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Comparison of interval and stochastic methods for uncertainty quantification in metal forming Arnst, Maarten ; Liegeois, Kim ; Boman, Romain et al Conference (2016, May 18) Detailed reference viewed: 21 (9 ULg)A Study Of Dry Stiction Phenomenon In MEMS Using A Computational Stochastic Multi-scale Methodology Hoang Truong, Vinh ; Wu, Ling ; et al in EuroSimE 2016 in Montpellier (2016, April 19) This work studies the uncertainties of the adhesive contact problems for reduced size structures, e.g. the stiction failure of microelectromechanical systems (MEMS). In MEMS, because of the large surface ... [more ▼] This work studies the uncertainties of the adhesive contact problems for reduced size structures, e.g. the stiction failure of microelectromechanical systems (MEMS). In MEMS, because of the large surface to volume ratio, the surfaces forces, such as van der Waals forces and capillary forces, are dominant in comparison with the body forces. As these force magnitudes strongly depend on the contact distance, when the two contacting surfaces are rough, the contact distances vary, and the physical contact areas are limited at the highest asperities of the contacting surfaces. Therefore, the adhesive contact forces between two rough surfaces can suffer from a scatter, and the involved structural behaviors can be indeterministic. To numerically predict the probability behaviors of structures involving adhesion in dry environments, in this paper, a computational stochastic model-based multi-scale method developed by the authors is applied. The effects of van der Waals is studied and compared with experimental data as well as with the effects of capillary forces. [less ▲] Detailed reference viewed: 27 (10 ULg)Elements of stochastic processes 2015--2016: course material Arnst, Maarten Learning material (2016) Detailed reference viewed: 708 (225 ULg)Experimental Modal Identification of Mistuning in an Academic Blisk and Comparison With The Blades Geometry Variations Nyssen, Florence ; Arnst, Maarten ; Golinval, Jean-Claude in Proceedings of the ASME Turbo Expo 2015 (2015, June) Detailed reference viewed: 58 (21 ULg)Nonintrusive probabilistic quantification of uncertainties with application to the management of manufacturing tolerances Arnst, Maarten Scientific conference (2015, May) Detailed reference viewed: 36 (17 ULg)Elements of stochastic processes 2014--2015: course material Arnst, Maarten Learning material (2015) Detailed reference viewed: 1287 (367 ULg)Prediction of meso-scale mechanical properties of poly-silicon materials Lucas, Vincent ; Wu, Ling ; Arnst, Maarten et al Conference (2014, August 27) The miniature sizes of micro–electro–mechanical systems (MEMS) as well as the nature of their manufacturing processes, such as etching, material layer deposition, or embossing, are responsible for the ... [more ▼] The miniature sizes of micro–electro–mechanical systems (MEMS) as well as the nature of their manufacturing processes, such as etching, material layer deposition, or embossing, are responsible for the existence of a scatter in the final dimensions, material properties ... of manufactured micro–sensors. This scatter is potentially threatening the behavior and reliability of samples from a batch fabrication process, motivating the development of non-deterministic computational approaches to predict the MEMS properties. In this work we extract the meso-scale properties of the poly-silicon material under the form of a probabilistic distribution. To this end, Statistical Volume Elements (SVE) of the micro-structure are generated under the form of a Voronoï tessellation with a random orientation for each silicon grain. Hence, a Monte-Carlo procedure combined with a homogenization technique allows a distribution of the material tensor at the meso-scale to be estimated. As the finite element method is used to discretize the SVE and to solve the micro-scale boundary value problem, the homogenization technique used to extract the material tensor relies on the computational homogenization theory. In a future work, we will investigate, in the context of MEMS vibrometers, the propagation to the macro–scale of the meso-scale distribution of the homogenized elasticity tensor, with the final aim of predicting the uncertainty on their resonance frequencies. [less ▲] Detailed reference viewed: 74 (23 ULg)Modeling of Uncertainties in Bladed Disks Using a Nonparametric Approach Nyssen, Florence ; Arnst, Maarten ; Golinval, Jean-Claude in Proceedings of the ASME IDETC/CIE 2014 (2014, August) Detailed reference viewed: 24 (9 ULg)Nonparametric modelling of multi-stage assemblies of mistuned bladed disks Nyssen, Florence ; Arnst, Maarten ; Golinval, Jean-Claude Conference (2014, July) Detailed reference viewed: 76 (25 ULg)A probabilistic model of the adhesive contact forces between rough surfaces in the MEMS stiction context Hoang Truong, Vinh ; Wu, Ling ; Arnst, Maarten et al Conference (2014, June 26) Stiction is a common failure mechanism in microelectromechanical systems (MEMS) in which two interacting bodies permanently adhere together. This problem is due to the comparability of adhesive surface ... [more ▼] Stiction is a common failure mechanism in microelectromechanical systems (MEMS) in which two interacting bodies permanently adhere together. This problem is due to the comparability of adhesive surface forces (e.g. Van der Waals forces, capillary forces) and body forces in the MEMS context. To predict the adhesive contact forces coupled with stiction phenomenon, the combination of the Nayak statistical approach with the asperity-based theories is a common solution. However, this method contains some limitations due to the underlying assumptions: infinite size of the interacting rough surfaces and negligibility of asperity interactions. Furthermore, the Nayak solution suffers from a considerable dependency on the choice of the minimum wave length considered in the surface representation, which remains diXcult to select. The main goal of our research is to propose an improved method (i) which accounts for the Vnite size of the interacting surfaces, (ii) accounts for the uncertainties related to these surface topologies, (iii) in which the minimum wave length selection is physically based, and (iv) in which the validity of the asperity-based theories is demonstrated. From the topology measurements of MEMS samples, an analysis of the power spectral density function is carried out to determine the minimum relevant wave length for the problem of interest (here capillary stiction). We also show that at this scale of interest the asperity-based theories remain valid for polysilicon materials. Moreover, instead of considering inVnite surfaces as in the Nayak approach, a set of surfaces, whose sizes are representative of the MEMS structure, is generated based on the approximated power spectral density analysis and using the Monte Carlo method. From this description of the contacting surfaces, the adhesive contact forces can be evaluated by applying the asperity contact theories, leading to a probabilistic distribution of the adhesive contact forces. In addition, as the contact forces are rooted from the micro-scale adhesive forces, while their consequence, stiction, happens at the macro-scale of the considered device, the multi-scale nature of the phenomenon is accounted for. To predict this macro-scale behavior in a probabilistic form, the uncertainty quantiVcation process is coupled with a multiscale analysis. [less ▲] Detailed reference viewed: 141 (20 ULg)Prediction of macroscopic mechanical properties of a polycrystalline microbeam subjected to material uncertainties Lucas, Vincent ; Wu, Ling ; Arnst, Maarten et al in Cunha, Álvaro; Caetano, Elsa; Ribeiro, Pedro (Eds.) et al Proceedings of the 9th International Conference on Structural Dynamics, EURODYN 2014 (2014, June) The first resonance frequency is a key performance characteristic of MEMS vibrometers. In batch fabrication, this first resonance frequency can exhibit scatter owing to various sources of manufacturing ... [more ▼] The first resonance frequency is a key performance characteristic of MEMS vibrometers. In batch fabrication, this first resonance frequency can exhibit scatter owing to various sources of manufacturing variability involved in the fabrication process. The aim of this work is to develop a stochastic multiscale model for predicting the first resonance frequency of MEMS microbeams constituted of polycrystals while accounting for the uncertainties in the microstructure due to the grain orientations. At the finest scale, we model the microstructure of polycrystaline materials using a random Voronoï tessellation, each grain being assigned a random orientation. Then, we apply a computational homogenization procedure on statistical volume elements to obtain a stochastic characterization of the elasticity tensor at the second scale of interest, the meso-scale. In the future, using a stochastic finite element method, we will propagate these meso-scale uncertainties to the first resonance frequency at the coarser scale. [less ▲] Detailed reference viewed: 121 (46 ULg)Towards a Nonparametric Modelling of Multi-stage Assemblies of Mistuned Bladed Disks Nyssen, Florence ; Arnst, Maarten ; Golinval, Jean-Claude Poster (2014, June) Detailed reference viewed: 20 (7 ULg)Probabilistic Assessment of the Lifetime of Low-Earth-Orbit Spacecraft: Uncertainty Characterization Dell'Elce, Lamberto ; Arnst, Maarten ; Kerschen, Gaëtan in Journal of Guidance Control & Dynamics (2014) Orbital lifetime estimation is a problem of great timeliness and importance in astrodynamics. In view of the stochastic nature of the thermosphere and of the complexity of drag modeling, any deterministic ... [more ▼] Orbital lifetime estimation is a problem of great timeliness and importance in astrodynamics. In view of the stochastic nature of the thermosphere and of the complexity of drag modeling, any deterministic assessment of orbital lifetime is likely to be bound to failure. This is why the present paper performs uncertainty quantification of satellite orbital lifetime estimation. Specifically, this paper focuses on the probabilistic characterization of the dominant sources of uncertainty inherent to low-altitude satellites. Uncertainties in the initial state of the satellite and in the atmospheric drag force, as well as uncertainties introduced by modeling limitations associated with atmospheric density models, are considered. Mathematical statistics methods, in conjunction with mechanical modeling considerations, are used to infer the probabilistic characterization of these uncertainties from experimental data and atmospheric density models. This characterization step facilitates the application of uncertainty propagation and sensitivity analysis methods, which in turn allows gaining insight into the impact that these uncertainties have on the orbital lifetime. The proposed developments are illustrated using one CubeSat of the QB50 constellation. [less ▲] Detailed reference viewed: 77 (46 ULg)An overview of nonintrusive characterization, propagation, and sensitivity analysis of uncertainties in computational mechanics Arnst, Maarten ; Ponthot, Jean-Philippe in International Journal for Uncertainty Quantification (2014), 4 In this paper, we offer a short overview of a number of methods that have been reported in the computational-mechanics literature for quantifying uncertainties in engineering applications. Within a ... [more ▼] In this paper, we offer a short overview of a number of methods that have been reported in the computational-mechanics literature for quantifying uncertainties in engineering applications. Within a probabilistic framework, we describe the characterization of uncertainties using mathematical statistics methods, the propagation of uncertainties through computational models using either Monte Carlo sampling or stochastic expansion methods, and the sensitivity analysis of uncertainties using variance- and differentiation-based methods. We restrict our attention to nonintrusive methods that can be implemented as wrappers around existing computer programs, thus requiring no modification of the source code. We include some recent advances in the propagation and sensitivity analysis of uncertainties that are characterized by arbitrary probability distributions that may exhibit statistical dependence. Finally, we demonstrate the methods integrated in the proposed overview through a nonlinear engineering application relevant to metal forming. [less ▲] Detailed reference viewed: 176 (71 ULg)Elements of stochastic processes 2013--2014: course material Arnst, Maarten ; Hoang Truong, Vinh ; Cerquaglia, Marco Lucio et al Learning material (2014) Detailed reference viewed: 420 (127 ULg)Reduced chaos expansions with random coefficients in reduced-dimensional stochastic modeling of coupled problems Arnst, Maarten ; ; et al in International Journal for Numerical Methods in Engineering (2014), 97 We address the curse of dimensionality in methods for solving stochastic coupled problems with an emphasis on stochastic expansion methods such as those involving polynomial chaos expansions. The proposed ... [more ▼] We address the curse of dimensionality in methods for solving stochastic coupled problems with an emphasis on stochastic expansion methods such as those involving polynomial chaos expansions. The proposed method entails a partitioned iterative solution algorithm that relies on a reduced-dimensional representation of information exchanged between subproblems to allow each subproblem to be solved within its own stochastic dimension while interacting with a reduced projection of the other subproblems. The proposed method extends previous work by the authors by introducing a reduced chaos expansion with random coefficients. The representation of the exchanged information by using this reduced chaos expansion with random coefficients enables an expeditious construction of doubly stochastic polynomial chaos expansions that separate the effect of uncertainty local to a subproblem from the effect of statistically independent uncertainty coming from other subproblems through the coupling. After laying out the theoretical framework, we apply the proposed method to a multiphysics problem from nuclear engineering. [less ▲] Detailed reference viewed: 52 (25 ULg)Probabilistic model for MEMS micro-beam resonance frequency made of polycrystalline linear anisotropic material Lucas, Vincent ; Wu, Ling ; Arnst, Maarten et al Conference (2013, December) In order to ensure the accuracy of MEMS vibrometers, the first resonance frequency should be predicted at the design phase. However, this prediction cannot be deterministic: there is a scatter in the ... [more ▼] In order to ensure the accuracy of MEMS vibrometers, the first resonance frequency should be predicted at the design phase. However, this prediction cannot be deterministic: there is a scatter in the reached value resulting from the uncertainties involved in the manufacturing process. The purpose of this work is to take into account these uncertainties of the microstructure and to propagate them up to the micro-beam resonance frequency. The objective is a non-deterministic model that can be used since the design stage. Towards this end a 3-scales stochastic model predicting the resonance frequency of a micro-beam made of a polycrystalline linear anisotropic material is described. Uncertainties are related to the sizes and orientations of the grains. The first part of the problem is a homogenization procedure performed on a volume which is not representative, due to the small scale of the problem inherent in MEMS. The method is thus non-deterministic and a meso-scale probabilistic elasticity tensor is predicted. This stage is followed by a perturbation stochastic finite element procedure to propagate the meso-scale uncertainties to the macro-scale, leading to a probabilistic model of the resonance frequency of the MEMS. [less ▲] Detailed reference viewed: 103 (33 ULg)A probabilistic characterization, propagation, and sensitivity analysis of uncertainties in a metal forming application Arnst, Maarten ; Ponthot, Jean-Philippe Conference (2013, September 05) In metal forming processes, after leaving the tooling, formed pieces of metal have a tendency to partially return to their original shape because of their elastic recovery. This phenomenon, referred to as ... [more ▼] In metal forming processes, after leaving the tooling, formed pieces of metal have a tendency to partially return to their original shape because of their elastic recovery. This phenomenon, referred to as the springback, is quite complex and depends not only on material properties such as Young's modulus and yield stress but also on many process parameters such as sheet thickness and bending angles. The springback is difficult to predict and is a major quality concern in forming processes because when the springback is smaller or larger than expected, it can cause serious problems to subsequent assembly processes due to geometry mismatches. In this communication, we present a probabilistic analysis of a metal forming application. We consider the bending of a metal sheet with uncertain elastoplastic material properties. First, we use methods from mathematical statistics to obtain a probabilistic characterization of the elastoplastic material properties from data. Next, we map this probabilistic representation of the elastoplastic material properties into a probabilistic representation of the deformed shape of the metal sheet through a mechanical model implemented using the Metafor software. Finally, we conduct a stochastic sensitivity analysis to determine which elastoplastic material properties are most influential in driving uncertainty in the deformed shape after the springback. Our probabilistic analysis involves so called nonintrusive methods, that is, methods that can be implemented as wrappers around the Metafor software without requiring modification of its source code. Further, it includes recent methods for the propagation and sensitivity analysis of uncertainties characterized by arbitrary probability distributions that may exhibit statistical dependence. [less ▲] Detailed reference viewed: 35 (8 ULg)UQ benchmark problems for multiphysics modeling Arnst, Maarten Conference (2013, July 23) Multiphysics problems are found in numerous areas of science and engineering. They can take the form of a single equation that tightly couples different types of physical behavior or the form of a system ... [more ▼] Multiphysics problems are found in numerous areas of science and engineering. They can take the form of a single equation that tightly couples different types of physical behavior or the form of a system of equations wherein the solution to certain equations is passed to other equations to determine physical properties or loadings or both. Further, there are multiphysics problems that couple different types of physical behavior with fundamentally different descriptions at different scales, as well as multiphysics problems that couple physical behavior in different regions of space through a shared interface. Uncertainty quantification for multiphysics problems raises various conceptual, mathematical, and numerical challenges. Modeling challenges arise in the characterization of parametric uncertainties and modeling errors that may exist either within subsidiary components or at their interfaces. Further, once these parametric uncertainties and modeling errors are modeled, mathematical challenges arise in the analysis of the local and global existence, uniqueness, regularity, and stability of solutions. Finally, both the use of monolithic solution methods and the use of partitioned solution methods raise numerical challenges relevant to error analysis, stability, convergence, and computational efficiency. This presentation will report on interactions with the USACM community to set up one or more benchmark problems for multiphysics modeling. The ultimate goal of uncertainty quantification in these benchmark problems will be discussed, and the conceptual, mathematical, and numerical challenges in addressing these benchmark problems will be described. [less ▲] Detailed reference viewed: 60 (11 ULg)Stochastic Dimension Reduction of Multi Physics Systems through Measure Transformation ; ; et al Conference (2013, February 26) Uncertainty quantification of multiphysics systems represents numerous mathematical and computational challenges. Indeed, uncertainties that arise in each physics in a fully coupled system must be ... [more ▼] Uncertainty quantification of multiphysics systems represents numerous mathematical and computational challenges. Indeed, uncertainties that arise in each physics in a fully coupled system must be captured throughout the whole system, the so-called curse of dimensionality. We present techniques for mitigating the curse of dimensionality in network-coupled multiphysics systems by using the structure of the network to transform uncertainty representations as they pass between components. Examples from the simulation of nuclear power plants will be discussed. [less ▲] Detailed reference viewed: 90 (14 ULg) |
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