References of "Fettweis, Xavier"
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See detailSurface solar radiation modelling over 1900-2014: comparison between the regional climate model MAR and reanalyses
Wyard, Coraline ULiege; Doutreloup, Sébastien ULiege; Belleflamme, Alexandre ULiege et al

Poster (2017, September 04)

Many studies show that the surface solar radiation has underwent large variations over the second half of the 20th century as a result of variations in cloud cover and aerosol loading in the atmosphere ... [more ▼]

Many studies show that the surface solar radiation has underwent large variations over the second half of the 20th century as a result of variations in cloud cover and aerosol loading in the atmosphere. However, it is difficult to build strong conclusions before the 1950s because of the observations scarcity. The evolution of the surface solar radiation has been reconstructed over 1900-2014 using the regional model MAR (« Modèle Atmosphérique Régional ») which has recently been chosen to be part of the EURO-CORDEX project, thanks to the CORDEX.be project. Simulations were performed at a horizontal resolution of 5 km over a domain of 600 x 550 km² covering Belgium. Boundary conditions were provided by four reanalysis products: ERA-interim (1979-2014) completed by the ERA40 (1958-1978), NCEP/NCAR-v1 (1948-2014), ERA-20C (1900-2010) and 20CRV2C (1900-2010). Surface solar radiation measurements from the Global Energy Balance Archive and cloud cover observations from Belgocontrol covering 1966-2007 were used for the evaluation of the MAR model and the forcing reanalyses. Results show that MAR produces much better results than the reanalyses. The driving reanalyses can generate divergent trends while they assimilate observations and are supposed to represent the same climate. [less ▲]

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See detailApplication of a two-step approach for mapping ice thickness to various glacier types on Svalbard
Fürst, J.; Gillet-Chaulet, F.; Benham, T. et al

in Cryosphere (The) (2017)

The basal topography is largely unknown beneath most glaciers and ice caps, and many attempts have been made to estimate a thickness field from other more accessible information at the surface. Here, we ... [more ▼]

The basal topography is largely unknown beneath most glaciers and ice caps, and many attempts have been made to estimate a thickness field from other more accessible information at the surface. Here, we present a two-step reconstruction approach for ice thickness that solves mass conservation over single or several connected drainage basins. The approach is applied to a variety of test geometries with abundant thickness measurements including marine- and land-terminating glaciers as well as a 2400 km2 ice cap on Svalbard. The input requirements are kept to a minimum for the first step. In this step, a geometrically controlled, non-local flux solution is converted into thickness values relying on the shallow ice approximation (SIA). In a second step, the thickness field is updated along fast-flowing glacier trunks on the basis of velocity observations. Both steps account for available thickness measurements. Each thickness field is presented together with an error-estimate map based on a formal propagation of input uncertainties. These error estimates point out that the thickness field is least constrained near ice divides or in other stagnant areas. Withholding a share of the thickness measurements, error estimates tend to overestimate mismatch values in a median sense. We also have to accept an aggregate uncertainty of at least 25 % in the reconstructed thickness field for glaciers with very sparse or no observations. For Vestfonna ice cap (VIC), a previous ice volume estimate based on the same measurement record as used here has to be corrected upward by 22 %. We also find that a 13 % area fraction of the ice cap is in fact grounded below sea level. The former 5 % estimate from a direct measurement interpolation exceeds an aggregate maximum range of 6–23 % as inferred from the error estimates here. [less ▲]

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See detailNoël 2010 en Belgique : neige en Flandre et pluie en Haute-Ardenne
Fettweis, Xavier ULiege; Wyard, Coraline ULiege; Doutreloup, Sébastien ULiege et al

in Bulletin de la Société Géographique de Liège (2017), 68

On December 2010, several snow events allowed an exceptional snow cover over Belgium. 27 days with snow cover were observed at Uccle and snow depths of 20, 30 and 70 cm were measured on Christmas 2010 ... [more ▼]

On December 2010, several snow events allowed an exceptional snow cover over Belgium. 27 days with snow cover were observed at Uccle and snow depths of 20, 30 and 70 cm were measured on Christmas 2010 respectively at Uccle, Bierset and Mont Rigi in the Hautes-Fagnes. On December 20, while the entire Belgium was covered by a thick blanket of snow, warmer air invaded the country on December 21. This air was quickly replaced by polar air in Lower and Central Belgium (including Bierset). Heavy snowfalls were observed on December 22 and 23, except in the Upper Ardennes where rainfalls occurred under positive temperature which then dropped to -5°C. This event was due to a strong thermal inversion in the lower layers with warm air at 850 hPa above the Ardennes only. This paper aims to explain this atypical extreme event using the regional climate model MAR developed at the University of Liège [less ▲]

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See detailEvaluating Model Simulations of Twentieth-Century Sea Level Rise. Part 2: Regional Sea-Level Changes
Meyssignac, B.; Slangen, A.; Melet, A. et al

in Journal of Climate (2017), in press

Twentieth century regional sea-level changes are estimated from 12 climate models from the 5th phase of the Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). The output of the CMIP5 climate model simulations ... [more ▼]

Twentieth century regional sea-level changes are estimated from 12 climate models from the 5th phase of the Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). The output of the CMIP5 climate model simulations were used to calculate the global and regional sea-level changes associated with dynamic sea level, atmospheric loading, glacier mass changes and ice sheet surface mass balance contributions. The contribution from groundwater depletion, reservoir storage and dynamic ice sheet mass changes are estimated from observations as they are not simulated by climate models. All contributions are summed, including the GIA contribution, and compared to observational estimates from 27 tide gauge records over the twentieth century (1900-2015). We find a general agreement between the simulated sea level and tide gauge records in terms of inter-annual to multi-decadal variability over 1900-2015. But climate models tend to systematically underestimate the observed sea-level trends, particularly in the first half of the 20th century. The corrections based on attributable biases between observations and models that have been identified in the part-1-paper, result in an improved explanation of the spatial variability in observed sea-level trends by climate models. Climate models show that the spatial variability in sea-level trends observed by tide-gauge records is dominated by the GIA contribution and the steric contribution over 1900-2015. Climate models also show that it is important to include all contributions to sea-level changes as they cause significant local deviations; for example, the groundwater depletion around India which is responsible for the low 20th century sea-level rise in the region. [less ▲]

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See detailEvaluating model simulations of 20th century sea-level rise. Part 1: Global mean sea-level change
Slangen, A.; Meyssignac, B.; Agosta, Cécile ULiege et al

in Journal of Climate (2017)

Sea-level change is one of the major consequences of climate change and is projected to affect coastal communities around the world. Here, we compare Global Mean Sea-Level (GMSL) change estimated by 12 ... [more ▼]

Sea-level change is one of the major consequences of climate change and is projected to affect coastal communities around the world. Here, we compare Global Mean Sea-Level (GMSL) change estimated by 12 climate models from the 5th phase of the World Climate Research Programme’s Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) to observational estimates for the period 1900-2015. We analyse observed and simulated individual contributions to GMSL change (thermal expansion, glacier mass change, ice sheet mass change, landwater storage change) and compare the summed simulated contributions to observed GMSL change over the period 1900-2007 using tide gauge reconstructions, and over the period 1993-2015 using satellite altimetry estimates. The model-simulated contributions allow us to explain 50 ± 30% (uncertainties 1.65σ unless indicated otherwise) of the mean observed change from 1901-1920 to 1988-2007. Based on attributable biases between observations and models, we propose to add a number of corrections, which result in an improved explanation of 75 ± 38% of the observed change. For the satellite era (1993-1997 to 2011-2015) we find an improved budget closure of 102 ± 33% (105 ± 35% when including the proposed bias corrections). Simulated decadal trends over the 20th century increase, both in the thermal expansion and the combined mass contributions (glaciers, ice sheets and landwater storage). The mass components explain the majority of sea-level rise over the 20th century, but the thermal expansion has increasingly contributed to sea-level rise, starting from 1910 onwards and in 2015 accounting for 46% of the total simulated sea-level change. [less ▲]

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See detailÉvaluation de la capacité du Modèle Atmosphérique Régional (MAR) à simuler la saison des pluies en Afrique Intertropicale
Doutreloup, Sébastien ULiege; Wyard, Coraline ULiege; Belleflamme, Alexandre ULiege et al

in Dahech, Salem; Charfi, Sami (Eds.) Actes du XXXe colloque de l'Association Internationale de Climatologie : CLIMAT, VILLE ET ENVIRONNEMENT (2017, July)

In Intertropical Africa, climate is essentially characterized by the amount of precipitation and its annual regime. These precipitations and their evolution during the period 1970-1999 are simulated ... [more ▼]

In Intertropical Africa, climate is essentially characterized by the amount of precipitation and its annual regime. These precipitations and their evolution during the period 1970-1999 are simulated thanks to the Regional Atmospheric Model (MAR), developed at the ULg, and forced by the NCEP1 reanalyses and by the outputs of three global models (GCM) of the CMIP5 database. These MAR simulations are compared to the gridded data of the Climate Research Unit (CRU). It is clear from our investigations that the simulation of the MAR model forced by the NCEP1 reanalyses is better reproducing the quantities as well as the annual rainfall regime in the semi-arid regions than in equatorial regions. On the other hand, simulations of the MAR forced by the outputs of the GCMs are globally unsatisfactory throughout the intertropical domain in terms of quantities as well as the seasonality of precipitation. [less ▲]

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See detailÉvolution de l'enneigement moyen dans les Alpes au cours du 20e siècle à l'aide du modèle atmosphérique régional MAR
Belleflamme, Alexandre ULiege; Wyard, Coraline ULiege; Doutreloup, Sébastien ULiege et al

in Dahech, Salem; Charfi, Sami (Eds.) Actes du XXXème colloque de l'Association Internationale de Climatologie - Climat, ville et environnement (2017, July)

The evolution of the snow height over the Alps can strongly impact tourism, but also the water availability of the region. In this study, we have reproduced the evolution of the climate in the Alps over ... [more ▼]

The evolution of the snow height over the Alps can strongly impact tourism, but also the water availability of the region. In this study, we have reproduced the evolution of the climate in the Alps over the 20th century with the help of the regional atmospheric model MAR forced by three reanalyses (ERA-20C, NCEP/NCAR, and ERA-Interim). MAR shows that the snow height has increased since the beginning of the 20th century, first only at higher altitudes, then also at lower levels, before knowing a strong and abrupt decrease between 1985 and 1990. This evolution, which is consistent with observations given in the literature, is directly linked with the trends of NAO and AO. In fact, the atmospheric circulation changes highlighted by NAO and AO induce temperature and precipitation changes that directly determine the snow height in the Alps. [less ▲]

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See detailRECONSTRUCTION DE L'ÉVOLUTION DU RAYONNEMENT SOLAIRE REÇU EN SURFACE EN EUROPE OCCIDENTALE SUR LA PÉRIODE 1900-2014 À L'AIDE DU MODÈLE ATMOSPHÉRIQUE RÉGIONAL MAR
Wyard, Coraline ULiege; Fettweis, Xavier ULiege; Belleflamme, Alexandre ULiege et al

in Dahech, Salem; Charfi, Sami (Eds.) Actes du XXXe colloque de l'Association Internationale de Climatologie : Climat, ville et environnement (2017, July)

Many studies show that the surface solar radiation has underwent large variations over the second half of the 20th century as a result of variations in cloud cover and aerosol loading in the atmosphere ... [more ▼]

Many studies show that the surface solar radiation has underwent large variations over the second half of the 20th century as a result of variations in cloud cover and aerosol loading in the atmosphere. However, it is difficult to build strong conclusions before the 1950' because of the observations scarcity. The evolution of the surface solar radiation has been reconstructed over 1900-2014 using the regional model MAR (« Modèle Atmosphérique Régional ») in Belgium. Boundary conditions were provided by four reanalysis products : the ERA-interim (1979-2014) completed by the ERA40 (1958-1978), the NCEP/NCAR-v1 (1948-2014), the ERA-20C (1900-2010) and the 20CRV2C (1900-2010). Results show that the reanalyses can generate divergent trends while they assimilate observations and are supposed to represent the same climate. [less ▲]

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See detailDecreasing cloud cover drives the recent mass loss on the Greenland Ice Sheet
Hofer, S.; Tedstone, A.; Fettweis, Xavier ULiege et al

in Science (2017), 3(6),

The Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) has been losing mass at an accelerating rate since the mid-1990s. This has been due to both increased ice discharge into the ocean and melting at the surface, with the ... [more ▼]

The Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) has been losing mass at an accelerating rate since the mid-1990s. This has been due to both increased ice discharge into the ocean and melting at the surface, with the latter being the dominant contribution. This change in state has been attributed to rising temperatures and a decrease in surface albedo. We show, using satellite data and climate model output, that the abrupt reduction in surface mass balance since about 1995 can be attributed largely to a coincident trend of decreasing summer cloud cover enhancing the melt-albedo feedback. Satellite observations show that, from 1995 to 2009, summer cloud cover decreased by 0.9 ± 0.3% per year. Model output indicates that the GrIS summer melt increases by 27 ± 13 gigatons (Gt) per percent reduction in summer cloud cover, principally because of the impact of increased shortwave radiation over the low albedo ablation zone. The observed reduction in cloud cover is strongly correlated with a state shift in the North Atlantic Oscillation promoting anticyclonic conditions in summer and suggests that the enhanced surface mass loss from the GrIS is driven by synoptic-scale changes in Arctic-wide atmospheric circulation. [less ▲]

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See detailReconstructions of the 1900–2015 Greenland ice sheet surface mass balance using the regional climate MAR model
Fettweis, Xavier ULiege; Box, Jason; Agosta, Cécile ULiege et al

in Cryosphere (The) (2017), 11

With the aim of studying the recent Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) surface mass balance (SMB) decrease relative to the last century, we have forced the regional climate MAR (Modèle Atmosphérique Régional ... [more ▼]

With the aim of studying the recent Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) surface mass balance (SMB) decrease relative to the last century, we have forced the regional climate MAR (Modèle Atmosphérique Régional; version 3.5.2) model with the ERA-Interim (ECMWF Interim Re-Analysis; 1979–2015), ERA-40 (1958–2001), NCEP–NCARv1 (National Centers for Environmental Prediction–National Center for Atmospheric Research Reanalysis version 1; 1948–2015), NCEP–NCARv2 (1979–2015), JRA-55 (Japanese 55-year Reanalysis; 1958–2014), 20CRv2(c) (Twentieth Century Reanalysis version 2; 1900–2014) and ERA-20C (1900–2010) reanalyses. While all these forcing products are reanalyses that are assumed to represent the same climate, they produce significant differences in the MAR-simulated SMB over their common period. A temperature adjustment of +1 °C (respectively −1 °C) was, for example, needed at the MAR boundaries with ERA-20C (20CRv2) reanalysis, given that ERA-20C (20CRv2) is ∼ 1 °C colder (warmer) than ERA-Interim over Greenland during the period 1980–2010. Comparisons with daily PROMICE (Programme for Monitoring of the Greenland Ice Sheet) near-surface observations support these adjustments. Comparisons with SMB measurements, ice cores and satellite-derived melt extent reveal the most accurate forcing datasets for the simulation of the GrIS SMB to be ERA-Interim and NCEP–NCARv1. However, some biases remain in MAR, suggesting that some improvements are still needed in its cloudiness and radiative schemes as well as in the representation of the bare ice albedo. Results from all MAR simulations indicate that (i) the period 1961–1990, commonly chosen as a stable reference period for Greenland SMB and ice dynamics, is actually a period of anomalously positive SMB (∼ +40 Gt yr−1) compared to 1900–2010; (ii) SMB has decreased significantly after this reference period due to increasing and unprecedented melt reaching the highest rates in the 120-year common period; (iii) before 1960, both ERA-20C and 20CRv2-forced MAR simulations suggest a significant precipitation increase over 1900–1950, but this increase could be the result of an artefact in the reanalyses that are not well-enough constrained by observations during this period and (iv) since the 1980s, snowfall is quite stable after having reached a maximum in the 1970s. These MAR-based SMB and accumulation reconstructions are, however, quite similar to those from Box (2013) after 1930 and confirm that SMB was quite stable from the 1940s to the 1990s. Finally, only the ERA-20C-forced simulation suggests that SMB during the 1920–1930 warm period over Greenland was comparable to the SMB of the 2000s, due to both higher melt and lower precipitation than normal. [less ▲]

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See detailThe recent warming trend in North Greenland
Orsi, A.; Kawamura, K.; Masson-Delmotte, V. et al

in Geophysical Research Letters (2017)

The Arctic is among the fastest warming regions on Earth, but it is also one with limited spatial coverage of multi-decadal instrumental surface air temperature measurements. Consequently, atmospheric ... [more ▼]

The Arctic is among the fastest warming regions on Earth, but it is also one with limited spatial coverage of multi-decadal instrumental surface air temperature measurements. Consequently, atmospheric reanalyses are relatively unconstrained in this region, resulting in a large spread of estimated 30-year recent warming trends, which limits their use to investigate the mechanisms responsible for this trend. Here, we present a surface temperature reconstruction over 1982-2011 at NEEM (51∘ W, 77∘ N), in North Greenland, based on the inversion of borehole temperature and inert gas isotope data. We find that NEEM has warmed by 2.7±0.33∘C over the past 30 years, from the long-term 1900-1970 average of -28.55±0.29∘C. The warming trend is principally caused by an increase in downward longwave heat flux. Atmospheric reanalyses underestimate this trend by 17%, underlining the need for more in situ observations to validate reanalyses. [less ▲]

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See detailDecrease in climatic conditions favouring floods in the south-east of Belgium over 1959-2010 using the regional climate model MAR
Wyard, Coraline ULiege; Scholzen, Chloé ULiege; Fettweis, Xavier ULiege et al

in International Journal of Climatology (2017), 37(5), 27822796

The Ourthe River, in the south-east of Belgium, has a catchment area of 3,500 km2 and is one of the main tributaries of the Meuse River. In the Ourthe, most of the flood events occur during winter and ... [more ▼]

The Ourthe River, in the south-east of Belgium, has a catchment area of 3,500 km2 and is one of the main tributaries of the Meuse River. In the Ourthe, most of the flood events occur during winter and about 50% of them are due to heavy rainfall events combined to an abrupt melting of the snowpack covering the Ardennes massif during winter. This study aims to determine whether trends in extreme hydroclimatic events generating floods can be detected over the last century in Belgium, where a global warming signal can be observed. Hydroclimatic conditions favourable to floods were reconstructed over 1959- 2010 using the regional climate model MAR (“Modèle Atmosphérique Régional”) forced by the ERA-Interim/ERA-40, the ERA-20C and the NCEP/NCAR-v1 reanalyses. Extreme run-off events, which could potentially generate floods, were detected using run-off caused by precipitation events and snowpack melting from the MAR model. In the validation process, the MAR-driven temperature, precipitation and snow depth were successfully compared to daily weather data over the period 2008-2014 for 20 stations in Belgium. MAR also showed its ability to detect up to 90% of the hydroclimatic conditions which effectively generated observed floods in the Ourthe River over the period 1974- 2010. Conditions favourable to floods in the Ourthe River catchment present a negative trend over the period 1959-2010 as a result of a decrease in snow accumulation and a shortening of the snow season. This trend is expected to accelerate in a warmer climate. However, regarding the impact of the extreme precipitation events evolution on conditions favouring floods, the signal is less clear since the trends depend on the reanalysis used to force the MAR model. [less ▲]

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See detailChangement climatique : conséquences en Ardenne
Wyard, Coraline ULiege; Fettweis, Xavier ULiege

Article for general public (2017)

Le GIEC (Groupe d'experts Intergouvernemental sur l'évolution du climat) prévoit pour le futur plus de précipitations hivernales et donc à priori un risque accru d'inondations en Belgique. En Ardenne, la ... [more ▼]

Le GIEC (Groupe d'experts Intergouvernemental sur l'évolution du climat) prévoit pour le futur plus de précipitations hivernales et donc à priori un risque accru d'inondations en Belgique. En Ardenne, la majorité des débordements de rivières, telles que l'Ourthe, l'Amblève ou encore la Vesdre, survient en hiver et près de la moitié d'entre eux est due à la combinaison de fortes pluies à une fonte rapide du manteau neigeux. Une reconstitution de l'évolution des précipitations et de l'enneigement en Belgique à l'aide d'un modèle du climat, développé au Laboratoire de Climatologie de l'Université de Liège, montre cependant que les conditions climatiques favorisant les inondations hivernales ont diminué en Ardenne au cours de ces cinquante dernières années. [less ▲]

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See detailMontée des eaux : Un nouveau modèle de simulation climatique
Wyard, Coraline ULiege; Fettweis, Xavier ULiege

Article for general public (2017)

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See detailHigh resolution (1 km) positive degree-day modelling of Greenland ice sheet surface mass balance, 1870–2012 using reanalysis data
Wilton, D.; Jowett, A.; Hanna, E. et al

in Journal of Glaciology (2017), 63

We show results from a positive degree-day (PDD) model of Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) surface mass balance (SMB), 1870–2012, forced with reanalysis data. The model includes an improved daily temperature ... [more ▼]

We show results from a positive degree-day (PDD) model of Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) surface mass balance (SMB), 1870–2012, forced with reanalysis data. The model includes an improved daily temperature parameterization as compared with a previous version and is run at 1 km rather than 5 km resolution. The improvements lead overall to higher SMB with the same forcing data. We also compare our model with results from two regional climate models (RCMs). While there is good qualitative agreement between our PDD model and the RCMs, it usually results in lower precipitation and lower runoff but approximately equivalent SMB: mean 1979–2012 SMB (± standard deviation), in Gt a−1, is 382 ± 78 in the PDD model, compared with 379 ± 101 and 425 ± 90 for the RCMs. Comparison with in situ SMB observations suggests that the RCMs may be more accurate than PDD at local level, in some areas, although the latter generally compares well. Dividing the GrIS into seven drainage basins we show that SMB has decreased sharply in all regions since 2000. Finally we show correlation between runoff close to two calving glaciers and either calving front retreat or calving flux, this being most noticeable from the mid-1990s. [less ▲]

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See detailRegional sea level changes for the 20th and the 21st century induced by the regional variability in Greenland ice sheet surface mass loss
Meyssignac, B.; Fettweis, Xavier ULiege; Chevrier, R. et al

in Journal of Climate (2017), online

Surface mass balance (SMB) variations of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) has been identified as an important contributor to contemporary and projected global mean sea level variations but their impact on ... [more ▼]

Surface mass balance (SMB) variations of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) has been identified as an important contributor to contemporary and projected global mean sea level variations but their impact on the regional sea level change pattern is still poorly known. This study provides for the first time, consistent estimates (i.e. computed with the same models over the past -1900-2015- and over the future -2015-2100-) of GrIS SMB over 1900-2100 based on the output of 32 atmospheric-ocean General Circulation Models and Earth system models involved in the Climate Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). It is based on a downscaling technique calibrated against the MAR regional climate model in order to calculate an ensemble of 32 Greenland SMB estimates at regional scale. Because the GrIS SMB does not respond uniformly to greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions. the southern part of the GrIS is more sensitive to climate warming. This study shows that it should be in imbalance in the 21st century sooner that the northern part. This regional variability affects significantly the associated relative sea level pattern over the entire ocean and particularly along the eastern coast of US and the northern coast of Europe. This highlights the necessity of taking into account GrIS regional SMB changes to evaluate accurately relative sea level changes in future projections. [less ▲]

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See detailA daily, 1 km resolution data set of downscaled Greenland ice sheet surface mass balance (1958–2015)
Noel, B.; van de Berg, W. J.; Machguth, H. et al

in Cryosphere (The) (2016), 10

This study presents a data set of daily, 1 km resolution Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) surface mass balance (SMB) covering the period 1958–2015. Applying corrections for elevation, bare ice albedo and ... [more ▼]

This study presents a data set of daily, 1 km resolution Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) surface mass balance (SMB) covering the period 1958–2015. Applying corrections for elevation, bare ice albedo and accumulation bias, the high-resolution product is statistically downscaled from the native daily output of the polar regional climate model RACMO2.3 at 11 km. The data set includes all individual SMB components projected to a down-sampled version of the Greenland Ice Mapping Project (GIMP) digital elevation model and ice mask. The 1 km mask better resolves narrow ablation zones, valley glaciers, fjords and disconnected ice caps. Relative to the 11 km product, the more detailed representation of isolated glaciated areas leads to increased precipitation over the southeastern GrIS. In addition, the downscaled product shows a significant increase in runoff owing to better resolved low-lying marginal glaciated regions. The combined corrections for elevation and bare ice albedo markedly improve model agreement with a newly compiled data set of ablation measurements. [less ▲]

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See detailApplication of GRACE to the assessment of model-based estimates of monthly Greenland Ice Sheet mass balance (2003–2012)
Schlegel, N.; Wiese, D.; Larour, E. et al

in Cryosphere (The) (2016), 10

Quantifying the Greenland Ice Sheet's future contribution to sea level rise is a challenging task that requires accurate estimates of ice sheet sensitivity to climate change. Forward ice sheet models are ... [more ▼]

Quantifying the Greenland Ice Sheet's future contribution to sea level rise is a challenging task that requires accurate estimates of ice sheet sensitivity to climate change. Forward ice sheet models are promising tools for estimating future ice sheet behavior, yet confidence is low because evaluation of historical simulations is challenging due to the scarcity of continental-wide data for model evaluation. Recent advancements in processing of Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) data using Bayesian-constrained mass concentration ("mascon") functions have led to improvements in spatial resolution and noise reduction of monthly global gravity fields. Specifically, the Jet Propulsion Laboratory's JPL RL05M GRACE mascon solution (GRACE_JPL) offers an opportunity for the assessment of model-based estimates of ice sheet mass balance (MB) at ∼ 300 km spatial scales. Here, we quantify the differences between Greenland monthly observed MB (GRACE_JPL) and that estimated by state-of-the-art, high-resolution models, with respect to GRACE_JPL and model uncertainties. To simulate the years 2003–2012, we force the Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM) with anomalies from three different surface mass balance (SMB) products derived from regional climate models. Resulting MB is compared against GRACE_JPL within individual mascons. Overall, we find agreement in the northeast and southwest where MB is assumed to be primarily controlled by SMB. In the interior, we find a discrepancy in trend, which we presume to be related to millennial-scale dynamic thickening not considered by our model. In the northwest, seasonal amplitudes agree, but modeled mass trends are muted relative to GRACE_JPL. Here, discrepancies are likely controlled by temporal variability in ice discharge and other related processes not represented by our model simulations, i.e., hydrological processes and ice–ocean interaction. In the southeast, GRACE_JPL exhibits larger seasonal amplitude than predicted by the models while simultaneously having more pronounced trends; thus, discrepancies are likely controlled by a combination of missing processes and errors in both the SMB products and ISSM. At the margins, we find evidence of consistent intra-annual variations in regional MB that deviate distinctively from the SMB annual cycle. Ultimately, these monthly-scale variations, likely associated with hydrology or ice–ocean interaction, contribute to steeper negative mass trends observed by GRACE_JPL. Thus, models should consider such processes at relatively high (monthly-to-seasonal) temporal resolutions to achieve accurate estimates of Greenland MB. [less ▲]

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See detailHow reliable are the models to study recent climate change ? A study of heat/cold waves and radiative fluxes trends over 1900-2010 using the model MAR in Belgium
Wyard, Coraline ULiege; Fettweis, Xavier ULiege; Scholzen, Chloé ULiege

Poster (2016, August 29)

This research aims to assess the ability of the regional climate model MAR ("Modèle Atmosphérique Régional") to reconstruct the observed twentieth century climatology of extreme events and solar radiation ... [more ▼]

This research aims to assess the ability of the regional climate model MAR ("Modèle Atmosphérique Régional") to reconstruct the observed twentieth century climatology of extreme events and solar radiation in Belgium, as a necessary condition for reliable future projections. Simulations were performed by forcing MAR with several reanalyses: the ERA40/ERA-Interim, the ERA-20C and the NCEP/NCAR-v1. The results suggests that increasing air temperature would have generated decreasing relative humidity which would have lead to a decrease in cloudiness and an increase in solar downward radiation. This research illustrates the dependency between RCMs and their forcings. The forcing reanalyses can generate divergent trends while contrary to Global Climate Models (GCM), the reanalyses assimilate observations and are supposed to represent the same climate. [less ▲]

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See detailAnnual Greenland accumulation rates (2009–2012) from airborne snow radar
Koenig, L.; Ivanoff, A.; Alexander, P. et al

in Cryosphere (The) (2016), 10

Contemporary climate warming over the Arctic is accelerating mass loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet through increasing surface melt, emphasizing the need to closely monitor its surface mass balance in ... [more ▼]

Contemporary climate warming over the Arctic is accelerating mass loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet through increasing surface melt, emphasizing the need to closely monitor its surface mass balance in order to improve sea-level rise predictions. Snow accumulation is the largest component of the ice sheet's surface mass balance, but in situ observations thereof are inherently sparse and models are difficult to evaluate at large scales. Here, we quantify recent Greenland accumulation rates using ultra-wideband (2–6.5 GHz) airborne snow radar data collected as part of NASA's Operation IceBridge between 2009 and 2012. We use a semiautomated method to trace the observed radiostratigraphy and then derive annual net accumulation rates for 2009–2012. The uncertainty in these radar-derived accumulation rates is on average 14 %. A comparison of the radar-derived accumulation rates and contemporaneous ice cores shows that snow radar captures both the annual and long-term mean accumulation rate accurately. A comparison with outputs from a regional climate model (MAR) shows that this model matches radar-derived accumulation rates in the ice sheet interior but produces higher values over southeastern Greenland. Our results demonstrate that snow radar can efficiently and accurately map patterns of snow accumulation across an ice sheet and that it is valuable for evaluating the accuracy of surface mass balance models. [less ▲]

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