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See detailHigh-resolution climate and land surface interactions modeling over Belgium: current state and decennial scale projections
Jacquemin, Ingrid ULg; Henrot, Alexandra-Jane ULg; Beckers, Veronique et al

Poster (2016, April 21)

The interactions between land surface and climate are complex. Climate changes can affect ecosystem structure and functions, by altering photosynthesis and productivity or inducing thermal and hydric ... [more ▼]

The interactions between land surface and climate are complex. Climate changes can affect ecosystem structure and functions, by altering photosynthesis and productivity or inducing thermal and hydric stresses on plant species. These changes then impact socio-economic systems, through e.g., lower farming or forestry incomes. Ultimately, it can lead to permanent changes in land use structure, especially when associated with other non-climatic factors, such as urbanization pressure. These interactions and changes have feedbacks on the climate systems, in terms of changing: (1) surface properties (albedo, roughness, evapotranspiration, etc.) and (2) greenhouse gas emissions (mainly CO2, CH4, N2O). In the framework of the MASC project (« Modelling and Assessing Surface Change impacts on Belgian and Western European climate »), we aim at improving regional climate model projections at the decennial scale over Belgium and Western Europe by combining high-resolution models of climate, land surface dynamics and socio-economic processes. The land surface dynamics (LSD) module is composed of a dynamic vegetation model (CARAIB) calculating the productivity and growth of natural and managed vegetation, and an agent-based model (CRAFTY), determining the shifts in land use and land cover. This up-scaled LSD module is made consistent with the surface scheme of the regional climate model (RCM: ALARO) to allow simulations of the RCM with a fully dynamic land surface for the recent past and the period 2000-2030. In this contribution, we analyze the results of the first simulations performed with the CARAIB dynamic vegetation model over Belgium at a resolution of 1km. This analysis is performed at the species level, using a set of 17 species for natural vegetation (trees and grasses) and 10 crops, especially designed to represent the Belgian vegetation. The CARAIB model is forced with surface atmospheric variables derived from the monthly global CRU climatology or ALARO outputs (from a 4 km resolution simulation) for the recent past and the decennial projections. Evidently, these simulations lead to a first analysis of the impact of climate change on carbon stocks (e.g., biomass, soil carbon) and fluxes (e.g., gross and net primary productivities (GPP and NPP) and net ecosystem production (NEP)). The surface scheme is based on two land use/land cover databases, ECOPLAN for the Flemish region and, for the Walloon region, the COS-Wallonia database and the Belgian agricultural statistics for agricultural land. Land use and land cover are fixed through time (reference year: 2007) in these simulations, but a first attempt of coupling between CARAIB and CRAFTY will be made to establish dynamic land use change scenarios for the next decades. A simulation with variable land use would allow an analysis of land use change impacts not only on crop yields and the land carbon budget, but also on climate relevant parameters, such as surface albedo, roughness length and evapotranspiration towards a coupling with the RCM. [less ▲]

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See detailClassifying simulated wheat yield responses to changes in temperature and precipitation across a european transect
Fronzek, S.; Pirttioja, N.; Carter, T. R. et al

Conference (2016, March)

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See detailAn ensemble of projections of wheat adaptation to climate change in europe analyzed with impact response surfaces
Ruiz-Ramos, M.; Ferrise, R.; Rodríguez, A. et al

Conference (2016, March)

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See detailModeling heat stress under different environmental conditions
Carabano, Maria-Jesus; Logar, Betka; Bormann, Jeanne et al

in Journal of Dairy Science (2016)

Renewed interest in heat stress effects on livestock productivity derives from climate change, which is expected to increase temperatures and the frequency of extreme weather events. This study aimed at ... [more ▼]

Renewed interest in heat stress effects on livestock productivity derives from climate change, which is expected to increase temperatures and the frequency of extreme weather events. This study aimed at evaluating the effect of temperature and humidity on milk production in highly selected dairy cattle populations across three European regions differing in climate and production systems to detect differences and similarities that can be used to optimize heat stress (HS) effect modeling. Milk, fat and protein test day data from official milk recording for years 1999 to 2010 in four Holstein populations located in the Walloon Region of Belgium (BEL), Luxembourg (LUX), Slovenia (SLO) and Southern Spain (SPA) were merged with temperature and humidity data provided by the state meteorological agencies. After merging, the number of test day records/cows per trait ranged from 686,726/49,655 in SLO to 1,982,047/136,746 in BEL. Values for the daily average and maximum temperature and humidity index (THIavg and THImax) ranges for THIavg/THImax were largest in SLO (22-74/28-84) in SLO and shortest in SPA (39-76/46-83). Change point techniques were used to determine comfort thresholds, which differed across traits and climatic regions. Milk yield showed an inverted U shaped pattern of response across the THI scale with a HS threshold around 73 THImax units. For fat and protein, thresholds were lower than for milk yield and were shifted around 6 THI units towards larger values in SPA compared with the other countries. Fat showed lower HS thresholds than protein traits in all countries. The traditional broken line model was compared to quadratic and cubic fits of the pattern of response in production to increasing heat loads. A cubic polynomial model allowing for individual variation in patterns of response and THIavg as heat load measure showed the best statistical features. Higher/lower producing animals showed less/more persistent production (quantity and quality) across the THI scale. The estimated correlations between comfort and THIavg values of 70 (which represents the upper end of the THIavg scale in BEL-LUX) were lower for BEL-LUX (0.70 - 0.80) than for SPA (0.83 - 0.85). Overall, animals producing in the more temperate climates and semi-extensive grazing systems of BEL and LUX showed HS at lower heat loads and more re-ranking across the THI scale than animals producing in the warmer climate and intensive indoor system of SPA. [less ▲]

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See detailL'agriculture devra s'adapter aux changements climatiques
Minet, Julien ULg

Article for general public (2015)

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See detailThe potential of OpenStreetMap for land use/land cover mapping
Minet, Julien ULg; Robert, Brieuc; Tychon, Bernard ULg

Conference (2015, October 29)

Land use and land cover (LULC) maps are important tools for the management of the environment, in particular for the modelling of biogeochemical cycles and climate. LULC maps are typically produced using ... [more ▼]

Land use and land cover (LULC) maps are important tools for the management of the environment, in particular for the modelling of biogeochemical cycles and climate. LULC maps are typically produced using supervised classification of satellite images supported by expert knowledge. Nowadays, the advance of the crowdsourced project OpenStreetMap (OSM) offers an alternative to official LULC maps. In OSM, LULC is usually mapped by manual digitalisation of satellite imagery and/or by the import of existing databases. We explored the potential of OSM to contribute to the improvement of an existing LULC map, Corine Land Cover (CLC), by comparing forest cover in Southern Belgium and Luxembourg. We focused on three forest types that were common to the two databases: coniferous, deciduous and mixed forest. Confusion matrices showed that the two databases differed in terms of classes over about one quarter of the forest area. Moreover, 9.9% and 8.0% of the forest area in OSM and CLC, respectively, were unmapped as forest area compared to the other database. Compared to CLC data, small patches of forest areas are mapped in OSM data. This study is a first attempt to show the potential of a crowdsourced project, i.e., OSM, to contribute to an official geodatabase. While current drawbacks of OSM such as the lack of completeness may limit its application in some operational applications, we claim that its large accessibility and its potentially high reactiveness makes OSM a serious alternative to existing geodatabase. [less ▲]

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See detailMilk production, milking frequency and rumination time of grazing dairy cows milked by a mobile milking robot.
Lessire, Françoise ULg; Hornick, Jean-Luc ULg; Minet, Julien ULg et al

in Conington, J; Klopcic, M; Lauridsen, C (Eds.) et al Book of abstracts of the 66th Annual meeting of the European Federation of animal science (2015, September 28)

In Europe, analysis of meteorological data shows that the average temperature has increased by ~1°C over the past hundred years (IPCC, 2013). Heat stress periods are thus expected to be more frequent even ... [more ▼]

In Europe, analysis of meteorological data shows that the average temperature has increased by ~1°C over the past hundred years (IPCC, 2013). Heat stress periods are thus expected to be more frequent even in temperate areas. The use of an automatic milking system (AMS) implies the need to stimulate cows’ traffic to the robot, especially with grazing cows. Describing how heat stress influenced cows’ traffic to the robot is the aim of this study. Grazing dairy cows milked by an automatic system (AMS) experienced heat stress (HS) periods, twice during the summer 2013 in July (J) and August (A). The daily temperature humidity index (THI) during these periods were higher than 75. Each HS period was compared with a “normal period”(N), presenting the same number of cows, similar lactation number, days in milk, distance to come back to the robot and an equal access to water. The first HS period of 5 days with a mean THI of 78.4 was chosen in J, and a second that lasted for 6 days in A with a THI value of 77.3. Heat stress periods were cut off with the same duration of days with no stress (N) and mean THI <70. Milk production, milkings and refusals to the robot during HS were compared with N periods. Milkings and refusals were significantly more numerous in HS periods in July (HS: 2.54 ± 0.11 vs N: 2.19 ± 0.08, 1.87 ± 0.20 vs 0.72 ± 0.16) but milk production dropped from 21.8 ±0.6 kg per cow and per day during N periods to 18.9 ± 0.8 kg in HS. In August, MY increased slightly during HS. This could be explained by less high ambient temperatures and decreased distance to walk inducing less energy expenditure. The increase in milkings and refusals to the robot during HS could be linked to water availability nearby the robot and confirmed previous findings (Lessire et al., 2014). [less ▲]

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See detailMonitoring surface water content using visible and short-wave infrared SPOT-5 data of wheat plots in irrigated semi-arid regions
Benabdelouahab, Tarik ULg; Balaghi, Riad; Hadria, Rachid et al

in International Journal of Remote Sensing (2015), 36(15), 4018-4036

Irrigated agriculture is an important strategic sector in arid and semi-arid regions. Given the large spatial coverage of irrigated areas, operational tools based on satellite remote sensing can ... [more ▼]

Irrigated agriculture is an important strategic sector in arid and semi-arid regions. Given the large spatial coverage of irrigated areas, operational tools based on satellite remote sensing can contribute to their optimal management. The aim of this study was to evaluate the potential of two spectral indices, calculated from SPOT-5 high-resolution visible (HRV) data, to retrieve the surface water content values (from bare soil to completely covered soil) over wheat fields and detect irrigation supplies in an irrigated area. These indices are the normalized difference water index (NDWI) and the moisture stress index (MSI), covering the main growth stages of wheat. These indices were compared to corresponding in situ measurements of soil moisture and vegetation water content in 30 wheat fields in an irrigated area of Morocco, during the 2012–2013 and 2013–2014 cropping seasons. NDWI and MSI were highly correlated with in situ measurements at both the beginning of the growing season (sowing) and at full vegetation cover (grain filling). From sowing to grain filling, the best correlation (R2 = 0.86; p < 0.01) was found for the relationship between NDWI values and observed soil moisture values. These results were validated using a k-fold cross-validation methodology; they indicated that NDWI can be used to estimate and map surface water content changes at the main crop growth stages (from sowing to grain filling). NDWI is an operative index for monitoring irrigation, such as detecting irrigation supplies and mitigating wheat water stress at field and regional levels in semi-arid areas. [less ▲]

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See detailZonage phénoclimatique et caractérisation des parcours naturels du Sénégal avec les données de télédétection satellitaire
Diouf, Abdoul Aziz ULg; Faye, G.; Minet, Julien ULg et al

in XXVIIIème Colloque de l’Association Internationale de Climatologie, Liège 1-5 juillet 2015 (2015, July 02)

Les métriques phénologiques qui expriment certains événements du cycle de vie des plantes, tels que l'émergence, la croissance et la sénescence, principalement liées aux conditions météorologiques et au ... [more ▼]

Les métriques phénologiques qui expriment certains événements du cycle de vie des plantes, tels que l'émergence, la croissance et la sénescence, principalement liées aux conditions météorologiques et au climat, ont été utilisées afin : (i) de déterminer, à travers les parcours naturels du Sénégal, des entités "phénoclimatiques" homogènes ou phénorégions par classification non-supervisée des images de la série temporelle (1999-2013); (ii) d’analyser l’homogénéité des phénorégions en comparant l’évolution interannuelle de l’indice et des quantités de précipitation et (iii) de donner leurs principales caractéristiques biophysiques. Les résultats obtenus montrent que le domaine pastoral sénégalais peut être subdivisé en trois phénorégions à partir de la grande intégrale du NDVIS10 qui donne les entités spatiales les plus homogènes dans lesquelles les paramètres biophysiques comportent une variation latitudinale caractéristique du Sahel [less ▲]

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See detailLe réseau scientifique wallon Agriculture - changement climatique
Minet, Julien ULg

Scientific conference (2015, May 20)

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See detailModelling carbon fluxes of forest and grassland ecosystems in Western Europe using the CARAIB dynamic vegetation model: evaluation against eddy covariance data.
Henrot, Alexandra-Jane ULg; François, Louis ULg; Dury, Marie ULg et al

in Geophysical Research Abstracts (2015, April), 17

Eddy covariance measurements are an essential resource to understand how ecosystem carbon fluxes react in response to climate change, and to help to evaluate and validate the performance of land surface ... [more ▼]

Eddy covariance measurements are an essential resource to understand how ecosystem carbon fluxes react in response to climate change, and to help to evaluate and validate the performance of land surface and vegetation models at regional and global scale. In the framework of the MASC project (« Modelling and Assessing Surface Change impacts on Belgian and Western European climate »), vegetation dynamics and carbon fluxes of forest and grassland ecosystems simulated by the CARAIB dynamic vegetation model (Dury et al., iForest - Biogeosciences and Forestry, 4:82-99, 2011) are evaluated and validated by comparison of the model predictions with eddy covariance data. Here carbon fluxes (e.g. net ecosystem exchange (NEE), gross primary productivity (GPP), and ecosystem respiration (RECO)) and evapotranspiration (ET) simulated with the CARAIB model are compared with the fluxes measured at several eddy covariance flux tower sites in Belgium and Western Europe, chosen from the FLUXNET global network (http://fluxnet.ornl.gov/). CARAIB is forced either with surface atmospheric variables derived from the global CRU climatology, or with in situ meteorological data. Several tree (e.g. Pinus sylvestris, Fagus sylvatica, Picea abies) and grass species (e.g. Poaceae, Asteraceae) are simulated, depending on the species encountered on the studied sites. The aim of our work is to assess the model ability to reproduce the daily, seasonal and interannual variablility of carbon fluxes and the carbon dynamics of forest and grassland ecosystems in Belgium and Western Europe. [less ▲]

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See detailunité: Eau-Environnement-Développement (ULg Campus Arlon): la télédétection au service de l'agriculture
Wellens, Joost ULg; Lang, Marie ULg; Benabdelouahab, Tarik et al

Diverse speeche and writing (2015)

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See detailRumination time, milk yield, milking frequency of grazing dairy cows milked by a mobile automatic system during mild heat stress
Lessire, Françoise ULg; Hornick, Jean-Luc ULg; Minet, Julien ULg et al

in Advances in Animal Biosciences (2015), 6(01), 12-14

Grazing dairy cows milked by an automatic system (AS) experienced mild heat stress (HS) periods, twice during the summer. The daily temperature humidity index (THI) during these periods were higher than ... [more ▼]

Grazing dairy cows milked by an automatic system (AS) experienced mild heat stress (HS) periods, twice during the summer. The daily temperature humidity index (THI) during these periods were higher than 72. Milk production, as well as milking frequency, rumination time and milk fat to protein ratio (F/P) during these periods were compared to adjacent periods with mean THI of 61. The daily milking frequency, the total number of visits to AS and the milk production were significantly higher in HS periods (2.12 vs 1.97, 2.99 vs 2.69, and 19.7 vs 18.5 kg milk per cow, respectively). There were significant interactions between times and periods for milking frequency and number of visits, while the daily rumination time was significantly lower (339 vs 419 min) and the F/P in milk tended to be decreased (1.17 vs 1.23). These results could be explained by changes in cow behaviour during HS periods. [less ▲]

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See detailWheat yield sensitivity to climate change across a European transect for a large ensemble of crop models
Pirttioja, N.; Carter, Timothy; Fronzek, S. et al

in Soussana, Jean-Francois (Ed.) Proceedings of the Climate Smart Agriculture 2015 conference (2015, March)

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See detailA crop model ensemble analysis of temperature and precipitation effects on wheat yield across a European transect using impact response surfaces"
Pirttioja, Nina; Carter, Timothy; Fronzek, Stefan et al

in Climate Research (2015), 65

This study aims to explore the utility of the impact response surface (IRS) approach for investigating model ensemble crop yield responses under a large range of changes in climate. IRSs of spring and ... [more ▼]

This study aims to explore the utility of the impact response surface (IRS) approach for investigating model ensemble crop yield responses under a large range of changes in climate. IRSs of spring and winter wheat (Triticum aestivum) yields were constructed from a 26-member ensemble of process-based crop simulation models for sites in Finland, Germany and Spain across a latitudinal transect in Europe. The sensitivity of modelled yield to systematic increments of changes in temperature (-2 to +9°C) and precipitation (-50 to +50%) was tested by modifying values of 1981–2010 baseline daily weather, with CO2 concentration fixed at 360 ppm. The IRS approach offers an effective method of portraying model behaviour under changing climate as well as advantages for analysing, comparing and presenting results from multi-model ensemble simulations. Though individual model behaviour may depart markedly from the average, ensemble median responses across sites and crop varieties indicate that yields decline with higher temperatures and decreased precipitation and increase with higher precipitation. Across the uncertainty ranges defined for the IRSs, yields are more sensitive to temperature than precipitation changes at the Finnish site while sensitivities are mixed at the German and Spanish sites. Precipitation effects diminish under higher temperature changes. While the bivariate and multi-model characteristics of the analysis impose some limits to interpretation, the IRS approach nonetheless provides additional insights into sensitivities to inter-model and inter-annual variability. Taken together, these sensitivities may help to pinpoint processes such as heat stress, vernalisation or drought effects requiring refinement in future model development. [less ▲]

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See detailLIVESTOCK SYSTEMS--TECHNICAL REPORT
Minet, Julien ULg; Diouf, Abdoul Aziz; Garba, Issa et al

Report (2015)

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See detailUncertainty in simulating biomass yield and carbon-water fluxes from grasslands under climate change
Sándor, Renata; Ma, Shaoxiu; Acutis, Marco et al

in Advances in Animal Biosciences (2015), 6(01), 49--51

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See detailSensitivity analysis for climate change impacts, adaptation and mitigation projection with pasture models
Bellocchi, G.; Ehrhardt, F.; Soussana, J. F. et al

in Climate-Smart Agriculture 2015 (2015)

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