Parametric numerical study of seismic slope stability and the Newmark method

Conference (2013, April)

2D dynamic modelling of seismic slope stability is applied to a landslide-prone area in Central Asia, the Mailuu-Suu Valley, situated in the south of Kyrgyzstan. The calculations are made with models ... [more ▼]

2D dynamic modelling of seismic slope stability is applied to a landslide-prone area in Central Asia, the Mailuu-Suu Valley, situated in the south of Kyrgyzstan. The calculations are made with models constructed from over 30 profiles located in the target area, presenting different geological, tectonic and morphological settings. One part of the profiles were selected within landslide zones, the other part was selected in stable areas. Many of the landslides are complex slope failures involving falls, rotational sliding and/or planar sliding and flows. These input data were extracted from a 3D structural geological model built with the GOCAD software. Geophysical and geomechanical parameters were defined on the basis of results obtained by multiple surveys performed in the area over the past 15 years. These include geophysical investigation, seismological experiments and ambient noise measurements. Dynamic modelling of slope stability is performed with the UDEC version 4.01 software that is able to compute deformation of discrete elements. Inside these elements both elasto-plastic and purely elastic materials (similar to rigid blocks) were tested. Various parameter variations were tested to assess their influence on the final outputs. For a few models groundwater flow is included. The total parametric study involved more than 100 different models (about 800 computation hours). Preliminary results allow us to compare Newmark displacements computed using different GIS approaches (Jibson et al., 1998; Miles and Ho, 1999, among others) with the displacements computed using the original Newmark method (Newmark, 1965, here simulated seismograms were used) and displacements produced along joints by the corresponding 2D dynamical models. The generation of seismic amplification and its impact on peak-ground-acceleration, Arias Intensity and permanent slope movements (total and slip on joints) is assessed for numerous morphological-lithological settings (curvature, slope angle, surficial geology, various layer dips and orientations) throughout the target area. The final results of our studies should allow us to define the limitations of the simplified GIS-based Newmark displacement modelling; thus, the verified method would make landslide susceptibility and hazard mapping in seismically active regions more reliable. [less ▲]

A Review of Recent Case Studies of Landslides Investigated in the Tien Shan Using Microseismic and Other Geophysical Methods

in Ugai, K; Wakai, A; Yagi, H (Eds.) Proceedings of the International Symposium on Earthquake-induced landslides (2012, December)

This paper reviews recent case studies completed on landslides (and dams) with probable (post-) seismic origin or susceptible to seismic failure in the Tien Shan, Central Asia. The first investigation ... [more ▼]

This paper reviews recent case studies completed on landslides (and dams) with probable (post-) seismic origin or susceptible to seismic failure in the Tien Shan, Central Asia. The first investigation presented here was carried out in 2005 on the Kainama earthflow, mainly composed of loess, which occurred in April 2004 and killed 33 people. Geophysical and seismological were used to build a reliable 3D model of the geometry and properties of the subsurface layers. The paper will also present results from microseismic measurements on loess landslides in Tajikistan that partly have a seismic origin. They are located close to the area that was affected in 1949 by the M=7.4 Khait earthquake and the numerous landslides triggered during the event, including the Khait rock avalanche. [less ▲]

Evidence of a changing size-frequency distribution of landslides in the Kyrgyz Tien Shan, Central Asia

in Earth Surface Processes & Landforms (2011), 36/12

There is a strong possibility that environmental change (whether climate or land use) will be manifest as changes in the size–frequency distribution of landslides. Here, evidence is presented for this ... [more ▼]

There is a strong possibility that environmental change (whether climate or land use) will be manifest as changes in the size–frequency distribution of landslides. Here, evidence is presented for this from western Kyrgyzstan, Central Asia. Remote sensing and spatial analysis have been applied to map mass movements in the central part of the Maily‐Say Valley and to detect recent landslide activations. The evolution of landslide activity over the past 50 years has been analysed on the basis of pre‐existing landslide maps and new analyses of aerial photographs as well as Quickbird images. Five inventories were produced for the years 1962 (based on the existing map of 1962 and aerial photographs of 1962), 1984 (based on the existing map of 1977 and aerial photographs of 1984), 1996 (based on aerial photographs of 1996), 2002 (based on the existing map of 2003 and Quickbird imagery of 2002) and 2007 (based on Quickbird imagery of 2007). The geomorphologic features contained in the catalogues represent the landslide bodies observed from remote imagery of the corresponding year. Mapped landslides are generally considered as the result of a series of slope failure events. Size–frequency analyses applied to the five landslide inventories show that both the number and size of unstable slopes increased from 1962 (162 objects) to 2007 (208 objects) and the power‐law exponent decreased over time. This changing power‐law exponent may indicate that landslide‐related hazards are increasing. This tendency is documented in more detail for two active landslide zones, one in the main valley and one located to the west of it. Landslide detection methods were used to assist the evolution of slope instabilities. Choosing appropriate thresholds, the image subtraction method based on normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) allowed accurate detection of new sliding activation in these two zones. This confirmed the results of the more extensive survey that there is a systematic shift in power law exponents and size–frequency distributions for Central Asian landslides. [less ▲]

Response spectra for the deep sediment-filled Rhone Valley in the Swiss Alps

in Soil Dynamics & Earthquake Engineering (2009), 29

We present numerical modeling of earthquake ground motion for various profiles across the Swiss Rhône Valley and characterize the seismic response in terms of spectral acceleration. First, we evaluate the ... [more ▼]

We present numerical modeling of earthquake ground motion for various profiles across the Swiss Rhône Valley and characterize the seismic response in terms of spectral acceleration. First, we evaluate the relative amplification of 2D with respect to 1D response. Then, we show how the selected bedrock spectrum influences the response spectra of the valley sites. Particular attention is paid to how the internal sediment structure and the often weakly constrained Q-factor shape the seismic response. Results obtained for the different profiles are compared with reference spectra (Swiss building code and Eurocode 8) and for one profile with recorded data as well. From this comparison, we infer that the surficial layer strongly influences spectral acceleration values between 0.1 and 1 s. The total thickness of sediments significantly affects the seismic response at larger periods around the fundamental period of the studied valley sections between 1.8 and 3.6 s. [less ▲]

Geophysical investigation and numerical modelling of unstable slopes: case-study of Kainama (Kyrgyzstan)

in Geophysical Journal International (2008), 175

The presence of massive Quaternary loess units at the eastern border of the Fergana Basin (Kyrgyzstan, Central Asia) makes this area particularly prone to the development of catastrophic loess earthflows ... [more ▼]

The presence of massive Quaternary loess units at the eastern border of the Fergana Basin (Kyrgyzstan, Central Asia) makes this area particularly prone to the development of catastrophic loess earthflows, causing damages and injuries almost every year. Efficient disaster management requires a good understanding of the main causes of these mass movements, that is, increased groundwater pressure and seismic shaking. This paper focuses on the Kainama earthflow, mainly composed of loess, which occurred in 2004 April. Its high velocity and the long run-out zone caused the destruction of 12 houses and the death of 33 people. In summer 2005, a field survey consisting of geophysical and seismological measurements was carried out along the adjacent slope. By combination and geostatistical analysis of these data, a reliable 3-D model of the geometry and properties of the subsurface layers, as shown in the first part of the paper, was created. The analysis of the seismological data allowed us to point out a correlation between the thickness of the loess cover and the measured resonance frequencies and associated amplification potential. The second part of this paper is focused on the study of the seismic response of the slope by numerical simulations, using a 2-D finite difference code named FLAC.Modelling of the seismic amplification potential along the slope confirmed the results obtained from the seismological survey—strong amplifications at the crest and bottom of the slope where there is a thick loess cover and almost no amplification in the middle part of the slope. Furthermore, dynamic slope stability analyses were conducted to assess the influence of local amplifications and increased groundwater pressures on the slope failure. The results of the dynamic modelling, although preliminary, show that a combination of seismic and hydrologic origin (pore pressure build-up during the seismic shaking) is the most probable scenario responsible for the 2004 failure. [less ▲]

Analysis of three-component ambient vibration array measurements

in Geophysical Journal International (2008), 172

Both synthetic and observed ambient vibration array data are analysed using high-resolution beam-forming. In addition to a classical analysis of the vertical component, this paper presents results derived ... [more ▼]

Both synthetic and observed ambient vibration array data are analysed using high-resolution beam-forming. In addition to a classical analysis of the vertical component, this paper presents results derived from processing horizontal components.We analyse phase velocities of fundamental and higher mode Rayleigh and Love waves, and particle motions (ellipticity) retrieved from H/V spectral ratios. A combined inversion with a genetic algorithm and a strategy for selecting possible model parameters allow us to define structural models explaining the data. The results from synthetic data for simple models with one or two layers of sediments suggest that, in most cases, the number of layers has to be reduced to a few sediment strata to find the original structure. Generally, reducing the number of soft-sediment layers in the inversion process with genetic algorithms leads to a class of models that are less smooth. They have a stronger impedance contrast between sediments and bedrock. Combining Love and Rayleigh wave dispersion curves with the ellipticity of the fundamental mode Rayleigh waves has some advantages. Scatter is reduced when compared to using structural models obtained only from Rayleigh wave phase velocity curves. By adding information from Love waves some structures can be excluded. Another possibility for constraining inversion results is to include supplementary geological or borehole information. Analysing radial components also can provide segments of Rayleigh wave dispersion curves for modes not seen on the vertical component. Finally, using ellipticity information allows us to confine the total depth of the soft sediments. For real sites, considerable variability in the measured phase velocity curves is observed. This comes from lateral changes in the structure or seismic sources within the array. Constraining the inversion by combining Love and Rayleigh wave information can help reduce such problems. Frequency bands in which the Rayleigh wave dispersion curves show considerable scatter are often better resolved by Love waves. Information from the horizontal component can be used to correctly assign the mode number to the different phase–velocity curve segments, especially when two modes seem to merge at osculation points. Such merging of modes is usually observed for Rayleigh waves and thus can be partly solved if additional information from the Love waves and the horizontal component of Rayleigh waves is considered. Whenever a site presents a velocity inversion below the top layer, Love wave data clearly helps to better constrain the solution. [less ▲]

S-wave velocity measurements applied to the seismic microzonation of Basel, Upper Rhine Graben

in Geophysical Journal International (2007), 170

An extensive S-wave velocity survey had been carried out in the frame of a recent seismic microzonation study of Basel and the border areas between Switzerland, France and Germany. The aim was to better ... [more ▼]

An extensive S-wave velocity survey had been carried out in the frame of a recent seismic microzonation study of Basel and the border areas between Switzerland, France and Germany. The aim was to better constrain the seismic amplification potential of the surface layers. The survey included single station (H/V spectral ratios) and ambient vibration array measurements carried out by the Swiss team, aswell as active S-wave velocity measurements performed by the German and French partners. This paper is focused on the application of the array technique, which consists in recording ambient vibrations with a number of seismological stations. Several practical aspects related to the field measurements are outlined. The signal processing aims to determine the dispersion curves of surface waves contained in the ambient vibrations. The inversion of the dispersion curve provides a 1-D S-wave velocity model for the investigated site down to a depth related to the size of the array. Since the size of arrays is theoretically not limited, arrays are known to be well adapted for investigations in deep sediment basins, such as the Upper Rhine Graben including the area of the city of Basel. In this region, 27 array measurements with varying station configurations have been carried out to determine the S-wave velocity properties of the geological layers down to a depth of 100–250 m. For eight sites, the outputs of the array measurements have been compared with the results of the other investigations using active sources, the spectral analysis of surface waves (SASW) and S-wave reflection seismics. Borehole information available for a few sites could be used to calibrate the geophysical measurements. By this comparison, the advantages and disadvantages of the array method and the other techniques are outlined with regard to the effectiveness of the methods and the required investigation depth. The dispersion curves measured with the arrays and the SASW technique were also combined and inverted simultaneously to use the advantages of both methods. Finally, the paper outlines and discusses the contribution of the S-wave velocity survey to the new seismic microzonation of the Basel region. In this regard one major outcome of the survey is the quantification of vertical and lateral changes of the S-wave velocity, due to changing lithology or changing compaction and degree of weathering of the layers. [less ▲]

Analysis of landslide susceptibility in the Suusamyr region, Tien Shan: statistical and geotechnical approach

in Landslides (2006), 3(1), 39-50

The Suusamyr region is located in the northern part of the Tien Shan Range in Central Asia. In 1992, this region was hit by the Ms = 7.3 Suusamyr earthquake triggering several large landslides along the ... [more ▼]

The Suusamyr region is located in the northern part of the Tien Shan Range in Central Asia. In 1992, this region was hit by the Ms = 7.3 Suusamyr earthquake triggering several large landslides along the Suusamyr Valley and on the southern slopes of the adjacent Suusamyr Range. One of these landslides had been investigated by geophysical and geotechnical methods in order to determine local trigger factors. The present paper focuses on the influence of geological and morphological factors upon landslide occurrence on a regional scale. The analysis is based on a digital data set including landslides triggered in 1992 and several older landslides as well as various types of digital elevation models (DEMs), ASTER image data, and geological and active fault maps. These data were combined to compute landslide susceptibility (LS) maps using statistical methods, Landslide Factor and Conditional Analyses (LFA, CA), as well as a geotechnical one, the Newmark's Method (NM). The landslide data set was also analyzed with respect to the size-frequency relationship. [less ▲]

Numerical modelling of seismic slope stability

in Lecture Notes in Earth Sciences (2004), 104

Earthquake ground-motions recorded worldwide have shown that many morphological and geological structures (topography, sedimentary basin) are prone to amplify the seismic shaking (San Fernando, 1971 ... [more ▼]

Earthquake ground-motions recorded worldwide have shown that many morphological and geological structures (topography, sedimentary basin) are prone to amplify the seismic shaking (San Fernando, 1971 [Davis and West 1973] Irpinia, 1980 [Del Pezzo et al. 1983]). This phenomenon, called site effects, was again recently observed in El Salvador when, on the 13th of January 2001, the country was struck by a M=7.6 earthquake. Indeed, while horizontal accelerations on a rock site at Berlin, 80 km from the epicentre, did not exceed 0.23 g, they reached 0.6 g at Armenia, 110 km from the epicentre. Armenia is located on a small hill underlaid by a few meters thick pyroclastic deposits. Both the local topography and the presence of surface layers are likely to have caused the observed amplification effects, which are supposed to have contributed to the triggering of some of the hundreds of landslides related to this seismic event (Murphy et al. 2002). In order to better characterize the way site effects may influence the triggering of landslides along slopes, 2D numerical elastic and elasto-plastic models were developed. Various geometrical, geological and seismic conditions were analysed and the dynamic behaviour of the slope under these conditions was studied in terms of creation and location of a sliding surface. Preliminary results suggest that the size of modelled slope failures is dependent on site effects. [less ▲]

Probabilistic PGA and Arias Intensity maps of Kyrgyzstan (Central Asia)

in Journal of Seismology (2003), 7(2), 203-220

New probabilistic seismic hazard and Arias Intensity maps have been developed for the territory of the Kyrgyz Republic and bordering regions. Data were mainly taken from the seismic catalogue of ... [more ▼]

New probabilistic seismic hazard and Arias Intensity maps have been developed for the territory of the Kyrgyz Republic and bordering regions. Data were mainly taken from the seismic catalogue of Kyrgyzstan and partly from the world seismic catalogue. On the base of seismicity and active tectonics, seismic zones were outlined over the area. For these, Gutenberg-Richter laws were defined using mainly instrumental data, but regarding also historical events. Attenuation of acceleration inside the target area could not be determined experimentally since existing strong motion data are insufficient. Therefore, empirical laws defined for other territories, principally Europe and China, were applied to the present hazard computations. Final maps were calculated with the SEISRISKIII program according to EUROCODE8 criteria, i.e. for a period of 50 years with 90% probability of non-exceedance. For long-term prediction, 100 years maps with 90% probability of non-exceedance have been developed. The procedure used for seismic hazard prediction in terms of PGA (Peak Ground Acceleration) was also applied to Arias intensities in order to be able to define regional seismogenic landslide hazard maps. [less ▲]