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See detailASsessment of modelling uncertainties in long-TERm climate and sea level change projections"Aster" : final report
Fichefet, T; Loutre, M.-F.; Goosse, H. et al

Report (2012)

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See detailEvaluating climate model performance with various parameter sets using observations over the recent past
Loutre, M.-F.; Mouchet, Anne ULg; Fichefet, T. et al

in Climate of the Past (2011), 7

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See detailImpact of Greenland and Antarctic ice sheet interactions on climate sensitivity
Goelzer, H.; Huybrechts, P.; Loutre, M.-F. et al

in Climate Dynamics (2011), 37(5-6), 1005-1018

We use the Earth system model of intermediate complexity LOVECLIM to show the effect of coupling interactive ice sheets on the climate sensitivity of the model on a millennial time scale. We compare the ... [more ▼]

We use the Earth system model of intermediate complexity LOVECLIM to show the effect of coupling interactive ice sheets on the climate sensitivity of the model on a millennial time scale. We compare the response to a 2xCO2 warming scenario between fully coupled model versions including interactive Greenland and Antarctic ice sheet models and model versions with fixed ice sheets. For this purpose an ensemble of different parameter sets have been defined for LOVECLIM, covering a wide range of the model's sensitivity to greenhouse warming, while still simulating the present-day climate and the climate evolution over the last millennium within observational uncertainties. Additional freshwater fluxes from the melting ice sheets have a mitigating effect on the model's temperature response, leading to generally lower climate sensitivities of the fully coupled model versions. The mitigation is effectuated by changes in heat exchange within the ocean and at the sea-air interface, driven by freshening of the surface ocean and amplified by sea-ice-related feedbacks. The strength of the effect depends on the response of the ice sheets to the warming and on the model's climate sensitivity itself. With the ensemble approach in this study we cover a wide range of possible model responses. [less ▲]

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See detailIce and sea level change projections with the Earth system model of intermediate complexity LOVECLIM
Goelzer, H.; Huybrechts, P.; Loutre, M. F. et al

Conference (2010, October)

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See detailAssessment of modelling uncertainties in long-term climate projections: the ASTER project
Loutre, M. F.; Mouchet, Anne ULg; Fichefet, T. et al

Conference (2010, October)

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See detailImpact of Greenland and Antarctic ice sheet interactions on model climate sensitivity
Goelzer, H; Huybrechts, P; Loutre, M-F et al

Conference (2010, May 07)

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See detailEarth and sea-level change projections with the Earth system model of intermediate complexity LOVECLIM
Goelzer, H.; Huybrechts, P.; Loutre, M. F. et al

Conference (2010, May)

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See detailLe réchauffement climatique est réel et l’Homme en est le principal responsable
Deleersnijder, E.; Bard, E.; Crucifix, M. et al

Article for general public (2010)

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See detailDescription of the Earth system model of intermediate complexity LOVECLIM version 1.2
Goosse, H.; Brovkin, V.; Fichefet, T. et al

in Geoscientific Model Development (2010), 3(2), 603-633

The main characteristics of the new version 1.2 of the three-dimensional Earth system model of intermediate complexity LOVECLIM are briefly described. LOVECLIM 1.2 includes representations of the ... [more ▼]

The main characteristics of the new version 1.2 of the three-dimensional Earth system model of intermediate complexity LOVECLIM are briefly described. LOVECLIM 1.2 includes representations of the atmosphere, the ocean and sea ice, the land surface (including vegetation), the ice sheets, the icebergs and the carbon cycle. The atmospheric component is ECBilt2, a T21, 3-level quasi-geostrophic model. The ocean component is CLIO3, which consists of an ocean general circulation model coupled to a comprehensive thermodynamic-dynamic sea-ice model. Its horizontal resolution is of 3° by 3°, and there are 20 levels in the ocean. ECBilt-CLIO is coupled to VECODE, a vegetation model that simulates the dynamics of two main terrestrial plant functional types, trees and grasses, as well as desert. VECODE also simulates the evolution of the carbon cycle over land while the ocean carbon cycle is represented by LOCH, a comprehensive model that takes into account both the solubility and biological pumps. The ice sheet component AGISM is made up of a three-dimensional thermomechanical model of the ice sheet flow, a visco-elastic bedrock model and a model of the mass balance at the ice-atmosphere and ice-ocean interfaces. For both the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, calculations are made on a 10 km by 10 km resolution grid with 31 sigma levels. LOVECLIM1.2 reproduces well the major characteristics of the observed climate both for present-day conditions and for key past periods such as the last millennium, the mid-Holocene and the Last Glacial Maximum. However, despite some improvements compared to earlier versions, some biases are still present in the model. The most serious ones are mainly located at low latitudes with an overestimation of the temperature there, a too symmetric distribution of precipitation between the two hemispheres, and an overestimation of precipitation and vegetation cover in the subtropics. In addition, the atmospheric circulation is too weak. The model also tends to underestimate the surface temperature changes (mainly at low latitudes) and to overestimate the ocean heat uptake observed over the last decades. [less ▲]

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See detailModel sensitivities and carbon cycle - climate feedbacks: a study with an Earth System Model
Mouchet, Anne ULg; Loutre, M. F.; Goelzer, H. et al

Poster (2009, November)

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See detailModelling uncertainties in the climate of the last millennium : The ASTER project
Loutre, M. F.; Mouchet, Anne ULg; Fichefet, T. et al

Poster (2009, April 21)

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See detailAssessment of modelling uncertainties in long-term climate and sea level change projections "Aster"
Fichefet, T.; Loutre, M.-F.; Goosse, H. et al

Report (2009)

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See detailModelling Uncertainties in the Climate of the Last Millennium: the ASTER Project
Loutre, M.; Mouchet, Anne ULg; Fichefet, T. et al

Poster (2008, December 01)

The LOVECLIM model (Driesschaert et al., 2007; Goosse et al., 2007) is used to simulate the climate of the last millennium with several 'climate' parameter sets yielding different sensitivities of the ... [more ▼]

The LOVECLIM model (Driesschaert et al., 2007; Goosse et al., 2007) is used to simulate the climate of the last millennium with several 'climate' parameter sets yielding different sensitivities of the climate and the carbon cycle model. The purpose of these simulations is twofold. We intend to assess first the role of the carbon cycle on the climate, and second, the ability of the different selected parameter sets to drive the model within the range of the observed climate, and further to assess the uncertainty related to these parameters. The high frequency variability of the forcings is taken into account. For each set of parameters, LOVECLIM is driven by the natural evolution of insolation, solar irradiance and stratospheric aerosol concentrations due to volcanic activity as well as by changes caused by human activities such as deforestation, CO2 emission or concentration changes, changes in concentrations of greenhouse gases other than CO2 (including ozone) and in sulphate aerosol load. Several transient experiments are conducted for each parameter set. A first transient simulation (CONC) is forced with reconstructed atmospheric CO2 concentration. In the next two simulations, the emissions of carbon are taken into account, the model computing the corresponding atmospheric CO2 concentration. First (EMIS), the emissions due both to the land use changes and the fossil fuel burning are provided. Second (EFOR), only the emissions from fossil fuel burning are provided in addition to the vegetation change related to deforestation. The Northern Hemisphere annual mean temperatures simulated by the model according to the different parameter sets and carbon cycle sensitivities do not show striking differences. The general pattern shows slightly warmer conditions in the early part of the simulation and cooler ones during the Little Ice Age. At last, the global warming of the last century is also clearly simulated. The response of the carbon cycle to the evolution of forcings over the last millennium does not differ much among experiments although there is a much larger spread when considering different emission scenarios (e.g. EFOR and EMIS). Sensitivity tests to the amplitude of the variation of the total solar irradiance (TSI) are performed; a very first quick look at the simulations does not show significant differences in the pattern of the simulated climate in response to modification in the TSI amplitude. Further analysis must be conducted. Climate response to different schemes of deforestation will also be presented. Driesschaert E., Fichefet T., Goosse H., Huybrechts P., Janssens I., Mouchet A., Munhoven G., Brovkin V., and Weber S. L., 2007. Modelling the influence of Greenland ice sheet melting on the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation during the next millennia. Geophys. Res. Lett., 34:L1070, 2007. Goosse H., Driesschaert E., Fichefet T., and Loutre M.F., 2007. Information on the early Holocene climate constrains the summer sea ice projections for the 21st century Clim. Past 3, 683-692. [less ▲]

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See detailCarbon Cycle and Climate Sensitivity in an Earth System Model
Mouchet, Anne ULg; Loutre, M.; Fichefet, T. et al

Poster (2008, December)

The sensitivity of the potential feedbacks between climate and biogeochemical cycles (BGC) is adressed with the help of LOVECLIM, a global three-dimensional Earth system model of intermediate complexity ... [more ▼]

The sensitivity of the potential feedbacks between climate and biogeochemical cycles (BGC) is adressed with the help of LOVECLIM, a global three-dimensional Earth system model of intermediate complexity. Key physical or biogeochemical parameters of LOVECLIM are varied within their range of uncertainty in order to provide an ensemble of parameter sets resulting in contrasted climate and global carbon cycle sensitivities. The selected climate parameter sets lead to a climate sensitivity ranging from 2 to 4°C and a reduction of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC) ranging from 20 to 60% after 1 kyr in response to identical external forcings. The key parameters for the carbon cycle were chosen among those with the largest impact on the marine biogeochemical cycle and on the response of atmospheric CO2 to emission scenario. We then analyze the results of freshwater hosing experiments in which both the climate parameters and the BGC parameters are modified. These experiments allow to examine the impact of changes in climate sensitivity and of MOC reduction over the biogeochemical cycles as well as to assess the potential feedback from the carbon cycle onto the climate. A decreasing MOC directly impacts the ocean biogeochemistry. Most of the model setups show a decline in export production although some parameter sets yield reorganisation of the large scale ocean circulation, which leads to different behaviour of the ocean biogeochemistry. The atmospheric carbon is also affected by a decrease of the MOC. While most parameter sets cause a modest increase in atmospheric CO2, consecutive to the decrease of the continental vegetation, some model versions exhibit an amplification of the atmospheric CO2 response to the forcing. The mechanisms leading to the different responses for the different parameter sets are examined and discussed. [less ▲]

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See detailOcean biogeochemical cycles and climate sensitivity in an Earth system model
Mouchet, Anne ULg; Loutre, M. F.; Fichefet, T. et al

Conference (2008, October)

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See detailHow do ice sheets impact on climate sensitivity and ocean meridional overturning circulation?
Loutre, M. F.; Fichefet, T.; Goosse, H. et al

Poster (2008, April 17)

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See detailOcean biogeochemical cycles and climate sensitivity in an Earth system model
Mouchet, Anne ULg; Loutre, M. F.; Fichefet, T. et al

Conference (2008, April 14)

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See detailLong-term climate commitments projected with climate-carbon cycle models
Plattner, G. K.; Knutti, R.; Joos, F. et al

in Journal of Climate (2008), 21(12), 2721-2751

Eight earth system models of intermediate complexity (EMICs) are used to project climate change commitments for the recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC's) Fourth Assessment Report ... [more ▼]

Eight earth system models of intermediate complexity (EMICs) are used to project climate change commitments for the recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC's) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). Simulations are run until the year 3000 A. D. and extend substantially farther into the future than conceptually similar simulations with atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) coupled to carbon cycle models. In this paper the following are investigated: 1) the climate change commitment in response to stabilized greenhouse gases and stabilized total radiative forcing, 2) the climate change commitment in response to earlier CO2 emissions, and 3) emission trajectories for profiles leading to the stabilization of atmospheric CO2 and their uncertainties due to carbon cycle processes. Results over the twenty-first century compare reasonably well with results from AOGCMs, and the suite of EMICs proves well suited to complement more complex models. Substantial climate change commitments for sea level rise and global mean surface temperature increase after a stabilization of atmospheric greenhouse gases and radiative forcing in the year 2100 are identified. The additional warming by the year 3000 is 0.6-1.6 K for the low-CO2 IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) B1 scenario and 1.3-2.2 K for the high-CO2 SRES A2 scenario. Correspondingly, the post-2100 thermal expansion commitment is 0.3-1.1 m for SRES B1 and 0.5-2.2 m for SRES A2. Sea level continues to rise due to thermal expansion for several centuries after CO2 stabilization. In contrast, surface temperature changes slow down after a century. The meridional overturning circulation is weakened in all EMICs, but recovers to nearly initial values in all but one of the models after centuries for the scenarios considered. Emissions during the twenty-first century continue to impact atmospheric CO2 and climate even at year 3000. All models find that most of the anthropogenic carbon emissions are eventually taken up by the ocean (49%-62%) in year 3000, and that a substantial fraction (15%-28%) is still airborne even 900 yr after carbon emissions have ceased. Future stabilization of atmospheric CO2 and climate change requires a substantial reduction of CO2 emissions below present levels in all EMICs. This reduction needs to be substantially larger if carbon cycle-climate feedbacks are accounted for or if terrestrial CO2 fertilization is not operating. Large differences among EMICs are identified in both the response to increasing atmospheric CO2 and the response to climate change. This highlights the need for improved representations of carbon cycle processes in these models apart from the sensitivity to climate change. Sensitivity simulations with one single EMIC indicate that both carbon cycle and climate sensitivity related uncertainties on projected allowable emissions are substantial. [less ▲]

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