References of "Erpicum, Michel"
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See detailAre the CMIP5 GCMs able to simulate atmospheric blocking situations over Europe ?
Belleflamme, Alexandre ULg; Fettweis, Xavier ULg; Erpicum, Michel ULg

Poster (2012, April 26)

Some studies show that most General Circulation Models (GCMs) have difficulties to simulate the main observed circulation patterns and their frequencies. However, this does not only impact the GCM based ... [more ▼]

Some studies show that most General Circulation Models (GCMs) have difficulties to simulate the main observed circulation patterns and their frequencies. However, this does not only impact the GCM based projections for future climate, but also the results of downscaling methods using the circulation simulated by GCMs as forcing. Indeed, the downscaling methods are not able to correct the biases introduced by the GCM simulations in the free atmosphere. Here, we focus on the anticyclonic blocking situations over western Europe for summer (June, July and August). Indeed, these blocking situations, which are often related to droughts and heat waves, could become more frequent due to global warming. Moreover, their frequency and persistence depend on the variability of the circulation, which is known to be difficult to reproduce by the GCMs. In order to evaluate the ability of the GCMs to reproduce the observed frequency and persistence of blocking situations, we compare them with two reanalysis datasets (NCEP-NCAR 1 and ECMWF ERA-40) by using an automatic circulation type classification. The daily geopotential height at 500 hPa over the last 30 years of the current climate simulation (Historical experiment, 1976-2005) of all available CMIP5 GCMs prepared for the upcoming IPCC report AR5 is used here. The circulation type classification groups similar daily circulation situations together on basis of a leader-algorithm to obtain a few homogeneous circulation types describing the general circulation of the region. Thus, the frequency and the persistence of each circulation type can be analysed on a daily timescale. We show that the ability of the GCMs to reproduce the observed frequency and persistence of blocking situations is influenced by the anomalies in their circulation type frequency repartition. So, the GCMs which underestimate the frequency of the anticyclonic types tend to simulate less and shorter blocking situations. The contrary is observed for GCMs that overestimate the frequency of these circulation types. This rises questions about the reliability of the future projections for events related to blocking situations. Indeed, when applying the same approach as for the current climate to the future projections (experiments RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), it seems that the blocking situations become more frequent and persistent. However, when considering only the circulation patterns by removing the mean geopotential height increase due to global warming, there is no significant circulation change till 2100. This means that the GCMs conserve their circulation biases in spite of climate change and so, the frequency and the persistence of the blocking situations are projected to remain almost the same as those simulated for the current climate. [less ▲]

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See detailEvaluation of the regional climate model WRF over Svalbard
Lang, Charlotte ULg; Fettweis, Xavier ULg; Doutreloup, Sébastien ULg et al

Poster (2012, April 24)

It is well known that high latitude zones are very sensitive to climate change. As a result of global warming, ice sheet melting has increased which in turn has an influence on climate through ... [more ▼]

It is well known that high latitude zones are very sensitive to climate change. As a result of global warming, ice sheet melting has increased which in turn has an influence on climate through modifications of the thermohaline circulation, feedback of ice albedo, sea level rise, … Svalbard is an archipelago between 74 and 81°lat N and 60 percent of its area (62 248 km2) is covered with glaciers and ice sheets. The impact of global warming on the Svalbard cryosphere can be estimated with climate models. However, we need to use regional climate models as they offer the possibility of a higher resolution than general circulation models. We have ran two regional climate models (MAR and WRF) at a 10-kilometre resolution between 2006 and 2010 over Svalbard and compared their simulated climate to near surface measurements at several weather stations through the archipelago in order to determine which one of them could best represent the Svalbard climate. [less ▲]

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See detailEstimation, prévision et contrôle du gisement solaire en région wallonne
Doutreloup, Sébastien ULg; Fettweis, Xavier ULg; Erpicum, Michel ULg

Poster (2012, April 23)

Présentation des activités et des recherches du Laboratoire de Climatologie et Topoclimatologie de l'Université de Liège dans le domaine du rayonnement solaire

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See detailApport de la disdrométrie laser au service de la climatologie des hydrométéores
Erpicum, Michel ULg; Fettweis, Xavier; Jorion, Nicolas ULg et al

in Carrega, Pierre (Ed.) Actes des journées de climatologie du CNFG : Climat et Société, Thème : climat et eau, Lyon 2011 (2012, March)

analysis of several rainy days with the support of laser disdrometers in temperate climate (Belgium)

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See detailÉtude fréquentielle de données via la transformée en ondelette : application aux cycles climatiques
Mabille, Georges ULg; Fettweis, Xavier ULg; Erpicum, Michel ULg et al

in Bulletin de la Société Géographique de Liège (2012), 58

Understanding the climate requires a complex study of time series connected to weather parameters. The climatologist frequently applies signal processing tools and often uses the harmonic analysis and the ... [more ▼]

Understanding the climate requires a complex study of time series connected to weather parameters. The climatologist frequently applies signal processing tools and often uses the harmonic analysis and the Fourier transform. This article is dedicated to the description of a new tool, elaborated by mathematicians, which completes the outfit of intruments intended for signal analysis. The scale spectrum, which synthetizes a part of the information supplied by the wavelet transform, possesses the property to reveal pseudo-cycles which evolves around an average period. When applied to air surface temperature time series obtained from more than one hundred weather stations, to reanalysis data and to climatic indices which characterize the tropospheric flows, the wavelet transforms and the scale spectra reveal cycles with periods close to 30 months and 42 months. The Solar parameters analysis also leads to the existence of pseudo-cycles with frequencies corresponding to those found in the temperature time series and climatic indices. [less ▲]

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See detailEvolution of wind behaviour and of its potential for wind power production in Belgium during the last 22 years : a comparison between WRF forced by NCEP2 reanalysis and WRF forced by ERA-INTERIM reanalysis
Doutreloup, Sébastien ULg; Fettweis, Xavier ULg; Erpicum, Michel ULg

Conference (2011, September 16)

The number of wind turbines in the world grows significantly every year due to politics proposing green energy productions as solutions to mitigate climate change effects. However, this kind of energy is ... [more ▼]

The number of wind turbines in the world grows significantly every year due to politics proposing green energy productions as solutions to mitigate climate change effects. However, this kind of energy is dependent on the weather. This implies that the wind production is irregular at a very short time scale. But the short time scale availability of the wind-based energy is important to the producers of energy as well as to the electric grid managers because the wind energy production can rise or fall rapidly which creates some financial and voltage variations. For these reasons, we study the past evolution of the availability of the wind quantity by analysing the intermittence of the wind speed in Belgium during the last 22 years (1989-2010). To reach this goal, we use the regional model WRF (Weather and Research Forecast model) developed by the UCAR community users. In a first time, the WRF model is forced by the NCEP2 reanalysis outputs to obtain a regionalisation of the weather conditions over a domain centred on Belgium at a resolution of 10 km. This resolution allows to capture the minute-based time scale variability of wind speed and consequently the irregular behaviour of the wind power production. In a second time, the WRF model is forced by the ERA-Interim reanalysis outputs with the same configuration. To obtain a value of the wind intermittence, we calculate the persistence of a wind blowing continuously with a minimum speed of 1 ms-1, then the persistence of a wind blowing continuously with a minimum speed of 2 ms-1, etc. The persistence of the wind speed and its evolution over 22 years are characterised by : (a) the mean wind speed over a fixed period (monthly, seasonally, … ), (b) the mean duration of a wind speed above x ms-1 over the same fixed period and (c) the evolution of (a) and (b) during the studied period. This analysis is made with the outputs of WRF-NCEP2 and with the outputs of WRF-Interim allowing to evaluate the impact of forcing fields into WRF-based wind climatology. [less ▲]

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See detailInfluence de la résolution spatiale sur la modélisation du bilan de masse en surface de la calotte glaciaire du Groenland
Franco, Bruno ULg; Fettweis, Xavier ULg; Erpicum, Michel ULg

Conference (2011, September 07)

By using the regional climate model MAR (Modèle Atmosphérique Régional), we have modelled the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) Surface Mass Balance (SMB) at 20, 25, 30, 40 and 50km resolution to assess the ... [more ▼]

By using the regional climate model MAR (Modèle Atmosphérique Régional), we have modelled the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) Surface Mass Balance (SMB) at 20, 25, 30, 40 and 50km resolution to assess the impact of the spatial resolution. As part of the ICE2SEA project, the 25km-resolution SMB outputs of the MAR model are used as forcing fields for ice sheet models, in order to produce projections of the GrIS contribution to sea-level rise over the next 200 years. However, the ice sheet models often run at a higher resolution (typically 5-10km) than the current MAR resolution (25km). Such higher-resolution runs of the MAR model on the same integration domain generate a significant additional computing time and are not doable until now. That is why several enhanced SMB interpolations are tested here in order to reduce biases when interpolating the MAR outputs onto higher resolution, in the framework of the ICE2SEA project. [less ▲]

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See detailInfluences de l'environnement d'un parc éolien sur la prévision de sa production électrique à l'aide des modèles GFS (50km/3h) et WRF (2km/15min) : Le cas du parc éolien d'Amel (Haute-Belgique)
Doutreloup, Sébastien ULg; Fettweis, Xavier ULg; Erpicum, Michel ULg

in Fazzini, Massimiliano; Beltrando, Gérard (Eds.) Actes du XXIVème Colloque International AIC : Climat Montagnard et Risques (2011, September 06)

The economic and climate contexts require to use more electricity from wind farms. However this kind of production is intermittent, therefore it is necessary to forecast this resource at least 1 day ahead ... [more ▼]

The economic and climate contexts require to use more electricity from wind farms. However this kind of production is intermittent, therefore it is necessary to forecast this resource at least 1 day ahead. Our laboratory has developed a forecasting model of wind-based electricity generation based on a global meteorological model (GFS) with a resolution of 50 km and 3 h. But this model has a resolution too coarse for a wind farm. So we have configured the regional model WRF with resolution of 2 km and 15 min to obtain better forecasts. Finally, the WRF model provides better forecasts, but both must be adjusted to take into account the direct environment of the wind farm. [less ▲]

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See detailCirculation atmosphérique simulée par les modèles de circulation générale en Europe de l'ouest : évaluation et projections futures
Belleflamme, Alexandre ULg; Fettweis, Xavier ULg; Erpicum, Michel ULg

in Fazzini, Massimiliano; Beltrando, Gérard (Eds.) XXIVème colloque de l'Association Internationale de Climatologie - Climat montagnard et risques (2011, September)

Atmospheric circulation simulations from general circulation models are used as forcing for downscaling methods and for future projections. Thus, it is essential to evaluate them. An automatic circulation ... [more ▼]

Atmospheric circulation simulations from general circulation models are used as forcing for downscaling methods and for future projections. Thus, it is essential to evaluate them. An automatic circulation type classification is applied to daily 500 hPa geopotential height data. Firstly, the classification is done for the NCEP-NCAR 1 reanalysis, and then the main circulation types are imposed to the simulations of six general circulation models. For recent climate (20C3M scenario), it appears that most models are not able to simulate well the circulation over western Europe, due to biases in the mean geopotential height and an underestimation of the circulation variability. For future climate (A1B scenario), a general increase of the geopotential height is projected, leading to the emergence of new circulation types. [less ▲]

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See detailEstimation of the Sea Level Rise by 2100 Resulting from Changes in the Surface Mass Balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet
Fettweis, Xavier ULg; Belleflamme, Alexandre ULg; Erpicum, Michel ULg et al

in Blanco, Juan; Kheradmand, Houshang (Eds.) Climate Change - Geophysical Foundations and Ecological Effects (2011)

We present here future projections of the Greenland climate performed by the regional climate model MAR coupled with a snow model and forced by two scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions from the global ... [more ▼]

We present here future projections of the Greenland climate performed by the regional climate model MAR coupled with a snow model and forced by two scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions from the global model CanESM2 of the next IPCC assessment report (AR5). Knowing that MAR forced by CanESM2 over the current climate (1970-1999) compares well with the reference MAR simulation performed by using the ERA-40 reanalysis as forcing, this gives us confidence in our future projections. For the RCP4.5 scenario (optimistic) and respectively RCP8.5 scenario (pessimistic), MAR projects a sea level rise in 2100 of 6.5 +/- 1.5 cm and respectively 14+/-2 cm as result of increasing surface melt of the Greenland ice sheet over 2000-2100. It is true that MAR projects a small increase of snowfall in the winter because the atmosphere will be warmer and therefore can contain more water vapor. But this is not sufficient to offset the acceleration of melt, notably for the scenario RCP8.5 which projects an increase of 10 °C in 2100 above the ice sheet. This work fits in the ICE2SEA project (http://www.ice2sea.eu) of the 7th Framework Program (FP7) which aims to improve the projections of the continental ice melting contribution to sea level rise. [less ▲]

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See detailAnalysis of the past (1970-1999) and future (2046-2065 and 2081-2100) evolutions of precipitation and temperature, in the Province of Binh Thuan, South East Vietnam, based on IPCC models
Doutreloup, Sébastien ULg; Erpicum, Michel ULg; Fettweis, Xavier ULg et al

in Proceedings of the 1st International Conference on Energy, Environment and Climate Change (2011, August)

Natural resource-dependent societies in developing countries are facing increased pressures linked to global climate change. The Province of Binh Thuan, in South East Vietnam, where rainfall is on average ... [more ▼]

Natural resource-dependent societies in developing countries are facing increased pressures linked to global climate change. The Province of Binh Thuan, in South East Vietnam, where rainfall is on average 500 to 700 mm but can drop as low as 350 mm in some years, knows a recent increase of agricultural activities in order to contribute to reduce poverty although the technical efficiency of Binh Thuan is still very low. Within this framework of higher dependency of the local economy on the agricultural sector, there is growing evidence that changes in climate extremes are increasing exposure of currently vulnerable rural populations. In order to assess the future climate of the province of Binh Thuan, only three models able to simulate the current climate in the study area were used out of the 24 selected by the IPCC: CCCMA-T47, INGV and IPSL. The future climate projections (that is 2046-2065 and 2081-2100 compared to historical data 1970-1999) were focused on two targets: [i] assessing changes in climate statistics, and [ii] analysing the beginning and the end of the rainy season. [i] The first analysis indicates an increase of mean temperature of about 1.6°C (over 2046-2065) and 2.5°C (over 2081-2100) and an increase of extreme temperatures and extreme rainfall events. However, no significant changes about the evolution of the annual amount of precipitation were found. [ii] The second analysis indicates that the dry season is likely to be longer in 2046-2065 owing to a delay in the onset of the rainy season (up to 15 days) accompanied by an earlier end of the rainy season (up to 30 days). Although it must be kept in mind that precipitations are the most difficult climate variable to predict, it is likely that increasing water needs to support expending agriculture within the context of climate change in the Province of Binh Thuan will be a challenge. Indeed, extreme rainfall events are likely to increase and unchanged yearly amounts of precipitation should be concentrated in time. [less ▲]

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See detailLes empreintes thermiques routières - Convention 2010-2011
Erpicum, Michel ULg; Frédéric, Marc ULg; Jorion, Nicolas ULg et al

Report (2011)

Présentation des résultats des empreintes thermiques routières. La convention hiver 2010-2011 couvre 8 districts de la Région wallonne dans la province du Luxembourg.

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See detailEvaluation of the present and future general circulation over western Europe simulated by the IPCC AR5/CMIP5 GCMs with the help of a circulation type classification
Belleflamme, Alexandre ULg; Fettweis, Xavier ULg; Erpicum, Michel ULg

Conference (2011, April 08)

Downscaling methods forced by General Circulation Model (GCM) simulations are not able to correct the biases in the general circulation simulated by the GCMs. Moreover, since the GCMs have a coarse ... [more ▼]

Downscaling methods forced by General Circulation Model (GCM) simulations are not able to correct the biases in the general circulation simulated by the GCMs. Moreover, since the GCMs have a coarse spatial resolution, they have difficulties to simulate reliably ground variables like temperature and precipitation which are affected by topography, land use and local features. So, we can attempt that they simulate better the large-scale atmospheric circulation. That is why it is of special interest to evaluate the GCM simulations of atmospheric circulation for current climate by comparing them with the NCEP-NCAR 1 and the ECMWF reanalysis data over 1961-1990. This analysis is done over western Europe for summer (JJA) and winter (DJF) for the GCMs (available on http://cmippcmdi.llnl.gov/cmip5/) proposed by the IPCC for its upcoming report (AR5). The method used is an automated circulation type classification based on the daily geopotential height at 500 hPa. It is a leader-algorithm correlation based method taking part of the COST733CAT classification catalogue. Unlike the usually used methods based on the monthly mean circulation, this approach allows a precise analysis of each circulation type. So, it gives much more information on the ability of the GCMs to simulate the different circulation types and consequently the climatic variability of a region. In order to allow a direct comparison between the GCM simulations and the reanalysis data, the classification is done first only for the reanalysis dataset over 1961-1990. Then, the main types individualised here are imposed for the classification of the GCM outputs. Since the circulation types are the same, the comparison between the datasets can be made on the basis of the differences of the frequency distribution throughout the classes. Moreover, the mean intraclass repartition of the circulation situations may differ from one dataset to another. So, the study of this mean and its standard deviation gives an idea of the differences between the reanalysis and the GCMs within each class. Firstly, this approach is applied to current climate (1961-1990) for evaluating the ability of the GCMs driven by the historical experiment to simulate the climate of the last decades over western Europe. In fact, if one GCM is not able to reproduce reliably the main characteristics of the current climate, its future projections may be questionable. Then, the best matching GCMs are retained and the same approach is applied to the future simulations driven by RCP concentrations or emissions (2011-2040, 2041-2070 and 2071-2100). So, the evolution of the frequency of the circulation types and maybe the appearance of new types can be analysed under climate change conditions. Moreover, it is interesting to compare the uncertainty of the current climate simulations to the projected changes for future climate. If the uncertainty is of the same order or higher than the projected changes, the reliability of the simulations for future climate may be very questionable. [less ▲]

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See detailExplanation of the extreme low surface mass balance over the Greenland ice sheet in 2010 with the help of a regional climate model and a circulation type classification.
Fettweis, Xavier ULg; van den Broeke, Michiel; van de Berg, Willem Jan et al

Conference (2011, April 06)

The regional climate models MAR and RCMO show that the surface mass balance (SMB) rate of the whole Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) is the lowest in 2010 since 50 years. This record is a combination of an ... [more ▼]

The regional climate models MAR and RCMO show that the surface mass balance (SMB) rate of the whole Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) is the lowest in 2010 since 50 years. This record is a combination of an abnormal dry year and an exceptional melt in summer confirmed by ground measurements and satellite-derived observations. An automated circulation type classification (CTC) is used for detecting anomalies in the daily atmospheric circulation at 500hPa over the Greenland ice sheet during 2010. The CTC reveals that the low snow accumulation is due to the general circulation (negative NAO index) while the record melt in summer is rather a consequence of the well known surface albedo-temperature feedback induced by - a warmer and thinner than normal snowpack above the bare ice at the end of the spring. - an earlier beginning of the melt season. - a drier summer. - an exceptional persistence of atmospheric circulations inducing warm and dry conditions over the GrIS. All these anomalies induced in summer 2010 an exceptional time exposure of bare ice areas (with a lower albedo than snow) over the GrIS which impacts the surface melt. Sensitivity experiments carried out by the MAR model allow to estimate the importance of each anomaly in the record simulated melt of summer 2010. [less ▲]

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See detailImpact of the spatial resolution on the Greenland Ice Sheet Surface Mass Balance modelling using the regional climate model MAR with the aim to force an ice sheet model.
Franco, Bruno ULg; Fettweis, Xavier ULg; Erpicum, Michel ULg

Poster (2011, April 05)

By using the regional climate model MAR (Modèle Atmosphérique Régional), validated for Greenland at 25km resolution and forced every 6 hours with the ERA-INTERIM reanalysis (Fettweis 2007, Fettweis et al ... [more ▼]

By using the regional climate model MAR (Modèle Atmosphérique Régional), validated for Greenland at 25km resolution and forced every 6 hours with the ERA-INTERIM reanalysis (Fettweis 2007, Fettweis et al. 2010), we have modelled the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) Surface Mass Balance (SMB) at 20, 25, 30, 40 and 50km resolution to assess the impact of the spatial resolution. As part of the ICE2SEA project, the 25km-resolution SMB outputs of the MAR model are used as forcing fields for ice sheet models, in order to produce future projections of the GrIS contribution to sea-level rise over the next 200 years. Although the current spatial resolution of the MAR model (25km) is much higher than the general circulation models (GCM) resolution (150-300km), the ice sheet models often run at a higher resolution (typically 5-10km). Nevertheless, such higher-resolution runs of the MAR model on the same integration domain generate a significant additional computing time and are not doable until now. Moreover, conventional linear interpolations of the SMB outputs onto a higher-resolution grid, generally induce biases because ice sheet masks at different spatial resolutions do not match and the SMB is a very complex function of the spatial resolution and the topography . That is why several enhanced SMB interpolations are tested here in order to reduce biases when interpolating the MAR outputs onto higher resolution, in the framework of the ICE2SEA project. [less ▲]

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See detailEvaluation of the present and future general circulation over Greenland simulated by the IPCC AR5/CMIP5 GCMs with the help of a circulation type classification
Belleflamme, Alexandre ULg; Fettweis, Xavier ULg; Erpicum, Michel ULg

Poster (2011, April 05)

Future projections of the Greenland ice sheet melt are based on General Circulation Model (GCM) simulations. In particular, the reliability of downscaling methods forced by these simulations depends on ... [more ▼]

Future projections of the Greenland ice sheet melt are based on General Circulation Model (GCM) simulations. In particular, the reliability of downscaling methods forced by these simulations depends on the quality of the atmospheric circulation simulated by GCMs. Therefore, it is essential to analyse and evaluate the GCMs modelled general circulation for current climate (1961-1990). Atmospheric circulation type classifications offer a very interesting approach for evaluating the GCM-based circulation at a daily time scale compared to the most used methods based only on monthly means. Indeed, the circulation type classification allows a precise and detailed analysis of each circulation type and so, it gives much more information on the ability of GCMs to simulate the different circulation types and consequently the climatic variability of a region. In fact, exceptional circulation events over Greenland, which cannot be taken into account by the monthly mean approach, have much more impact on the melt than the mean atmospheric state. Thus, an automated correlation-based atmospheric circulation type classification (CTC) is used for evaluating the new GCM outputs (available on http://cmip-pcmdi.llnl.gov/cmip5/) computed for the upcoming IPCC report (AR5). The daily geopotential height at 500 hPa simulations of the GCMs for current climate are compared to the NCEP-NCAR 1 and the ECMWF reanalysis data for the summer months (JJA), when melt is the most important. To achieve this, the classification is first done for the reanalysis data over 1961-1990 and afterwards, the types of the reanalysis based CTC are imposed for classifying the GCM datasets over 1961-1990 (from the historical experiment) to allow a direct type per type comparison based on the frequency distribution of each dataset. This approach also gives the opportunity to study the intraclass repartition differences between the reanalysis and the GCMs. After the evaluation of the GCM simulations for current climate, the future projections driven by RCP concentrations or emissions (2011-2040, 2041-2070 and 2071-2100) from the best matching GCMs are analysed in the same way. For current climate, it clearly appears that only a few GCMs are able to reproduce reliably the variability of the atmospheric circulation over Greenland during summer. The differences of frequency between the GCMs and the reanalysis are mainly due to biases of the geopotential height which is systematically over or underestimated by most GCMs and to the underestimation of the variability of the circulation by most GCMs. For future projections, no new circulation types are detected, but rather a general increase of the mean geopotential height regardless of the circulation type. It is also important to note that for many GCMs, the uncertainty of the current climate simulations (given by the differences of the classification results between the GCM simulations for current climate and the reanalysis data for the same time) are of the same order than the projected changes for future climate. Therefore, these projections may be questionable. [less ▲]

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See detailEvaluation of the Greenland ice sheet surface mass balance simulated by a regional climate model forced by some selected IPCC AR5/CMIP5 AOGCMs over the current climate.
Fettweis, Xavier ULg; van den Broeke, Michiel; van de Berg, Willem Jan et al

Conference (2011, April 05)

Abstract. As part of the ICE2SEA project, the regional climate model MAR was forced by the general circulation model ECHAM5 for making future projections of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) Surface Mass ... [more ▼]

Abstract. As part of the ICE2SEA project, the regional climate model MAR was forced by the general circulation model ECHAM5 for making future projections of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) Surface Mass Balance (SMB) over 1980-2099 at a resolution of 25km. For the A1B scenario, MAR projects a highly negative (-500 GT/yr) SMB rate at the end of this century and a induced mass loss corresponding to a sea level rise of ~7 cm over 2000-2100. However, the comparison with MAR forced by the ERA-40 reanalysis over 1980-1999 shows that MAR forced by the 20C3M scenario is not able to represent reliably the current SMB due to biases in the general circulation and in the free atmosphere summer temperature modeled by ECHAM5 around the GrIS. These biases induce in MAR an underestimation of the snow accumulation and an overestimation of the surface melt. Therefore, this questions the reliability of these ECHAM5-forced future projections, knowing that i) these biases could be amplified in future and that ii) the MAR outputs are used to force ice sheets models for the ICE2SEA project. That is why, by waiting the outputs from the next generation of GCMs (CMIP5), we investigate the impacts of current climate biases over the future projections and we suggest corrections of ECHAM5 forcing files for having a better agreement with the ERA-40 forced simulation. This is useful for the ice sheet model wanting to use the absolute values of MAR future projections instead of anomalies. [less ▲]

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See detailEvolution of wind behaviour and of its potential for wind power production in Belgium during the last 30 years.
Doutreloup, Sébastien ULg; Fettweis, Xavier ULg; Sacré, Bernard ULg et al

Poster (2011, April 04)

The number of wind turbines in the world grows significantly every year due to politics proposing green energy productions as solutions to mitigate climate change effects. However, this kind of energy is ... [more ▼]

The number of wind turbines in the world grows significantly every year due to politics proposing green energy productions as solutions to mitigate climate change effects. However, this kind of energy is dependent on the weather. This implies that the wind production is irregular at a very short time scale. But the short time scale availability of the wind-based energy is important to the producers of energy as well as to the electric grid managers because the wind energy production can rise or fall rapidly which creates some financial and voltage variations. For these reasons, we study the past evolution of the availability of the wind quantity by analysing the intermittence of the wind speed in Belgium during the last 30 years. To reach this goal, we use the regional model WRF (Weather and Research Forecast model) developed by the UCAR community users. The WRF model is forced by the NCEP2 Reanalysis model to obtain a regionalisation of the weather conditions over a domain centred on Belgium at a spatiotemporal resolution of 10 km and 1 min. This resolution allows to capture the minute-based time scale variability of wind speed and consequently the irregular behaviour of the wind power production. To obtain a value of the wind intermittence, we calculate the persistence of a wind blowing continuously with a minimum speed of 1 ms-1, then the persistence of a wind blowing continuously with a minimum speed of 2 ms-1, etc. The persistence of the wind speed and its evolution over 30 years are characterised by : (a) the mean wind speed over a fixed period (monthly, seasonally, … ), (b) the mean duration of a wind speed above x ms-1 over the same fixed period and (c) the evolution of (a) and (b) during the studied period. This study will show the evolution during the last decades of the wind behaviour in Belgium and its potential for electricity production. [less ▲]

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See detailPresent and future climates of the Greenland ice sheet according to the IPCC AR4 models
Franco, Bruno ULg; Fettweis, Xavier ULg; Erpicum, Michel ULg et al

in Climate Dynamics (2011), 36

The atmosphere–ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) used for the IPCC 4th Assessment Report (IPCC AR4) are evaluated for the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) current climate modelling. The most suited ... [more ▼]

The atmosphere–ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) used for the IPCC 4th Assessment Report (IPCC AR4) are evaluated for the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) current climate modelling. The most suited AOGCMs for Greenland climate simulation are then selected on the basis of comparison between the 1970–1999 outputs of the Climate of the twentieth Century experiment (20C3M) and reanalyses (ECMWF, NCEP/NCAR). This comparison indicates that the representation quality of surface parameters such as temperature and precipitation are highly correlated to the atmospheric circulation (500 hPa geopotential height) and its interannual variability (North Atlantic oscillation). The outputs of the three most suitable AOGCMs for present-day climate simulation are then used to assess the changes estimated by three IPCC greenhouse gas emissions scenarios (SRES) over the GrIS for the 2070–2099 period. Future atmospheric circulation changes are projected to dampen the zonal flow, enhance the meridional fluxes and therefore provide additional heat and moisture to the GrIS, increasing temperature over the whole ice sheet and precipitation over its northeastern area. We also show that the GrIS surface mass balance anomalies from the SRES A1B scenario amount to −300 km3/year with respect to the 1970–1999 period, leading to a global sea-level rise of 5 cm by the end of the 21st century. This work can help to select the boundaries conditions for AOGCMs-based downscaled future projections. [less ▲]

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