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See detailRelative impacts of climate and landuse changes on future flood damage along River Meuse in Wallonia
Beckers, Arnaud ULg; Detrembleur, Sylvain ULg; Dewals, Benjamin ULg et al

Poster (2012, April 27)

Climate change is expected to increase flood hazard across most of Europe, both in terms of peak discharge intensity and frequency. Consequently, managing flood risk will remain an issue of primary ... [more ▼]

Climate change is expected to increase flood hazard across most of Europe, both in terms of peak discharge intensity and frequency. Consequently, managing flood risk will remain an issue of primary importance for decades to come. Flood risk depends on territories’ flood hazard and vulnerability. Beside climate change, land use evolution is thus a key influencing factor on flood risk. The aim of this research is to quantify the relative influence of climate and land use changes on flood damage evolution during the 21st century. The study focuses on River Meuse in Wallonia for a 100-year flood. A scenario-based approach was used to model land use evolution. Nine urbanization scenarios for 2100 were developed: three of them assume a “current tend” land use evolution, characterized by urban sprawl, while six others assume a sustainable spatial planning, leading to an increase in density of residential areas as well as an increase in urban functions diversity. A study commissioned by the EU has estimated a 30 % increase in the 100-year discharge for River Meuse by the year 2100. Inundation modeling was conducted for the present day 100-year flood (HQ100) and for a discharge HQ100 + 30%, using the model Wolf 2D and a 5m grid resolution Digital Elevation Model (Ernst et al. 2009). Based on five different damage curves related to land use categories, the relative damage was deduced from the computed inundation maps. Finally, specific prices were associated to each land use category and allowed assessing absolute damages, which were subsequently aggregated to obtain a damage value for each of the 19 municipalities crossed by River Meuse. Results show that flood damage is estimated to increase by 540 to 630 % between 2009 and 2100, reaching 2.1 to 2.4 billion Euros in 2100. These increases mainly involve municipalities downstream of a point where the floodplain width becomes significantly larger. The city of Liège, which is protected against a 100-year flood in the present situation, would undergo about 450 million Euros damage for a 100-year flood in the 2100, i.e. in-between 21% and 25 % of the whole damage increase. The influence of climate is three to eight times higher than the effect of land use change according to the land use evolution scenarios considered. Nevertheless, these two factors have a comparable influence on seven municipalities. Consequently, although a careful spatial planning would not considerably reduce the overall flood damage at the level of theWalloon part of the Meuse Valley, more sustainable spatial planning could efficiently reduce future flood damage at the level of several most critical municipalities. Reference Ernst, J, Dewals, B, Detrembleur, S, Archambeau, P, Erpicum, S, & Pirotton, M. (2010). Micro-scale flood risk analysis based on detailed 2D hydraulic modelling and high resolution geographic data. Natural Hazards, 55(2), 181-209. [less ▲]

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See detailSpatial Planning as a Driver for Change in Both Mobility and Residential Energy Consumptions
Dujardin, Sébastien ULg; Marique, Anne-Françoise ULg; Teller, Jacques ULg

in Proceedings of the International Conference CISBAT 2011 - Clean Tech for sustainable buildings - From Nano to urban scale (2011) (2011, September)

This paper presents the results of the first part of an important two-year research dedicated to analysing the impact of territorial structures upon GHG emissions in the Walloon Region (Belgium). The ... [more ▼]

This paper presents the results of the first part of an important two-year research dedicated to analysing the impact of territorial structures upon GHG emissions in the Walloon Region (Belgium). The rationale of the research is to provide regional authorities with up-to-date figures about the long-term influence of land planning decisions upon energy consumptions and GHG emissions, both in the residential building stock as well as for home-to-work commuting. The analysis has been conducted at the regional scale (16.844 km2) and includes both urban, periurban and rural settlements. It appears that those sectors that perform well on mobility also tend to perform well in terms of building consumption. This opens an avenue towards a much more progressive approach in terms of spatial planning, where compact cities may be viewed as part of the solution, still not the whole solution. This is especially true when one considers the entire territorial structure of a region and its strong inertia over time. [less ▲]

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See detailMorphologie urbaine et consommation énergétique du bâti résidentiel pour répondre aux objectifs de réduction des émissions de gaz à effet de serre
Labeeuw, France-Laure; Dujardin, Sébastien ULg; Lambotte, Jean-Marc ULg et al

(2011, August 28)

Cet article présente une recherche relative à l’impact de la structuration du territoire sur les émissions de gaz à effet de serre (GES). Particulièrement, il se focalise sur le lien entre morphologie ... [more ▼]

Cet article présente une recherche relative à l’impact de la structuration du territoire sur les émissions de gaz à effet de serre (GES). Particulièrement, il se focalise sur le lien entre morphologie urbaine et consommation énergétique du bâti résidentiel. Nous abordons successivement les données et hypothèses concernant la dynamique du parc bâti et sa caractérisation physique. La discussion se centre ensuite sur deux aspects : le croisement entre variables morphologiques et consommation énergétique, ainsi que les poids spécifiques des facteurs morphologiques et techniques influençant les consommations énergétiques. Nous défendons ici une approche pragmatique, basée sur une connaissance fine des types d’urbanisation observables sur le territoire. Notre analyse se base sur une modélisation de l’enveloppe de l’ensemble du parc bâti résidentiel wallon, soit 1.300.000 bâtiments, croisant données cadastrales (âge et fonction), photogrammétriques (emprise, hauteurs et mitoyenneté) et statistiques (variables techniques). Une telle approche semi-empirique nous démarque clairement d’un discours de transformation radicale basé sur des modèles théoriques, que nous jugeons mal adaptés à la réalité de nos territoires pour l’élaboration contextualisée de processus d’action aptes à répondre aux défis climatiques. La structure territoriale de la Wallonie est caractérisée par une dispersion importante de l'habitat en dehors des pôles d’activités économiques et de services qui, combinée à une forte périurbanisation, développe des tissus peu compacts. La région hérite, de plus, de deux caractéristiques peu compatibles avec les objectifs de réduction d’émissions de GES: d’une part, un parc de bâtiments ancien qui techniquement évolue peu malgré l’engagement de diverses politiques régionales de rénovation et, d’autre part, un faible taux de substitution. Une piste semble néanmoins se dessiner en première analyse: celle de la remobilisation des surfaces bâties existantes actuellement vacantes d’occupation. [less ▲]

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See detailUrban Sprawl and Travel Energy Consumption: the Case of the Walloon Region of Belgium
Marique, Anne-Françoise ULg; Dujardin, Sébastien ULg; Teller, Jacques ULg et al

in Irish Transport Research Network Conference, Energy & Transport, Programme and Proceedings (2011, August)

In the actual context of growing interests in environmental issues, reducing energy consumption in the transport sector, which represents 27% of final energy in the Walloon region of Belgium, appears as ... [more ▼]

In the actual context of growing interests in environmental issues, reducing energy consumption in the transport sector, which represents 27% of final energy in the Walloon region of Belgium, appears as an important policy target. Although it is often argued that more compact urban forms would significantly reduce transport energy consumption, urban sprawl is a concern in a large part of the regional territory. Moreover, assessment tools dedicated to transport energy consumption are lacking. In this context, the paper first presents a quantitative method developed to assess the transport system in the Walloon region of Belgium. Statistical data available at the neighbourhood scale and characteristics of cars and public vehicles are used to predict transport needs and assess energy consumption as far as home-to-work and home-to-school travels are concerned. Three index are presented and mapped (the energy performance index, the modal share and the mean distance travelled) to investigate the interdependences between spatial planning, urban sprawl and travel energy consumption in the Walloon region of Belgium. Three complementary scales are used: the “municipality” scale allows to highlight the general structure of the territory whereas the “former municipality” and the “census block” scales (the smallest geographical unit in which data are available in Belgium) highlight more detailed phenomenon. The evolution of the performance index between 1991 and 2001 and the difference in energy performance between home-to-work and home-to-school travels are also presented. Our main findings are presented and highlight that urban planning acts upon travel energy consumption. We show particularly that main cities present low energy consumption. However, a local scale approach is useful to highlight the existence of secondary suburban and rural cores presenting low transport energy consumption. In this respect, distance from home to destination is paramount while the mode of transport used has a lower impact. [less ▲]

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See detailHome-to-work commuting, spatial structure and energy consumption: A comparative analysis of Wallonia and Flanders, Belgium
Dujardin, Sébastien ULg; Boussauw, Kobe; Brévers, Florence ULg et al

in Cornelis, Eric (Ed.) Proceedings of the BIVEC-GIBET Transport Research Day 2011 (2011)

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See detailStructuration du territoire pour répondre aux objectifs de réduction des émissions des gaz à effets de serre
Dujardin, Sébastien ULg; Labeeuw, France ULg; Melin, Eric ULg et al

in Teller, Jacques (Ed.) La dimension territoriale des politiques énergétiques et de réduction des GES (2010, November)

Nous présentons ici une recherche relative à l’impact de la structuration du territoire sur les émissions de gaz à effets de serre (GES). Trois champs de variables ont été prospectés à cette fin : les ... [more ▼]

Nous présentons ici une recherche relative à l’impact de la structuration du territoire sur les émissions de gaz à effets de serre (GES). Trois champs de variables ont été prospectés à cette fin : les variables territoriales bien sûr, mais également socio-économiques et technologiques, Celles-ci ont permis l’élaboration d’un cadastre énergétique des émissions dans deux domaines principaux de l’aménagement du territoire: la mobilité et le bâti. Il ressort de ces analyses que des gains d’émissions de GES appréciables sont envisageables à court à et à long terme, notamment dans le domaine du bâti. Cependant, ils ne peuvent être interprétés sans une réflexion de nature territoriale. La Wallonie est de fait caractérisée par une forte périurbanisation combinée à un très faible recyclage du parc bâti. Ces caractéristiques structurelles du territoire imposent aujourd’hui de formuler des réponses adaptées à différents types d’urbanisation (urbain, rural, périurbain). [less ▲]

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