References of "Wyard, Coraline"
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See detailSurface solar radiation modelling over 1900-2014: comparison between the regional climate model MAR and reanalyses
Wyard, Coraline ULg; Doutreloup, Sébastien ULg; Belleflamme, Alexandre ULg et al

Poster (2017, September 04)

Many studies show that the surface solar radiation has underwent large variations over the second half of the 20th century as a result of variations in cloud cover and aerosol loading in the atmosphere ... [more ▼]

Many studies show that the surface solar radiation has underwent large variations over the second half of the 20th century as a result of variations in cloud cover and aerosol loading in the atmosphere. However, it is difficult to build strong conclusions before the 1950s because of the observations scarcity. The evolution of the surface solar radiation has been reconstructed over 1900-2014 using the regional model MAR (« Modèle Atmosphérique Régional ») which has recently been chosen to be part of the EURO-CORDEX project, thanks to the CORDEX.be project. Simulations were performed at a horizontal resolution of 5 km over a domain of 600 x 550 km² covering Belgium. Boundary conditions were provided by four reanalysis products: ERA-interim (1979-2014) completed by the ERA40 (1958-1978), NCEP/NCAR-v1 (1948-2014), ERA-20C (1900-2010) and 20CRV2C (1900-2010). Surface solar radiation measurements from the Global Energy Balance Archive and cloud cover observations from Belgocontrol covering 1966-2007 were used for the evaluation of the MAR model and the forcing reanalyses. Results show that MAR produces much better results than the reanalyses. The driving reanalyses can generate divergent trends while they assimilate observations and are supposed to represent the same climate. [less ▲]

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See detailNoël 2010 en Belgique : neige en Flandre et pluie en Haute-Ardenne
Fettweis, Xavier ULg; Wyard, Coraline ULg; Doutreloup, Sébastien ULg et al

in Bulletin de la Société Géographique de Liège (2017), 68

On December 2010, several snow events allowed an exceptional snow cover over Belgium. 27 days with snow cover were observed at Uccle and snow depths of 20, 30 and 70 cm were measured on Christmas 2010 ... [more ▼]

On December 2010, several snow events allowed an exceptional snow cover over Belgium. 27 days with snow cover were observed at Uccle and snow depths of 20, 30 and 70 cm were measured on Christmas 2010 respectively at Uccle, Bierset and Mont Rigi in the Hautes-Fagnes. On December 20, while the entire Belgium was covered by a thick blanket of snow, warmer air invaded the country on December 21. This air was quickly replaced by polar air in Lower and Central Belgium (including Bierset). Heavy snowfalls were observed on December 22 and 23, except in the Upper Ardennes where rainfalls occurred under positive temperature which then dropped to -5°C. This event was due to a strong thermal inversion in the lower layers with warm air at 850 hPa above the Ardennes only. This paper aims to explain this atypical extreme event using the regional climate model MAR developed at the University of Liège [less ▲]

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See detailÉvaluation de la capacité du Modèle Atmosphérique Régional (MAR) à simuler la saison des pluies en Afrique Intertropicale
Doutreloup, Sébastien ULg; Wyard, Coraline ULg; Belleflamme, Alexandre ULg et al

in Dahech, Salem; Charfi, Sami (Eds.) Actes du XXXe colloque de l'Association Internationale de Climatologie : CLIMAT, VILLE ET ENVIRONNEMENT (2017, July)

In Intertropical Africa, climate is essentially characterized by the amount of precipitation and its annual regime. These precipitations and their evolution during the period 1970-1999 are simulated ... [more ▼]

In Intertropical Africa, climate is essentially characterized by the amount of precipitation and its annual regime. These precipitations and their evolution during the period 1970-1999 are simulated thanks to the Regional Atmospheric Model (MAR), developed at the ULg, and forced by the NCEP1 reanalyses and by the outputs of three global models (GCM) of the CMIP5 database. These MAR simulations are compared to the gridded data of the Climate Research Unit (CRU). It is clear from our investigations that the simulation of the MAR model forced by the NCEP1 reanalyses is better reproducing the quantities as well as the annual rainfall regime in the semi-arid regions than in equatorial regions. On the other hand, simulations of the MAR forced by the outputs of the GCMs are globally unsatisfactory throughout the intertropical domain in terms of quantities as well as the seasonality of precipitation. [less ▲]

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See detailÉvolution de l'enneigement moyen dans les Alpes au cours du 20e siècle à l'aide du modèle atmosphérique régional MAR
Belleflamme, Alexandre ULg; Wyard, Coraline ULg; Doutreloup, Sébastien ULg et al

in Dahech, Salem; Charfi, Sami (Eds.) Actes du XXXème colloque de l'Association Internationale de Climatologie - Climat, ville et environnement (2017, July)

The evolution of the snow height over the Alps can strongly impact tourism, but also the water availability of the region. In this study, we have reproduced the evolution of the climate in the Alps over ... [more ▼]

The evolution of the snow height over the Alps can strongly impact tourism, but also the water availability of the region. In this study, we have reproduced the evolution of the climate in the Alps over the 20th century with the help of the regional atmospheric model MAR forced by three reanalyses (ERA-20C, NCEP/NCAR, and ERA-Interim). MAR shows that the snow height has increased since the beginning of the 20th century, first only at higher altitudes, then also at lower levels, before knowing a strong and abrupt decrease between 1985 and 1990. This evolution, which is consistent with observations given in the literature, is directly linked with the trends of NAO and AO. In fact, the atmospheric circulation changes highlighted by NAO and AO induce temperature and precipitation changes that directly determine the snow height in the Alps. [less ▲]

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See detailRECONSTRUCTION DE L'ÉVOLUTION DU RAYONNEMENT SOLAIRE REÇU EN SURFACE EN EUROPE OCCIDENTALE SUR LA PÉRIODE 1900-2014 À L'AIDE DU MODÈLE ATMOSPHÉRIQUE RÉGIONAL MAR
Wyard, Coraline ULg; Fettweis, Xavier ULg; Belleflamme, Alexandre ULg et al

in Dahech, Salem; Charfi, Sami (Eds.) Actes du XXXe colloque de l'Association Internationale de Climatologie : Climat, ville et environnement (2017, July)

Many studies show that the surface solar radiation has underwent large variations over the second half of the 20th century as a result of variations in cloud cover and aerosol loading in the atmosphere ... [more ▼]

Many studies show that the surface solar radiation has underwent large variations over the second half of the 20th century as a result of variations in cloud cover and aerosol loading in the atmosphere. However, it is difficult to build strong conclusions before the 1950' because of the observations scarcity. The evolution of the surface solar radiation has been reconstructed over 1900-2014 using the regional model MAR (« Modèle Atmosphérique Régional ») in Belgium. Boundary conditions were provided by four reanalysis products : the ERA-interim (1979-2014) completed by the ERA40 (1958-1978), the NCEP/NCAR-v1 (1948-2014), the ERA-20C (1900-2010) and the 20CRV2C (1900-2010). Results show that the reanalyses can generate divergent trends while they assimilate observations and are supposed to represent the same climate. [less ▲]

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See detailDecrease in climatic conditions favouring floods in the south-east of Belgium over 1959-2010 using the regional climate model MAR
Wyard, Coraline ULg; Scholzen, Chloé ULg; Fettweis, Xavier ULg et al

in International Journal of Climatology (2017), 37(5), 27822796

The Ourthe River, in the south-east of Belgium, has a catchment area of 3,500 km2 and is one of the main tributaries of the Meuse River. In the Ourthe, most of the flood events occur during winter and ... [more ▼]

The Ourthe River, in the south-east of Belgium, has a catchment area of 3,500 km2 and is one of the main tributaries of the Meuse River. In the Ourthe, most of the flood events occur during winter and about 50% of them are due to heavy rainfall events combined to an abrupt melting of the snowpack covering the Ardennes massif during winter. This study aims to determine whether trends in extreme hydroclimatic events generating floods can be detected over the last century in Belgium, where a global warming signal can be observed. Hydroclimatic conditions favourable to floods were reconstructed over 1959- 2010 using the regional climate model MAR (“Modèle Atmosphérique Régional”) forced by the ERA-Interim/ERA-40, the ERA-20C and the NCEP/NCAR-v1 reanalyses. Extreme run-off events, which could potentially generate floods, were detected using run-off caused by precipitation events and snowpack melting from the MAR model. In the validation process, the MAR-driven temperature, precipitation and snow depth were successfully compared to daily weather data over the period 2008-2014 for 20 stations in Belgium. MAR also showed its ability to detect up to 90% of the hydroclimatic conditions which effectively generated observed floods in the Ourthe River over the period 1974- 2010. Conditions favourable to floods in the Ourthe River catchment present a negative trend over the period 1959-2010 as a result of a decrease in snow accumulation and a shortening of the snow season. This trend is expected to accelerate in a warmer climate. However, regarding the impact of the extreme precipitation events evolution on conditions favouring floods, the signal is less clear since the trends depend on the reanalysis used to force the MAR model. [less ▲]

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See detailChangement climatique : conséquences en Ardenne
Wyard, Coraline ULg; Fettweis, Xavier ULg

Article for general public (2017)

Le GIEC (Groupe d'experts Intergouvernemental sur l'évolution du climat) prévoit pour le futur plus de précipitations hivernales et donc à priori un risque accru d'inondations en Belgique. En Ardenne, la ... [more ▼]

Le GIEC (Groupe d'experts Intergouvernemental sur l'évolution du climat) prévoit pour le futur plus de précipitations hivernales et donc à priori un risque accru d'inondations en Belgique. En Ardenne, la majorité des débordements de rivières, telles que l'Ourthe, l'Amblève ou encore la Vesdre, survient en hiver et près de la moitié d'entre eux est due à la combinaison de fortes pluies à une fonte rapide du manteau neigeux. Une reconstitution de l'évolution des précipitations et de l'enneigement en Belgique à l'aide d'un modèle du climat, développé au Laboratoire de Climatologie de l'Université de Liège, montre cependant que les conditions climatiques favorisant les inondations hivernales ont diminué en Ardenne au cours de ces cinquante dernières années. [less ▲]

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See detailMontée des eaux : Un nouveau modèle de simulation climatique
Wyard, Coraline ULg; Fettweis, Xavier ULg

Article for general public (2017)

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See detailPlus de pluie, mais pas plus d'inondations ...
Wyard, Coraline ULg

Article for general public (2016)

Le GIEC prévoit pour le futur plus de précipitations et donc plus d'inondations en Belgique. Cependant, en Ardenne, la majorité des débordements de rivières, telles que l'Ourthe, survient en hiver et près ... [more ▼]

Le GIEC prévoit pour le futur plus de précipitations et donc plus d'inondations en Belgique. Cependant, en Ardenne, la majorité des débordements de rivières, telles que l'Ourthe, survient en hiver et près de la moitié d'entre eux est due à la combinaison fortes pluies/fonte rapide de la neige. Une reconstitution de l'évolution des précipitations et de l'enneigement en Belgique à l'aide du modèle climatique MAR, développé au Laboratoire de Climatologie de l'ULg, montre que les conditions hydroclimatiques favorisant les inondations hivernales ont diminué en Ardenne au cours de ces cinquante dernières années. La raison ? Une diminution significative de l'accumulation neigeuse et de la durée de la saison d'enneigement. Dans le futur, cette diminution de l'enneigement pourrait ainsi contrebalancer l'augmentation annoncée des précipitations de sorte qu'il n'y aurait pas plus d'inondations en hiver qu'actuellement. [less ▲]

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See detailHow reliable are the models to study recent climate change ? A study of heat/cold waves and radiative fluxes trends over 1900-2010 using the model MAR in Belgium
Wyard, Coraline ULg; Fettweis, Xavier ULg; Scholzen, Chloé ULg

Poster (2016, August 29)

This research aims to assess the ability of the regional climate model MAR ("Modèle Atmosphérique Régional") to reconstruct the observed twentieth century climatology of extreme events and solar radiation ... [more ▼]

This research aims to assess the ability of the regional climate model MAR ("Modèle Atmosphérique Régional") to reconstruct the observed twentieth century climatology of extreme events and solar radiation in Belgium, as a necessary condition for reliable future projections. Simulations were performed by forcing MAR with several reanalyses: the ERA40/ERA-Interim, the ERA-20C and the NCEP/NCAR-v1. The results suggests that increasing air temperature would have generated decreasing relative humidity which would have lead to a decrease in cloudiness and an increase in solar downward radiation. This research illustrates the dependency between RCMs and their forcings. The forcing reanalyses can generate divergent trends while contrary to Global Climate Models (GCM), the reanalyses assimilate observations and are supposed to represent the same climate. [less ▲]

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See detailThe MAR model performances over Belgium
Wyard, Coraline ULg; Fettweis, Xavier ULg

Conference (2016, June 08)

This presentation deals with the set-up of the regional climate model MAR over Belgium. It also presents the performances of MAR to simulate the present-day climate following three reanalysis used as ... [more ▼]

This presentation deals with the set-up of the regional climate model MAR over Belgium. It also presents the performances of MAR to simulate the present-day climate following three reanalysis used as forcing of the model (ERA-Interim, ERA-20C and NCEP/NCAR-v1). [less ▲]

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See detailDecrease in hydroclimatic conditions generating floods in the southeast of Belgium over the last 50 years
Wyard, Coraline ULg; Fettweis, Xavier ULg

Conference (2016, April 19)

As a consequence of climate change, several studies concluded that winter flood occurrence could increase in the future in many rivers of northern and western Europe in response to an increase in extreme ... [more ▼]

As a consequence of climate change, several studies concluded that winter flood occurrence could increase in the future in many rivers of northern and western Europe in response to an increase in extreme precipitation events. This study aims to determine if trends in extreme hydroclimatic events generating floods can already be detected over the last century. In particular, we focus on the Ourthe River (southeast of Belgium) which is one of the main tributaries of the Meuse River with a catchment area of 3500 km² . In this river, most of the floods occur during winter and about 50% of them are due to rainfall events associated with the melting of the snow which covers the Ardennes during winter. In this study, hydroclimatic conditions favourable to floods were reconstructed over the period 1959-2010 using the regional climate model MAR (“Modèle Atmosphérique Régional”) forced by the following reanalyses: the ERA-20C, the ERA-Interim and the NCEP/NCAR-v1. The use of the MAR model allows to compute precipitation, snow depth and run-off resulting from precipitation events and snow melting in any part of the Ourthe river catchment area. Therefore, extreme hydroclimatic events, namely extreme run-off events, which could potentially generate floods, can be reconstructed using the MAR model. As validation, the MAR results were compared to weather station-based data. A trend analysis was then performed in order to study the evolution of conditions favourable to flooding in the Ourthe River catchment. The results show that the MAR model allows the detection of about 90% of the hydroclimatic conditions which effectively generated observed floods in the Ourthe River over the period 1974-2010. Whatever the reanalysis used to force the MAR model, the conditions favourable to floods due to snowpack melting combined with rainfall events present a significant negative trend over the last 50 years as a result of a decrease in snow accumulation. However, regarding the conditions favourable to floods due to rainfall events alone, the signal of the trend depends on the reanalysis used to force the model. [less ▲]

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See detailSnow cover evolution and its impact on flooding in the Ourthe River catchment (southeast of Belgium) over the period 1958­-2014 using the MAR model
Wyard, Coraline ULg; Fettweis, Xavier ULg; Erpicum, Michel ULg

Conference (2015, November 13)

The Ourthe River (southeast of Belgium) is one of the main tributaries of the Meuse River with a catchment area of 3500 km². About 50 % of the floods which occur in the Ourthe River catchment are due to ... [more ▼]

The Ourthe River (southeast of Belgium) is one of the main tributaries of the Meuse River with a catchment area of 3500 km². About 50 % of the floods which occur in the Ourthe River catchment are due to rainfall events associated with the melting of the snow which covers the Ardennes in winter. In this study, hydroclimatic conditions favourable to flooding were reconstructed over the period 1958-2014 using the regional climate model MAR (« Modèle Atmosphérique Régional ») forced by the ERA-interim reanalysis and by the NCEP1 reanalysis. As validation, the MAR results were compared to weather station-based data. A trends analysis was then performed in order to study the evolution of conditions favourable to flooding in the Ourthe River catchment. When the MAR model is forced by the NCEP1 reanalysis, results show a significant decrease in hydroclimatic conditions favourable to flooding because of a decrease in snow accumulation as well as a decrease in the frequency of extreme precipitation events in winter. When MAR is forced by the ERA-interim reanalysis, non-significant trends are found, which could be explained by an underestimation of the precipitation amount computed by the ERA-40 reanalysis before 1979. Further studies are needed to explain the decreasing trends in snow accumulation and extreme precipitation events. Moreover, an hydrological model could also be forced by the MAR outputs in order to improve flood detection. [less ▲]

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See detailEtude de l'évolution de l'enneigement dans les Hautes Fagnes (Belgique) au cours des cinquante dernières années à l'aide du modèle climatique régional MAR
Wyard, Coraline ULg; Fettweis, Xavier ULg; Erpicum, Michel ULg

in Erpicum, Michel (Ed.) Actes du XXVIIIe colloque annuel de l’Association Internationale de Climatologie : Modélisations et variabilités (2015, July)

The “Modèle Atmosphérique Régionale” MAR is a regional climate model originally developed to study the polar ice sheets. In this study, the MAR model has been adapted to Belgium in order to study the snow ... [more ▼]

The “Modèle Atmosphérique Régionale” MAR is a regional climate model originally developed to study the polar ice sheets. In this study, the MAR model has been adapted to Belgium in order to study the snow cover evolution of the High Fens (east of Belgium), a region covered by snow on average one to two months per year. As validation, we have sucessfully compared MAR based daily snow heights with snowcam-based and/or laser sensor-based observations over the period 2008-2013. Then, the model has been forced by ERA-Interim since 1958 to study the snow cover evolution during the last fifty years at the summit of Belgium. The results show no significant trend despite global warming. [less ▲]

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See detailSnow cover evolution during the last fifty years in the Hautes Fagnes (Belgium) using the regional climate MAR model
Wyard, Coraline ULg; Fettweis, Xavier ULg; Erpicum, Michel ULg

Conference (2015, April 16)

The MAR model is a regional climate model originally developped for the polar regions to study the surface mass balance. In this study, the MAR model has been adapted to Belgium in order to study the snow ... [more ▼]

The MAR model is a regional climate model originally developped for the polar regions to study the surface mass balance. In this study, the MAR model has been adapted to Belgium in order to study the snow cover evolution of the Hautes Fagnes (south-east of Belgium), a region covered by snow one to two months per year. As validation, we have sucessfully compared MAR based daily snow heights with snowcam-based observations. Then, the model has been forced by ERA-Interim since 1958 to study the snow cover evolution during the last fifty years at the summit of Belgium. The results show non-significant trend. [less ▲]

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See detailFuture projections of the Greenland ice sheet mass balance using the regional climate MAR model coupled with the GRISLI ice sheet model
Wyard, Coraline ULg; Fettweis, Xavier ULg; Ritz, Catherine

Poster (2015, April 14)

During the two last decades, the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) contribution to the global mean sea level rise has significantly increased. But, difficulties remain to assess GrIS future contribution because ... [more ▼]

During the two last decades, the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) contribution to the global mean sea level rise has significantly increased. But, difficulties remain to assess GrIS future contribution because of large uncertainties linked to the feedback between the surface mass balance (SMB) and GrIS topography changes. The regional climate MAR model has been coupled with the GRISLI ice sheet model, in order to account of this feedback in the future projections. The aim of this study is to assess the pertinence of the MAR-GRISLI coupling which requires long computation time. In order to identify GRISLI sensitivity to MAR forcing, GRISLI has been forced with various non-coupled (i.e. using a fixed topography), coupled and modified non-coupled MAR outputs. To adapt the non-coupled MAR outputs to the GRISLI topography changes, we use an interpolation technique based on SMB vs elevation vertical gradient. These experiences evaluate the performances/limits of this interpolation technique used to avoid a RCM-ice sheet model coupling. [less ▲]

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See detailEvaluation de la pertinence du couplage entre le modèle régional MAR et le modèle de calotte glaciaire GRISLI sur le Groenland
Wyard, Coraline ULg

Master's dissertation (2014)

During the two last decades, the Greenland ice sheet (GrIs) contribution to the global mean sea level (GMSL) rise has significantly increased. In the future, difficulties remain to assess the GrIs ... [more ▼]

During the two last decades, the Greenland ice sheet (GrIs) contribution to the global mean sea level (GMSL) rise has significantly increased. In the future, difficulties remain to assess the GrIs contribution to GMSL rise because of large uncertainties linked to the feedback between the surface mass balance (SMB) and the elevation of the GrIs. In 2013, Xavier Fettweis, my promoter, has coupled a regional climate model (RCM), the model MAR, with an ice sheet model (ISM), the model GRISLI, in order to account of this feedback and, in this way, to improve the assessment of the future GrIs contribution to the GMSL rise. The aim of this study is to assess the pertinence of the MAR−GRISLI coupling which requires long computation time. Nine imulations were carried out with GRISLI. Six of these simulations consisted in forcing GRISLI with several present days MAR outputs (SMB and surface temperature) in order to identify the GRISLI biases. The three last simulations consisted in forcing GRISLI until 2100 with future non-coupled, coupled and modified non- coupled MAR outputs in order to find a technique to avoid the coupling. The results show that initial conditions need to be improved and that the ice flow velocities required recalibration because an abnormal present-day thickening of the GrIs margins. Ice calving only depends on ice sheet extension because of constant ice flow velocities. The MAR−GRISLI coupling can be avoided until the middle of the 2080s. Beyond these years, the SMB correction is too large so that the thinning of the GrIs margins is overestimated. In a further study, the SMB correction could be reduced to avoid the MAR−GRISLI coupling over longer periods. GRISLI could be improved or replaced by a more complex ISM with dynamic ice flow velocities to enhance the results. [less ▲]

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