty. We live in a world where improbable, unthinkable and impossible events happen every day... More than ever, it’s time to sit down, shut up, watch out, build graphs, and think… hard! [less ▲]Detailed reference viewed: 214 (30 ULg) Institutional repositories: it’s a matter of sticks and carrotsRentier, Bernard E-print/Working paper (2015)Detailed reference viewed: 239 (10 ULg) Will Big Data Deliver its Promised Productivity Growth?Artige, Lionel E-print/Working paper (2015)Detailed reference viewed: 44 (0 ULg) WASP-120b, WASP-122b and WASP-123b: Three newly discovered planets from the WASP-South surveyTurner, O. D.; Anderson, D. R.; Collier Cameron, A. et alE-print/Working paper (2015)We present the discovery by the WASP-South survey of three planets transiting moderately bright stars (V ~ 11). WASP-120b is a massive (5.0MJup) planet in a 3.6-day orbit that we find likely to be ... [more ▼]We present the discovery by the WASP-South survey of three planets transiting moderately bright stars (V ~ 11). WASP-120b is a massive (5.0MJup) planet in a 3.6-day orbit that we find likely to be eccentric (e = 0.059+0.025-0.018) around an F5 star. WASP-122b is a hot-Jupiter (1.37MJup, 1.79RJup) in a 1.7-day orbit about a G4 star. Our predicted transit depth variation cause by the atmosphere of WASP-122b suggests it is well suited to characterisation. WASP-123b is a hot-Jupiter (0.92MJup, 1.33RJup) in a 3.0-day orbit around an old (~ 7 Gyr) G5 star. [less ▲]Detailed reference viewed: 10 (0 ULg) Blues et Wallon - Elmore D, l'intégrale cåzî complète en cinq CDsSacré, Robert E-print/Working paper (2015)Analyse d'une anthologie de 5 Cds représentant l'intégrale" cåzî "complète des enregsitrements d'Elmore D ( Prof. Daniel Droixhe) pour la compagnie française FREMEAUX et ASS.Detailed reference viewed: 32 (0 ULg) Dans le dédale des Musiques Africaines-AméricainesSacré, Robert E-print/Working paper (2015)Notes du cours " Histoire des Musiques Africaines Américaines, des origines à nos jours" (remise à jour 2015) - cours dispensé depuis 1984Detailed reference viewed: 25 (4 ULg) Le Gevarenwinkel Festival de HerseltSacré, Robert E-print/Working paper (2015)Compte rendu du Festival Gevarenwinkel à HERSELT les 28 et 29 août 2015 , avec photosDetailed reference viewed: 192 (3 ULg) Diversité des expressions et numérique: du constat à l'action?Vlassis, Antonios E-print/Working paper (2015)Antonios Vlassis nous livre un compte-rendu des débats de la dernière Conférence des Parties à la Convention sur la protection et la promotion de la diversité des expressions culturelles (CDEC) en ... [more ▼]Antonios Vlassis nous livre un compte-rendu des débats de la dernière Conférence des Parties à la Convention sur la protection et la promotion de la diversité des expressions culturelles (CDEC) en analysant précisément les enjeux liés au numérique et en décortiquant les prises de position exprimées par différents acteurs. [less ▲]Detailed reference viewed: 15 (3 ULg) Observing Jupiter’s polar stratospheric haze with HST/STIS. An HST White PaperGrodent, Denis ; Bonfond, Bertrand ; Nichols, Jonathan D.E-print/Working paper (2015)The purpose of this HST white paper is to demonstrate that it is possible to monitor Jupiter’s polar haze with HST/STIS without breaking the ground screening limit for bright objects. This demonstration ... [more ▼]The purpose of this HST white paper is to demonstrate that it is possible to monitor Jupiter’s polar haze with HST/STIS without breaking the ground screening limit for bright objects. This demonstration rests on a thorough simulation of STIS output from an existing image obtained with HST/WFPC2. It is shown that the STIS NUV-MAMA + F25CIII filter assembly provides a count rate per pixel ~11 times smaller than that obtained for one pixel of WFPC2 WF3 CCD + F218W corresponding filter. This ratio is sufficiently large to cope with the bright solar light scattered by Jupiter’s atmosphere, which was a lesser concern for WFPC2 CCD safety. These STIS images would provide unprecedented spatial and temporal resolution observations of small-scale stratospheric aerosol structures, possibly associated with Jupiter’s complex FUV aurora. [less ▲]Detailed reference viewed: 12 (0 ULg) Gouvy Jazz & Blues Festival Août 2015Sacré, Robert E-print/Working paper (2015)Compte rendu du festival BLUES avec photosDetailed reference viewed: 254 (0 ULg) Colère des agriculteurs, à qui la faute?Habran, Maxime E-print/Working paper (2015)Depuis le début de l’été, la colère gronde du côté des agriculteurs et pour cause, les prix du lait et de la viande ont atteint des seuils dangereusement bas. Que ce soit en France ou en Belgique, le ... [more ▼]Depuis le début de l’été, la colère gronde du côté des agriculteurs et pour cause, les prix du lait et de la viande ont atteint des seuils dangereusement bas. Que ce soit en France ou en Belgique, le combat est le même. Les agriculteurs veulent des prix plus élevés pour la viande et pour le lait car actuellement ceux-ci sont inférieurs aux coûts de production. Cette note a pour objectif de répondre à trois questions : d’où vient la crise, quelles sont les solutions et les mesures prises sont-elles suffisantes ? [less ▲]Detailed reference viewed: 184 (10 ULg) La gestation chez les petits camélidés d'Amérique du Sud : physiologie, constat et pathologieHanzen, Christian ; Cucho Dolmos, Hernan; Ampuero Casquino, Enrique et alE-print/Working paper (2015)Detailed reference viewed: 22 (2 ULg) Does formal child care availability for 0-3 year olds boost mothers' employment rate? Panel data based evidence from BelgiumDujardin, Claire; Fonder, Muriel; Lejeune, Bernard E-print/Working paper (2015)In 2003, a new multi-annual program aimed at increasing the availability of formal child care for 0-3 year old children was launched in Wallonia, the French-speaking part of Belgium. This paper is ... [more ▼]In 2003, a new multi-annual program aimed at increasing the availability of formal child care for 0-3 year old children was launched in Wallonia, the French-speaking part of Belgium. This paper is interested in evaluating if this increased availability of formal child care resulted in a higher employment rate for women with at least one child under 3. To this end, we use a difference-in-differences approach based on municipality-level panel data, taking advantage of the fact that the increase in availability of formal child care differed greatly across municipalities. We find that the raise in child care availability significantly increased the maternal employment rate, but to a lesser extent than expected, most likely because of a substantial crowding-out effect. [less ▲]Detailed reference viewed: 129 (7 ULg) The French language runs throughout the worldMorato, Nicola ; Gaunt, SimonE-print/Working paper (2015)Detailed reference viewed: 38 (3 ULg) From Constrained Delaunay Triangulations to Roadmap Graphs with Arbitrary ClearanceLens, Stéphane ; Boigelot, Bernard E-print/Working paper (2015)This work studies path planning in two-dimensional space, in the presence of polygonal obstacles. We specifically address the problem of building a roadmap graph, that is, an abstract representation of ... [more ▼]This work studies path planning in two-dimensional space, in the presence of polygonal obstacles. We specifically address the problem of building a roadmap graph, that is, an abstract representation of all the paths that can potentially be followed around a given set of obstacles. Our solution consists in an original refinement algorithm for constrained Delaunay triangulations, aimed at generating a roadmap graph suited for planning paths with arbitrary clearance. In other words, a minimum distance to the obstacles can be specified, and the graph does not have to be recomputed if this distance is modified. Compared to other solutions, our approach has the advantage of being simpler, as well as significantly more efficient. [less ▲]Detailed reference viewed: 9 (3 ULg) Les biotechnologies de la reproduction des petits camélidés sud-américainsHanzen, Christian ; Cucho Dolmo, Hernan; Ampuero Casquino, Enrique et alE-print/Working paper (2015)Detailed reference viewed: 25 (2 ULg) Garantir la légalité et assurer la traçabilité. Deux piliers de la mise en oeuvre de l'APV-FLEGT.Moumbogou, Carl; Meunier, Quentin; Bracke, Charles et alE-print/Working paper (2015)Detailed reference viewed: 116 (5 ULg) Les forêts communautaires et l'APV-FLEGT au GabonMoumbogou, Carl; Meunier, Quentin; Mvou Biyogo, T. et alE-print/Working paper (2015)Promu par l’Union européenne depuis 2003, le plan d’action FLEGT propose une approche novatrice de lutte contre l’exploitation illégale des forêts, en établissant un lien entre l’amélioration de la ... [more ▼]Promu par l’Union européenne depuis 2003, le plan d’action FLEGT propose une approche novatrice de lutte contre l’exploitation illégale des forêts, en établissant un lien entre l’amélioration de la gouvernance dans les pays producteurs et l’accès au marché de l’UE. Ce plan concerne tous les titres forestiers, dont les forêts communautaires. Ces dernières ont été désignées au Gabon comme source légale de bois à la faveur des négociations d’un APVFLEGT avec l’UE. Dès lors, et afin de stabiliser le système qui sera mis en place, il est nécessaire de préparer des outils adaptés permettant d’articuler le FLEGT et les forêts communautaires. [less ▲]Detailed reference viewed: 47 (4 ULg) Implications of Competitive Neutrality for Competition Agencies: A Process PerspectivePetit, Nicolas E-print/Working paper (2015)Detailed reference viewed: 8 (1 ULg) Bayesian inference in an extended SEIR model with nonparametric disease transmission rate: an application to the Ebola epidemic in Sierra LeoneFrasso, Gianluca ; Lambert, Philippe E-print/Working paper (2015)The 2014 Ebola outbreak in Sierra Leone is analyzed using an extension of the SEIR compartmental model. The unknown parameters of the system of differential equations are estimated by combining data on ... [more ▼]The 2014 Ebola outbreak in Sierra Leone is analyzed using an extension of the SEIR compartmental model. The unknown parameters of the system of differential equations are estimated by combining data on the number of new (laboratory confirmed) Ebola cases reported by the Ministry of Health and prior distributions for the transition rates elicited using information collected by the WHO Response Team (2014) during the follow-up of specific Ebola cases. The evolution over time of the disease transmission rate is modeled nonparametrically using penalized B-splines. Our framework represents a valuable and robust stochastic tool for the study of an epidemic dynamic from irregular and possibly aggregated case data. Simulations and the analysis of the 2014 Sierra Leone Ebola data highlight the merits of the proposed methodology. [less ▲]Detailed reference viewed: 105 (34 ULg) Le cycle sexuel de la femelle des petits camélidés sud-américainsHanzen, Christian ; Cucho Dolmos, Hernan; Ampuero Casquino, Enrique et alE-print/Working paper (2015)Detailed reference viewed: 29 (0 ULg) Variability in the super-Earth 55 Cnc eDemory, Brice-Olivier; Gillon, Michaël ; Madhusudhan, Nikku et alE-print/Working paper (2015)Considerable progress has been made in recent years in observations of atmospheric signatures of giant exoplanets, but processes in rocky exoplanets remain largely unknown due to major challenges in ... [more ▼]Considerable progress has been made in recent years in observations of atmospheric signatures of giant exoplanets, but processes in rocky exoplanets remain largely unknown due to major challenges in observing small planets. Numerous efforts to observe spectra of super-Earths, exoplanets with masses of 1-10 Earth masses, have thus far revealed only featureless spectra. In this paper we report a 4-$\sigma$ detection of variability in the dayside thermal emission from the transiting super-Earth 55 Cancri e. Dedicated space-based monitoring of the planet in the mid-infrared over eight eclipses revealed the thermal emission from its dayside atmosphere varying by a factor 3.7 between 2012 and 2013. The amplitude and trend of the variability are not explained by potential influence of star spots or by local thermal or compositional changes in the atmosphere over the short span of the observations. The possibility of large scale surface activity due to strong tidal interactions possibly similar to Io, or the presence of circumstellar/circumplanetary material appear plausible and motivate future long-term monitoring of the planet. [less ▲]Detailed reference viewed: 22 (1 ULg) AuraDurand, Pascal E-print/Working paper (2015)Entrée du Lexique Socius sur le concept d'Aura chez Walter BenjaminDetailed reference viewed: 109 (11 ULg) L'Union européenne et les expressions culturelles à l'ère numérique : l'intégration négative par defaut?Vlassis, Antonios E-print/Working paper (2015)Detailed reference viewed: 49 (5 ULg) Anatomie de l'appareil génital femelle des petits camélidés sud-américainsHanzen, Christian ; Cucho Dolmos, Hernan; Amupero Casquino, Enrique et alE-print/Working paper (2015)Detailed reference viewed: 17 (0 ULg) Optimal Enforcement of Competition Policy: The Commitments Procedure under UncertaintyGautier, Axel ; Petit, Nicolas E-print/Working paper (2015)Since the introduction of a commitments procedure in EU antitrust policy (Article 9 of Council Regulation 1/2003), the European Commission has extensively settled cases of alleged anticompetitive ... [more ▼]Since the introduction of a commitments procedure in EU antitrust policy (Article 9 of Council Regulation 1/2003), the European Commission has extensively settled cases of alleged anticompetitive practices. In this paper, we use a formal model of law enforcement (Bebchuk, 1984; Shavell, 1988) to identify the optimal procedure to resolve cases in a context of uncertainty related to the law (L-uncertainty) and to the facts (F-uncertainty). We show that commitments are suboptimal when L-uncertainty is high. Furthermore, the generalized use of commitments creates an additional risk of under-enforcement when F-uncertainty is significant. [less ▲]Detailed reference viewed: 35 (4 ULg) Theories of Self-Preferencing Under Article 102 TFEU: A Reply to Bo VesterdorfPetit, Nicolas E-print/Working paper (2015)Detailed reference viewed: 15 (2 ULg) Passeport santé pour bananierMassart, Sébastien E-print/Working paper (2015)Detailed reference viewed: 23 (2 ULg) Les droits fondamentaux, une substance malléable pour le juge? Propos sur la "dématérialisation" des droits fondamentauxRosoux, Géraldine E-print/Working paper (2015)Ce texte contient un résumé de la thèse de doctorat de l'auteur; il est disponible en ligne: http://www.justice-en-ligne.be/article706.html.Detailed reference viewed: 41 (10 ULg) The crucial role of HST during the NASA Juno mission: a “Juno initiative”Grodent, Denis ; Bonfond, Bertrand ; Gérard, Jean-Claude et alE-print/Working paper (2015)In 2016, the NASA Juno spacecraft will initiate its one-year mission around Jupiter and become the first probe to explore the polar regions of Jupiter. The HST UV instruments (STIS and ACS) can greatly ... [more ▼]In 2016, the NASA Juno spacecraft will initiate its one-year mission around Jupiter and become the first probe to explore the polar regions of Jupiter. The HST UV instruments (STIS and ACS) can greatly contribute to the success of the Juno mission by providing key complementary views of Jupiter’s UV aurora from Earth orbit. Juno carries an ultraviolet Spectrograph (UVS) and an infrared spectral mapper (JIRAM) that will obtain high-resolution spectral images providing the auroral counterpart to Juno’s in situ particles and fields measurements with the plasma JADE and JEDI particle detectors. The Juno mission will be the first opportunity to measure simultaneously the energetic particles at high latitude and the auroral emissions they produce. Following programmatic and technical limitations, the amount of UVS data transmitted to Earth will be severely restricted. Therefore, it is of extreme importance that HST captures as much additional information as possible on Jupiter’s UV aurora during the one-year life of the Juno mission. This white paper is a plea for a “Juno initiative” that will ensure that a sufficient number of orbits is allocated to this unique solar system mission. [less ▲]Detailed reference viewed: 18 (1 ULg) Approche agroforestière. Synthèse des travaux menés par le projet DACEFI2 en agroforesterie. Document de capitalisation.Boldrini, Sylvie; Meunier, Quentin; Boukouendji, Basile et alE-print/Working paper (2015)Le projet DACEFI-2 a eu pour mission première la promotion de la foresterie communautaire comme outil de développement des communautés rurales. L’approche au Gabon en matière de gestion des terroirs ... [more ▼]Le projet DACEFI-2 a eu pour mission première la promotion de la foresterie communautaire comme outil de développement des communautés rurales. L’approche au Gabon en matière de gestion des terroirs villageois s’est voulue plus embrassante, promouvant en sus de l’exploitation forestière des activités comme l’agriculture, le maraîchage, la collecte des produits forestiers non ligneux ou encore l’agroforesterie. L’agroforesterie est une thématique qui converge parfaitement avec la gestion raisonnée de la forêt, et idéalement avec les modes d’interaction préexistants des villageois avec celle-ci. Concilier dans un même espace la culture de plantes vivrières et l’accès à des arbres à fort intérêt socio-économique apporte une plus-value notoire aux parcelles cultivées. L’optimisation des techniques culturales permet une meilleure productivité et une incitation à la sédentarisation des cultures, élément important à considérer compte tenu des difficultés d’entretien des parcelles éloignées du village (notamment liées aux dégâts causés par les animaux). Ce recueil compile les travaux réalisés en agroforesterie par les équipes du projet DACEFI-2. Il rappelle la stratégie d’intervention et les différentes activités menées, de la sensibilisation auprès des plus jeunes à la promotion de certains produits forestiers non ligneux à potentiel économique avéré. La promotion de l’arbre, de la récolte de la graine jusqu’à sa plantation en passant par sa mise en pépinière aura également animé toute l’équipe durant ces années d’exercice, afin de faire un peu plus valoir ses multiples intérêts et susciter les efforts de gestion, de conservation et de reboisement. [less ▲]Detailed reference viewed: 83 (8 ULg) Access to Electoral Rights BoliviaZegada, Maria Teresa; Lafleur, Jean-Michel E-print/Working paper (2015)The issue of passive and active electoral rights in Bolivia has gone through various phases that are examined in details in this article. Universal suffrage in Bolivia occurred around the same time as in ... [more ▼]The issue of passive and active electoral rights in Bolivia has gone through various phases that are examined in details in this article. Universal suffrage in Bolivia occurred around the same time as in most states in that region: in the middle of the 20th century. The next wave of reforms occurred during the 1980s when dictatorships were removed from power. At that time, processes of democratization intensified in Bolivia and other parts of Latin America, eventually leading to the progressive strengthening of democratic institutions. It is really during the 1990s and early 2000s that the most important democratic transformations occurred. Major institutional reforms were passed during this period in particular to increase the participation of women and indigenous peoples in public affairs. The inclusion of the principles of gender equality and interculturality in the new constitution of 2009 is one of the clearest sign of this new approach. Similarly, another sector of the Bolivian population that had been traditionally prevented from exercising political rights. that is, Bolivians residing abroad have been closely attended to by the Evo Morales government since 2006. After the first external voting experience in 2009, the system was once again reformed to enable greater participation from abroad in the 2014 presidential election. These elements confirm that the extension of political rights in Bolivia is a process that has gone trough major changes over the past two decades but remains a work in process. [less ▲]Detailed reference viewed: 30 (0 ULg) Efficient Path Interpolation and Speed Profile Computation for Nonholonomic Mobile RobotsLens, Stéphane ; Boigelot, Bernard E-print/Working paper (2015)This paper studies path synthesis for nonholonomic mobile robots moving in two-dimensional space. We first address the problem of interpolating paths expressed as sequences of straight line segments, such ... [more ▼]This paper studies path synthesis for nonholonomic mobile robots moving in two-dimensional space. We first address the problem of interpolating paths expressed as sequences of straight line segments, such as those produced by some planning algorithms, into smooth curves that can be followed without stopping. Our solution has the advantage of being simpler than other existing approaches, and has a low computational cost that allows a real-time implementation. It produces discretized paths on which curvature and variation of curvature are bounded at all points, and preserves obstacle clearance. Then, we consider the problem of computing a time-optimal speed profile for such paths. We introduce an algorithm that solves this problem in linear time, and that is able to take into account a broader class of physical constraints than other solutions. Our contributions have been implemented and evaluated in the framework of the Eurobot contest. [less ▲]Detailed reference viewed: 44 (16 ULg) La culture dans l'agenda post-2015: de la mobilisation internationale à l'inclusion modeste?Vlassis, Antonios E-print/Working paper (2015)Detailed reference viewed: 30 (1 ULg) Prélèvement, analyse et conservation du sperme du mâle des petits camélidés sud-américainsHanzen, Christian ; Cucho Dolmos, Hernan; Ampuero Casquino, Enrique et alE-print/Working paper (2015)Detailed reference viewed: 18 (0 ULg) Some misunderstood or unknown tricks (XIII) (LaTeX)Merciadri, Luca E-print/Working paper (2015)We will here again consider many tips and tricks. This time, they will mostly come from Glad Deschrijver, TeX Tricks, 2011. (http://users.ugent.be/~gdschrij/LaTeX/textricks.html.) Tricks: vertically ... [more ▼]We will here again consider many tips and tricks. This time, they will mostly come from Glad Deschrijver, TeX Tricks, 2011. (http://users.ugent.be/~gdschrij/LaTeX/textricks.html.) Tricks: vertically aligned itemize environments, allowing linebreaks after comma in math mode, writing under and over elements, and using stacks, footnotes with a new number at each section, footnotes in tabular, splitting algorithm environments on multiple pages, let " produce opening/closing quotation marks, indenting some text but not the first line, using diagonal dots positioned according to the opposite diagonal, using a centered verbatim environment, drawing a table with dashed lines, shaded cells and arrows pointing at a row and a column, correct spacing around square brackets (used for sets) in math mode. [less ▲]Detailed reference viewed: 12 (1 ULg)