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See detailSurface effects of active folding, illustrated with examples from the TianShan
Hubert, Aurelia ULg; Suppe, J; Gonzalez-Mieres, J. et al

Conference (2005, July)

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See detailIrregular earthquake cycle along the southern Tianshan front, China (Aksu area)
Hubert, Aurelia ULg; Suppe, J.; Van Der Woerd, J. et al

in Journal of Geophysical Research (2005), 110(10.1029/2003JB002603),

A long deformation record (􏰩16.5 ka) showing nonsteady earthquake recurrence is established for the Aksu thrust (Tianshan, China) on the basis of cosmogenic 10Be dating of faulted surfaces. Topographic ... [more ▼]

A long deformation record (􏰩16.5 ka) showing nonsteady earthquake recurrence is established for the Aksu thrust (Tianshan, China) on the basis of cosmogenic 10Be dating of faulted surfaces. Topographic leveling across the Aksu fault scarp indicates up to 􏰩10 m uplift across a moraine abandoned 􏰩16.5 ka and similar uplift of 􏰩6 m across two inset surfaces yielding ages of 􏰩12.5 and 􏰩5 ka. Successively smaller uplifts of terraces younger than 5 ka indicate that three or more major earthquakes occurred during this period. These data show that the Aksu thrust fault was quiet for at least 7500 years and active in the last 􏰩5000 years and probably in the interval 16.5–12.5 ka. The seismic cycle along the Aksu thrust fault over the last 􏰩16,500 years was thus strongly irregular showing long quiescence and clustering, which is a challenge for paleoseismology and hazard assessment. This irregularity also makes it more difficult to estimate long-term shortening rates. Nevertheless, we are able to constrain a minimum total shortening rate (>7 mm/yr) across the southern Tianshan front for the last 12,500 years that is about a third of the total geodetic rate for the western Tianshan (􏰩20 mm/yr). [less ▲]

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See detailRelationships between incremental and cumulative fold growth with neotectonic examples from the southern Tianshan, China
Suppe, J; Hubert, Aurelia ULg; Wang, Xin

in EOS : Transactions, American Geophysical Union (2004, December)

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See detailA Long-Term Slip-Rate Study Along The North Anatolian Fault, Eksik, Turkey Using Cosmogenic 36Cl
Kozaci, O; Dolan, J; Finkel, R et al

in EOS : Transactions, American Geophysical Union (2004, December)

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See detailThe long active Southern Tianshan Thrust Belt, Kuche, Xianjiang China
Suppe, J; Hubert, Aurelia ULg

in Geological Society of America Abstracts with Programs (2004, October), 35(5), 270

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See detailYaken detachment fold, Southern Tianshan, China
Hubert, Aurelia ULg; Suppe, J.; Wang, X. et al

in American Association of Petroleum Geologists Atlas (2004)

Yakeng anticline illustrates the importance of working in the thickness domain when interpreting detachment folds. Measure- ments in the thickness domain show that Yakeng has 1.2 km shorten- ing above a ... [more ▼]

Yakeng anticline illustrates the importance of working in the thickness domain when interpreting detachment folds. Measure- ments in the thickness domain show that Yakeng has 1.2 km shorten- ing above a basal two levels of major detachment, basal diapirism, basement folding, and a 2.4-km-thick growth sequence. [less ▲]

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See detailFirst order elastic modeling of the Aden ridge propagation and the Anatolian extrusion process
Hubert, Aurelia ULg; King, G. C. P.; Manighetti, I. et al

in Geophysical Journal International (2003), 153

The evolution of the Gulf of Aden and the Anatolian Fault systems are modelled using the principles of elastic fracture mechanics usually applied to smaller scale cracks or faults. The lithosphere is ... [more ▼]

The evolution of the Gulf of Aden and the Anatolian Fault systems are modelled using the principles of elastic fracture mechanics usually applied to smaller scale cracks or faults. The lithosphere is treated as a plate, and simple boundary conditions are applied that correspond to the known plate boundary geometry and slip vectors. The models provide a simple explanation for many observed geological features. For the Gulf of Aden the model predicts why the ridge propagated from east to west from the Owen Fracture Zone towards the Afar and the overall form of its path. The smaller en echelon offsets can be explained by upward propagation from the initially created mantle dyke while the larger ones may be attributed to the propagating rupture interacting with pre-existing structures. For Anatolia the modelling suggests that the East Anatolian Fault was created before the North Anatolian Fault could form. Once both faults were formed however, activity could switch between them. The time scales over which this should take place are not known, but evidence for switching can be found in the historical seismicity. For Aden and Anatolia pre-existing structures or inhomogeneous stress fields left from earlier orogenic events have modified the processes of propagation and without an understanding of the existence of such features the propagation processes cannot be fully understood. Furthermore a propagating fault can extend into an active region where it would not have initiated. The North Anatolian Fault encountered slow but active extension when it entered the Aegean about 5 Ma and the stress field associated with the extending fault has progressively modified Aegean extension. In the central Aegean activity has been reduced while to the north-west on features such as the Gulfs of Evvia and Corinth activity has been increased. The field observation that major structures propagate and the success of simple elastic mod- els suggest that the continental crust behaves in an elastic-brittle or elastic-plastic fashion even though laboratory tests may be interpreted to suggest viscous behaviour. There are major prob- lems in scaling from the behaviour of small homogeneous samples to the large heterogeneous mantle and large-scale observations should be treated more seriously than extrapolations of the behaviour of laboratory experiments over many orders of magnitude in space and time. The retention of long-term elasticity and localised failure suggests a similar gross rheology for the oceanic and continental lithospheres. Even though it is incorrect to attribute differences in behaviour to the former being rigid (i.e. elastic) and the latter viscous, oceanic and continental lithosphere behave in different ways. Unlike oceanic crust, continental crust is buoyant and cannot be simply created or destroyed. The process of thickening or thinning works against gravity preventing large displacements on extensional or contractional features in the upper mantle. The equivalents of ridge or subduction systems are suppressed before they can accom- modate large displacements and activity must shift elsewhere. On the other hand, strike-slip boundaries and extrusion processes are favoured. [less ▲]

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See detailLong-term Elasticity in the Continental Lithosphere; Modelling the Aden Ridge Propagation and the Anatolian Extrusion Process
King, G; Hubert, Aurelia ULg

in EOS : Transactions, American Geophysical Union (2002, December), 83

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See detailQuaternary folding in the south piedmont of central segment of Tianshan Mountains
Huafu, Lu; Dong, Jia; Suppe, J. et al

in Chinese Science Bulletin (2002), 47

The Tianshan Mountains are an important active structural belt in the interior of Eurasia. By integrated methods of surface geology survey and interpretation of seismic profiles, we distinguish fold ... [more ▼]

The Tianshan Mountains are an important active structural belt in the interior of Eurasia. By integrated methods of surface geology survey and interpretation of seismic profiles, we distinguish fold scarps located at the south limb of the Kuqatawu anticline and the north limb of the Dongqiulitag anticline in the Kuqa rejuvenation foreland thrust belt, south piedmont of central segment of the Tian- shan Mountains. Fold scarp is a newly found structural phenomenon. Because of the bend of thrust plane and the movement of hanging wall above the thrust plane, the origi- nal horizontal deposits of hanging wall and their surface become a monocline structure, resulting from the separating and migration of the active and fixed axial surfaces. Meas- uring the geometry of fold scarp and using the data of age of the deformed deposits, the crustal shortening rate resulting from the deeply seated subsurface thrust is calculated. The crustal shortening rate reflected by the fold scarp located at the north limb of the Dngqiulitag anticline is (1␣0.1) mm/a. The fold scarps of the Dongqiulitag anticline and the Ku- qatawu anticline identify that the deformation process of the crustal compressive structures in the Kuqa area extends into the Late Quaternary. [less ▲]

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See detailDeconstructing folds in the depth and thickness domains: examples of the active Yakeng anticline, XinJiang China
Suppe, J; Hubert, Aurelia ULg; Wang, Xin

in Geological Society of America Abstract with Programs (2002, October)

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See detailActive thrusting and earthquake recurrence near Aksu, southern TianShan (China)
Hubert, Aurelia ULg; Suppe, J; Van der Woerd, J. et al

Conference (2002, April)

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See detailLong-term elasticity in the continental lithosphere; Modelling the Aden Ridge Propagation and the Anatolian Extrusion Process
King, J; Hubert, Aurelia ULg

in Geophysical Research Abstracts (2002, April), 4

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See detailThe Quaternary fault in Jiamu area, the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region
Huafu, Lu; Shengli, Wang; Suppe, John et al

in Chinese Sciences Bulletin (2002), 47(6), 494-499

The Quaternary Tailan River fault has been found in the Tianshan foothills area, the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region. It is the recent boundary fault of the Tarim Basin coupling with the West Tianshan ... [more ▼]

The Quaternary Tailan River fault has been found in the Tianshan foothills area, the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region. It is the recent boundary fault of the Tarim Basin coupling with the West Tianshan Mountains. In the light of measurement data of the slip which cuts the Quaternary deposits of different ages, the Quaternary kine- matic figures of the Tailan River fault are estimated as fol- lows: crustal shortening 3.7 km and shortening rate 1.59 mm/a, uplift of Tianshan Mountains 1.34 km and uplift rate 0.56 mm/a, and additional relief of 900 m. Considering the contribution of the Gumubiezi anticline close to the south of the Tailan River fault, the Quaternary crustal shortening and shortening rate of the Jiamu area are 4.8 km and 2 mm/a respectively. The above-mentioned data coincide with the crustal shortening rate calculated from the growth strata in the Kuqa area, as well as the GPS measurements in the Lake Issyk area and the Korla-Urumqi area, reflecting the fast thrusting period within the shortening tectonic processes of the rejuvenation foreland basin in front of the southern foothill of the West Tianshan Mountains since Neogene. [less ▲]

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See detailMorphology, displacement and slip rates along the North Antolian Fault (Turkey)
Hubert, Aurelia ULg; Armijo, R.; Meyer, B. et al

in Journal of Geophysical Research (2002), 107(10.1029/2001JB000393),

Geological and geomorphological offsets at different scales are used to constrain the localization of deformation, total displacement, and slip rates over various timescales along the central and eastern ... [more ▼]

Geological and geomorphological offsets at different scales are used to constrain the localization of deformation, total displacement, and slip rates over various timescales along the central and eastern North Anatolian Fault (NAF) in Turkey. The NAF total displacement is reevaluated using large rivers valleys (80 ± 15 km) and structural markers (Pontide Suture, 85 ± 25 km; Tosya-Vezirko ̈pru ̈ basins, 80 ± 10 km). These suggest a Neogene slip rate of 6.5 mm/yr over 13 Myr. The river network morphology shows offsets at a range of scales (20 m to 14 km) across the main fault trace and is also used to estimate the degree to which deformation is localized. At a smaller scale the morphology associated with small rivers is offset by 200 m along the NAF. The age of these features can be correlated with the Holocene deglaciation and a slip rate of 18 ± 3.5 mm/yr is determined. This is consistent with a rate of 18 ± 5 mm/yr deduced independently from the 14C dating of stream terrace offsets. Over the short term, GPS data gives a similar rate of 22 ± 3 mm/yr. All our results tend to show that most of the deformation between the Anatolian and Eurasian lithospheric plates has been accommodated along, or very close to, the active trace of the NAF. The difference between the Neogene and the Holocene slip rate may be due to the recent establishment of the current plate geometry after the creation of the NAF. INDEX TERMS: 8107 Tectonophysics: Continental neotectonics; 8158 Tectonophysics: Plate motions—present and recent (3040); 7230 Seismology: Seismicity and seismotectonics; KEYWORDS: North Anatolian Fault, slip rate, total offset, strain localization [less ▲]

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See detailEstimation of shortening rate since late Pleistocene in the Aksu area on the southern flank of the Tianshan
Wang, X.; Jia, C. Z.; Hubert, Aurelia ULg et al

in Science in China. Series D : Earth Sciences (2001), 44

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See detailColomb interactions and the 17 August 1999 Izmit, Turkey earthquake
King, G. C. P.; Hubert, Aurelia ULg; Nalbant, S. S. et al

in Comptes Rendu de l’Académie des Sciences de Paris - Série 2. Sciences de la terre et des planètes (2001), 333(rie 2. Sciences de la terre et des planètes), 557-569

At 00:02 GMT (03:02 local time) on 17 August, 1999 a magnitude 7.4 (Ms) earthquake occurred 100 km east of Istanbul causing extensive destruction. The event was expected and several scientists have ... [more ▼]

At 00:02 GMT (03:02 local time) on 17 August, 1999 a magnitude 7.4 (Ms) earthquake occurred 100 km east of Istanbul causing extensive destruction. The event was expected and several scientists have published and attempted to publicize the danger. A paper on stress interactions for NW Turkey (J. Geophys. Res. 103 (1998) 24466–24469) concluded that “by combining the stress change map with the map of active faulting, likely locations for the occurrence of future earthquakes can be refined; faults in the Izmit Bay area, the western part of Biga Peninsula, the Saroz Gulf and a part of western Sea of Marmara must be regarded as posing a specific hazard”. An extension of that study is described here. It is shown that the Izmit (1999) earthquake loaded faults both to the east and west of the Izmit rupture. About three months after the Izmit event an M 7.2 earthquake occurred with an epicenter at Duzce extending the Izmit rupture to the east. In the Marmara Sea, west of Izmit, faults have been loaded by between 1 and 5 bar; 5 to 30 % of typical earthquake stress drops in the region suggesting the likelihood of a future event. The risk of a major event on a fault depends not just on stress increases associated with an individual earthquake, but also on the longer-term earthquake history and on tectonic loading. The roles of both are examined over two time periods from 1900 to 1999 and 1700 to 1999. Whatever interpretation we place on the data we conclude that one or two events as great or greater than the recent one is likely to occur within the next few decades near to the northern coast of the Marmara Sea [less ▲]

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See detailSeismic hazard in the Sea of Marmara following the Izmit Earthquake
Hubert, Aurelia ULg; Barka, Aykut; Jacques, Eric et al

in Nature (2000), 404

On 17 August 1999, a destructive magnitude 7.4 earthquake occurred 100 km east of Istanbul, near the city of Izmit, on the North Anatolian fault. This 1,600-km-long plate boundary1,2 slips at an average ... [more ▼]

On 17 August 1999, a destructive magnitude 7.4 earthquake occurred 100 km east of Istanbul, near the city of Izmit, on the North Anatolian fault. This 1,600-km-long plate boundary1,2 slips at an average rate of 2–3 cm yr−1 (refs 3–5), and historically has been the site of many devastating earthquakes6,7. This century alone it has ruptured over 900 km of its length6. Models of earthquake-induced stress change8 combined with active fault maps9 had been used to forecast that the epicentral area of the 1999 Izmit event was indeed a likely location for the occurrence of a large earthquake9,10. Here we show that the 1999 event itself significantly modifies the stress distribution resulting from pre- vious fault interactions9,10. Our new stress models take into account all events in the region with magnitudes greater than 6 having occurred since 1700 (ref. 7) as well as secular interseismic stress change, constrained by GPS data11. These models provide a consistent picture of the long term spatio–temporal behaviour of the North Anatolian fault and indicate that two events of magnitude equal to, or greater than, the Izmit earthquake are likely to occur within the next decades beneath the Marmara Sea, south of Istanbul. [less ▲]

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See detailSeismic hazard in the Sea of Marmara following the 17 August 1999 Izmit Earthquake
Hubert, Aurelia ULg; Barka, A.; Nalbant, S. et al

in Barka (Ed.) The 1999 Izmit and Duzce earthquakes; preliminary results (2000)

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