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See detailAssessing the impacts of technical uncertainty on coupled surface/subsurface flow model predictions using a complex synthetic case
Wildemeersch, Samuel ULg; Goderniaux, Pascal ULg; Orban, Philippe ULg et al

Poster (2011, September)

According to the EU Water Framework Directive, Member States have to manage surface water and groundwater at the water body scale and in an integrated way. Flow and transport models constitute useful ... [more ▼]

According to the EU Water Framework Directive, Member States have to manage surface water and groundwater at the water body scale and in an integrated way. Flow and transport models constitute useful management tools in this context since they can predict system responses to future stresses. However, numerical modelling at such a scale faces specific issues linked to (1) the representation of the geological and hydrogeological complexity, (2) the uneven level of characterisation knowledge, (3) the representativity of measured parameters and variables in the field, and (4) the CPU time needed for solving the numerical problem. Assumptions and simplifications made for dealing with these issues can lead to a series of models differing by their complexity and by the reliability of their predictions. Consequently, modellers have to find a compromise between complexity and reliability. The main objective of this research is to estimate the impacts of technical uncertainty, which is the uncertainty related to the numerical implementation, on groundwater flow model predictions. To reach that objective, the methodology consists in comparing reference predictions (hydraulic heads and flow rates) of a complex and close to reality synthetic case with the predictions provided by a series of simplified models (coarse spatial discretisation, coarse time discretisation, simplified law in the unsaturated zone). The synthetic case reflects the main characteristics found in groundwater bodies of South Belgium (Condroz region of Wallonia), characterised by a succession of limestone synclines and sandstone anticlines. The numerical model is developed with the fully-integrated surface/subsurface flow and transport code HydroGeoSphere using a mesh refined along the surface water network (153027 nodes and 269872 elements). A 5-year reference transient simulation, with daily stress factors is performed. The simulated hydraulic heads and flow rates constitute the reference observations and predictions for the comparison with the simplified models. The simplified models tested differ by their horizontal (500 m vs. 1000 m element size) and vertical (8 layers vs. 3 layers) spatial discretisations, their time discretisation (daily vs. monthly stress factors), and the type of constitutive law used for simulating the unsaturated flow (linear vs. van Genuchten). The models are run with the same parameter values than those used in the reference model to evaluate the deterioration in model predictions due to technical uncertainty. Additionally, some of the models are calibrated with the inverse modelling code PEST to distinguish how far a model calibration can possibly compensate for technical uncertainty. Then, predictions from each simplified model are compared with the reference predictions of the synthetic case. Then, the simplified models are ranked using several model performance criteria. Results of this research provide guidelines for the numerical implementation of groundwater flow models at the water body scale with respect to specific groundwater management objectives. [less ▲]

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See detailAssessing the influence of crop management strategies on the distribution of soil water content by ERT
Chelin, Marie ULg; Parvin, Nargish ULg; Hiel, Marie-Pierre ULg et al

Poster (2013, December 20)

Amongst other functions, cover crops are known to increase the stability of the soil structure. Commonly, their suppression is realized by using conventional tillage, but that it has been demonstrated to ... [more ▼]

Amongst other functions, cover crops are known to increase the stability of the soil structure. Commonly, their suppression is realized by using conventional tillage, but that it has been demonstrated to damage the soil structure, which directly impacts the soil water content. The proposed alternatives vary in terms of date, depth and type of tillage. As the soil water content is a major factor in agriculture, it is essential to better understand the influence of the cover crop management on its spatio-temporal distribution. Recent studies demonstrated the relevancy of the electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) to estimate the three-dimensional soil water content distribution. However, only a few of them were performed under field conditions. This study aims at (i) validating the use of the ERT method to estimate the soil water content distribution under field conditions (ii) quantifying the influence of cover crop management on the dynamic of soil water content along the growing season of a maize crop and on Belgian soil types. Three types of cover crop management content will be daily monitored: strip tillage, spring tillage and winter tillage. In order to assess the impact of plants on the soil water distribution, an additional plot will be burned after winter tillage. ERT will be used on a surface of 2 m² for each cover crop management. The validation of the average soil water content will be attended by using Time Domain Reflectrometers (TDR) and suction cups. The water stock obtained by ERT will be validated by using data from a weather station for the estimation of the evapotranspiration and rainfall and minirhizotrons for the assessment of the root water uptake. [less ▲]

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See detailAssessing the ligand properties of 1,3-dimesitylbenzimidazol-2-ylidene in ruthenium-catalyzed olefin metathesis
Borguet, Yannick ULg; Zaragoza, Guillermo; Demonceau, Albert ULg et al

in Dalton Transactions (2013), 42(20), 7287-7296

The deprotonation of 1,3-dimesitylbenzimidazolium tetrafluoroborate with a strong base afforded 1,3-dimesitylbenzimidazol-2-ylidene (BMes), which was further reacted in situ with rhodium or ruthenium ... [more ▼]

The deprotonation of 1,3-dimesitylbenzimidazolium tetrafluoroborate with a strong base afforded 1,3-dimesitylbenzimidazol-2-ylidene (BMes), which was further reacted in situ with rhodium or ruthenium complexes to afford three new organometallic products. The compounds [RhCl(COD)(BMes)] (COD is 1,5-cyclooctadiene) and cis-[RhCl(CO)2(BMes)] were used to probe the steric and electronic parameters of BMes. Comparison of the percentage of buried volume (%VBur) and of the Tolman electronic parameter (TEP) of BMes with those determined previously for 1,3-dimesitylimidazol-2-ylidene (IMes) and 1,3-dimesitylimidazolin-2-ylidene (SIMes) revealed that the three N-heterocyclic carbenes (NHCs) had very similar profiles. Nonetheless, changes in the hydrocarbon backbone subtly affected the stereoelectronic properties of these ligands. Accordingly, the corresponding [RuCl2(PCy 3)(NHC)(CHPh)] complexes displayed different catalytic behaviors in the ring-closing metathesis (RCM) of α,ω-dienes. In the benchmark cyclization of diethyl 2,2-diallylmalonate, the new [RuCl2(PCy 3)(BMes)(CHPh)] compound (1d) performed slightly better than the Grubbs second-generation catalyst (1a), which was in turn significantly more active than the related [RuCl2(PCy3)(IMes)(CHPh)] initiator (1b). For the formation of a model trisubstituted cycloolefin, complex 1d ranked in-between catalyst precursors 1a and 1b, whereas in the RCM of tetrasubstituted cycloalkenes it lost its catalytic efficiency much more rapidly. [less ▲]

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See detailAssessing the losses of HCFC-22 using ACE-FTS measurements
Kolonjari, F.; Walker, K.A.; Boone, C.D. et al

Scientific conference (2012, November 09)

The annual springtime minimum in stratospheric ozone over the Antarctic is primarily caused by catalytic reactions of ozone and chlorine. The Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer ... [more ▼]

The annual springtime minimum in stratospheric ozone over the Antarctic is primarily caused by catalytic reactions of ozone and chlorine. The Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer (with its subsequent amendments) restricts the emissions of ozone depleting substances. HCFC-22 has been the primary replacement for both CFC-11 and CFC-12, which has led to an increase in its atmospheric abundance. The Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment (ACE) is a mission on-board the Canadian satellite SCISAT. The primary instrument on SCISAT is a highresolution infrared Fourier Transform Spectrometer (ACE-FTS). With its wide spectral range, the ACE-FTS is capable of measuring an extensive range of gases including key CFC and HCFC species. The altitude distribution from the ACE-FTS profiles provides information that is complementary to the ground-based measurements that have been used to monitor these species. The ACE-FTS measurements compare well with surface in situ and balloon measurements. A preliminary validation of HCFC-22 using ground-based FTSs is discussed. The zonal mean distribution of HCFC-22 as observed by ACE-FTS is presented. The global distributions of HCFC-22 have been compared to the Global Modelling Initiative (GMI) Combined Stratospheric-Tropospheric Model, a chemistry and transport model. Large differences between the model and ACE-FTS measurements of HCFC-22 reveal issues with the boundary value mixing ratios. The comparison of stratospheric measurements with GMI suggest that there may be a missing loss process in the stratosphere, some issues with transport circulation and polar cap averaging in the current run, or a combination of the two processes. We propose the reaction of HCFC-22 with atomic chlorine as a potentially important loss process in the lowermost stratosphere and the lower stratosphere. [less ▲]

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See detailAssessing the O2 budget under sea ice: An experimental and modelling approach
Moreau, S.; Kaartokallio, H.; Vancoppenolle, M. et al

in Elementa: Science of the Anthropocene (2015), 3(000080),

The objective of this study was to assess the O2 budget in the water under sea ice combining observations and modelling. Modelling was used to discriminate between physical processes, gas-specific ... [more ▼]

The objective of this study was to assess the O2 budget in the water under sea ice combining observations and modelling. Modelling was used to discriminate between physical processes, gas-specific transport (i.e., ice-atmosphere gas fluxes and gas bubble buoyancy) and bacterial respiration (BR) and to constrain bacterial growth efficiency (BGE). A module describing the changes of the under-ice water properties, due to brine rejection and temperature-dependent BR, was implemented in the one-dimensional halo-thermodynamic sea ice model LIM1D. Our results show that BR was the dominant biogeochemical driver of O2 concentration in the water under ice (in a system without primary producers), followed by gas specific transport. The model suggests that the actual contribution of BR and gas specific transport to the change in seawater O2 concentration was 37% during ice growth and 48% during melt. BGE in the water under sea ice, as retrieved from the simulated O2 budget, was found to be between 0.4 and 0.5, which is in line with published BGE values for cold marine waters. Given the importance of BR to seawater O2 in the present study, it can be assumed that bacteria contribute substantially to organic matter consumption and gas fluxes in ice-covered polar oceans. In addition, we propose a parameterization of polar marine bacterial respiration, based on the strong temperature dependence of bacterial respiration and the high growth efficiency observed here, for further biogeochemical ocean modelling applications, such as regional or large-scale Earth System models [less ▲]

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See detailAssessing the operation rules of a reservoir system based on a detailed modelling chain
Bruwier, Martin ULg; Erpicum, Sébastien ULg; Pirotton, Michel ULg et al

in Natural Hazards & Earth System Sciences (2015), 15

The current operation rules of two muti-purpose reservoirs are analysed based on an integrated model including a hydrological model, a hydraulic model, a model of the reservoir system and a flood damage ... [more ▼]

The current operation rules of two muti-purpose reservoirs are analysed based on an integrated model including a hydrological model, a hydraulic model, a model of the reservoir system and a flood damage model. Five performance indicators have been defined, reflecting the ability to provide drinking water, to control floods, to produce hydropower and to reduce low-flow conditions. Then, impacts of two climate change scenarios are assessed and enhanced operation rules are proposed for mitigation. [less ▲]

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See detailAssessing the passage of obstacles by fish. Concepts, design and application
Baudoin, Jean-Marc; Burgun, Vincent; Chanseau, Matthieu et al

Book published by Onema - Editeur: Véronique Barre (2015)

The fragmentation of habitats has been acknowledged for 30 years as one of the five main factors of biodiversity loss, in conjunction with pollution, overuse of natural resources, invasive species and ... [more ▼]

The fragmentation of habitats has been acknowledged for 30 years as one of the five main factors of biodiversity loss, in conjunction with pollution, overuse of natural resources, invasive species and climate change. Since then, public environmental policies have strived to restore the connectivity of natural habitats. That is particularly the case for water policy, which has made the ecological continuity of rivers a central element in policy planning, a quality element for monitoring programmes and one of the basic guidelines for river-basin management plans (RBMP). The time has thus come for decisions, with the resulting controversy given that any attempt to modify existing discontinuities impacts our perception of landscapes and various uses of aquatic environments. Given that there is, on average, at least one obstacle for every five kilometres of river in continental France, this issue concerns the entire country, its population and all water managers. That explains why it was necessary to have a single set of standardised procedures for selecting the work to be done on the basis of objective and comparable data. For the ecological continuity of fish, we now have the ICE method presented in this book, which describes obstacles in rivers and assesses the capacity of fish to overcome those obstacles during their upstream migration. The design, development and national deployment of this method required five years of intense, collective effort on the part of numerous scientists and the Onema local and regional offices. The method is the result of an outstanding multi-disciplinary approach involving both hydraulics and ecology, two disciplines that some people might see as irreconcilable, but that must work together synergistically in the effort to restore environments. The publication of this book in the Knowledge for action series marks the transition from the team that developed the method to the people who will use it to acquire better understanding of ecological continuity in rivers and as an operational tool in implementing water policy and enhancing biodiversity. [less ▲]

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See detailAssessing the potential of an algorithm based on mean climatic data to predict wheat yield
Dumont, Benjamin ULg; Leemans, Vincent ULg; Ferrandis, Salvador et al

in Precision Agriculture (2014), 15(3)

The real-time non-invasive determination of crop biomass and yield prediction is one of the major challenges in agriculture. An interesting approach lies in using process-based crop yield models in ... [more ▼]

The real-time non-invasive determination of crop biomass and yield prediction is one of the major challenges in agriculture. An interesting approach lies in using process-based crop yield models in combination with real-time monitoring of the input climatic data of these models, but unknown future weather remains the main obstacle to reliable yield prediction. Since accurate weather forecasts can be made only a short time in advance, much information can be derived from analyzing past weather data. This paper presents a methodology that addresses the problem of unknown future weather by using a daily mean climatic database, based exclusively on available past measurements. It involves building climate matrix ensembles, combining different time ranges of projected mean climate data and real measured weather data originating from the historical database or from real-time measurements performed in the field. Used as an input for the STICS crop model, the datasets thus computed were used to perform statistical within-season biomass and yield prediction. This work demonstrated that a reliable predictive delay of 3-4 weeks could be obtained. In combination with a local micrometeorological station that monitors climate data in real-time, the approach also enabled us to (i) predict potential yield at the local level, (ii) detect stress occurrence and (iii) quantify yield loss (or gain) drawing on real monitored climatic conditions of the previous few days. [less ▲]

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See detailAssessing the potential of an algorithm based on mean climatic data to predict wheat yield.
Dumont, Benjamin ULg; Leemans, Vincent ULg; Ferrandis Vallterra, Salvador ULg et al

in Proceedings of the 11th International Conference on Precision Agriculture (2012, July)

Real-time non-invasive determination of crop biomass and yield prediction are maybe among the major challenges in agriculture. But unknown future weather remains the key point of accurate yield forecast ... [more ▼]

Real-time non-invasive determination of crop biomass and yield prediction are maybe among the major challenges in agriculture. But unknown future weather remains the key point of accurate yield forecast. This paper presents the results of a preliminary study that aims to supply the unknown future by daily mean climatic data. The results show that under the Belgian weather, this approach is relevant. Furthermore, the developed methodology appears to be a powerful diagnosis tool of the remaining yield potential under ongoing weather. [less ▲]

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See detailAssessing the potential of calcium-based artificial ocean alkalinization to mitigate rising atmospheric CO2 and ocean acidification
Ilyina, Tatiana; Wolf-Gladrow, Dieter; Munhoven, Guy ULg et al

in Geophysical Research Letters (2013), 40(22), 5909-5914

Enhancement of ocean alkalinity using calcium compounds, e.g., lime has been proposed to mitigate further increase of atmospheric CO2 and ocean acidification due to anthropogenic CO2 emissions. Using a ... [more ▼]

Enhancement of ocean alkalinity using calcium compounds, e.g., lime has been proposed to mitigate further increase of atmospheric CO2 and ocean acidification due to anthropogenic CO2 emissions. Using a global model, we show that such alkalinization has the potential to preserve pH and the saturation state of carbonate minerals at close to today's values. Effects of alkalinization persist after termination: Atmospheric CO2 and pH do not return to unmitigated levels. Only scenarios in which large amounts of alkalinity (i.e., in a ratio of 2:1 with respect to emitted CO2) are added over large ocean areas can boost oceanic CO2 uptake sufficiently to avoid further ocean acidification on the global scale, thereby elevating some key biogeochemical parameters, e.g., pH significantly above preindustrial levels. Smaller-scale alkalinization could counteract ocean acidification on a subregional or even local scale, e.g., in upwelling systems. The decrease of atmospheric CO2 would then be a small side effect. [less ▲]

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See detailAssessing the Potential of Zwitterionic NHC•CS2 Adducts for Probing the Stereoelectronic Parameters of N-Heterocyclic Carbenes
Delaude, Lionel ULg; Demonceau, Albert ULg; Wouters, Johan

in European Journal Of Inorganic Chemistry (2009), (13), 1882-1891

Five imidazol(in)ium-2-dithiocarboxylates bearing cyclohexyl, mesityl, or 2,6-diisopropylphenyl substituents on their nitrogen atoms were prepared from the corresponding N-heterocyclic carbenes (NHCs) by ... [more ▼]

Five imidazol(in)ium-2-dithiocarboxylates bearing cyclohexyl, mesityl, or 2,6-diisopropylphenyl substituents on their nitrogen atoms were prepared from the corresponding N-heterocyclic carbenes (NHCs) by reaction with carbon disulfide. They were characterized by IR, UV/Vis, and NMR spectroscopy, and by thermogravimetric analysis. Their molecular structures were determined by X-ray diffraction. For the sake of comparison, tricyclohexylphosphonium dithiocarboxylate was also examined. The data acquired were scrutinized to evaluate their usefulness for assessing the steric and electronic properties of NHC ligands. Because of their outstanding ability to crystallize, the five NHC center dot CS2 betaines were found to be highly suitable for probing the steric influence of nitrogen atom substituents on imidazolylidene-based ligand precursors via XRD analysis, while the corresponding NHC center dot CO2 adducts were deemed more appropriate for evaluating the sigma-donating properties of carbene ligands. ((c) Wiley-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, 69451 Weinheim, Germany, 2009) [less ▲]

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See detailAssessing the Probability of Training Image-Based Geological Scenarios Using Geophysical Data
Hermans, Thomas ULg; Caers, Jef; Nguyen, Frédéric ULg

in Pardo-Iguzquiza, Eulogio; Guardiola-Albert, Carolina; Heredia, Javier (Eds.) et al Mathematics of Planet Earth - Proceedings of the 15th Annual Conference of the International Association for Mathematical Geosciences (2014)

In multiple-point statistics (MPS), the construction of training im-ages (TIs) is one of the most critical steps. Reliable geological studies may not always be available to depict with certainty what ... [more ▼]

In multiple-point statistics (MPS), the construction of training im-ages (TIs) is one of the most critical steps. Reliable geological studies may not always be available to depict with certainty what geological patterns or heterogeneity are present. In this context, geophysical techniques may provide additional information to reduce the possible large uncertainty in the understanding of prior geological scenarios. To overcome this problem, we developed a methodology to verify the consistency of geophysical data with independently-built TIs representing different plausible geological scenarios. If a TI is deemed consistent with the field geophysical survey, then in a sec-ond step we calculate a likelihood probability for each consistent TI. Our methodology starts by creating subsurface models with each TI. From these models we create synthetic geophysical data and from this synthetic data, synthetic inverted models. These models are now compared with a single inverted model obtained from the field sur-vey, allowing for our definition of what is “consistent”. To that ex-tent, we calculate the Euclidean distance between any two inverted models as well as field data and visualize the results in a 2D or 3D space using multidimensional scaling (MDS). With this technique, it is possible to verify if field cases fall in the distribution represented by synthetic cases, and thus are consistent with them. In a second step, we present a cluster analysis on the MDS-map to highlight which parameters are the most sensitive for the construction of TI. Based on this analysis, a probability of each geological scenario is computed through kernel smoothing of the densities in reduced pro-jected metric space. This approach was tested using electrical resistivity tomography as geophysical data to analyze TI scenarios for the Meuse alluvial aqui-fer (Belgium), where the lack of reliable sedimentological data lead to the definition of a multitude of geological scenarios, hence TIs. [less ▲]

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See detailAssessing the Proximity of Time Evolutions through Dynamic Time Warping
Fabozzi, Davide ULg; Van Cutsem, Thierry ULg

in IET Generation, Transmission & Distribution (2011), 5(12), 1268-1276

Comparing time-series is a frequent task in many scientific fields. In power systems, in particular, it may be of interest to compare the outputs of a simplified and a detailed model, or to validate the ... [more ▼]

Comparing time-series is a frequent task in many scientific fields. In power systems, in particular, it may be of interest to compare the outputs of a simplified and a detailed model, or to validate the output of a model with respect to a measured time response. The classical Euclidean distance, involving pairs of points of the two data series aligned in time, is not suited to the practical time evolutions met in power systems, which often involve variable time delays and jumps at discrete times. In this paper, an alternative measure of proximity, stemming from other scientific fields, is proposed for power system applications. It consists in warping the time axis to guarantee the best match between the two time-series, i.e. it maps points on two curves that are not aligned in time so as to minimize the sum of squared differences of their ordinates. Modifications and adaptations of the classical algorithm to better fit power system problems are discussed. The method is illustrated through three representative curve comparison problems. A multi-dimensional extension allowing system-wide measures of similarity is also proposed. [less ▲]

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See detailAssessing the quality of Experimental Data with Gaussian Processes: Example with an Injection Scroll Compressor
Quoilin, Sylvain ULg; Schrouff, Jessica ULg

in Proceedings of the 2014 Purdue Conferences (2014)

This paper describes an experimental study carried out on a refrigeration scroll compressor with and without vapour injection. The test rig designed for that purposed allows evaluating the performance ... [more ▼]

This paper describes an experimental study carried out on a refrigeration scroll compressor with and without vapour injection. The test rig designed for that purposed allows evaluating the performance over a wide range of operating conditions, by varying the supply pressure, the injection pressure, the discharge pressure, the supply superheating and the injection superheating. 97 Steady-state points are measured, with a maximum isentropic efficiency of 64.1% and a maximum consumed electrical power of 13.1 kW. A critical analysis of the experimental results is then carried out to evaluate the quality of the data using a machine learning method. This method based on Gaussian Processes regression, is used to build a statistical operating map of the compressor as a function of the different inputs. This statistical operating map can then be compared to the experimental data points to evaluate their accuracy. [less ▲]

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See detailAssessing the Quality of Origin-Destination Matrices Derived from Activity Travel Surveys: Results from a Monte Carlo Experiment
Cools, Mario ULg; Moons, Elke; Wets, Geert

in Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board (2010), 2183

To support policy makers combating travel-related externalities, quality data are required for the design and management of transportation systems and policies. To this end, much money has been spent on ... [more ▼]

To support policy makers combating travel-related externalities, quality data are required for the design and management of transportation systems and policies. To this end, much money has been spent on collecting household- and person-based data. The main objective of this paper is to assess the quality of origin-destination (O-D) matrices derived from household activity travel surveys. To this purpose, a Monte Carlo experiment is set up to estimate the precision of O-D matrices given different sampling rates. The Belgian 2001 census data, containing work- and school-related travel information for all 10,296,350 residents, are used for the experiment. For different sampling rates, 2,000 random stratified samples are drawn. For each sample, three O-D matrices are composed: one at the municipality level, one at the district level, and one at the provincial level. The correspondence between the samples and the population is assessed by using the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and a censored version of the MAPE (MCAPE). The results show that no accurate O-D matrices can be derived directly from these surveys. Only when half of the population is queried is an acceptable O-D matrix obtained at the provincial level. Therefore, use of additional information to grasp better the behavioral realism underlying destination choices and collection of information about particular O-D pairs by means of vehicle intercept surveys are recommended. In addition, results suggest using the MCAPE next to traditional criteria to examine dissimilarities between different O-D matrices. An important avenue for further research is the investigation of the effect of sampling proportions on travel demand model outcomes. [less ▲]

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See detailAssessing the Risk of Ecosystem Disruption in Europe using a Dynamic Vegetation Model driven by CMIP5 Regional Climatic Projections from EURO-CORDEX
Dury, Marie ULg; Hambuckers, Alain ULg; Henrot, Alexandra-Jane ULg et al

Conference (2015, December 18)

While the combination of warmer and drier mean climatic conditions can have severe impacts on ecosystems, extreme events like droughts or heat waves that break the gradual climate change can have more ... [more ▼]

While the combination of warmer and drier mean climatic conditions can have severe impacts on ecosystems, extreme events like droughts or heat waves that break the gradual climate change can have more long-term consequences on ecosystem composition, functioning and carbon storage. Hence, it is essential to assess the changes in climatic variability and the changes in frequency of extreme events projected for the future. Ecosystems could not be in a condition to adapt to these new conditions and might be disrupted. Here, the process-based dynamic vegetation model CARAIB DVM was used to evaluate and analyze how future climate and extreme events will affect European ecosystems. To quantify the uncertainties in the climatic projections and in their potential impacts on ecosystems, the vegetation model was driven with the outputs of different regional climatic models (RCMs), nested in CMIP5 GCM projections for the EURO-CORDEX project. We used the ALADIN version 5.3 (Météo-France/CNRM) and other EURO-CORDEX RCMs. These climatic projections are at a high spatial resolution (0.11-degree, ~12 km). CARAIB simulations were performed across Europe over the historical period 1951-2005 and the future period 2006-2100 under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios. We simulated a set of 99 individual species (47 herbs, 12 shrubs and 40 trees) representing the major European ecosystem flora. First, we analyzed the climatic variability simulated by the climatic models over the historical period and compared it with the observed climatic variability. None of these climatic models can reproduce accurately the present natural climatic variability. Then, to assess the risk of ecosystem disruption in the future and to identify the vulnerable areas in Europe, we created an index combining several CARAIB outputs: runoff, mean NPP, soil turnover, burned area, appearance and disappearance of species. We evaluated the severity of change projected for these variables (period 2071-2100) relative to their current variability (period 1961-1990). Mean changes were considered severe if they exceed observed variability. The highest values of the index were found in southern Europe, indicating that the amplitude of the expected ecosystem changes largely exceeds current interannual variability in this area. [less ▲]

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See detailAssessing the role of pore structure and porosity in composite electrodes through model thin film electrode studies
Krins, Natacha ULg; Shukla, Alpesh K.; Milliron, Delia J. et al

Poster (2012)

Detailed reference viewed: 9 (0 ULg)