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See detailUsing a dynamic vegetation model for future projections of crop yields : application to Belgium in the framework of the VOTES and MASC projects
Jacquemin, Ingrid ULg; Henrot, Alexandra-Jane ULg; Fontaine, Corentin M. et al

Poster (2016, April 22)

Dynamic vegetation models (DVM) were initially designed to describe the dynamics of natural ecosystems as a function of climate and soil, to study the role of the vegetation in the carbon cycle. These ... [more ▼]

Dynamic vegetation models (DVM) were initially designed to describe the dynamics of natural ecosystems as a function of climate and soil, to study the role of the vegetation in the carbon cycle. These models are now directly coupled with climate models in order to evaluate feedbacks between vegetation and climate. But DVM characteristics allow numerous other applications, leading to amelioration of some of their modules (e.g., evaluating sensitivity of the hydrological module to land surface changes) and developments (e.g., coupling with other models like agent-based models), to be used in ecosystem management and land use planning studies. It is in this dynamic context about DVMs that we have adapted the CARAIB (CARbon Assimilation In the Biosphere) model. One of the main improvements is the implementation of a crop module, allowing the assessment of climate change impacts on crop yields. We try to validate this module at different scales: - from the plot level, with the use of eddy-covariance data from agricultural sites in the FLUXNET network, such as Lonzée (Belgium) or other Western European sites (Grignon, Dijkgraaf,. . . ), - to the country level, for which we compare the crop yield calculated by CARAIB to the crop yield statistics for Belgium and for different agricultural regions of the country. Another challenge for the CARAIB DVM was to deal with the landscape dynamics, which is not directly possible due to the lack of consideration of anthropogenic factors in the system. In the framework of the VOTES and the MASC projects, CARAIB is coupled with an agent-based model (ABM), representing the societal component of the system. This coupled module allows the use of climate and socio-economic scenarios, particularly interesting for studies which aim at ensuring a sustainable approach. This module has particularly been exploited in the VOTES project, where the objective was to provide a social, biophysical and economic assessment of the ecosystem services in four municipalities under urban pressure in the center of Belgium. The biophysical valuation was carried out with the coupled module, allowing a quantitative evaluation of key ecosystem services as a function of three climatic and socio-economic scenarios. [less ▲]

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See detailHigh-resolution climate and land surface interactions modeling over Belgium: current state and decennial scale projections
Jacquemin, Ingrid ULg; Henrot, Alexandra-Jane ULg; Beckers, Veronique et al

Poster (2016, April 21)

The interactions between land surface and climate are complex. Climate changes can affect ecosystem structure and functions, by altering photosynthesis and productivity or inducing thermal and hydric ... [more ▼]

The interactions between land surface and climate are complex. Climate changes can affect ecosystem structure and functions, by altering photosynthesis and productivity or inducing thermal and hydric stresses on plant species. These changes then impact socio-economic systems, through e.g., lower farming or forestry incomes. Ultimately, it can lead to permanent changes in land use structure, especially when associated with other non-climatic factors, such as urbanization pressure. These interactions and changes have feedbacks on the climate systems, in terms of changing: (1) surface properties (albedo, roughness, evapotranspiration, etc.) and (2) greenhouse gas emissions (mainly CO2, CH4, N2O). In the framework of the MASC project (« Modelling and Assessing Surface Change impacts on Belgian and Western European climate »), we aim at improving regional climate model projections at the decennial scale over Belgium and Western Europe by combining high-resolution models of climate, land surface dynamics and socio-economic processes. The land surface dynamics (LSD) module is composed of a dynamic vegetation model (CARAIB) calculating the productivity and growth of natural and managed vegetation, and an agent-based model (CRAFTY), determining the shifts in land use and land cover. This up-scaled LSD module is made consistent with the surface scheme of the regional climate model (RCM: ALARO) to allow simulations of the RCM with a fully dynamic land surface for the recent past and the period 2000-2030. In this contribution, we analyze the results of the first simulations performed with the CARAIB dynamic vegetation model over Belgium at a resolution of 1km. This analysis is performed at the species level, using a set of 17 species for natural vegetation (trees and grasses) and 10 crops, especially designed to represent the Belgian vegetation. The CARAIB model is forced with surface atmospheric variables derived from the monthly global CRU climatology or ALARO outputs (from a 4 km resolution simulation) for the recent past and the decennial projections. Evidently, these simulations lead to a first analysis of the impact of climate change on carbon stocks (e.g., biomass, soil carbon) and fluxes (e.g., gross and net primary productivities (GPP and NPP) and net ecosystem production (NEP)). The surface scheme is based on two land use/land cover databases, ECOPLAN for the Flemish region and, for the Walloon region, the COS-Wallonia database and the Belgian agricultural statistics for agricultural land. Land use and land cover are fixed through time (reference year: 2007) in these simulations, but a first attempt of coupling between CARAIB and CRAFTY will be made to establish dynamic land use change scenarios for the next decades. A simulation with variable land use would allow an analysis of land use change impacts not only on crop yields and the land carbon budget, but also on climate relevant parameters, such as surface albedo, roughness length and evapotranspiration towards a coupling with the RCM. [less ▲]

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See detailAssessing the Risk of Ecosystem Disruption in Europe using a Dynamic Vegetation Model driven by CMIP5 Regional Climatic Projections from EURO-CORDEX
Dury, Marie ULg; Hambuckers, Alain ULg; Henrot, Alexandra-Jane ULg et al

Conference (2015, December 18)

While the combination of warmer and drier mean climatic conditions can have severe impacts on ecosystems, extreme events like droughts or heat waves that break the gradual climate change can have more ... [more ▼]

While the combination of warmer and drier mean climatic conditions can have severe impacts on ecosystems, extreme events like droughts or heat waves that break the gradual climate change can have more long-term consequences on ecosystem composition, functioning and carbon storage. Hence, it is essential to assess the changes in climatic variability and the changes in frequency of extreme events projected for the future. Ecosystems could not be in a condition to adapt to these new conditions and might be disrupted. Here, the process-based dynamic vegetation model CARAIB DVM was used to evaluate and analyze how future climate and extreme events will affect European ecosystems. To quantify the uncertainties in the climatic projections and in their potential impacts on ecosystems, the vegetation model was driven with the outputs of different regional climatic models (RCMs), nested in CMIP5 GCM projections for the EURO-CORDEX project. We used the ALADIN version 5.3 (Météo-France/CNRM) and other EURO-CORDEX RCMs. These climatic projections are at a high spatial resolution (0.11-degree, ~12 km). CARAIB simulations were performed across Europe over the historical period 1951-2005 and the future period 2006-2100 under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios. We simulated a set of 99 individual species (47 herbs, 12 shrubs and 40 trees) representing the major European ecosystem flora. First, we analyzed the climatic variability simulated by the climatic models over the historical period and compared it with the observed climatic variability. None of these climatic models can reproduce accurately the present natural climatic variability. Then, to assess the risk of ecosystem disruption in the future and to identify the vulnerable areas in Europe, we created an index combining several CARAIB outputs: runoff, mean NPP, soil turnover, burned area, appearance and disappearance of species. We evaluated the severity of change projected for these variables (period 2071-2100) relative to their current variability (period 1961-1990). Mean changes were considered severe if they exceed observed variability. The highest values of the index were found in southern Europe, indicating that the amplitude of the expected ecosystem changes largely exceeds current interannual variability in this area. [less ▲]

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See detailAnalysing the response of European ecosystems to droughts and heat waves within ISI-MIP2 simulations
Henrot, Alexandra-Jane ULg; Dury, Marie ULg; François, Louis ULg et al

Conference (2015, December 14)

With unprecedented speed and extent, the future climate change can be expected to severely impact terrestrial ecosystems due to more frequent extreme events, such as droughts or heat waves. What will be ... [more ▼]

With unprecedented speed and extent, the future climate change can be expected to severely impact terrestrial ecosystems due to more frequent extreme events, such as droughts or heat waves. What will be the impacts of these extreme events on ecosystem functioning and structure? How far will net primary production be reduced by such events? What will be the impact on plant mortality? Could such events trigger changes in the abundance of plant species, thus leading to biome shifts? In this contribution, we propose to use ISI-MIP2 model historical simulations from the biome sector to analyse the response of ecosystems to droughts or heat waves, trying to understand the differences between several vegetation models (e.g. CARAIB, HYBRID, LPJ). The analysis will focus on Europe. It will compare and assess the model responses for a series of well-marked drought or heat wave events in the simulated historical period, such as those that occurred in 1976, 2003 or 2010. This analysis will be performed in terms of several important environmental variables, like soil water and hydric stress, runoff, PFT abundance, net primary productivity and biomass, fire frequency, turnover of soil organic matter, etc. Whenever possible, the response of the model will be compared to available data for the most recent well-marked events. Examples of data to be used are eddy covariance, satellite data (including leaf area and fire occurrence) or tree rings. [less ▲]

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See detailEvaluation de la vulnérabilité et du risque associés à la sécheresse des nappes phréatiques en Belgique : simulation de la recharge au niveau des zones agricoles avec le modèle B-CGMS
Jacquemin, Ingrid ULg; Verbeiren, Boud; Uljee, Inge et al

Conference (2015, July 02)

Groundwater drought remains poorly studied under temperate climate. The GroWaDRISK project aims at covering this gap by studying the influencing factors and the drought-related impacts on the environment ... [more ▼]

Groundwater drought remains poorly studied under temperate climate. The GroWaDRISK project aims at covering this gap by studying the influencing factors and the drought-related impacts on the environment, water supply and agriculture in the area of the Dijle and Demer catchment. In order to evaluate the current recharge (1980-2012), both models B-CGMS and WetSpass are used under various land uses and land covers. Only BCGMS will be presented in this paper. The model will be adapted in order to be applied on agricultural land: for arable land (winter wheat, maize,…), orchards, horticulture and floriculture areas and for meadows and grassland classes. The use of this model can be justified by the precision, from both spatial and temporal, which allow us to propose a more accurate recharge assessment in function of the main crops of the study area. [less ▲]

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See detailQuantifying drought effects on groundwater recharge in a human-influenced catchment
Verbeiren, Boud; Huysmans, Marijke; Vanderhaegen, Sven et al

Conference (2015, June)

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See detailModelling carbon fluxes of forest and grassland ecosystems in Western Europe using the CARAIB dynamic vegetation model: evaluation against eddy covariance data.
Henrot, Alexandra-Jane ULg; François, Louis ULg; Dury, Marie ULg et al

in Geophysical Research Abstracts (2015, April), 17

Eddy covariance measurements are an essential resource to understand how ecosystem carbon fluxes react in response to climate change, and to help to evaluate and validate the performance of land surface ... [more ▼]

Eddy covariance measurements are an essential resource to understand how ecosystem carbon fluxes react in response to climate change, and to help to evaluate and validate the performance of land surface and vegetation models at regional and global scale. In the framework of the MASC project (« Modelling and Assessing Surface Change impacts on Belgian and Western European climate »), vegetation dynamics and carbon fluxes of forest and grassland ecosystems simulated by the CARAIB dynamic vegetation model (Dury et al., iForest - Biogeosciences and Forestry, 4:82-99, 2011) are evaluated and validated by comparison of the model predictions with eddy covariance data. Here carbon fluxes (e.g. net ecosystem exchange (NEE), gross primary productivity (GPP), and ecosystem respiration (RECO)) and evapotranspiration (ET) simulated with the CARAIB model are compared with the fluxes measured at several eddy covariance flux tower sites in Belgium and Western Europe, chosen from the FLUXNET global network (http://fluxnet.ornl.gov/). CARAIB is forced either with surface atmospheric variables derived from the global CRU climatology, or with in situ meteorological data. Several tree (e.g. Pinus sylvestris, Fagus sylvatica, Picea abies) and grass species (e.g. Poaceae, Asteraceae) are simulated, depending on the species encountered on the studied sites. The aim of our work is to assess the model ability to reproduce the daily, seasonal and interannual variablility of carbon fluxes and the carbon dynamics of forest and grassland ecosystems in Belgium and Western Europe. [less ▲]

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See detailunité: Eau-Environnement-Développement (ULg Campus Arlon): la télédétection au service de l'agriculture
Wellens, Joost ULg; Lang, Marie ULg; Benabdelouahab, Tarik et al

Diverse speeche and writing (2015)

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See detailA crop model ensemble analysis of temperature and precipitation effects on wheat yield across a European transect using impact response surfaces"
Pirttioja, Nina; Carter, Timothy; Fronzek, Stefan et al

in Climate Research (2015)

This study aims to explore the utility of the impact response surface (IRS) approach for investigating model ensemble crop yield responses under a large range of changes in climate. IRSs of spring and ... [more ▼]

This study aims to explore the utility of the impact response surface (IRS) approach for investigating model ensemble crop yield responses under a large range of changes in climate. IRSs of spring and winter wheat (Triticum aestivum) yields were constructed from a 26-member ensemble of process-based crop simulation models for sites in Finland, Germany and Spain across a latitudinal transect in Europe. The sensitivity of modelled yield to systematic increments of changes in temperature (-2 to +9°C) and precipitation (-50 to +50%) was tested by modifying values of 1981–2010 baseline daily weather, with CO2 concentration fixed at 360 ppm. The IRS approach offers an effective method of portraying model behaviour under changing climate as well as advantages for analysing, comparing and presenting results from multi-model ensemble simulations. Though individual model behaviour may depart markedly from the average, ensemble median responses across sites and crop varieties indicate that yields decline with higher temperatures and decreased precipitation and increase with higher precipitation. Across the uncertainty ranges defined for the IRSs, yields are more sensitive to temperature than precipitation changes at the Finnish site while sensitivities are mixed at the German and Spanish sites. Precipitation effects diminish under higher temperature changes. While the bivariate and multi-model characteristics of the analysis impose some limits to interpretation, the IRS approach nonetheless provides additional insights into sensitivities to inter-model and inter-annual variability. Taken together, these sensitivities may help to pinpoint processes such as heat stress, vernalisation or drought effects requiring refinement in future model development. [less ▲]

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See detailDifferentiating between influencing factors land use and climate to assess drought effects on groundwater recharge in a temperate context
Verbeiren, Boud; Huysmans, Marijke; Vanderhaegen, Sven et al

Conference (2014, November)

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See detailCan a global dynamic vegetation model be used for both grassland and crop modeling at the local scale?
Minet, Julien ULg; Tychon, Bernard ULg; Jacquemin, Ingrid ULg et al

Poster (2014, February)

We report on the use of a dynamic vegetation model, CARAIB, within two modeling exercises in the framework of MACSUR. CARAIB is a physically-based, mechanistic model that calculates the carbon ... [more ▼]

We report on the use of a dynamic vegetation model, CARAIB, within two modeling exercises in the framework of MACSUR. CARAIB is a physically-based, mechanistic model that calculates the carbon assimilation of the vegetation as a function of the soil and climatic conditions. Within MACSUR, it was used in the model intercomparison exercises for grassland and crop modeling, in the LiveM 2.4 and CropM WP4 tasks, respectively. For grassland modeling, blind model runs at 11 locations were performed for various time ranges (few years). For crop modeling, a sensitivity analysis for building impact response surfaces (IRS) was performed, based on a bench of model runs at different levels of perturbation in the temperature and precipitation input data over 30 years. For grassland modeling, specific management functions accounting for the cutting or grazing of the grass were added to the model, in the framework of the MACSUR intercomparison. Initially developed for modeling the carbon dynamics of the natural vegetation, CARAIB was already adapted for crop modeling but further modifications regarding the management, i.e., yearly-dependent sowing dates, were introduced. For grassland modeling, simulation results will be further intercompared with other modeling groups, but preliminary results showed that the model could cope with the introduction of the grass cutting module. For crop modeling, building the IRS over 30 years permitted to assess the sensitivity of the model to temperature and precipitation changes. So far, the participation of CARAIB in the intercomparison exercises within MACSUR resulted in further improvements of the model by introducing new functionalities. [less ▲]

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See detailImplementing agricultural land-use in the CARAIB dynamic vegetation model
François, Louis ULg; Jacquemin, Ingrid ULg; Fontaine, Corentin et al

Conference (2014)

CARAIB (Dury et al., iForest - Biogeosciences and Forestry, 4:82-99, 2011) is a state-of-the-art dynamic vegetation model with various modules dealing with (i) soil hydrology, (ii) photosynthesis/stomatal ... [more ▼]

CARAIB (Dury et al., iForest - Biogeosciences and Forestry, 4:82-99, 2011) is a state-of-the-art dynamic vegetation model with various modules dealing with (i) soil hydrology, (ii) photosynthesis/stomatal regulation, (iii) carbon allocation and biomass growth, (iv) litter/soil carbon dynamics, (v) vegetation cover dynamics, (vi) seed dispersal, and (vii) vegetation fires. Climate and atmospheric CO2 are the primary inputs. The model calculates all major water and CO2/carbon fluxes and pools. It can be run with plant functional types or species (up to 100 different species) at various spatial scales, from the municipality to country or continental levels. Within the VOTES project (Fontaine et al., Journal of Land Use Science, 2013, DOI:10.1080/1747423X.2013.786150), the model has been improved to include crops and meadows, and some modules have been written to translate model outputs into quantitative indicators of ecosystem services (e.g., evaluate crop yield from net primary productivity or calculate soil erosion from runoff, slope, grown species and various soil attributes). The model was run over an area covering four municipalities in central Belgium, where land-use is dominated by crops, meadows, housing and some forests and was introduced in the model at the land parcel level. Simulations were also performed for the future. In these simulations, CARAIB was combined with the Aporia Agent-Based Model, to project land-use changes up to 2050. This approach is currently extended within the MASC project (funded by Belgian Science Policy, BELSPO) to the whole Belgian territory (at 1 km2) and to Western Europe (at 20 km x 20 km). [less ▲]

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See detailTowards Participatory Integrated Valuation and Modelling of Ecosystem Services under Land-use Change
Fontaine, C.; Dendoncker, N.; De Vreese, R. et al

in Journal of Land Use Science (2014), 9

The lack of consideration for Ecosystem Services (ES) values in current decision-making is recognised as one of the main reasons leading to an intense competition and arguably unsustainable use of well ... [more ▼]

The lack of consideration for Ecosystem Services (ES) values in current decision-making is recognised as one of the main reasons leading to an intense competition and arguably unsustainable use of well-located available land. In this paper, we present a framework for the Valuation Of Terrestrial Ecosystem Services (VOTES), aiming at structuring a methodology that is applicable for valuing ES in a given area through a set of indicators that are both meaningful for local actors and scientifically constructed. Examples from a case study area in central Belgium are used to illustrate the methodology: a stepwise procedure starting with the valuation of ES at present. The valuation of the social, biophysical and economic dimensions of ES are based on current land-use patterns. Subsequently, scenarios of land-use change are used to explore potential losses (and/or gains) of ES in the future of the study area. With the VOTES framework, we aim at [1] incorporating stakeholders inputs to widen the valuation process and increase trust in policy-oriented approach; [2] integrating valuation of ES with a sustainable development stance accounting for land-use change; and [3] developing suggestions to policy-makers for integrating ES monitoring in policy developments. [less ▲]

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See detailDrought-related vulnerability and risk assessment of groundwater resources under temperate conditions
Verbeiren, Boud; Huysmans, Marijke; Tychon, Bernard ULg et al

Conference (2013, September)

Drought hazards are usually associated with (semi-)arid regions. Due to the assumed insignificance of drought hazards under temperate conditions this field remains poorly studied. This study aims at ... [more ▼]

Drought hazards are usually associated with (semi-)arid regions. Due to the assumed insignificance of drought hazards under temperate conditions this field remains poorly studied. This study aims at filling this gap by: (1) Increasing understanding of influencing factors determining drought in a temperate context; (2) Developing a methodology and quantitative tools aimed at planning and decision support with respect to groundwater management. In the first place drought is a phenomenon caused by deficient precipitation for a large area and significant duration and as such it is mainly a meteorological-related hazard. In case the temporary water deficiency affects groundwater bodies, the term groundwater drought is used. Groundwater droughts develop slowly but can have considerable socio-economic and environmental consequences. Groundwater drought is a complex phenomenon. Three main variables are important: groundwater recharge, groundwater level and groundwater discharge. Groundwater recharge is important as it is the source (inflow) of all groundwater. The groundwater table gives an indication of the storage, while groundwater discharge represents the outflow from the groundwater system. Next to natural meteorological variations also human induced factors play a role. In the Belgian context the main influencing factors determining the inflow and potentially resulting in a recharge deficit and an overall deterioration of groundwater resources are climate and land use/land cover. Groundwater demand for human activities has a direct effect on groundwater storage (level). The combined effect of these factors makes that some groundwater bodies are under pressure. In these groundwater bodies the outflow exceeds the inflow generating a reduction in storage and hence an unsustainable situation. A thorough knowledge of all three influencing factors and their interaction or combined effect is essential for a reliable estimate of the groundwater budget and a sustainable management. Hence, there is a need for an improved understanding of groundwater drought and the human-induced factors influencing the groundwater balance. This should form the basis for an integrated approach which allows tackling these negative effects and safeguarding sustainability of groundwater resources. [less ▲]

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See detailCARAIB USER'S GUIDE
Minet, Julien ULg; Jacquemin, Ingrid ULg; François, Louis ULg

Learning material (2013)

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See detailTowards a comprehensive framework for the assessment of groundwater drought in temperate regions
Tsakiris, Georges; Nalbantis, Ioannis; Vangelis, Harris et al

Conference (2013, June)

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See detailPaleoproductivity during the middle Miocene carbon isotope events: A data-model approach
Diester-Haass, Liselotte; Billups, Katharina; Jacquemin, Ingrid ULg et al

in Paleoceanography (2013), 28

To what extent are individual middle Miocene eccentricity-scale benthic foraminiferal carbon isotope maxima (the so-called CM events) related to changes in marine export productivity? Here we use benthic ... [more ▼]

To what extent are individual middle Miocene eccentricity-scale benthic foraminiferal carbon isotope maxima (the so-called CM events) related to changes in marine export productivity? Here we use benthic foraminiferal accumulation rates from three sites in the Pacific and Southern Oceans and a geochemical box model to assess relationships between benthic foraminiferal δ13C records, export productivity, and the global carbon cycle. Results from Deep Sea Drilling Project Hole 588 and Ocean Drilling Program Site 747 show a distinct productivity maximum during CM 6 at 13.8 Ma, the time of major expansion of ice on Antarctica. Productivity maxima during other CM events are only recorded at high-latitude Site 747. A set of numerical experiments tests whether changes in foraminiferal δ13C records (CM events) and export productivity can be simulated solely by sea level fluctuations and the associated changes in global weathering-deposition cycles, by sea level fluctuations plus global climatic cooling, and by sea level fluctuations plus invigorated ocean circulation. Consistent with data, the periodic forcing of sea level and albedo (and associated weathering cycles) produces δ13C variations of the correct temporal spacing, albeit with a reduced amplitude. A productivity response of the correct magnitude is achieved by enhancing ocean circulation during cold periods. We suggest that the pacing of middle Miocene δ13C fluctuations is associated with cyclical sea level variations. The amplitude, however, is muted perhaps due to the competing effects of a time-lagged response to sea level lowstands but an immediate response to invigorated ocean circulation during cold phases. [less ▲]

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See detailModelling the risk of ecosystem disruption in Europe with a dynamic vegetation model
Dury, Marie ULg; Hambuckers, Alain ULg; Warnant, Pierre et al

Conference (2012, April)

What will be the European ecosystem responses to future climate? With unprecedented speed and extent, the projected climate change might lead to a disruption of terrestrial plants functioning in many ... [more ▼]

What will be the European ecosystem responses to future climate? With unprecedented speed and extent, the projected climate change might lead to a disruption of terrestrial plants functioning in many regions. In the framework of the EcoChange project, transient projections over the 1901-2100 period have been performed with a process-based dynamic vegetation model, CARAIB DVM (Dury et al., 2011, iForest 4: 82, 99). The vegetation model was driven by the outputs of four climate models under the SRES A1B scenario: the ARPEGE/Climate model and three regional climate models (KNMI-RACMO2 , DMI-HIRHAM5 and HC-HadRM3Q0 RCMs) from the European Union project ENSEMBLES. DVMs are appropriate tools to apprehend potential climate change impacts on ecosystems and identify threatened regions over Europe. CARAIB outputs (soil moisture, runoff, net primary productivity, fire, etc.) were used to characterize the ecosystem evolution. To assess consequences on biodiversity, the evolution of 100 natural common European species (47 herbs, 12 shrubs and 41 trees) has been studied year-to-year over the 1901-2100 period. Under the combined effects of projected changes particularly in temperature and precipitations, CARAIB simulates important reductions in the annual soil water content. The species productivities vary strongly from year to year reaching during the driest years values much lower than present-day average productivity. According to CARAIB, a lot of species might go beyond their water tolerance very frequently, particularly after 2050, due to more intense summer droughts. In the northern part of Europe and in the Alps, with reduced temperature variability and positive soil water anomalies, NPP variability tends to decrease. Regions with more severe droughts might also be affected by an increase of the frequency and intensity of wildfires. With this background, the species distributions might be strongly modified. 15% of tree species and 30% of herb and shrub species (respectively 30% and 60% if the CO2 fertilization effect on species is not taken into account) might experience a loss of 30% or more of their current distribution. Proportions of new species appearance at the end of the century were also studied. Southern Europe might suffer important species extinction while the more suitable climate conditions in northern Europe might lead to a gain in species diversity. [less ▲]

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See detailBiophysical valuation of ecosystem services in the VOTES project: use of a dynamic vegetation model
Jacquemin, Ingrid ULg; François, Louis ULg; Fontaine, Corentin M. et al

Conference (2011, October 04)

The VOTES project (Valuation Of Terrestrial Ecosystem Services in a multifunctional peri-urban space) aims to develop a framework to evaluate ecosystem services from a social, economic and environmental ... [more ▼]

The VOTES project (Valuation Of Terrestrial Ecosystem Services in a multifunctional peri-urban space) aims to develop a framework to evaluate ecosystem services from a social, economic and environmental point of view, where local stakeholders and end-users have a central role in the valuation process, as they are the direct beneficiaries of the provision of services. Within this project, the framework is applied to a case study in central Belgium, known for its strong peri-urban character, due to the proximity to Brussels. To the end, this quantitative tool designed for a sustainable landscape management is also designed for the evaluation and the monitoring of ecosystem services for policy makers. The originality is that this framework will provide an integrated valuation of ecosystem services in a spatially and temporally explicit way, based on different steps in which we find biophysical valuation and landscape modelling: the valuation of the biophysical environment is an essential component of the VOTES framework. To carry through this biophysical valuation, we use the CARAIB model (CARbon Assimilation In the Biosphere), a dynamic vegetation model (DVM) adapted for the valuation of the ecosystem services. This model is combined with another spatial model, an agent-based model (ABM), used to project land use change into the future. Initially, CARAIB was designed to describe (non-managed) natural ecosystems dynamics over large spatial domains and at coarse resolution. In consequence, the model had to be adapted to the VOTES smaller scale case study (including a higher resolution) but, mainly, the model had to be modified to quantify key ecosystem services, e.g., through the addition of a module dedicated to (manage) crops. This new version of the model thus provides direct outputs on the biophysical values of ecosystem services, e.g., productivity (food/fodder, wood production, etc) or carbon storage, which leads to a mapping of these ecosystem services not only for the present, but also for the future until 2050. Indeed, the coupled DVM-ABM is used to construct future (dynamic) scenarios that include the major driving forces of the system (e.g., global socio-economic context, climate change, urbanization pressure, etc) together with adapted management. The computed scenarios will provide the changes in the biophysical system consistent with the socio-economic evolution, including changes in ecosystem structure and function. This will allow an estimate of a change in the provision of ecosystem service through time, so that the sustainability of ecosystem services under the studied scenarios can be assessed. [less ▲]

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See detailParticipatory valuation and modelling of ecosystem services under land use change
Jacquemin, Ingrid ULg; Fontaine, Corentin M.; De Vreese, Rik et al

Poster (2011, April 08)

Ecosystem service (ES) is a conceptual linkage between biodiversity and human well-being. In a context of increased urbanization combined with the effects of climate change, the level of biodiversity is ... [more ▼]

Ecosystem service (ES) is a conceptual linkage between biodiversity and human well-being. In a context of increased urbanization combined with the effects of climate change, the level of biodiversity is expected to be reduced, and from the point of view of the ES, the loss of biodiversity is not only an environmental problem for itself, but is also a major issue for society’s sustainable development. Thus, it is necessary to identify adaptations of ecosystem use and management that will minimize the biodiversity loss while maintaining the production of ES for the society. To achieve this goal, ES must be valuated, but this valuation needs to consider a broad set of goals that include ecological sustainability and social fairness, along with the traditional economic goal of efficiency. Participatory approaches should be used in all ES valuation steps. Indeed, local stakeholders and end-users have a central role in the valuation process, as they are the direct beneficiaries of the provision of services. Moreover, biodiversity management must be focused onto human needs to deliver more integrated policy and management at a landscape-scale and be more firmly directed towards human well-being. Here, we present the framework developed within the VOTES (Valuation Of Terrestrial Ecosystem Services in a multifunctional peri-urban space) project for integrating all these factors in a quantitative tool designed for a sustainable landscape management, as well as for the evaluation and the monitoring of ES for policy designers. The originality is that this framework will provide an integrated valuation of ES in a spatially and temporally explicit way, based on the following steps: social valuation, biophysical valuation, economic valuation, landscape modelling & dynamics and finally integration of ecosystem service indicators. The biophysical assessment and landscape modelling steps rest on the combined use of two spatial models: a dynamic vegetation model (CARAIB DVM) and an agent-based model (ABM). These models will be used to construct future (dynamic) scenarios that include the major driving forces of the system (e.g., global socio-economic context, urbanization pressure, climate change, etc) together with adapted management. The computed scenarios will provide the changes in the biophysical system consistent with the socio-economic evolution, including changes in land use, crop productivity, carbon sequestration, or more generally ecosystem structure and function. This will allow an estimate of a change in the provision of ES through time, so that the sustainability of ES under the studied scenarios can be assessed. The framework is meant to be applicable to any given landscape, but here it is applied to a case study area in central Belgium, known for its strong periurban character, due to the proximity to Brussels. [less ▲]

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