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See detailCan a global dynamic vegetation model be used for both grassland and crop modeling at the local scale?
Minet, Julien ULg; Tychon, Bernard ULg; Jacquemin, Ingrid ULg et al

Poster (2014, February)

We report on the use of a dynamic vegetation model, CARAIB, within two modeling exercises in the framework of MACSUR. CARAIB is a physically-based, mechanistic model that calculates the carbon ... [more ▼]

We report on the use of a dynamic vegetation model, CARAIB, within two modeling exercises in the framework of MACSUR. CARAIB is a physically-based, mechanistic model that calculates the carbon assimilation of the vegetation as a function of the soil and climatic conditions. Within MACSUR, it was used in the model intercomparison exercises for grassland and crop modeling, in the LiveM 2.4 and CropM WP4 tasks, respectively. For grassland modeling, blind model runs at 11 locations were performed for various time ranges (few years). For crop modeling, a sensitivity analysis for building impact response surfaces (IRS) was performed, based on a bench of model runs at different levels of perturbation in the temperature and precipitation input data over 30 years. For grassland modeling, specific management functions accounting for the cutting or grazing of the grass were added to the model, in the framework of the MACSUR intercomparison. Initially developed for modeling the carbon dynamics of the natural vegetation, CARAIB was already adapted for crop modeling but further modifications regarding the management, i.e., yearly-dependent sowing dates, were introduced. For grassland modeling, simulation results will be further intercompared with other modeling groups, but preliminary results showed that the model could cope with the introduction of the grass cutting module. For crop modeling, building the IRS over 30 years permitted to assess the sensitivity of the model to temperature and precipitation changes. So far, the participation of CARAIB in the intercomparison exercises within MACSUR resulted in further improvements of the model by introducing new functionalities. [less ▲]

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See detailImplementing agricultural land-use in the CARAIB dynamic vegetation model
François, Louis ULg; Jacquemin, Ingrid ULg; Fontaine, Corentin et al

Conference (2014)

CARAIB (Dury et al., iForest - Biogeosciences and Forestry, 4:82-99, 2011) is a state-of-the-art dynamic vegetation model with various modules dealing with (i) soil hydrology, (ii) photosynthesis/stomatal ... [more ▼]

CARAIB (Dury et al., iForest - Biogeosciences and Forestry, 4:82-99, 2011) is a state-of-the-art dynamic vegetation model with various modules dealing with (i) soil hydrology, (ii) photosynthesis/stomatal regulation, (iii) carbon allocation and biomass growth, (iv) litter/soil carbon dynamics, (v) vegetation cover dynamics, (vi) seed dispersal, and (vii) vegetation fires. Climate and atmospheric CO2 are the primary inputs. The model calculates all major water and CO2/carbon fluxes and pools. It can be run with plant functional types or species (up to 100 different species) at various spatial scales, from the municipality to country or continental levels. Within the VOTES project (Fontaine et al., Journal of Land Use Science, 2013, DOI:10.1080/1747423X.2013.786150), the model has been improved to include crops and meadows, and some modules have been written to translate model outputs into quantitative indicators of ecosystem services (e.g., evaluate crop yield from net primary productivity or calculate soil erosion from runoff, slope, grown species and various soil attributes). The model was run over an area covering four municipalities in central Belgium, where land-use is dominated by crops, meadows, housing and some forests and was introduced in the model at the land parcel level. Simulations were also performed for the future. In these simulations, CARAIB was combined with the Aporia Agent-Based Model, to project land-use changes up to 2050. This approach is currently extended within the MASC project (funded by Belgian Science Policy, BELSPO) to the whole Belgian territory (at 1 km2) and to Western Europe (at 20 km x 20 km). [less ▲]

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See detailTowards Participatory Integrated Valuation and Modelling of Ecosystem Services under Land-use Change
Fontaine, C.; Dendoncker, N.; De Vreese, R. et al

in Journal of Land Use Science (2014), 9

The lack of consideration for Ecosystem Services (ES) values in current decision-making is recognised as one of the main reasons leading to an intense competition and arguably unsustainable use of well ... [more ▼]

The lack of consideration for Ecosystem Services (ES) values in current decision-making is recognised as one of the main reasons leading to an intense competition and arguably unsustainable use of well-located available land. In this paper, we present a framework for the Valuation Of Terrestrial Ecosystem Services (VOTES), aiming at structuring a methodology that is applicable for valuing ES in a given area through a set of indicators that are both meaningful for local actors and scientifically constructed. Examples from a case study area in central Belgium are used to illustrate the methodology: a stepwise procedure starting with the valuation of ES at present. The valuation of the social, biophysical and economic dimensions of ES are based on current land-use patterns. Subsequently, scenarios of land-use change are used to explore potential losses (and/or gains) of ES in the future of the study area. With the VOTES framework, we aim at [1] incorporating stakeholders inputs to widen the valuation process and increase trust in policy-oriented approach; [2] integrating valuation of ES with a sustainable development stance accounting for land-use change; and [3] developing suggestions to policy-makers for integrating ES monitoring in policy developments. [less ▲]

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See detailCARAIB USER'S GUIDE
Minet, Julien ULg; Jacquemin, Ingrid ULg; François, Louis ULg

Learning material (2013)

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See detailPaleoproductivity during the middle Miocene carbon isotope events: A data-model approach
Diester-Haass, Liselotte; Billups, Katharina; Jacquemin, Ingrid ULg et al

in Paleoceanography (2013), 28

To what extent are individual middle Miocene eccentricity-scale benthic foraminiferal carbon isotope maxima (the so-called CM events) related to changes in marine export productivity? Here we use benthic ... [more ▼]

To what extent are individual middle Miocene eccentricity-scale benthic foraminiferal carbon isotope maxima (the so-called CM events) related to changes in marine export productivity? Here we use benthic foraminiferal accumulation rates from three sites in the Pacific and Southern Oceans and a geochemical box model to assess relationships between benthic foraminiferal δ13C records, export productivity, and the global carbon cycle. Results from Deep Sea Drilling Project Hole 588 and Ocean Drilling Program Site 747 show a distinct productivity maximum during CM 6 at 13.8 Ma, the time of major expansion of ice on Antarctica. Productivity maxima during other CM events are only recorded at high-latitude Site 747. A set of numerical experiments tests whether changes in foraminiferal δ13C records (CM events) and export productivity can be simulated solely by sea level fluctuations and the associated changes in global weathering-deposition cycles, by sea level fluctuations plus global climatic cooling, and by sea level fluctuations plus invigorated ocean circulation. Consistent with data, the periodic forcing of sea level and albedo (and associated weathering cycles) produces δ13C variations of the correct temporal spacing, albeit with a reduced amplitude. A productivity response of the correct magnitude is achieved by enhancing ocean circulation during cold periods. We suggest that the pacing of middle Miocene δ13C fluctuations is associated with cyclical sea level variations. The amplitude, however, is muted perhaps due to the competing effects of a time-lagged response to sea level lowstands but an immediate response to invigorated ocean circulation during cold phases. [less ▲]

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See detailModelling the risk of ecosystem disruption in Europe with a dynamic vegetation model
Dury, Marie ULg; Hambuckers, Alain ULg; Warnant, Pierre et al

Conference (2012, April)

What will be the European ecosystem responses to future climate? With unprecedented speed and extent, the projected climate change might lead to a disruption of terrestrial plants functioning in many ... [more ▼]

What will be the European ecosystem responses to future climate? With unprecedented speed and extent, the projected climate change might lead to a disruption of terrestrial plants functioning in many regions. In the framework of the EcoChange project, transient projections over the 1901-2100 period have been performed with a process-based dynamic vegetation model, CARAIB DVM (Dury et al., 2011, iForest 4: 82, 99). The vegetation model was driven by the outputs of four climate models under the SRES A1B scenario: the ARPEGE/Climate model and three regional climate models (KNMI-RACMO2 , DMI-HIRHAM5 and HC-HadRM3Q0 RCMs) from the European Union project ENSEMBLES. DVMs are appropriate tools to apprehend potential climate change impacts on ecosystems and identify threatened regions over Europe. CARAIB outputs (soil moisture, runoff, net primary productivity, fire, etc.) were used to characterize the ecosystem evolution. To assess consequences on biodiversity, the evolution of 100 natural common European species (47 herbs, 12 shrubs and 41 trees) has been studied year-to-year over the 1901-2100 period. Under the combined effects of projected changes particularly in temperature and precipitations, CARAIB simulates important reductions in the annual soil water content. The species productivities vary strongly from year to year reaching during the driest years values much lower than present-day average productivity. According to CARAIB, a lot of species might go beyond their water tolerance very frequently, particularly after 2050, due to more intense summer droughts. In the northern part of Europe and in the Alps, with reduced temperature variability and positive soil water anomalies, NPP variability tends to decrease. Regions with more severe droughts might also be affected by an increase of the frequency and intensity of wildfires. With this background, the species distributions might be strongly modified. 15% of tree species and 30% of herb and shrub species (respectively 30% and 60% if the CO2 fertilization effect on species is not taken into account) might experience a loss of 30% or more of their current distribution. Proportions of new species appearance at the end of the century were also studied. Southern Europe might suffer important species extinction while the more suitable climate conditions in northern Europe might lead to a gain in species diversity. [less ▲]

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