Estimation of shortening rate since late Pleistocene in the Aksu area on the southern flank of the Tianshan

in Science in China. Series D : Earth Sciences (2001), 44

Seismic hazard in the Sea of Marmara following the Izmit Earthquake

in Nature (2000), 404

On 17 August 1999, a destructive magnitude 7.4 earthquake occurred 100 km east of Istanbul, near the city of Izmit, on the North Anatolian fault. This 1,600-km-long plate boundary1,2 slips at an average ... [more ▼]

On 17 August 1999, a destructive magnitude 7.4 earthquake occurred 100 km east of Istanbul, near the city of Izmit, on the North Anatolian fault. This 1,600-km-long plate boundary1,2 slips at an average rate of 2–3 cm yr−1 (refs 3–5), and historically has been the site of many devastating earthquakes6,7. This century alone it has ruptured over 900 km of its length6. Models of earthquake-induced stress change8 combined with active fault maps9 had been used to forecast that the epicentral area of the 1999 Izmit event was indeed a likely location for the occurrence of a large earthquake9,10. Here we show that the 1999 event itself significantly modifies the stress distribution resulting from pre- vious fault interactions9,10. Our new stress models take into account all events in the region with magnitudes greater than 6 having occurred since 1700 (ref. 7) as well as secular interseismic stress change, constrained by GPS data11. These models provide a consistent picture of the long term spatio–temporal behaviour of the North Anatolian fault and indicate that two events of magnitude equal to, or greater than, the Izmit earthquake are likely to occur within the next decades beneath the Marmara Sea, south of Istanbul. [less ▲]

The fault breaks of the 1999 earthquakes in Turkey and the tectonic evolution of the Sea of Marmara; a summary

in The 1999 Izmit and Duzce earthquakes; preliminary results (2000)

Active deformation along the southern front of the Tianshan Mountains (China)

in EOS (AGU abstract) (1999, December), 79

Deep structure of Southern Tian Shan (China) and its neotectonic expression

Conference (1999, April)

Westward propagation of the North Anatolian fault into the northern Aegean: Timing and kinematics

in Geology (1999), 27

We present new evidence for the propagation processes of the North Anatolian fault. Fold- ing in the Dardanelles Straits region allows us to document the timing of the deformation pre- ceding, and the ... [more ▼]

We present new evidence for the propagation processes of the North Anatolian fault. Fold- ing in the Dardanelles Straits region allows us to document the timing of the deformation pre- ceding, and the finite displacement after, the passage of the propagating tip of the fault. The accuracy of the observations is due to interplay between deformation and the sea-level changes in the Mediterranean (the well-known Messinian regression followed by the Pliocene transgres- sion). The long-term kinematics around the Sea of Marmara pull-apart (total displacement of about 85 km over the past 5 m.y.) is similar to the present-day kinematics deduced from space geodesy. At a larger scale, westward propagation of the North Anatolian fault over nearly 2000 km in the past 10 m.y. appears to be associated with strain recovery, suggesting that the continental lithosphere retains long-term elasticity. [less ▲]

Stress coupling between earthquakes in Northwest Turkey and the North Aegean Sea

in Journal of Geophysical Research (1998), 103

Slip rate of the North Anatolian Fault, Turkey

in EOS (American Geosciences Union abstract) (1997, December), 78

The state of stress near the Mendocino triple Junction from inversion of earthquake focal mechanism

in Geophysical Research Letters (1997), 23

Fault re-activation, stress interaction and rupture propagation of the 1981 Corinth earthquake sequence

in Earth & Planetary Science Letters (1996), 142