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See detailModeling climate change impacts on groundwater resources using transient stochastic climatic scenarios
Goderniaux, Pascal ULg; Brouyère, Serge ULg; Blenkinsop, Stephen et al

in Water Resources Research (2011), 47

Several studies have highlighted the potential negative impact of climate change on groundwater reserves but additional work is required to help water managers to plan for future changes. In particular ... [more ▼]

Several studies have highlighted the potential negative impact of climate change on groundwater reserves but additional work is required to help water managers to plan for future changes. In particular, existing studies provide projections for a stationary climate representative of the end of the century, although information is demanded for the near-future. Such time-slice experiments fail to account for the transient nature of climatic changes over the century. Moreover, uncertainty linked to natural climate variability is not explicitly considered in previous studies. In this study, we substantially improve upon the state-of-the-art by using a sophisticated transient weather generator (WG) in combination with an integrated surface-subsurface hydrological model (Geer basin, Belgium) developed with the finite element modelling software 'HydroGeoSphere'. This version of the WG enables the stochastic generation of large numbers of equiprobable climatic time series, representing transient climate change, and used to assess impacts in a probabilistic way. For the Geer basin, 30 equiprobable climate change scenarios from 2010 to 2085 have been generated for each of 6 different RCMs. Results show that although the 95% confidence intervals calculated around projected groundwater levels remain large, the climate change signal becomes stronger than that of natural climate variability by 2085. Additionally, the WG ability to simulate transient climate change enabled the assessment of the likely timescale and associated uncertainty of a specific impact, providing managers with additional information when planning further investment. This methodology constitutes a real improvement in the field of groundwater projections under climate change conditions. [less ▲]

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See detailHow can large scale integrated surface - subsurface hydrological model be used to evaluate long term climate change impact on groundwater reserves
Goderniaux, Pascal ULg; Brouyère, Serge ULg; Fowler, Hayley J. et al

in Proceeding of the 7th international conference on calibration and reliability in groundwater modeling (2009, September)

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See detailState-of-the-art climate change scenarios in AquaTerra
Fowler, Hayley J; Blenkinsop, Stephen; Burton, Aidan et al

in AquaTerra Final Conference. Programme & Proceedings (2009, March)

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See detailProducing transient climate change scenarios for AquaTerra catchments
Blenkinsop, Stephen; Burton, Aidan; Fowler, Hayley J et al

Poster (2009, March)

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See detailLarge scale surface – subsurface hydrological model to assess climate change impacts on groundwater reserves
Goderniaux, Pascal ULg; Brouyère, Serge ULg; Fowler, Hayley J. et al

in Journal of Hydrology (2009), 373

Estimating the impacts of climate change on groundwater represents one of the most difficult challenges faced by water resources specialists. One difficulty is that simplifying the representation of the ... [more ▼]

Estimating the impacts of climate change on groundwater represents one of the most difficult challenges faced by water resources specialists. One difficulty is that simplifying the representation of the hydrological system often leads to discrepancies in projections. This study provides an improved methodology for the estimation of the impacts of climate change on groundwater reserves, where a physically-based surface – subsurface flow model is combined with advanced climate change scenarios for the Geer basin (465 km²), Belgium. Coupled surface–subsurface flow is simulated with the finite element model HydroGeoSphere. The simultaneous solution of surface and subsurface flow equations in HydroGeoSphere, as well as the internal calculation of the actual evapotranspiration as a function of the soil moisture at each node of the defined evaporative zone, improve the representation of interdependent processes like recharge, which is crucial in the context of climate change. More simple models or externally coupled models do not provide the same level of realism. Fully integrated surface – subsurface flow models have recently gained attention, but have not been used in the context of climate change impact studies. Climate change simulations were obtained from 6 regional climate model (RCM) scenarios assuming the SRES A2 emission (medium-high) scenario. These RCM scenarios were downscaled using a quantile mapping bias-correction technique that, rather than applying a correction only to the mean, forces the probability distributions of the control simulations of daily temperature and precipitation to match the observed distributions. The same corrections are then applied to RCM scenarios for the future. Climate change scenarios predict hotter and drier summer and warmer and wetter winters. The combined use of an integrated surface – subsurface modelling approach, a spatial representation of the evapotranspiration processes and sophisticated climate change scenarios improves the model realism and projections of climate change impacts on groundwater reserves. For the climatic scenarios considered, the integrated flow simulations show that significant decreases are expected in the groundwater levels (up to 8 meters) and in the surface water flow rates (between 9% and 33%) by 2080. [less ▲]

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See detailReport on the development of the Geer Hydrological model. Final results about climate change impacts evaluation.
Goderniaux, Pascal ULg; Brouyère, Serge ULg; Orban, Philippe ULg et al

Report (2008)

In the framework of Workpackage BASIN R3 Meuse, the Hydrology Group of the University of Liège (Belgium) has developed a hydrological model of the Geer sub-catchment, in order to assess climate change ... [more ▼]

In the framework of Workpackage BASIN R3 Meuse, the Hydrology Group of the University of Liège (Belgium) has developed a hydrological model of the Geer sub-catchment, in order to assess climate change impacts on groundwater reserves. The water resource Systems Research Laboratory of the Newcastle University has produced the climate change scenarios applied on the hydrological model. This report describes the methodology used, the implementation of the hydrological model, the climate change scenarios and the results of the study. [less ▲]

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