Risk evaluation of the transmission of the avian influenza virus to humans

in Annales de Médecine Vétérinaire (2004), 148(2), 65-77

Since mid-december 2003, an epizootic of highly pathogenic avian influenza (type A, sub-type H5N1) occurs in eastern and south-eastern Asia. This epizootic is historically unprecedented in its virulence ... [more ▼]

Since mid-december 2003, an epizootic of highly pathogenic avian influenza (type A, sub-type H5N1) occurs in eastern and south-eastern Asia. This epizootic is historically unprecedented in its virulence, geographical spread, and economic consequences for the agricultural sector. Implications for human health were registered in Vietnam and in Thailand. This paper summarizes the current knowledge about the risk evaluation of the transmission of avian influenza virus to humans. The current asian epizootic has highlighted the key role of global health information systems and also the need for exhaustive notification of human and animal cases. It reinforces the concept of veterinary public health. [less ▲]

Risk factors and causes of death in MEN1 disease. A GTE (Groupe d'Etude des Tumeurs Endocrines) cohort study among 758 patients.

in World Journal of Surgery (2010), 34(2), 249-255

Background - The natural history of multiple endocrine neoplasia type 1 (MEN1) is known through single-institution or single-family studies. We aimed to analyze the risk factors and causes of death in a ... [more ▼]

Background - The natural history of multiple endocrine neoplasia type 1 (MEN1) is known through single-institution or single-family studies. We aimed to analyze the risk factors and causes of death in a large cohort of MEN1 patients. Methods - Overall, 758 symptomatic MEN1 patients were identified through the GTE network (Groupe d’étude des Tumeurs Endocrines), which involves French and Belgian genetics laboratories responsible for MEN1 diagnosis and 80 clinical reference centers. The causes of death were analyzed. A frailty model, including time-dependent variables, was used to assess the impact of each clinical lesion, except for hyperparathyroidism, on survival. Results - The median follow-up was 6.3 years. Female gender, family history of MEN1, and recent diagnosis were associated with a lower risk of death. Compared with nonaffected patients, those with thymic tumors (hazard ratio [HR] = 4.64, 95% CI = 1.73-12.41), glucagonomas–vipomas–somatostatinomas (HR = 4.29, 95% CI = 1.54-11.93), nonfunctioning pancreatic tumors (HR = 3.43, 95% CI = 1.71-6.88), and gastrinoma (HR = 1.89, 95% CI = 1.09-3.25) had a higher risk of death after adjustment for age, gender, and diagnosis period. The increased risk of death among patients with adrenal tumors was not significant, but three patients died from aggressive adrenal tumors. Pituitary tumors, insulinomas, and bronchial tumors did not increase the risk of death. The proportion of MEN1-related deaths decreased from 76.8 to 71.4% after 1990. Conclusions - The prognosis of MEN1 disease has improved since 1980. Thymic tumors and duodenopancreatic tumors, including nonsecreting pancreatic tumors, increased the risk of death. Rare but aggressive adrenal tumors may also cause death. Most deaths were related to MEN1. New recommendations on abdominal and thoracic imaging are required. [less ▲]

Risk factors associated with bovine tuberculosis and molecular characterization of Mycobacterium bovis strains in urban settings in Niger

in Transboundary and Emerging Diseases (2012), 59(6), 490-502

Risk factors for first-ever low back pain among workers in their first employment

in Occupational Medicine-Oxford (2004), 54(8), 513-519

Background Low back pain has been estimated to be the most costly ailment of people of working age. Both work characteristics and individual factors have been identified as risk factors. The first ... [more ▼]

Background Low back pain has been estimated to be the most costly ailment of people of working age. Both work characteristics and individual factors have been identified as risk factors. The first interaction between work characteristics and individual factors occurs when workers start in their first job. Aims To investigate work-related risk factors for first-ever low back pain in young workers in their first employment. Methods A cross-sectional analysis was performed on 278 young workers in their first employment and without a history of low back pain prior to working. Work-related physical factors, psychosocial work characteristics, individual variables and first-ever low back pain were queried by means of a questionnaire. Results About half of the workers who developed low back pain after job start did so in the first year of employment. An increased risk was observed for (i) long periods of seated work [relative risk (RR) = 3.2, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.6-6.4]; (ii) more than 12 flexion or rotation movements of the trunk per hour (RR = 3.0, 95% CI = 1.4-6.4); and (iii) more than 3 years seniority in a job involving lifting more than 25 kg at least once an hour (RR = 3.7, 95% CI = 1.4-9.4). As to psychosocial work characteristics, first-ever low back pain was associated with a combination of low psychological job demands and low supervisor support. Conclusion Work-related physical factors and psychosocial work characteristics should be considered as risk factors for first-ever low back pain. First-ever episodes of low back pain are common in the first year of employment. This may reflect a lack of work experience or training. [less ▲]

Risk factors for Salmonella and hygiene indicators in the 10 largest Belgian pig slaughterhouses.

in Journal of Food Protection (2008), 77

A survey was conducted to collect data on Salmonella prevalence, Escherichia coli counts (ECCs), and aerobic bacteria colony counts (ACCs) on pig carcasses after chilling at the 10 largest Belgian pig ... [more ▼]

A survey was conducted to collect data on Salmonella prevalence, Escherichia coli counts (ECCs), and aerobic bacteria colony counts (ACCs) on pig carcasses after chilling at the 10 largest Belgian pig slaughterhouses during 2000 through 2004. Potential risk factors of contamination associated with production parameters, technical descriptions of the installations, and cleaning and disinfection methods were assessed during investigations in the slaughterhouses. These variables were used first in a univariate analysis and then were extended to a multivariate analysis with a logistic mixed regression model for Salmonella and a linear mixed model for ECCs and ACCs with slaughterhouses as the random effect. The results indicated high variability concerning Salmonella contamination among the 10 slaughterhouses, with prevalence ranging from 2.6 to 34.3% according to the area of origin. The median ECC and median ACC ranged from 0.43 to 1.11 log CFU/cm2 and from 2.37 to 3.65 log CFU/cm2, respectively. The results of the logistic and linear regressions revealed that some working practices such as scalding with steam, second flaming after polishing, and complete cleaning and disinfection of the splitting machine several times a day were beneficial for reducing Salmonella prevalence, ECCs, and ACCs. Changing the carcass hooks just before chilling, using water as the cleaning method, and a higher frequency of disinfection of the lairage seemed to be protective against E. coli in the multivariate mixed linear model. The monitoring of critical points, slaughterhouse equipment, good slaughtering practices, and effective washing and disinfection are the keys to obtaining good microbiological results. [less ▲]

Risk Horizon and Equilibrium Asset Prices

Conference (2012, December 18)

Risk Horizon and Expected Market Returns

E-print/Working paper (2012)

The paper proposes an equilibrium asset pricing model that accounts of the incomplete information on returns distribution and investors' preferences. Only moments up to order four of unknown unconditional ... [more ▼]

The paper proposes an equilibrium asset pricing model that accounts of the incomplete information on returns distribution and investors' preferences. Only moments up to order four of unknown unconditional distribution can be observed, and the model does not impose that portfolio diversi fication or moments preference should hold. Using Chebyshev-type of inequalities, an intuitive risk measure (risk horizon) is introduced with reference to the speed of convergence of a security's mean return to its expectations. By an arbitrage argument, this risk measure is related to the horizon of treasury securities in a system of equations that allows the calibration of the model parameters using term structure information. In particular, the expected return on the market portfolio can be endogenously estimated inside this system. The model calibration on U.S. market data provides plausible parameters estimates and interesting cyclical patterns in the time series of the expected return. The empirical relevance of these estimates is examined with tests of statistical and economic predictive ability for stock excess returns. The results provide signi ficant evidence on the added value of the estimates when compared to popular predictors found in the literature (see a.o. Lettau and Ludvigson, 2001; Rapach and Wohar, 2006; Goyal and Welch, 2008). [less ▲]

Risk management in agricultural water use

E-print/Working paper (2002)

Water availability for agricultural activities will decrease in the twenty-first century. As a consequence, agricultural water management will have to improve in order to meet two challenges: satisfy the ... [more ▼]

Water availability for agricultural activities will decrease in the twenty-first century. As a consequence, agricultural water management will have to improve in order to meet two challenges: satisfy the needs of an increasing world population; and alleviate the climate change impacts. One way to improve agricultural water management consists of including the ‘risk’ notion as much as possible at the different decision levels of: farmers, farmer corporations and states or associations of states. These three decision levels will be analysed both for rainfed and irrigated agriculture. The poorest countries are those most subject to climate risks, the main risks in developing countries, because they too rarely possess the means to combat excesses or shortages of water during the plant growing period (irrigation schemes) and they cannot rely on crop insurance or other kinds of support to maintain their income in bad years. Consequently, in order to ensure a minimum level of income, farmers will prefer low input practices that provide a low but stable production without involving too much investment or cash. Where possible they will diversify their production. This paper first defines hazard, vulnerability and risk in the particular context of drought assessment and prediction. It then presents some strategies to reduce water risk in three major categories: (1) more irrigated agricultural land in an efficient manner; (2) increased and better managed pasture and forest areas to benefit from otherwise lost water by evaporation process, increasing animal productivity; (3) well water managed dryland agriculture. In dryland agriculture, some additional public measures are necessary, mainly drought risk insurance and early warning systems, in order to promote investment in drought-prone environments and to provide tools for decision-making. The adoption of an efficient water use management of rainfall and irrigation will ensure food security, contribute to poverty alleviation, and free water for non-agricultural uses. The paper presents some new promising techniques and approaches. Finally, it discusses the sharing of risk between the different decision levels and launches some ideas to serve as discussion points in the electronic conference. [less ▲]

Risk of Alzheimer’s Disease biological misdiagnosis linked to cerebrospinal collection tubes

in Journal of Alzheimer's Disease [=JAD] (2012), 31((1)), 13-20

Tau proteins and amyloid-β (Aβ) peptides are the current recognized cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) biomarkers used as an aid in the diagnosis of Alzheimer's disease (AD). However, there is no consensus on ... [more ▼]

Tau proteins and amyloid-β (Aβ) peptides are the current recognized cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) biomarkers used as an aid in the diagnosis of Alzheimer's disease (AD). However, there is no consensus on their clinical use due to non-qualified cut-off values, probably related to the observed high pre-analytical and analytical variability. Standardized pre-analytical protocols have therefore been proposed. Importantly, these recommend the use of polypropylene collection/sampling tubes while, to date, no broad comparison of these types of tubes has been conducted. In this study, we first compared, as part of a real clinical workflow, the impact of four different collection tubes on the CSF concentration of Aβ peptides (Aβ42, Aβ40) and total (hTau) and phosphorylated (P-Tau181P) tau proteins measured using routine ELISA kits. We then extended this study to 11 polypropylene tubes used by different clinical laboratories, and investigated their plastic polymer composition using differential scanning calorimetry and Fourier Transformed Infrared spectroscopy. Significant concentration variations linked solely to the use of different types of tubes were observed. This was particularly marked for Aβ peptides, with >50% disparity occurring in less than five minutes. Polymer composition analysis revealed that most polypropylene tubes were in fact copolymers with at least polyethylene. There was no clear correlation between tube composition and pre-analytical behavior. Our results show that the use of polypropylene tubes does not guarantee satisfactory pre-analytical behavior. They also point to collection/sampling tubes being a major pre-analytical source of variability that could impact the significance of AD biological diagnosis. [less ▲]

Risk of fracture in women treated with monthly oral ibandronate or weekly bisphosphonates: the eValuation of IBandronate Efficacy (VIBE) database fracture study

in BONE (2009), 44

The eValuation of IBandronate Efficacy (VIBE) head-to-head database fracture study compared fracture rates between patients treated with monthly ibandronate and weekly oral bisphosphonates (BPs). This ... [more ▼]

The eValuation of IBandronate Efficacy (VIBE) head-to-head database fracture study compared fracture rates between patients treated with monthly ibandronate and weekly oral bisphosphonates (BPs). This large study included women ≥45 years old, newly prescribed monthly oral ibandronate or weekly oral alendronate or risedronate, and without malignancy or Paget's disease of bone. The primary analysis included patients who were adherent to treatment during the first 90 days after the index date. The risks of hip, nonvertebral, vertebral and any clinical fracture were compared using Cox proportional hazards models and adjusted for potential confounding factors. A secondary, “intent-to-treat” analysis included all patients who received at least one BP prescription. Sensitivity analyses based on the primary analysis compared patients receiving ibandronate with patients receiving weekly alendronate or risedronate separately, and explored the effect of excluding patients with potential confounding factors from the analysis. Further sensitivity analyses varied the requirement for adherence during the first 90 days after the index date. The primary analysis population included 7345 monthly ibandronate and 56,837 weekly BP patients. Fracture rates after the 12-month observational period were <2% and fracture risk was not significantly different between patients receiving monthly ibandronate or weekly BPs for hip, nonvertebral or any clinical fracture (adjusted relative risk: hip=1.06, p=0.84; nonvertebral=0.88, p=0.255; any clinical fracture=0.82, p=0.052). Ibandronate patients had a significantly lower risk of vertebral fracture than weekly BP patients (adjusted relative risk 0.36, 95% confidence interval 0.18–0.75, p=0.006). In the secondary, “intent-to-treat” analysis, relative risks of fracture were not significantly different between treatment groups for any fracture type. The results of the sensitivity analyses were generally consistent with the primary analysis. This retrospective cohort study found that patients treated with oral monthly ibandronate or weekly BPs (alendronate and risedronate) had similar, low risks of hip fracture, nonvertebral fracture and any clinical fracture. Ibandronate patients had a significantly lower relative risk of vertebral fracture than weekly BP patients; the clinical implications of these findings require further exploration and validation. [less ▲]