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See detailTien Shan geohazards database: Earthquakes and landslides
Havenith, Hans-Balder ULg; Strom, Alexander; Torgoev, Isakbek et al

in Geomorphology (in press)

In this paper we present new and review already existing landslide and earthquake data for a large part of the Tien Shan, Central Asia. For the same area, only partial databases for sub-regions have been ... [more ▼]

In this paper we present new and review already existing landslide and earthquake data for a large part of the Tien Shan, Central Asia. For the same area, only partial databases for sub-regions have been presented previously. They were compiled and new data were added to fill the gaps between the databases. Major new inputs are products of the Central Asia Seismic Risk Initiative (CASRI): a tentative digital map of active faults (even with indication of characteristic or possible maximum magnitude) and the earthquake catalogue of Central Asia until 2009 that was now updated with USGS data (to May 2014). The new compiled landslide inventory contains existing records of 1600 previously mapped mass movements and more than 1800 new landslide data. Considering presently available seismo-tectonic and landslide data, a target region of 1200 km (E–W) by 600 km (N–S) was defined for the production of more or less continuous geohazards information. This target region includes the entire Kyrgyz Tien Shan, the South-Western Tien Shan in Tajikistan, the Fergana Basin (Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan) as well as the Western part in Uzbekistan, the North-Easternmost part in Kazakhstan and a small part of the Eastern Chinese Tien Shan (for the zones outside Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, only limited information was available and compiled)... [less ▲]

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See detailTien Shan Geohazards Database: Landslide susceptibility analysis
Havenith, Hans-Balder ULg; Torgoev, Almazbek ULg; Schlögel, Romy et al

in Geomorphology (in press)

This paper is the second part of a new geohazards analysis applied to a large part of the Tien Shan, Central Asia, focused on landslide susceptibility computations that are based on recently compiled ... [more ▼]

This paper is the second part of a new geohazards analysis applied to a large part of the Tien Shan, Central Asia, focused on landslide susceptibility computations that are based on recently compiled geographic, geological and geomorphological data. The core data are a digital elevation model, an updated earthquake catalogue, an active fault map as well as a new landslide inventory. The most recently added digital data are a new simplified geological map, an annual precipitation map, as well as river and road network maps that were produced for the Kyrgyz and Tajik parts of the Tien Shan. On the basis of these records we determine landslide densities with respect to morphological (M), geological (G), river distance (R), precipitation (P), earthquake (E) and fault (F) distance factors. Correlations were also established between scarp locations and the slope angle, distance to rivers, curvature. These correlations show that scarps tend to be located on steeper slopes, farther from rivers and on more convex terrain than the entire landslides. On the basis of the landslide density values computed for each class of the aforementioned factors, two landslide susceptibility maps are created according to the Landslide Factor analysis: ... [less ▲]

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See detailThe Kambarata 2 blast-fill dam, Kyrgyz Republic: blast event, geophysical monitoring and dam structure modelling
Havenith, Hans-Balder ULg; Torgoev, Isakbek; Torgoev, Almazbek ULg et al

in Geoenvironmental Disasters (2015), 2(1), 1-15

Abstract Background The blast-and earth-fill dam of the Kambarata 2 hydropower station is situated in the seismically active Central Tien Shan region of the Kyrgyz Republic. More than 70% of the dam ... [more ▼]

Abstract Background The blast-and earth-fill dam of the Kambarata 2 hydropower station is situated in the seismically active Central Tien Shan region of the Kyrgyz Republic. More than 70% of the dam volume was produced during a blast event on December 22, 2009. In 2010– 2011, dam construction was completed after earth filling on top of the blasted material and installing concrete and clay screens together with bentonite grouts. A geophysical survey had been completed in 2012–2013, mainly to monitor the resistivities inside the dam. ... [less ▲]

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See detailLandslide Susceptibility, Hazard and Risk Mapping in Mailuu-Suu, Kyrgyzstan
Torgoev, Almazbek ULg; Havenith, Hans-Balder ULg

in Landslide Science and Practice (2013, October)

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See detailPrediction of landslide susceptibility in a seismically active high mountain region using data mining methods - a study from Maily-Say, Kyrgyzstan
Braun, Anika; Fernandez-Steeger, Tomas; Havenith, Hans-Balder ULg et al

in Reicherter, Klaus; Rudersdorf, Andreas; Grützner, Christoph (Eds.) Seismic Hazard, Critical Facilities and Slow Active Faults, Proceedings (2013, October)

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See detailReview of the Newmark method predicting seismic slope displacements - the focus on the Arias Intensity amplification factor
Torgoev, Almazbek ULg; Havenith, Hans-Balder ULg; Lamair, Laura ULg

in Proceedings of the International Symposium in Commemoration of the 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake (2013, May)

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See detailParametric numerical study of seismic slope stability and the Newmark method
Havenith, Hans-Balder ULg; Torgoev, Almazbek ULg; Lamair, Laura ULg

Conference (2013, April)

2D dynamic modelling of seismic slope stability is applied to a landslide-prone area in Central Asia, the Mailuu-Suu Valley, situated in the south of Kyrgyzstan. The calculations are made with models ... [more ▼]

2D dynamic modelling of seismic slope stability is applied to a landslide-prone area in Central Asia, the Mailuu-Suu Valley, situated in the south of Kyrgyzstan. The calculations are made with models constructed from over 30 profiles located in the target area, presenting different geological, tectonic and morphological settings. One part of the profiles were selected within landslide zones, the other part was selected in stable areas. Many of the landslides are complex slope failures involving falls, rotational sliding and/or planar sliding and flows. These input data were extracted from a 3D structural geological model built with the GOCAD software. Geophysical and geomechanical parameters were defined on the basis of results obtained by multiple surveys performed in the area over the past 15 years. These include geophysical investigation, seismological experiments and ambient noise measurements. Dynamic modelling of slope stability is performed with the UDEC version 4.01 software that is able to compute deformation of discrete elements. Inside these elements both elasto-plastic and purely elastic materials (similar to rigid blocks) were tested. Various parameter variations were tested to assess their influence on the final outputs. For a few models groundwater flow is included. The total parametric study involved more than 100 different models (about 800 computation hours). Preliminary results allow us to compare Newmark displacements computed using different GIS approaches (Jibson et al., 1998; Miles and Ho, 1999, among others) with the displacements computed using the original Newmark method (Newmark, 1965, here simulated seismograms were used) and displacements produced along joints by the corresponding 2D dynamical models. The generation of seismic amplification and its impact on peak-ground-acceleration, Arias Intensity and permanent slope movements (total and slip on joints) is assessed for numerous morphological-lithological settings (curvature, slope angle, surficial geology, various layer dips and orientations) throughout the target area. The final results of our studies should allow us to define the limitations of the simplified GIS-based Newmark displacement modelling; thus, the verified method would make landslide susceptibility and hazard mapping in seismically active regions more reliable. [less ▲]

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See detailAssessment of landslides activity in Maily‐Say Valley, Kyrgyz Tien Shan
Schlögel, Romy; Fernandez-Steeger, Tomas; Braun, Anika et al

in Landslide Science and Practice (2013)

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See detailParametric numerical study of seismic slope stability and verification of the Newmark method
Torgoev, Almazbek ULg; Havenith, Hans-Balder ULg

in Ugai, K; Wakai, A; Yagi, H (Eds.) Proceedings of the International Symposium on Earthquake-induced landslides, Kiryu, Japan, 2012 (2012, December)

2D dynamic modelling of seismic slope stability is applied to a landslide-prone area in Central Asia, the Mailuu-Suu Valley, situated in the south of Kyrgyzstan. The calculations are made with models ... [more ▼]

2D dynamic modelling of seismic slope stability is applied to a landslide-prone area in Central Asia, the Mailuu-Suu Valley, situated in the south of Kyrgyzstan. The calculations are made with models constructed from over 30 profiles located in the target area, presenting different geological, tectonic and morphological settings. One part of the profiles were selected within landslide zones, the other part was selected in stable areas. Many of the landslides are complex slope failures involving falls, rotational sliding and/or planar sliding and flows. These input data were extracted from a 3D structural geological model built with the GOCAD software. Geophysical and geomechanical parameters were defined on the basis of results obtained by multiple surveys performed in the area over the past 15 years. These include geophysical investigation, seismological experiments and ambient noise measurements. Dynamic modelling of slope stability is performed with the UDEC version 4.01 software that is able to compute deformation of discrete elements. Inside these elements both elasto-plastic and purely elastic materials (similar to rigid blocks) were tested. Various parameter variations were tested to assess their influence on the final outputs. For a few models groundwater flow is included. The total parametric study involved more than 100 different models (about 800 computation hours). [less ▲]

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See detailA Review of Recent Case Studies of Landslides Investigated in the Tien Shan Using Microseismic and Other Geophysical Methods
Torgoev, Almazbek ULg; Lamair, Laura ULg; Torgoev et al

in Ugai, K; Wakai, A; Yagi, H (Eds.) Proceedings of the International Symposium on Earthquake-induced landslides (2012, December)

This paper reviews recent case studies completed on landslides (and dams) with probable (post-) seismic origin or susceptible to seismic failure in the Tien Shan, Central Asia. The first investigation ... [more ▼]

This paper reviews recent case studies completed on landslides (and dams) with probable (post-) seismic origin or susceptible to seismic failure in the Tien Shan, Central Asia. The first investigation presented here was carried out in 2005 on the Kainama earthflow, mainly composed of loess, which occurred in April 2004 and killed 33 people. Geophysical and seismological were used to build a reliable 3D model of the geometry and properties of the subsurface layers. The paper will also present results from microseismic measurements on loess landslides in Tajikistan that partly have a seismic origin. They are located close to the area that was affected in 1949 by the M=7.4 Khait earthquake and the numerous landslides triggered during the event, including the Khait rock avalanche. [less ▲]

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