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See detailAssimilation of high-frequency radar currents in the Ligurian Sea
Barth, Alexander ULg; Chiggiato, Jacopo; Alvera Azcarate, Aïda ULg et al

Conference (2011, April)

The circulation in the Ligurian Sea is dominated by strong currents, namely the Western Corsican Current and the East Corsican Current, which jointly form the Northern Current. A high mesoscale activity ... [more ▼]

The circulation in the Ligurian Sea is dominated by strong currents, namely the Western Corsican Current and the East Corsican Current, which jointly form the Northern Current. A high mesoscale activity, including meanders and eddy formation, is associated to those energetic currents. The non-linear instability processes and apparently chaotic behavior of this current system make this region a challenging testbed for data assimilation. High-frequency radar surface currents have been measured by the NATO Undersea Research Centre (NURC), La Spezia, Italy from two sites at the Italian Coast (Isola Palmaria and San Rossore). Each of those sites measures the radial currents relative to the position of the radar system. This WERA system captures well the general circulation and mesoscale flow features. The present study shows an application of the assimilation of those measurements in a nested model con- figuration of the Ligurian Sea. It is assumed that the error in the model surface currents comes primarily from uncertainties in the lateral boundary conditions and surface wind fields. The objective of this study is to reduce the uncertainty in these forcing fields by data assimilation. An ensemble of 100 perturbed lateral boundary conditions and surface wind fields is created to take the uncertainty into account. Using an ensemble-smoother technique described in Barth et al, 2010 (Ocean Science) and Barth et al, 2010 (Ocean Dynamics, in press), improved estimates of the wind forcing and boundary conditions are obtained. By rerunning the model with the updated forcing fields, it is verified that the analyzed model solution is closer to the observed HF radar currents. This technique is similar to 4D-Var, but since it is based on the ensemble covariance between forcing fields and observations, it does not require the formulation of an adjoint. [less ▲]

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See detailSuper-ensemble techniques applied to wave forecast: performance and limitations
Lenartz, Fabian ULg; Beckers, Jean-Marie ULg; Chiggiato, Jacopo et al

in Ocean Science (2010), 6(2), 595-604

Nowadays, several operational ocean wave forecasts are available for a same region. These predictions may considerably differ, and to choose the best one is generally a difficult task. The super-ensemble ... [more ▼]

Nowadays, several operational ocean wave forecasts are available for a same region. These predictions may considerably differ, and to choose the best one is generally a difficult task. The super-ensemble approach, which consists in merging different forecasts and past observations into a single multi-model prediction system, is evaluated in this study. During the DART06 campaigns organized by the NATO Undersea Research Centre, four wave forecasting systems were simultaneously run in the Adriatic Sea, and significant wave height was measured at six stations as well as along the tracks of two remote sensors. This effort provided the necessary data set to compare the skills of various multi-model combination techniques. Our results indicate that a super-ensemble based on the Kalman Filter improves the forecast skills: The bias during both the hindcast and forecast periods is reduced, and the correlation coefficient is similar to that of the best individual model. The spatial extrapolation of local results is not straightforward and requires further investigation to be properly implemented. [less ▲]

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