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Predicting biomass and grain protein content using Bayesian methods Mansouri, Majdi ; Destain, Marie-France in Stochastic Environmental Research & Risk Assessment (2015) This paper deals with the problem of predicting biomass and grain protein content using improved particle filtering (IPF) based on minimizing the Kullback–Leibler divergence. The performances of IPF are ... [more ▼] This paper deals with the problem of predicting biomass and grain protein content using improved particle filtering (IPF) based on minimizing the Kullback–Leibler divergence. The performances of IPF are compared with those of the conventional particle filtering (PF) in two comparative studies. In the first one, we apply IPF and PF at a simple dynamic crop model with the aim to predict a single state variable, namely the winter wheat biomass, and to estimate several model parameters. In the second study, the proposed IPF and the PF are applied to a complex crop model (AZODYN) to predict a winter-wheat quality criterion, namely the grain protein content. The results of both comparative studies reveal that the IPF method provides a better estimation accuracy than the PF method. The benefit of the IPF method lies in its ability to provide accuracy related advantages over the PF method since, unlike the PF which depends on the choice of the sampling distribution used to estimate the posterior distribution, the IPF yields an optimum choice of this sampling distribution, which also utilizes the observed data. The performance of the proposed method is evaluated in terms of estimation accuracy, root mean square error, mean absolute error and execution times. [less ▲] Detailed reference viewed: 21 (3 ULg)Predicting Grain Protein Content of Winter Wheat Mansouri, Majdi ; Dumont, Benjamin ; Destain, Marie-France in ESANN 2014 Proceedings (2014, April 24) Detailed reference viewed: 34 (12 ULg)Bayesian methods for predicting and modelling winter wheat biomass Mansouri, Majdi ; Dumont, Benjamin ; Destain, Marie-France Poster (2014, February) The objectives of this paper are threefold. The first objective is to propose to use an Improved Particle Filtering (IPF) based on minimizing Kullback-Leibler divergence for crop models' predictions. The ... [more ▼] The objectives of this paper are threefold. The first objective is to propose to use an Improved Particle Filtering (IPF) based on minimizing Kullback-Leibler divergence for crop models' predictions. The performances of the proposed technique are compared with those of the conventional Particle Filtering (PF) for improving nonlinear crop model predictions. The main novelty of this task is to develop a Bayesian algorithm for nonlinear and non-Gaussian state and parameter estimation with better proposal distribution. The second objective is to investigate the effects of practical challenges on the performances of state estimation algorithms PF and IPF. Such practical challenges include (i) the effect of measurement noise on the estimation performances and (ii) the number of states and parameters to be estimated. The third objective is to use the state estimation techniques PF and IPF for updating prediction of nonlinear crop model in order to predict winter wheat biomass. PF and IPF are applied at a dynamic crop model with the aim to predict a state variable, namely the winter wheat biomass, and to estimate several model parameters. Furthermore, the effect of measurement noise (e.g., different signal-to-noise ratios) on the performances of PF and IPF is investigated. The results of the comparative studies show that the IPF provides a significant improvement over the PF because, unlike the PF which depends on the choice of sampling distribution used to estimate the posterior distribution, the IPF yields an optimum choice of the sampling distribution, which also accounts for the observed data. [less ▲] Detailed reference viewed: 83 (16 ULg)Parameter identiﬁcation of the STICS crop model, using an accelerated formal MCMC approach Dumont, Benjamin ; Leemans, Vincent ; Mansouri, Majdi et al in Environmental Modelling & Software (2014), 52 This study presents a Bayesian approach for the parameters’ identiﬁcation of the STICS crop model based on the recently developed Differential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis (DREAM) algorithm. The ... [more ▼] This study presents a Bayesian approach for the parameters’ identiﬁcation of the STICS crop model based on the recently developed Differential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis (DREAM) algorithm. The posterior distributions of nine speciﬁc crop parameters of the STICS model were sampled with the aim to improve the growth simulations of a winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) culture. The results obtained with the DREAM algorithm were initially compared to those obtained with a Nelder-Mead Simplex algorithm embedded within the OptimiSTICS package. Then, three types of likelihood functions implemented within the DREAM algorithm were compared, namely the standard least square, the weighted least square, and a transformed likelihood function that makes explicit use of the coefﬁcient of variation (CV). The results showed that the proposed CV likelihood function allowed taking into account both noise on measurements and heteroscedasticity which are regularly encountered in crop modelling [less ▲] Detailed reference viewed: 89 (31 ULg)Predicting Winter Wheat Biomass And Grain Protein Content Mansouri, Majdi ; Dumont, Benjamin ; Destain, Marie-France in Proceedings of the 12th International Conference on Precision Agriculture (2014) Detailed reference viewed: 13 (1 ULg)Bayesian methods for predicting LAI and soil water content Mansouri, Majdi ; Dumont, Benjamin ; Leemans, Vincent et al in Precision Agriculture (2014), 15(2), 184-201 LAI of winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) and soil water content of the topsoil (200 mm) and of the subsoil (500 mm) were considered as state variables of a dynamic soil-crop system. This system was ... [more ▼] LAI of winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) and soil water content of the topsoil (200 mm) and of the subsoil (500 mm) were considered as state variables of a dynamic soil-crop system. This system was assumed to progress according to a Bayesian probabilistic state space model, in which real values of LAI and soil water content were daily introduced in order to correct the model trajectory and reach better future evolution. The chosen crop model was mini STICS which can reduce the computing and execution times while ensuring the robustness of data processing and estimation. To predict simultaneously state variables and model parameters in this non-linear environment, three techniques were used: Extended Kalman Filtering (EKF), Particle Filtering (PF), and Variational Filtering (VF). The significantly improved performance of the VF method when compared to EKF and PF is demonstrated. The variational filter has a low computational complexity and the convergence speed of states and parameters estimation can be adjusted independently. Detailed case studies demonstrated that the root mean square error (RMSE) of the three estimated states (LAI and soil water content of two soil layers) was smaller and that the convergence of all considered parameters was ensured when using VF. Assimilating measurements in a crop model allows accurate prediction of LAI and soil water content at a local scale. As these biophysical properties are key parameters in the crop-plant system characterization, the system has the potential to be used in precision farming to aid farmers and decision makers in developing strategies for site-specific management of inputs, such as fertilizers and water irrigation. [less ▲] Detailed reference viewed: 92 (22 ULg)Prediction of non-linear time-variant dynamic crop model using bayesian methods Mansouri, Majdi ; Dumont, Benjamin ; Destain, Marie-France in John Stafford (Ed.) Precision agriculture '13 (2013, July) This work addresses the problem of predicting a non-linear time-variant leaf area index and soil moisture model (LSM) using state estimation. These techniques include the extended Kalman filter (EKF ... [more ▼] This work addresses the problem of predicting a non-linear time-variant leaf area index and soil moisture model (LSM) using state estimation. These techniques include the extended Kalman filter (EKF), particle filter (PF) and the more recently developed technique, variational filter (VF). In the comparative study, the state variables (the leaf-area index LAI, the volumetric water content of the layer 1, HUR1 and the volumetric water content of the layer 2, HUR2) are estimated from noisy measurements of these variables, and the various estimation techniques are compared by computing the estimation root mean square error with respect to the noise-free data. The results show that VF provides a significant improvement over EKF and PF. [less ▲] Detailed reference viewed: 50 (8 ULg)Modeling and Prediction of Time-Varying Environmental Data Using Advanced Bayesian Methods Mansouri, Majdi ; Dumont, Benjamin ; Destain, Marie-France in Masegosa, Antoçnio; Villacorta, Pablo; Cruz-Corona, Carlos (Eds.) et al Exploring Innovative and Successful Applications of Soft Computing (2013) The problem of state/parameter estimation represents a key issue in crop models which are nonlinear, non-Gaussian and include a large number of parameters. The prediction errors are often important due to ... [more ▼] The problem of state/parameter estimation represents a key issue in crop models which are nonlinear, non-Gaussian and include a large number of parameters. The prediction errors are often important due to uncertainties in the equations, the input variables, and the parameters. The measurements needed to run the model (input data), to perform calibration and validation are sometimes not numerous or known with some uncertainty. In these cases, estimating the state variables and/or parameters from easily obtained measurements can be extremely useful. In this work, we address the problem of modeling and prediction of leaf area index and soil moisture (LSM) using state estimation. The performances of various conventional and state-of-the-art state estimation techniques are compared when they are utilized to achieve this objective. These techniques include the extended Kalman filter (EKF), unscented Kalman filter (UKF), particle filter (PF), and the more recently developed technique variational Bayesian filter (VF). The objective of this work is to extend the state and parameter estimation techniques (i.e., EKF, UKF, PF and VF) to better handle nonlinear and non-Gaussian processes without a priori state information, by utilizing a time-varying assumption of statistical parameters. In this case, the state vector to be estimated at any instant is assumed to follow a Gaussian model, where the expectation and the covariance matrix are both random. The randomness of the expectation and the covariance of the state/parameter vector are assumed here to further capture the uncertainty of the state distribution. One practical choice of these distributions can be a Gaussian distribution for the expectation and a multi-dimensional Wishart distribution for the covariance matrix. The assumption of random mean and random covariance of the state leads to a probability distribution covering a wide range of tail behaviors, which allows discrete jumps in the state variables. [less ▲] Detailed reference viewed: 117 (27 ULg)Bayesian methods for predicting LAI and soil moisture Mansouri, Majdi ; Dumont, Benjamin ; Destain, Marie-France in Proceedings of the 11th International Conference on Precision Agriculture (2012) The prediction errors of crop models are often important due to uncertainties in the estimates of initial values of the states, in parameters, and in equations. The measurements needed to run the model ... [more ▼] The prediction errors of crop models are often important due to uncertainties in the estimates of initial values of the states, in parameters, and in equations. The measurements needed to run the model are sometimes not numerous or known with some uncertainty. In this paper, two Bayesian filtering methods were used to update the state variable values predicted by MiniSTICS model. The chosen state variates were the LAI (Leaf Area Index) of a wheat crop (Triticum aestivum L.) and the corresponding moisture content of two soil layers (0-20 cm and 30-50 cm). These state variates were estimated simultaneously with several parameters. The assessed filtering methods were the centralized Particle Filtering (PF) and the Variational Bayesian Filtering (VF). The former is known to be sensitive to the number of particles while the latter yields an optimal choice of the sampling distribution over the state variable by minimizing the Kullback-Leibler divergence. In fact, variational calculus leads to a simple Gaussian sampling distribution whose parameters (estimated iteratively) depends on the observed data. On basis of a case study, the VF method was found more efficient than the PF method. Indeed, with the VF, the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of the three estimated states was smaller and the convergence of the all parameters was ensured. [less ▲] Detailed reference viewed: 192 (23 ULg) |
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