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See detailMorphology, displacement and slip rates along the North Antolian Fault (Turkey)
Hubert, Aurelia ULg; Armijo, R.; Meyer, B. et al

in Journal of Geophysical Research (2002), 107(10.1029/2001JB000393),

Geological and geomorphological offsets at different scales are used to constrain the localization of deformation, total displacement, and slip rates over various timescales along the central and eastern ... [more ▼]

Geological and geomorphological offsets at different scales are used to constrain the localization of deformation, total displacement, and slip rates over various timescales along the central and eastern North Anatolian Fault (NAF) in Turkey. The NAF total displacement is reevaluated using large rivers valleys (80 ± 15 km) and structural markers (Pontide Suture, 85 ± 25 km; Tosya-Vezirko ̈pru ̈ basins, 80 ± 10 km). These suggest a Neogene slip rate of 6.5 mm/yr over 13 Myr. The river network morphology shows offsets at a range of scales (20 m to 14 km) across the main fault trace and is also used to estimate the degree to which deformation is localized. At a smaller scale the morphology associated with small rivers is offset by 200 m along the NAF. The age of these features can be correlated with the Holocene deglaciation and a slip rate of 18 ± 3.5 mm/yr is determined. This is consistent with a rate of 18 ± 5 mm/yr deduced independently from the 14C dating of stream terrace offsets. Over the short term, GPS data gives a similar rate of 22 ± 3 mm/yr. All our results tend to show that most of the deformation between the Anatolian and Eurasian lithospheric plates has been accommodated along, or very close to, the active trace of the NAF. The difference between the Neogene and the Holocene slip rate may be due to the recent establishment of the current plate geometry after the creation of the NAF. INDEX TERMS: 8107 Tectonophysics: Continental neotectonics; 8158 Tectonophysics: Plate motions—present and recent (3040); 7230 Seismology: Seismicity and seismotectonics; KEYWORDS: North Anatolian Fault, slip rate, total offset, strain localization [less ▲]

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See detailEstimation of shortening rate since late Pleistocene in the Aksu area on the southern flank of the Tianshan
Wang, X.; Jia, C. Z.; Hubert, Aurelia ULg et al

in Science in China. Series D : Earth Sciences (2001), 44

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See detailColomb interactions and the 17 August 1999 Izmit, Turkey earthquake
King, G. C. P.; Hubert, Aurelia ULg; Nalbant, S. S. et al

in Comptes Rendu de l’Académie des Sciences de Paris - Série 2. Sciences de la terre et des planètes (2001), 333(rie 2. Sciences de la terre et des planètes), 557-569

At 00:02 GMT (03:02 local time) on 17 August, 1999 a magnitude 7.4 (Ms) earthquake occurred 100 km east of Istanbul causing extensive destruction. The event was expected and several scientists have ... [more ▼]

At 00:02 GMT (03:02 local time) on 17 August, 1999 a magnitude 7.4 (Ms) earthquake occurred 100 km east of Istanbul causing extensive destruction. The event was expected and several scientists have published and attempted to publicize the danger. A paper on stress interactions for NW Turkey (J. Geophys. Res. 103 (1998) 24466–24469) concluded that “by combining the stress change map with the map of active faulting, likely locations for the occurrence of future earthquakes can be refined; faults in the Izmit Bay area, the western part of Biga Peninsula, the Saroz Gulf and a part of western Sea of Marmara must be regarded as posing a specific hazard”. An extension of that study is described here. It is shown that the Izmit (1999) earthquake loaded faults both to the east and west of the Izmit rupture. About three months after the Izmit event an M 7.2 earthquake occurred with an epicenter at Duzce extending the Izmit rupture to the east. In the Marmara Sea, west of Izmit, faults have been loaded by between 1 and 5 bar; 5 to 30 % of typical earthquake stress drops in the region suggesting the likelihood of a future event. The risk of a major event on a fault depends not just on stress increases associated with an individual earthquake, but also on the longer-term earthquake history and on tectonic loading. The roles of both are examined over two time periods from 1900 to 1999 and 1700 to 1999. Whatever interpretation we place on the data we conclude that one or two events as great or greater than the recent one is likely to occur within the next few decades near to the northern coast of the Marmara Sea [less ▲]

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See detailSeismic hazard in the Sea of Marmara following the Izmit Earthquake
Hubert, Aurelia ULg; Barka, Aykut; Jacques, Eric et al

in Nature (2000), 404

On 17 August 1999, a destructive magnitude 7.4 earthquake occurred 100 km east of Istanbul, near the city of Izmit, on the North Anatolian fault. This 1,600-km-long plate boundary1,2 slips at an average ... [more ▼]

On 17 August 1999, a destructive magnitude 7.4 earthquake occurred 100 km east of Istanbul, near the city of Izmit, on the North Anatolian fault. This 1,600-km-long plate boundary1,2 slips at an average rate of 2–3 cm yr−1 (refs 3–5), and historically has been the site of many devastating earthquakes6,7. This century alone it has ruptured over 900 km of its length6. Models of earthquake-induced stress change8 combined with active fault maps9 had been used to forecast that the epicentral area of the 1999 Izmit event was indeed a likely location for the occurrence of a large earthquake9,10. Here we show that the 1999 event itself significantly modifies the stress distribution resulting from pre- vious fault interactions9,10. Our new stress models take into account all events in the region with magnitudes greater than 6 having occurred since 1700 (ref. 7) as well as secular interseismic stress change, constrained by GPS data11. These models provide a consistent picture of the long term spatio–temporal behaviour of the North Anatolian fault and indicate that two events of magnitude equal to, or greater than, the Izmit earthquake are likely to occur within the next decades beneath the Marmara Sea, south of Istanbul. [less ▲]

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See detailSeismic hazard in the Sea of Marmara following the 17 August 1999 Izmit Earthquake
Hubert, Aurelia ULg; Barka, A.; Nalbant, S. et al

in Barka (Ed.) The 1999 Izmit and Duzce earthquakes; preliminary results (2000)

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See detailThe fault breaks of the 1999 earthquakes in Turkey and the tectonic evolution of the Sea of Marmara; a summary
Armijo, R.; Meyer, B.; Barka, A. et al

in The 1999 Izmit and Duzce earthquakes; preliminary results (2000)

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See detailSeismic hazard in the Sea of Marmara Following the Izmit Earthquake
King, G.C.P.; Hubert, Aurelia ULg; Barka, A et al

in EOS : Transactions, American Geophysical Union (1999, December), 79

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See detailActive deformation along the southern front of the Tianshan Mountains (China)
Hubert, Aurelia ULg; Suppe, J; Wang, Xin et al

in EOS (AGU abstract) (1999, December), 79

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See detail18 kyr, 120 kyr & 5 Myr shortening rates along the front of the southern Tianshan Mountains (China),
Hubert, Aurelia ULg; Suppe, J; Wang, Xin et al

in Geological Society of America - Abstracts with Programs (1999, October), 31(7),

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See detailDeep structure of Southern Tian Shan (China) and its neotectonic expression
Hubert, Aurelia ULg; Suppe, J.; Wang, X et al

Conference (1999, April)

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See detailThe propagation processes of the North Anatolian fault and the Messinian Crisis of the Mediterranean
Armijo, R; Meyer, B; Hubert, Aurelia ULg et al

in Journal of Conference (EUG abstracts) (1999, April), 4

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See detailWestward propagation of the North Anatolian fault into the northern Aegean: Timing and kinematics
Armijo, R.; Meyer, B.; Hubert, Aurelia ULg et al

in Geology (1999), 27

We present new evidence for the propagation processes of the North Anatolian fault. Fold- ing in the Dardanelles Straits region allows us to document the timing of the deformation pre- ceding, and the ... [more ▼]

We present new evidence for the propagation processes of the North Anatolian fault. Fold- ing in the Dardanelles Straits region allows us to document the timing of the deformation pre- ceding, and the finite displacement after, the passage of the propagating tip of the fault. The accuracy of the observations is due to interplay between deformation and the sea-level changes in the Mediterranean (the well-known Messinian regression followed by the Pliocene transgres- sion). The long-term kinematics around the Sea of Marmara pull-apart (total displacement of about 85 km over the past 5 m.y.) is similar to the present-day kinematics deduced from space geodesy. At a larger scale, westward propagation of the North Anatolian fault over nearly 2000 km in the past 10 m.y. appears to be associated with strain recovery, suggesting that the continental lithosphere retains long-term elasticity. [less ▲]

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See detailCoulomb modeling of Marmara Sea earthquakes since 1700; implications on the earthquake hazard of the Istanbul region
Barka, A; Nalbant, S.B.; Hubert, Aurelia ULg et al

in Annales Geophysicae (1998, April), 16(Suppl. 1), 138

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See detailStress coupling between earthquakes in Northwest Turkey and the North Aegean Sea
Nalbant, Süleyman; Hubert, Aurelia ULg; King, G. C. P.

in Journal of Geophysical Research (1998), 103

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See detailDeformation localisation in continental lithosphere
King, G.C.P.; Tapponnier, P; Armijo, R et al

in EOS (American Geosciences Union abstract) (1997, December), 78

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See detailSlip rate of the North Anatolian Fault, Turkey
Hubert, Aurelia ULg; Armijo, R; King, G.C.P. et al

in EOS (American Geosciences Union abstract) (1997, December), 78

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See detailNew constraints on the slip rate of the North Anatolian Fault, Turkey
Hubert, Aurelia ULg; Armijo, R; Meyer, B et al

in Terra nova (European Union of Geosciences abstracts) (1997, March), 9

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See detailThe state of stress near the Mendocino triple Junction from inversion of earthquake focal mechanism
Schwartz, S. Y.; Hubert, Aurelia ULg

in Geophysical Research Letters (1997), 23

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