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See detailModelling the distribution of key tree species used by lion tamarins in the Brazilian Atlantic forest under a scenario of future climate change
Raghunathan, N.; François, Louis ULg; Huynen, Marie-Claude ULg et al

in Regional Environmental Change (in press)

We used three IPCC climate change scenarios (A1B, A2 and B1) in a dynamic vegetation model (CARAIB), to determine the potential future distribution of 75 tree species used by two endemic primate species ... [more ▼]

We used three IPCC climate change scenarios (A1B, A2 and B1) in a dynamic vegetation model (CARAIB), to determine the potential future distribution of 75 tree species used by two endemic primate species from the Brazilian Atlantic Forest (BAF). Habitat conservation is a vital part of strategies to protect endangered species, and this is a new approach to understanding how key plant species needed for survival of golden lion tamarins (Leontopithecus rosalia) and golden-headed lion tamarins (L. chrysomelas) might be affected by climate change and what changes to their distribution are likely. The model accurately predicted the current distribution of BAF vegetation types, for 66 % of the individual tree species with 70 % agreement obtained for presence. In the simulation experiments for the future, 72 out of 75 tree species maintained more than 95 % of their original distribution and all species showed a range expansion. At the biome level, we note a substantial decrease in the sub-tropical forest area. There is some fragmentation of the savannah, which is encroached mostly by tropical seasonal forest. Where the current distribution shows a large sub-tropical forest biome, it has been replaced or encroached by tropical rainforest. The results suggested that the trees may benefit from an increase in temperature, if and only if soil water availability is not altered significantly, as was the case with climate simulations that were used. However, these results must be coupled with other information to maximise usefulness to conservation since BAF is already highly fragmented and subject to high anthropic pressure. © 2014 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg. [less ▲]

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See detailOutcomes from the MACSUR grassland model inter-comparison with the model CARAIB
Minet, Julien ULg; Laloy, Eric; Tychon, Bernard ULg et al

Conference (2014, October 15)

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See detailModelling the distribution of key tree species used by lion tamarins in the Brazilian Atlantic forest under a scenario of future climate change
Raghunathan, Poornima ULg; Hambuckers, Alain ULg; François, Louis ULg et al

in Regional Environmental Change (2014)

We used three IPCC climate change scenarios (A1B, A2 and B1) in a dynamic vegetation model (CARAIB), to determine the potential future distribution of 75 tree species used by two endemic primate species ... [more ▼]

We used three IPCC climate change scenarios (A1B, A2 and B1) in a dynamic vegetation model (CARAIB), to determine the potential future distribution of 75 tree species used by two endemic primate species from the Brazilian Atlantic Forest (BAF). Habitat conservation is a vital part of strategies to protect endangered species, and this is a new approach to understanding how key plant species needed for survival of golden lion tamarins (Leontopithecus rosalia) and golden-headed lion tamarins (L. chrysomelas) might be affected by climate change and what changes to their distribution are likely. The model accurately predicted the current distribution of BAF vegetation types, for 66 % of the individual tree species with 70 % agreement obtained for presence. In the simulation experiments for the future, 72 out of 75 tree species maintained more than 95 % of their original distribution and all species showed a range expansion. At the biome level, we note a substantial decrease in the sub-tropical forest area. There is some fragmentation of the savannah, which is encroached mostly by tropical seasonal forest. Where the current distribution shows a large sub-tropical forest biome, it has been replaced or encroached by tropical rainforest. The results suggested that the trees may benefit from an increase in temperature, if and only if soil water availability is not altered significantly, as was the case with climate simulations that were used. However, these results must be coupled with other information to maximise usefulness to conservation since BAF is already highly fragmented and subject to high anthropic pressure. [less ▲]

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See detailBayesian inference of a dynamic vegetation model for grassland
Minet, Julien ULg; Laloy, Eric; Tychon, Bernard ULg et al

Conference (2014, April 02)

As a part of the MACSUR task L2.4, we probabilistically calibrated the CARAIB dynamic vegetation model by Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation with the DREAMZS sampler.. CARAIB is a mechanistic ... [more ▼]

As a part of the MACSUR task L2.4, we probabilistically calibrated the CARAIB dynamic vegetation model by Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation with the DREAMZS sampler.. CARAIB is a mechanistic model that calculates the carbon assimilation of the vegetation as a function of the soil and climatic conditions, and can thus be used for simulating grassland production under cutting or grazing management. Bayesian model inversion was performed at 4 grassland sites across Europe: Oensingen, CH; Grillenburg, DE; Laqueuille, FR and Monte-Bodone, IT. Four daily measured variables from these sites: the Gross Primary Productivity (GPP), Net Ecosystem Exchange (NEE), Evapotranspiration (ET) and Soil Water Content (SWC) were used to sample 10 parameters related to rooting depth, stomatal conductance, specific leaf area, carbon-nitrogen ratio and water stresses. The maximized likelihood function therefore involved four objectives, whereas the applied Bayesian framework allowed for assessing the so called parameter posterior probability density function (pdf), which quantifies model parameter uncertainty caused by measurement and model errors. Sampling trials were performed using merged data from all sites (all-sites-sampling) and for each site (site-specific sampling) separately. The derived posterior parameter pdfs from the all-sites sampling and site-specific sampling runs showed differences in relation with the specificities of each site. Analysis of these distributions also revealed model sensitivity to parameters conditioned on the measured data, as well as parameter correlations. [less ▲]

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See detailModelling the Congo basin ecosystems with a dynamic vegetation model
Dury, Marie ULg; Hambuckers, Alain ULg; Trolliet, Franck ULg et al

Conference (2014, April)

The scarcity of field observations in some parts of the world makes difficult a deep understanding of some ecosystems such as humid tropical forests in Central Africa. Therefore, modelling tools are ... [more ▼]

The scarcity of field observations in some parts of the world makes difficult a deep understanding of some ecosystems such as humid tropical forests in Central Africa. Therefore, modelling tools are interesting alternatives to study those regions even if the lack of data often prevents sharp calibration and validation of the model projections. Dynamic vegetation models (DVMs) are process-based models that simulate shifts in potential vegetation and its associated biogeochemical and hydrological cycles in response to climate. Initially run at the global scale, DVMs can be run at any spatial scale provided that climate and soil data are available. In the framework of the BIOSERF project (“Sustainability of tropical forest biodiversity and services under climate and human pressure”), we use and adapt the CARAIB dynamic vegetation model (Dury et al., iForest - Biogeosciences and Forestry, 4:82-99, 2011) to study the Congo basin vegetation dynamics. The field campaigns have notably allowed the refinement of the vegetation representation from plant functional types (PFTs) to individual species through the collection of parameters such as the specific leaf area or the leaf C:N ratio of common tropical tree species and the location of their present-day occurrences from literature and available database. Here, we test the model ability to reproduce the present spatial and temporal variations of carbon stocks (e.g. biomass, soil carbon) and fluxes (e.g. gross and net primary productivities (GPP and NPP), net ecosystem production (NEP)) as well as the observed distribution of the studied species over the Congo basin. In the lack of abundant and long-term measurements, we compare model results with time series of remote sensing products (e.g. vegetation leaf area index (LAI), GPP and NPP). Several sensitivity tests are presented: we assess consecutively the impacts of the level at which the vegetation is simulated (PFTs or species), the spatial resolution and the initial land cover (potential or human-induced). First, we show simulations over the whole Congo basin at a 0.5◦ spatial resolution. Then, we present high-resolution simulations (1 km) carried out over different areas of the Congo basin, notably the DRC part of the WWF Lake Tele – Lake Tumba Landscape. Studied in the BIOSERF project, this area is characterized by a forest-savannah mosaic but also by swamp and flooded forest. In addition, forward transient projections of the model driven with the outputs of about thirty global cli- mate models (GCMs) from the new Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) will permit to outline the likely response of carbon pools to changing climate over the Congo basin during the 21th century. [less ▲]

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See detailModelling the Congo basin ecosystems with a dynamic vegetation model
Dury, Marie ULg; Hambuckers, Alain ULg; Trolliet, Franck ULg et al

Poster (2014, April)

The scarcity of field observations in some parts of the world makes difficult a deep understanding of some ecosystems such as humid tropical forests in Central Africa. Therefore, modelling tools are ... [more ▼]

The scarcity of field observations in some parts of the world makes difficult a deep understanding of some ecosystems such as humid tropical forests in Central Africa. Therefore, modelling tools are interesting alternatives to study those regions even if the lack of data often prevents sharp calibration and validation of the model projections. Dynamic vegetation models (DVMs) are process-based models that simulate shifts in potential vegetation and its associated biogeochemical and hydrological cycles in response to climate. Initially run at the global scale, DVMs can be run at any spatial scale provided that climate and soil data are available. In the framework of the BIOSERF project (“Sustainability of tropical forest biodiversity and services under climate and human pressure”), we use and adapt the CARAIB dynamic vegetation model (Dury et al., iForest - Biogeosciences and Forestry, 4:82-99, 2011) to study the Congo basin vegetation dynamics. The field campaigns have notably allowed the refinement of the vegetation representation from plant functional types (PFTs) to individual species through the collection of parameters such as the specific leaf area or the leaf C:N ratio of common tropical tree species and the location of their present-day occurrences from literature and available database. Here, we test the model ability to reproduce the present spatial and temporal variations of carbon stocks (e.g. biomass, soil carbon) and fluxes (e.g. gross and net primary productivities (GPP and NPP), net ecosystem production (NEP)) as well as the observed distribution of the studied species over the Congo basin. In the lack of abundant and long-term measurements, we compare model results with time series of remote sensing products (e.g. vegetation leaf area index (LAI), GPP and NPP). Several sensitivity tests are presented: we assess consecutively the impacts of the level at which the vegetation is simulated (PFTs or species), the spatial resolution and the initial land cover (potential or human-induced). First, we show simulations over the whole Congo basin at a 0.5◦ spatial resolution. Then, we present high-resolution simulations (1 km) carried out over different areas of the Congo basin, notably the DRC part of the WWF Lake Tele – Lake Tumba Landscape. Studied in the BIOSERF project, this area is characterized by a forest-savannah mosaic but also by swamp and flooded forest. In addition, forward transient projections of the model driven with the outputs of about thirty global cli- mate models (GCMs) from the new Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) will permit to outline the likely response of carbon pools to changing climate over the Congo basin during the 21th century. [less ▲]

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See detailCan a global dynamic vegetation model be used for both grassland and crop modeling at the local scale?
Minet, Julien ULg; Tychon, Bernard ULg; Jacquemin, Ingrid ULg et al

Poster (2014, February)

We report on the use of a dynamic vegetation model, CARAIB, within two modeling exercises in the framework of MACSUR. CARAIB is a physically-based, mechanistic model that calculates the carbon ... [more ▼]

We report on the use of a dynamic vegetation model, CARAIB, within two modeling exercises in the framework of MACSUR. CARAIB is a physically-based, mechanistic model that calculates the carbon assimilation of the vegetation as a function of the soil and climatic conditions. Within MACSUR, it was used in the model intercomparison exercises for grassland and crop modeling, in the LiveM 2.4 and CropM WP4 tasks, respectively. For grassland modeling, blind model runs at 11 locations were performed for various time ranges (few years). For crop modeling, a sensitivity analysis for building impact response surfaces (IRS) was performed, based on a bench of model runs at different levels of perturbation in the temperature and precipitation input data over 30 years. For grassland modeling, specific management functions accounting for the cutting or grazing of the grass were added to the model, in the framework of the MACSUR intercomparison. Initially developed for modeling the carbon dynamics of the natural vegetation, CARAIB was already adapted for crop modeling but further modifications regarding the management, i.e., yearly-dependent sowing dates, were introduced. For grassland modeling, simulation results will be further intercompared with other modeling groups, but preliminary results showed that the model could cope with the introduction of the grass cutting module. For crop modeling, building the IRS over 30 years permitted to assess the sensitivity of the model to temperature and precipitation changes. So far, the participation of CARAIB in the intercomparison exercises within MACSUR resulted in further improvements of the model by introducing new functionalities. [less ▲]

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See detailModelling the Holocene migrational dynamics of Fagus sylvatica L. and Picea abies (L.) H. Karst
Lehsten, Lehsten; Dullinger, Stefan; Hülber, Karl et al

in Global Ecology and Biogeography (2014)

Aim: Vegetation dynamics and the competitive interactions involved are assumed to restrict the ability of species to migrate. But in most migration modelling approaches disturbance-driven succession and ... [more ▼]

Aim: Vegetation dynamics and the competitive interactions involved are assumed to restrict the ability of species to migrate. But in most migration modelling approaches disturbance-driven succession and competition processes are reduced to simple assumptions or are even missing. The aim of this study was to test a combination of a migration model and a dynamic vegetation model to estimate the migration of tree species controlled by climate, environment and local species dynamics such as succession and competition. Location: Europe. Methods: To estimate the effect of vegetation dynamics on the migration of European beech and Norway spruce, we developed a post-process migration tool (LPJ-CATS). This tool integrates outputs of the migration model CATS and the dynamic vegetation model LPJ-GUESS. The model LPJ-CATS relies on a linear dependency between the dispersal kernel and migration rate and is based on the assumption that competition reduces fecundity. Results: Simulating potential migration rates with the CATS model, which does not account for competition and disturbance, resulted in mean Holocene migra- tion rates of 435 ± 55 and 330 ± 95 m year−1 for the two species Picea abies and Fagus sylvatica, respectively. With LPJ-CATS, these mean migration rates were reduced to 250 ± 75 and 170 ± 60 m year−1 for spruce and beech, respectively. Moreover, LPJ-CATS simulated migration pathways of these two species that gen- erally comply well with those documented in the palaeo-records. Main conclusions: Our ‘hybrid’ modelling approach allowed for the simulation of generally realistic Holocene migration rates and pathways of the two study species on a continental scale. It suggests that competition can considerably modify spread rates, but also the magnitude of its effect depends on how close climate conditions are to the niche requirements of a particular species. [less ▲]

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See detailSensitivity of carbonate weathering to soil CO2 production by biological activity along a temperate climate transect
Calmels, D.; Gaillardet, J.; François, Louis ULg

in Chemical Geology (2014), 390

We investigated the controls on carbonate weathering in a well-drained pure carbonate area subject to strong environmental gradients, the Jura Mountains, Western Europe. The water chemistry of sampled ... [more ▼]

We investigated the controls on carbonate weathering in a well-drained pure carbonate area subject to strong environmental gradients, the Jura Mountains, Western Europe. The water chemistry of sampled springs and resurgences is dominated by Ca2+ (87 to 96Eq% of the cationic charge) and HCO3 - (90 to 97Eq% of the anionic charge), reflecting the overwhelming imprint of calcium carbonate dissolution by atmospheric/biogenic CO2. Ca2+ concentration, which directly gives access to the amount of calcium carbonate dissolved per unit of water runoff, shows a gradual two-fold decrease (from 3000 to 1400μmol/L) along the elevation gradient (from 300 to 1200m). After discussing the possible influence of each environmental parameter on the observed water chemistry gradient, a decreasing soil pCO2 (the main source of acidity) with increasing altitude appears as the most likely explanation. As no spatial and temporal record of soil pCO2 are available for the Jura Mountains, we performed soil pCO2 modeling using the ecological and hydrological ASPECTS model that allows reconstructing carbon and water exchange fluxes between the vegetation, soil and atmosphere. Modeling results suggest that soil pCO2 decreases with altitude in response to both the change in vegetation species from deciduous-dominated forest in the lowlands to evergreen-dominated forest above 800m (responsible for 65% of the variation) and the change in climate and soil properties (responsible for 35% of the variation). Carbonate weathering would thus be strongly sensitive to the type of vegetation, which drives both temporal and spatial variations of soil carbon and water budgets. Based on field observations, we show that carbonate weathering rates are 20-30% higher under deciduous vegetation cover than under conifers (at a given water runoff value), in agreement with modeling results. Chemical denudation rates of carbonate in the Jura Mountains vary from 152 to 375t/km2/yr, corresponding to 60-150mm/ka of carbonate being removed. Carbonate weathering within the 10,000km2 of the study area accounts for an atmospheric CO2 consumption of 0.3 TgC/yr, showing that carbonate rocks have an enhanced capacity of atmospheric CO2 neutralization at least transiently. This study demonstrates that carbonate weathering is sensitive to the ecosystem dynamics, a conclusion that might be much more general, and suggests that carbonate weathering and associated CO2 consumption fluxes quickly react to any global change or land use modification. [less ▲]

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See detailImplementing agricultural land-use in the CARAIB dynamic vegetation model
François, Louis ULg; Jacquemin, Ingrid ULg; Fontaine, Corentin et al

Conference (2014)

CARAIB (Dury et al., iForest - Biogeosciences and Forestry, 4:82-99, 2011) is a state-of-the-art dynamic vegetation model with various modules dealing with (i) soil hydrology, (ii) photosynthesis/stomatal ... [more ▼]

CARAIB (Dury et al., iForest - Biogeosciences and Forestry, 4:82-99, 2011) is a state-of-the-art dynamic vegetation model with various modules dealing with (i) soil hydrology, (ii) photosynthesis/stomatal regulation, (iii) carbon allocation and biomass growth, (iv) litter/soil carbon dynamics, (v) vegetation cover dynamics, (vi) seed dispersal, and (vii) vegetation fires. Climate and atmospheric CO2 are the primary inputs. The model calculates all major water and CO2/carbon fluxes and pools. It can be run with plant functional types or species (up to 100 different species) at various spatial scales, from the municipality to country or continental levels. Within the VOTES project (Fontaine et al., Journal of Land Use Science, 2013, DOI:10.1080/1747423X.2013.786150), the model has been improved to include crops and meadows, and some modules have been written to translate model outputs into quantitative indicators of ecosystem services (e.g., evaluate crop yield from net primary productivity or calculate soil erosion from runoff, slope, grown species and various soil attributes). The model was run over an area covering four municipalities in central Belgium, where land-use is dominated by crops, meadows, housing and some forests and was introduced in the model at the land parcel level. Simulations were also performed for the future. In these simulations, CARAIB was combined with the Aporia Agent-Based Model, to project land-use changes up to 2050. This approach is currently extended within the MASC project (funded by Belgian Science Policy, BELSPO) to the whole Belgian territory (at 1 km2) and to Western Europe (at 20 km x 20 km). [less ▲]

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See detailMiddle Miocene climate and vegetation model reconstructions and their validation with the NECLIME database
François, Louis ULg; Henrot, Alexandra-Jane ULg; Utescher, Torsten et al

in Geophys. Res. Abstracts (2014), 16

The NECLIME database gathers data of the fossil flora recorded at many localities around the world at different times of the Miocene. François et al. (Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology ... [more ▼]

The NECLIME database gathers data of the fossil flora recorded at many localities around the world at different times of the Miocene. François et al. (Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology, 304, 359–378, 2011) have presented a new method for evaluating palaeoclimate model simulations from such fossil floras. In this method, palaeovegetation is simulated from climate model outputs, using a dynamic vegetation model. Model vegetation reconstruction is then compared to the vegetation cover indicated by the fossil flora record at the various localities, using a common classification of plant functional types (PFTs) in the data and the model. Here, we apply this method to test several published Middle Miocene climate simulations conducted with General Circulation Models of different complexity: (a) Planet Simulator, (b) FOAM-LMDZ4, (c) MPI-ESM, (d) CCSM3.0 and (4) CESM1.0. Corresponding palaeovegetation distributions are simulated with the CARAIB dynamic vegetation model, in which an upgraded vegetation classification involving 26 PFTs has been imple- mented. The NECLIME palaeoflora data from 154 localities distributed worldwide have been translated in terms of the presence/absence of these PFTs. A comparison of models and data is then undertaken globally and in selected regions of the world, using all available localities. The level of agreement varies among models, among PFTs and among regions. For instance, some models are able to produce tropical and subtropical PFTs in Europe consistently with the data, but the agreement for these PFTs may be much poorer in other parts of the world, such as in northeastern Eurasia. [less ▲]

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See detailTowards Participatory Integrated Valuation and Modelling of Ecosystem Services under Land-use Change
Fontaine, C.; Dendoncker, N.; De Vreese, R. et al

in Journal of Land Use Science (2014), 9

The lack of consideration for Ecosystem Services (ES) values in current decision-making is recognised as one of the main reasons leading to an intense competition and arguably unsustainable use of well ... [more ▼]

The lack of consideration for Ecosystem Services (ES) values in current decision-making is recognised as one of the main reasons leading to an intense competition and arguably unsustainable use of well-located available land. In this paper, we present a framework for the Valuation Of Terrestrial Ecosystem Services (VOTES), aiming at structuring a methodology that is applicable for valuing ES in a given area through a set of indicators that are both meaningful for local actors and scientifically constructed. Examples from a case study area in central Belgium are used to illustrate the methodology: a stepwise procedure starting with the valuation of ES at present. The valuation of the social, biophysical and economic dimensions of ES are based on current land-use patterns. Subsequently, scenarios of land-use change are used to explore potential losses (and/or gains) of ES in the future of the study area. With the VOTES framework, we aim at [1] incorporating stakeholders inputs to widen the valuation process and increase trust in policy-oriented approach; [2] integrating valuation of ES with a sustainable development stance accounting for land-use change; and [3] developing suggestions to policy-makers for integrating ES monitoring in policy developments. [less ▲]

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See detailThe Coexistence Approach--theoretical background and practical considerations of using plant fossils for climate quantification
Utescher, T.; Bruch, A. A.; Erdei, B. et al

in Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology (2014), 410

The Coexistence Approach was established by Mosbrugger and Utescher (1997) as a plant-based method to re- construct palaeoclimate by considering recent climatic distribution ranges of the nearest living ... [more ▼]

The Coexistence Approach was established by Mosbrugger and Utescher (1997) as a plant-based method to re- construct palaeoclimate by considering recent climatic distribution ranges of the nearest living relatives of each fossil taxon. During its existence for over more than 15 years, its basics have been tested and reviewed in comparison with other terrestrial and marine climate reconstruction techniques and climate modelling data. However, some controversies remain about its underlying data or its applicability in general. In view of these controversies this paper discusses the power and limitations of the Coexistence Approach by summarising past results and new developments. We give insights into the details and problems of each step of the application from the assignment of the fossil plant to the most suitable nearest living relative, the crucial consideration of the usefulness of specific taxa towards their climatic values and the correct interpretation of the software-based suggested palaeoclimatic intervals. Furthermore, we reflect on the fundamental data inte- grated in the Coexistence Approach by explaining different concepts and usages of plant distribution information and the advantages and disadvantages of modern climatic maps. Additionally, we elaborate on the importance of continually updating the information incorporated in the database due to new findings in e.g., (palaeo-)botany, meteorology and computer technology. Finally, for a transparent and appropriate use, we give certain guidelines for future applications and emphasize to users how to carefully consider and discuss their results. We show the Coexistence Approach to be an adaptive method capable of yielding palaeoclimatic and palaeoenvironmental information through time and space. [less ▲]

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See detailGlobal comparison of light use efficiency models for simulating terrestrial vegetation gross primary production based on the LaThuile database
Yuan, W.; Cai, W.; Xia, J. et al

in Agricultural and Forest Meteorology (2014), 192-193

Simulating gross primary productivity (GPP) of terrestrial ecosystems has been a major challenge in quantifying the global carbon cycle. Many different light use efficiency (LUE) models have been ... [more ▼]

Simulating gross primary productivity (GPP) of terrestrial ecosystems has been a major challenge in quantifying the global carbon cycle. Many different light use efficiency (LUE) models have been developed recently, but our understanding of the relative merits of different models remains limited. Using CO2 flux measurements from multiple eddy covariance sites, we here compared and assessed major algorithms and performance of seven LUE models (CASA, CFix, CFlux, EC-LUE, MODIS, VPM and VPRM). Comparison between simulated GPP and estimated GPP from flux measurements showed that model performance differed substantially among ecosystem types. In general, most models performed better in capturing the temporal changes and magnitude of GPP in deciduous broadleaf forests and mixed forests than in evergreen broadleaf forests and shrublands. Six of the seven LUE models significantly underestimated GPP during cloudy days because the impacts of diffuse radiation on light use efficiency were ignored in the models. CFlux and EC-LUE exhibited the lowest root mean square error among all models at 80% and 75% of the sites, respectively. Moreover, these two models showed better performance than others in simulating interannual variability of GPP. Two pairwise comparisons revealed that the seven models differed substantially in algorithms describing the environmental regulations, particularly water stress, on GPP. This analysis highlights the need to improve representation of the impacts of diffuse radiation and water stress in the LUE models. © 2014 Elsevier B.V. [less ▲]

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See detailAnalysis of the global atmospheric methane budget using ECHAM-MOZ simulations for present-day, pre-industrial time and the Last Glacial Maximum
Basu, A.; Schultz, M. G.; Schröder, S. et al

in Atmospheric Chemistry & Physics Discussions (2014), 14

Atmospheric methane concentrations increased considerably from pre-industrial (PI) to present times largely due to anthropogenic emissions. However, firn and ice core records also document a notable rise ... [more ▼]

Atmospheric methane concentrations increased considerably from pre-industrial (PI) to present times largely due to anthropogenic emissions. However, firn and ice core records also document a notable rise of methane levels between the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and the pre-industrial era, the exact cause of which is not entirely clear. This study investigates these changes by analyzing the methane sources and sinks at each of these climatic periods. Wetlands are the largest natural source of methane and play a key role in determining methane budget changes in particular in the absence of anthropogenic sources. Here, a simple wetland parameterization suitable for coarse-scale climate simulations over long periods is introduced, which is derived from a high- resolution map of surface slopes together with various soil hydrology parameters from the CARAIB vegetation model. This parameterization was implemented in the chem- istry general circulation model ECHAM5-MOZ and multi-year time slices were run for LGM, PI and present-day (PD) climate conditions. Global wetland emissions from our parameterization are 72 Tg yr [less ▲]

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See detailCARAIB USER'S GUIDE
Minet, Julien ULg; Jacquemin, Ingrid ULg; François, Louis ULg

Learning material (2013)

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See detailTesting palaeoclimate and palaeovegetation model reconstructions with palaeovegetation data : an application to the Middle Miocene
François, Louis ULg; Utescher, Torsten; Hamon, Noémie et al

Poster (2013, April)

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See detailRates of consumption of atmospheric CO2 through the weathering of loess during the next 100 yr of climate change
Goddéris, Y.; Brantley, S. L.; François, Louis ULg et al

in Biogeosciences (2013), 10

Quantifying how C fluxes will change in the future is a complex task for models because of the coupling between climate, hydrology, and biogeochemical reactions. Here we investigate how pedogenesis of the ... [more ▼]

Quantifying how C fluxes will change in the future is a complex task for models because of the coupling between climate, hydrology, and biogeochemical reactions. Here we investigate how pedogenesis of the Peoria loess, which has been weathering for the last 13 kyr, will respond over the next 100 yr of climate change. Using a cascade of numerical models for climate (ARPEGE), vegetation (CARAIB) and weathering (WITCH), we explore the effect of an increase in CO2 of 315 ppmv (1950) to 700 ppmv (2100 projection). The increasing CO2 results in an increase in temperature along the entire transect. In contrast, drainage increases slightly for a focus pedon in the south but decreases strongly in the north. These two variables largely determine the behavior of weathering. In addition, although CO2 production rate increases in the soils in response to global warming, the rate of diffusion back to the atmosphere also increases, maintaining a roughly constant or even decreasing CO2 concentration in the soil gas phase. Our simulations predict that temperature increasing in the next 100 yr causes the weathering rates of the silicates to increase into the future. In contrast, the weathering rate of dolomite – which consumes most of the CO2 – decreases in both end members (south and north) of the transect due to its retrograde solubility. We thus infer slower rates of advance of the dolomite reaction front into the subsurface, and faster rates of advance of the silicate reaction front. However, additional simulations for 9 pedons located along the north–south transect show that the dolomite weathering advance rate will increase in the central part of the Mississippi Valley, owing to a maximum in the response of vertical drainage to the ongoing climate change. The carbonate reaction front can be likened to a terrestrial lysocline because it represents a depth interval over which carbonate dissolution rates increase drastically. However, in contrast to the lower pH and shallower lysocline expected in the oceans with increasing atmospheric CO2, we predict a deeper lysocline in future soils. Furthermore, in the central Mississippi Valley, soil lysocline deepening accelerates but in the south and north the deepening rate slows. This result illustrates the complex behavior of carbonate weathering facing short term global climate change. Predicting the global response of terrestrial weathering to increased atmospheric CO2 and temperature in the future will mostly depend upon our ability to make precise assessments of which areas of the globe increase or decrease in precipitation and soil drainage. [less ▲]

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See detailA plant's perspective of extremes: Terrestrial plant responses to changing climatic variability
Reyer, C.; Leuzinger, S.; Ramming, A. et al

in Global Change Biology (2013), 19

We review observational, experimental and model results on how plants respond to extreme climatic conditions induced by changing climatic variability. Distinguishing between impacts of changing mean ... [more ▼]

We review observational, experimental and model results on how plants respond to extreme climatic conditions induced by changing climatic variability. Distinguishing between impacts of changing mean climatic conditions and changing climatic variability on terrestrial ecosystems is generally underrated in current studies. The goals of our review are thus (1) to identify plant processes that are vulnerable to changes in the variability of climatic variables rather than to changes in their mean, and (2) to depict/evaluate available study designs to quantify responses of plants to changing climatic variability. We find that phenology is largely affected by changing mean climate but also that impacts of climatic variability are much less studied but potentially damaging. We note that plant water relations seem to be very vulnerable to extremes driven by changes in temperature and precipitation and that heatwaves and flooding have stronger impacts on physiological processes than changing mean climate. Moreover, interacting phenological and physiological processes are likely to further complicate plant responses to changing climatic variability. Phenological and physiological processes and their interactions culminate in even more sophisticated responses to changing mean climate and climatic variability at the species and community level. Generally, observational studies are well suited to study plant responses to changing mean climate, but less suitable to gain a mechanistic understanding of plant responses to climatic variability. Experiments seem best suited to simulate extreme events. In models, temporal resolution and model structure are crucial to capture plant responses to changing climatic variability. We highlight that a combination of experimental, observational and /or modeling studies have the potential to overcome important caveats of the respective individual approaches. [less ▲]

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See detailPaleoproductivity during the middle Miocene carbon isotope events: A data-model approach
Diester-Haass, Liselotte; Billups, Katharina; Jacquemin, Ingrid ULg et al

in Paleoceanography (2013), 28

To what extent are individual middle Miocene eccentricity-scale benthic foraminiferal carbon isotope maxima (the so-called CM events) related to changes in marine export productivity? Here we use benthic ... [more ▼]

To what extent are individual middle Miocene eccentricity-scale benthic foraminiferal carbon isotope maxima (the so-called CM events) related to changes in marine export productivity? Here we use benthic foraminiferal accumulation rates from three sites in the Pacific and Southern Oceans and a geochemical box model to assess relationships between benthic foraminiferal δ13C records, export productivity, and the global carbon cycle. Results from Deep Sea Drilling Project Hole 588 and Ocean Drilling Program Site 747 show a distinct productivity maximum during CM 6 at 13.8 Ma, the time of major expansion of ice on Antarctica. Productivity maxima during other CM events are only recorded at high-latitude Site 747. A set of numerical experiments tests whether changes in foraminiferal δ13C records (CM events) and export productivity can be simulated solely by sea level fluctuations and the associated changes in global weathering-deposition cycles, by sea level fluctuations plus global climatic cooling, and by sea level fluctuations plus invigorated ocean circulation. Consistent with data, the periodic forcing of sea level and albedo (and associated weathering cycles) produces δ13C variations of the correct temporal spacing, albeit with a reduced amplitude. A productivity response of the correct magnitude is achieved by enhancing ocean circulation during cold periods. We suggest that the pacing of middle Miocene δ13C fluctuations is associated with cyclical sea level variations. The amplitude, however, is muted perhaps due to the competing effects of a time-lagged response to sea level lowstands but an immediate response to invigorated ocean circulation during cold phases. [less ▲]

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