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See detailCalibration of MATSim in the context of natural hazards in Liège (Belgium): Preliminary results
Saadi, Ismaïl ULg; El Saeid Mustafa, Ahmed Mohamed ULg; Teller, Jacques ULg et al

in Proceedings of the Conference on Transport Engineering (2016)

In Belgium, river floods are among the most frequent natural disasters and they may cause important changes on travel demand. In this regard, we propose to set up a large scale scenario using MATSim for ... [more ▼]

In Belgium, river floods are among the most frequent natural disasters and they may cause important changes on travel demand. In this regard, we propose to set up a large scale scenario using MATSim for guarantying an accurate assessment of the river floods impact on the transportation systems. In terms of inputs, agent-based models require a base year population. In this context, a synthetic population with a respective set of attributes is generated as a key input. Afterwards, agents are assigned activity chains through an activity-based generation process. Finally, the synthetic population and the transportation network are integrated into the dynamic traffic assignment simulator, i.e. MATSim. With respect to data, households travel surveys are the main inputs for synthesizing the populations. Besides, a steady-state inundation map is integrated within MATSim for simulating river floods. To our knowledge, very few studies have focused on how river floods affect transportation systems. In this regard, this research will undoubtedly provide new insights in term of methodology and traffic pattern analysis under disruptions, especially with regard to spatial scale effects. The results indicate that at the municipality level, it is possible to capture the effects of disruptions on travel behavior. In this context, further disaggregation is needed in future studies for identifying to what extent results are sensitive to disaggregation. In addition, results also suggest that the target sub-population exposed to flood risk should be isolated from the rest of the travel demand to reach have more sensitive effects. [less ▲]

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See detailÉvaluation des impacts économiques indirects selon un scénario de risque d’inondation
Saadi, Ismaïl ULg; El Saeid Mustafa, Ahmed Mohamed ULg; Teller, Jacques ULg et al

in Recueil des articles des 34èmes Rencontres Universitaires de Génie Civil de l'AUGC (2016)

In this paper, we propose an integrated framework to estimate the indirect economic impact due to flood risk in Belgium. By taking into account the land-use change and different scenarios of climate ... [more ▼]

In this paper, we propose an integrated framework to estimate the indirect economic impact due to flood risk in Belgium. By taking into account the land-use change and different scenarios of climate change, the economic impact can be estimated at the micro-scale level using an Input-Output (I-O) approach. I-O is an econometric model that represents the structure of an economy in the form of a Production-Consumption (P-C) matrix. From a physical point of view, it corresponds to commodity flows between different sectors classified according to the NACE code. This approach is implemented to describe and to better understand the propagation of higher order damage through the entire economic structure. This tool can be used to take strategic decisions in the case of transport and land-use policies within vulnerable areas. [less ▲]

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See detailHidden Markov Model-based population synthesis
Saadi, Ismaïl ULg; El Saeid Mustafa, Ahmed Mohamed ULg; Teller, Jacques ULg et al

in Transportation Research. Part B : Methodological (2016), 90

Micro-simulation travel demand and land use models require a synthetic population, which consists of a set of agents characterized by demographic and socio-economic attributes. Two main families of ... [more ▼]

Micro-simulation travel demand and land use models require a synthetic population, which consists of a set of agents characterized by demographic and socio-economic attributes. Two main families of population synthesis techniques can be distinguished: (a) fitting methods (iterative proportional fitting, updating) and (b) combinatorial optimization methods. During the last few years, a third outperforming family of population synthesis procedures has emerged, i.e., Markov process-based methods such as Monte Carlo Markov Chain (MCMC) simulations. In this paper, an extended Hidden Markov Model (HMM)-based approach is presented, which can serve as a better alternative than the existing methods. The approach is characterized by a great flexibility and efficiency in terms of data preparation and model training. The HMM is able to reproduce the structural configuration of a given population from an unlimited number of micro-samples and a marginal distribution. Only one marginal distribution of the considered population can be used as a boundary condition to “guide” the synthesis of the whole population. Model training and testing are performed using the Survey on the Workforce of 2013 and the Belgian National Household Travel Survey of 2010. Results indicate that the HMM method captures the complete heterogeneity of the micro-data contrary to standard fitting approaches. The method provides accurate results as it is able to reproduce the marginal distributions and their corresponding multivariate joint distributions with an acceptable error rate (i.e., SRSME=0.54 for 6 synthesized attributes). Furthermore, the HMM outperforms IPF for small sample sizes, even though the amount of input data is less than that for IPF. Finally, simulations show that the HMM can merge information provided by multiple data sources to allow good population estimates. [less ▲]

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See detailAn integrated framework for forecasting travel behavior using Markov Chain Monte-Carlo simulation and profile Hidden Markov Models
Saadi, Ismaïl ULg; El Saeid Mustafa, Ahmed Mohamed ULg; Teller, Jacques ULg et al

in Proceedings of the 95th Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board (2016)

Recent advances in agent-based micro-simulation modelling have further underlined the importance of a thorough full synthetic population procedure to guarantee a correct characterization of the true ... [more ▼]

Recent advances in agent-based micro-simulation modelling have further underlined the importance of a thorough full synthetic population procedure to guarantee a correct characterization of the true population. We propose an integrated approach including Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation and profiling based methods to catch the complexity and the diversity of agents of the true population through representative micro samples. The population synthesis method is capable of building the joint distribution of a given population with its corresponding marginal distributions (e.g. age, gender, socio-professional status etc.) using complete, partial conditional probabilities or both of them at the same time. Particularly, the estimation of socio-demographic variables and characterization of daily activity-travel patterns are included within the framework. Data stemming from the 2010 Belgian Household Daily Travel Survey (BELDAM) are used to calibrate the modelling framework. We illustrate that this framework catches in an efficient way the behavioral heterogeneity of travelers. Furthermore, we show that the proposed framework is adequately adapted to build large scale micro-simulation scenarios of transportation and urban systems. [less ▲]

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See detailFiscalité et Aménagement du Territoire
Bianchet, Bruno ULg; Xhignesse, Guillaume ULg; Copée, Pierre ULg et al

Report (2015)

Cette recherche consiste en une réflexion sur la fiscalité en tant qu'outil d'aménagement du territoire et en tant que moyen de recontrer les défis du développement territorial, dans le contexte wallon ... [more ▼]

Cette recherche consiste en une réflexion sur la fiscalité en tant qu'outil d'aménagement du territoire et en tant que moyen de recontrer les défis du développement territorial, dans le contexte wallon. Elle s'intègre dans le contexte des débats qui entourent la sixième réforme de l'Etat belge. Elle a pour objectif l'établissement d'un cadre utilisable pour l'évaluation de certains effets territoriaux suite à la mise en oeuvre ou à la modification de politiques fiscales. In fine, elle aboutira à des propositions d'adaptation ou de mise au point de nouvelles mesures en vue de rencontrer les défis territoriaux. Afin d'atteindre ces objectifs, elle se concentre également sur la mise en évidence des liens existants entre le système fiscal en place et certains défis territoriaux. Son objet est restreint au logement et à l'aménagement en lien avec le logement. [less ▲]

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See detailModelling Agents’ Behavior in the Context of River Floods: An Ant Colony based Approach
Saadi, Ismaïl ULg; El Saeid Mustafa, Ahmed Mohamed ULg; Teller, Jacques ULg et al

Conference (2015, September)

This paper presents a model for understanding short-term travelers’ behavior in the context of river floods. In several cities, river floods are considerably affecting urban transportation systems. In ... [more ▼]

This paper presents a model for understanding short-term travelers’ behavior in the context of river floods. In several cities, river floods are considerably affecting urban transportation systems. In this regard, decision makers need comprehensive models to define efficient risk management strategies. The dynamic nature of this problem requires an algorithm able to deal with traffic redirecting during the micro-simulation process. Furthermore, a transportation network contains a significant number of links and nodes which lead to large computation times. In this regard, an Ant Colony Optimization (ACO) algorithm is proposed to solve such combinatorial problems. In a basic ACO, some ants/agents might push the algorithm to converge toward non-optimal solutions. In this context, a MAX-MIN Ant System (AS) approach is included in the algorithm to stimulate the best solutions. In addition, the discrete choice model is adapted to allow more behavioral reactions regarding simulated river floods. [less ▲]

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See detailModelling Uncertainties in Long-Term Predictions of Urban Growth: A Coupled Cellular Automata and Agent-Based Approach
El Saeid Mustafa, Ahmed Mohamed ULg; Saadi, Ismaïl ULg; Cools, Mario ULg et al

in Ferreira, Joseph; Goodspeed, Robert (Eds.) Proceedings of CUPUM 2015 (2015, July 07)

Modelling the growth of urban settlements is of considerable interest for different applications, amongst which integrated flood management. This study aims at modelling urban growth for a long time ... [more ▼]

Modelling the growth of urban settlements is of considerable interest for different applications, amongst which integrated flood management. This study aims at modelling urban growth for a long time horizon up to 2100 and to integrate the model outcomes with a hydrological model for the same time horizon. Forecasting land-use change over such time frames entails very significant uncertainties. In this regard, the main focus of this paper is attributed to the handling of uncertainty in an urban growth model. To this end, we examine a Monte Carlo Simulation method, which is integrated in the proposed urban growth model. Transition probabilities for each non-urban cell are estimated by a coupled Cellular Automata-Agent-Based ap-proach. The results help to handle uncertainty over long time horizons and to assess the increment in degree of uncertainty at every time-step. [less ▲]

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See detailUrban Development as a Continuum: A Multinomial Logistic Regression Approach
El Saeid Mustafa, Ahmed Mohamed ULg; Cools, Mario ULg; Saadi, Ismaïl ULg et al

in Gervasi, Osvaldo; Murgante, Beniamino; Misra, Sanjay (Eds.) et al Computational Science and Its Applications – ICCSA 2015, Part III (2015)

Urban development is a complex process influenced by a number of driving forces, including spatial planning, topography and urban economics. Identifying these drivers is crucial for the regulation of ... [more ▼]

Urban development is a complex process influenced by a number of driving forces, including spatial planning, topography and urban economics. Identifying these drivers is crucial for the regulation of urban development and the calibration of predictive models. Existing land-use models generally consider urban development as a binary process, through the identification of built versus non-built areas. This study considers urban development as a continuum, characterized by different level of densities, which can be related to different driving forces. A multinomial logistic regression model was employed to investigate the effects of drivers on different urban densities during the past decade in Wallonia, Belgium. Sixteen drivers were selected from sets of driving forces including accessibility, geophysical features, policies and socioeconomic factors. It appears that urban development in Wallonia is remarkably influenced by land-use policies and accessibility. Most importantly, our results highlight that the impact of different drivers varies along with urban density. [less ▲]

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See detailLanduse change and future flood risk: an integrated and multi-scale approach
Dewals, Benjamin ULg; Bruwier, Martin ULg; Mohamed El Saeid Mustafa, Ahmed ULg et al

in E-proceedings of the 36th IAHR World Congress (2015, June)

The goal of this research is a better understanding of the complex interactions between landuse change and future flood risk. Landuse change is mainly driven by population growth and socio-economic ... [more ▼]

The goal of this research is a better understanding of the complex interactions between landuse change and future flood risk. Landuse change is mainly driven by population growth and socio-economic factors. It affects future flood risk by altering catchment hydrology and vulnerability in the floodplains, as well as through the feedback effect that changes in flood hazard may have on landuse evolution. The research is based on a chain of modelling tools, including: stochastic landuse change modelling, traffic modelling as well as Land-Use and Transport Interactions models, continuous hydrological modelling and efficient hydraulic modelling of floodplains inundation. The coupling of these modelling tools will allow assessing direct and indirect impacts of land use change on future flood risk, while considering the uncertainties related to each of these processes and their combinations at a 2100 time horizon. [less ▲]

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See detailThe stadium of Olympia: a dialogical composition
Kiuri, Miranda; Teller, Jacques ULg

in Montanola, J (Ed.) International Journal Arquitectonics: Architecture, phenomenology & social dialogics (2015)

The article proposes a renewed interpretation of the relation of the antique stadium of Olympia with its built environment. It is argued that the stadium, far from being isolated from the city as commonly ... [more ▼]

The article proposes a renewed interpretation of the relation of the antique stadium of Olympia with its built environment. It is argued that the stadium, far from being isolated from the city as commonly considered, was connected to the Altis through a series of visual relations, adopting principles of dialogical architecture: composition, significant location, functional routes, perceptions, role of architectonic elements and spatial characteristics. This argument is illustrated through computer-generated perspectives of the stadium. [less ▲]

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See detailOlympic stadiums and Cultural heritage: on the nature and status of heritage values in large sport facilities.
Kiuri, Miranda; Teller, Jacques ULg

in International Journal of the History of Sport (2015)

This paper investigates Olympic stadium heritage values and their cultural significance. It outlines the main challenges in stadium conservation through the interplay between bequest and use values. A ... [more ▼]

This paper investigates Olympic stadium heritage values and their cultural significance. It outlines the main challenges in stadium conservation through the interplay between bequest and use values. A value analysis of listed Olympic stadiums reveals that these are characterized by a specific heritage profile, related to the uniqueness and singularity of the buildings, of the landscape and of the sporting event. The history of architecture and sport are clearly interwoven in these places, as Olympic stadiums appear as testimonies of the evolution of sport and its status for past and present societies. Such an interpretation of Olympic stadium heritage could allow a better Olympic and sporting heritage evaluation and conservation, especially if the ensemble of existing Olympic stadiums was considered as a World Heritage network. [less ▲]

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See detailResearch Self-Evaluation Report of the Department ArGEnCo
Collin, Frédéric ULg; Dewals, Benjamin ULg; Elsen, Catherine ULg et al

Report (2015)

Evaluation is nowadays a general trend in the European Universities. At the University of Liège, the evaluation process is threefold: fist there is the evaluation of the bachelor and master degrees, then ... [more ▼]

Evaluation is nowadays a general trend in the European Universities. At the University of Liège, the evaluation process is threefold: fist there is the evaluation of the bachelor and master degrees, then the second evaluation concerns the internal administrations and finally Research activities are being evaluated. This quality policy at the different levels of the Institution is organized by the Vice-Rector for Quality, Pr. Freddy Coignoul and the SMAQ service (Service de Management et d’Accompagnement à la Qualité), which aims to promote, coordinate and disseminate within the University of Liège a culture of the Quality, founded on the values of the Institution. The Research assessment is a procedure undertaken by the University in order to promote the quality of the research in the Departments or research centres. Within the Faculty of Applied Sciences, the evaluation of the Bachelor and Master degrees in Engineering was carried out in 2013 by the AEQES (Agence pour l’Evaluation de la Qualité de l’Enseignement) and CTI (Commission des Titres d’Ingénieur - France). The present report is dedicated to the evaluation of research led in the Education and Research Department (DER) ArGEnCo. The present evaluation report proposes a global presentation of all our research activities. At the Department level, one of the elected members of the Executive Bureau is in charge of the Research, covering both evaluation and quality policy. In October 2013, the Executive bureau appointed a research steering committee, whose fist task was to coordinate the present evaluation report, following the guidelines of the SMAQ service. The draft of such a document arises from the work of the steering committee but also from the contributions of all Department members, who were asked to contribute to the report or to complete databases. The progress of this evaluation report was presented by the Steering committee to the Department Council and during the General Assembly of the Department. Moreover, two Focus groups were organized by the SMAQ service, in order to get the feedback of technician and administrative members on one hand and scientific members on the other hand, on the general organization of the research in the ArGEnCo Department. The reports of these two Focus groups (Appendix 4 in French) underpinned our thinking about our research management. This report is therefore the fist evaluation of the research led in the Department, the present effort should be pursued, and deepened, within the coming years. Some of the databases necessary for the evaluation have been developed in the frame of this procedure. This has resulted in a huge amount of work for every Department members to collect all the data. New procedures in the management of the Department will help establishing the next research evaluation reports systematically, in particular for the collection of the complete dataset. Following the guidelines of the SMAQ service, this evaluation report is divided into two main parts: the fist one focuses on a self-evaluation report of the research activities and the second part presents the Action Plan of the Department for the next five years to come. The self-evaluation report is composed of four Sections: Section one presents the Research organization and topics of the Department, Section two focuses on the Research activities, Section three gives an overview of the mobility (in and out), the attractiveness and the scientific recognition of the Department and finally Section four is dedicated to the resources available in ArGEnCo Department. Each Section ends up with a SWOT analysis. The Action Plan proposed by the Steering Committee results from the analysis of the self-evaluation report, insofar as it synthesizes and prioritizes the actions of the Department for the next fie years. These priorities are formulated as proposals following a contractual approach between research entities and Institution authorities, to whom the report will be presented. [less ▲]

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See detailVers une généralisation des quartiers durables ? Présentation du référentiel d’aide à la conception et à l’évaluation développé en Wallonie et analyse prospective de douze quartiers.
Marique, Anne-Françoise ULg; Delbar, Caroline; Loiseau, Véronique ULg et al

in Urbia (2015), 18

Un référentiel a été développé en Wallonie, à la demande du Ministre de l’Environnement, de l’Aménagement du Territoire et de la Mobilité, pour opérationnaliser le concept de « quartier durable » en ... [more ▼]

Un référentiel a été développé en Wallonie, à la demande du Ministre de l’Environnement, de l’Aménagement du Territoire et de la Mobilité, pour opérationnaliser le concept de « quartier durable » en objectivant les critères minimum à respecter pour inscrire un quartier dans une vision transversale de développement durable. Ce référentiel constitue un cadre général qui régira les projets de quartiers durables menés en Wallonie (Belgique). Les 5 thématiques et les 25 critères qui constituent ce référentiel sont présentés. La grille de critères est ensuite appliquée à douze quartiers de façon à identifier les invariants communs aux processus de conception de ces quartiers et les freins à l’intégration des principes transversaux du développement durable dans les opérations de ce type. Si les critères relatifs aux performances énergétiques des bâtiments ont percolé dans un grand nombre de cas, la mixité des logements et leur accessibilité, la mixité sociale et la participation restent peu abordés. Le référentiel est disponible depuis début 2014 pour tous les acteurs de l’architecture et de l’urbanisme. [less ▲]

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See detailDevelopment of thermal comfort models for various climatic zones of North-East India
Singh, Manoj Kumar ULg; Mahapatra, Sadhan; Teller, Jacques ULg

in Sustainable Cities and Society (2015), 14

Thermal comfort study provides crucial information about thermal performance of naturally ventilated buildings. Humphreys and Auliciems comfort model uses indoor and outdoor temperatures to predict ... [more ▼]

Thermal comfort study provides crucial information about thermal performance of naturally ventilated buildings. Humphreys and Auliciems comfort model uses indoor and outdoor temperatures to predict comfort temperatures. It is found that the comfort temperatures obtained by using these methods do not take into account the occupant behavioral adaptability to a particular climatic zone. This demands development of new set of comfort models based on local environmental parameters, socio-cultural setup and behavioral action. Analysis shows that four major variables like indoor and outdoor temperature, relative humidity and clothing pattern plays an important role in defining comfort and greatly influence the occupant’s perception and acceptance on thermal comfort. In this study, comfort models are developed based on these variables. The computed neutral temperatures based on the models are compared with the comfort temperatures obtained through comfort survey. The models are developed using the measured data of January and July months and validated with the measured data of April and October months. This study also concludes that it is not possible to obtain a generalized thermal comfort model for all climatic zone because adaptation process, expectation and perception of people are region specific and governed by local socio-cultural requirement. [less ▲]

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See detailDe la territorialisation des controverses : métropolisation, déterritorialisation et (re)territorialisation à Beyrouth
Farah, Jihad; Teller, Jacques ULg

in Métropoles (2015), 16

This article deals with modalities of deterritorialisation and reterritorialisation in cities undergoing metropolisation processes. In these cities, territorial evolution is becoming less related to ... [more ▼]

This article deals with modalities of deterritorialisation and reterritorialisation in cities undergoing metropolisation processes. In these cities, territorial evolution is becoming less related to logics of centrality linking the city and its hinterlands. It is more affected by competition logics between different centralities anchored in different local and international actors and place networks, leading to the “deterritorialisation” of the city. This evolution represents a considerable political challenge for urban citizens as well as for institutions in charge of urban regulation. The main answers to this challenge usually aim to bring back coherence through efforts of “reterritorialisation”. This reterritorialisation builds on territorial governance strategies that may deploy on three different scales : metropolitan, regional or local. Through the case of Beirut, this article stresses that, though of different or even opposing nature, these three forms of territorial governance may be simultaneously operating in the same urban context. The article also asserts that focusing on the development of controversies linked to the organization and use of urban space, and mainly to large urban projects, could serve as a framework for understanding the articulation, tension and mutual development of these governances. Controversies push actors to position themselves, build or redefine networks and engage in projects that would transform urban space, resulting in various modalities of reterritorialisation of the city. [less ▲]

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See detailModeling accessibility to schools: the case of Wallonia, Belgium
Maldague, Hubert ULg; Teller, Jacques ULg; Cools, Mario ULg

in Rasouli, Soora; Timmermans, Harry (Eds.) Current Issues in Transportation Research, Proceedings of the BIVEC/GIBET Transport Research Days 2015 (2015)

Several recent studies about school mobility highlighted the significant decline of active modes and public transport's modal shares. Associated with this decline, it can be observed that distances ... [more ▼]

Several recent studies about school mobility highlighted the significant decline of active modes and public transport's modal shares. Associated with this decline, it can be observed that distances between home and schools have been rising the last two decades. To develop appropriate policies alleviating the negative effects of the increased motorization in the school commute, a diagnosis of probable causes is required. To perform this diagnosis, we develop an accessibility-based methodology using data stemming from the Belgian national household travel (BELDAM) survey. Gamma-functions are calibrated to describe the use of different transport modes according to their relative travel times. Data from OpenStreetMap are used to describe the Walloon roads network in terms of the maximum allowed vehicle speed and length for each link. Properties of the network are modified to match with other transport modes. Maps of accessibility to schools are computed for each transport mode by merging the value of access time represented by isochrones and the calibrated gamma-functions. [less ▲]

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See detailMeasuring the Effect of Stochastic Perturbation Component in Cellular Automata Urban Growth Model
El Saeid Mustafa, Ahmed Mohamed ULg; Saadi, Ismaïl ULg; Cools, Mario ULg et al

in Procedia Environmental Sciences (2014), 22(Winter), 156168

Urban environments are complex dynamic systems whose prediction of the future states cannot exclusively rely on deterministic rules. Although several studies on urban growth were carried out using ... [more ▼]

Urban environments are complex dynamic systems whose prediction of the future states cannot exclusively rely on deterministic rules. Although several studies on urban growth were carried out using different modelling approaches, the measurement of uncertainties was commonly neglected in these studies. This paper investigates the effect of uncertainty in urban growth models by introducing a stochastic perturbation method. A cellular automaton is used to simulate predicted urban growth. The effect of stochastic perturbation is addressed by comparing series of urban growth simulations based on different degree of stochastic perturbation randomness with the original urban growth simulation, obtained with the sole cellular automata neighbouring effects. These simulations are evaluated using cell-to-cell location agreement and a number of spatial metrics. The model framework has been applied to the Ourthe river basin in Belgium. The results show that the accuracy of the model is increased by introducing a stochastic perturbation component with a limited degree of randomness, in the cellular automata urban growth model. [less ▲]

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See detailMilieuongelijkheden: een onderzoek naar de woonomstandigheden in Wallonië
Lejeune, Zoé ULg; Xhignesse, Guillaume ULg; Kryvobokov, Marko et al

in Dierckx, Danielle; Coene, Jill; Raeymaeckers, Peter (Eds.) Armoede en Sociale Uitsluiting, Jaarboek 2014 (2014)

This article has two aims. Firstly, to introduce the important environmental inequality scholarship, mostly imported from the USA, in the Belgian context, where few studies have been carried out to date ... [more ▼]

This article has two aims. Firstly, to introduce the important environmental inequality scholarship, mostly imported from the USA, in the Belgian context, where few studies have been carried out to date on this topic. Secondly, to propose an unconventional approach to environmental inequality scholarship by focusing on housing conditions as substantial environmental inequalities. On this latter premise, we based this study on the CEHD housing quality survey carried out in 2012 and 2013 in Wallonia, to test several hypotheses as regards the relationships between housing quality, poverty, and spatial differentiation – discrepancies among population and space. The results confirm most of our research hypotheses, showing important inequalities in terms of housing conditions between wealthy and poor populations, as well as between urban areas, on the one hand, and suburban and rural areas, on the other. Our findings call for new avenues and priorities for housing policies in Wallonia, and for further research on housing quality as environmental inequality: with a focus on a specific target public – single households, and on subjective perception of environmental nuisances in and surrounding home. [less ▲]

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