Currency Total Return Swaps: Valuation and Risk Factor Analysis; ; Hübner, Georges ![]() in Quantitative Finance (in press) Currency total return swaps (CTRS) are hybrid derivatives instruments that allow to simultaneously hedge against credit and currency risks. We develop a structural credit risk model to evaluate CTRS ... [more ▼] Currency total return swaps (CTRS) are hybrid derivatives instruments that allow to simultaneously hedge against credit and currency risks. We develop a structural credit risk model to evaluate CTRS premia. Empirical test on a sample of 23,005 price observations from 59 underlying issuers yields an average percentage error of around 10%. This indicates that, beyond interest rate risk, firm-specific factors are major drivers of the variations in the valuation of these instruments. Regression analysis of residuals shows that exchange rate determinants account for up to 40% of model pricing errors — indicating that a currency risk premium affects the CTRS price significantly but only marginally, which confirms the prevalence of credit risk in the pricing of CTRS. [less ▲] Detailed reference viewed: 13 (3 ULg) Strategic Analysis of Risk-Shifting Incentives with Convertible Debt; Hübner, Georges ; in Quarterly Journal of Finance (2011), 1(2), 293-321 Convertible debt eliminates asset substitution in a one-period setting (Green, 1984). But convertible debt terms are usually set before the asset substitution opportunity. This allows shareholders and ... [more ▼] Convertible debt eliminates asset substitution in a one-period setting (Green, 1984). But convertible debt terms are usually set before the asset substitution opportunity. This allows shareholders and convertible debtholders to play a strategic noncooperative game. Two risk-shifting Nash equilibria are attainable: pure asset substitution when, despite no conversion, shareholders benefit from shifting risk, and strategic conversion when, despite early conversion, convertible debtholders expropriate wealth from straight debtholders. Even when initial convertible debt is designed to minimize the risk-shifting likelihood, the risk of asset substitution remains economically substantial — contrasting with the agency theoretic rationale for issuing convertible debt. [less ▲] Detailed reference viewed: 19 (3 ULg) A Structural Balance Sheet Model of Sovereign Credit Risk; Hübner, Georges ; in Finance (2011), 1(2), 293-321 This paper studies sovereign credit spreads using a contingent claims model and a balance sheet representation of the sovereign economy. Analytical formulae for domestic and external debt values as well ... [more ▼] This paper studies sovereign credit spreads using a contingent claims model and a balance sheet representation of the sovereign economy. Analytical formulae for domestic and external debt values as well as for the financial guarantee are derived in a framework where recovery rate is endogenously determined as the solution of a strategic bargaining game. The approach allows to relate sovereign credit spreads to observable macroeconomic factors, and in particular accounts for contagion effects through the corporate and banking sectors. Pricing performance as well as predictions about credit spread determinants are successfully tested on the Brazilian economy. [less ▲] Detailed reference viewed: 16 (5 ULg) Portfolio Theory with Venture Capital; Hübner, Georges ![]() Conference (2010, May) This paper studies the contracting choices between an entrepreneur and venture capital investors in a portfolio context. We rely on the mean-variance framework and derive the optimal choices for an ... [more ▼] This paper studies the contracting choices between an entrepreneur and venture capital investors in a portfolio context. We rely on the mean-variance framework and derive the optimal choices for an entrepreneur with and without the presence of different kinds of venture capitalists. In particular, we show that the entrepreneur always has the incentive to share the risk and benefits of the venture whenever possible. On the basis of their objectives and characteristics, we distinguish the situations of the corporate, independent, and bank-sponsored venture capital funds. Our framework enables us to derive the optimal contract design for the entrepreneur, featuring the choice of investor, the entrepreneur's investment in the venture, and her dilution in the project's equity as a function of her bargaining power. This result allows us to characterize the choice of the investor depending on her cost of equity and debt capital. In addition to project size and risk, entrepreneur's risk aversion turns out to be a critical determinant of VC investor choice -- a finding which is strongly supported by a panel analysis of VC fund flows for 5 European countries over the 2002--2009 period. [less ▲] Detailed reference viewed: 70 (6 ULg) Asset Dynamics Estimation and Its Impact on CDS Pricing; Hübner, Georges ![]() in Ali, Paul; Gregoriou, Greg (Eds.) Credit Derivatives Handbook (2008) Detailed reference viewed: 8 (3 ULg) Credit derivatives with multiple debt issues; Hübner, Georges ![]() in Journal of Banking & Finance (2004), 28(5), 997-1021 We evaluate the most actively traded types of credit derivatives within a unified pricing framework that allows for multiple debt issues. Since firms default on all of their obligations, total debt is ... [more ▼] We evaluate the most actively traded types of credit derivatives within a unified pricing framework that allows for multiple debt issues. Since firms default on all of their obligations, total debt is instrumental in the likelihood of default and therefore in credit derivatives valuation. We use a single factor interest rate model where the exponential default frontier is based on total debt and is made coherent with observed bond prices. Analytical formulae are derived for credit default swaps, total return swaps (both fixed-for-fixed and fixed-for-floating), and credit risk options (CROs). Price behaviors and hedging properties of all these credit derivatives are investigated. Simulations document that credit derivatives prices may be significantly affected by terms of debt other than those of the reference obligation. The analysis of CROs indicates their superior ability to fine-tune the hedging of magnitude and arrival risks of default. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. [less ▲] Detailed reference viewed: 14 (1 ULg) |
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