Large scale surface – subsurface hydrological model to assess climate change impacts on groundwater reserves

in Journal of Hydrology (2009), 373

Estimating the impacts of climate change on groundwater represents one of the most difficult challenges faced by water resources specialists. One difficulty is that simplifying the representation of the ... [more ▼]

Estimating the impacts of climate change on groundwater represents one of the most difficult challenges faced by water resources specialists. One difficulty is that simplifying the representation of the hydrological system often leads to discrepancies in projections. This study provides an improved methodology for the estimation of the impacts of climate change on groundwater reserves, where a physically-based surface – subsurface flow model is combined with advanced climate change scenarios for the Geer basin (465 km²), Belgium. Coupled surface–subsurface flow is simulated with the finite element model HydroGeoSphere. The simultaneous solution of surface and subsurface flow equations in HydroGeoSphere, as well as the internal calculation of the actual evapotranspiration as a function of the soil moisture at each node of the defined evaporative zone, improve the representation of interdependent processes like recharge, which is crucial in the context of climate change. More simple models or externally coupled models do not provide the same level of realism. Fully integrated surface – subsurface flow models have recently gained attention, but have not been used in the context of climate change impact studies. Climate change simulations were obtained from 6 regional climate model (RCM) scenarios assuming the SRES A2 emission (medium-high) scenario. These RCM scenarios were downscaled using a quantile mapping bias-correction technique that, rather than applying a correction only to the mean, forces the probability distributions of the control simulations of daily temperature and precipitation to match the observed distributions. The same corrections are then applied to RCM scenarios for the future. Climate change scenarios predict hotter and drier summer and warmer and wetter winters. The combined use of an integrated surface – subsurface modelling approach, a spatial representation of the evapotranspiration processes and sophisticated climate change scenarios improves the model realism and projections of climate change impacts on groundwater reserves. For the climatic scenarios considered, the integrated flow simulations show that significant decreases are expected in the groundwater levels (up to 8 meters) and in the surface water flow rates (between 9% and 33%) by 2080. [less ▲]

Modélisation d’une partie du bassin charbonnier de Liège selon une approche mixte au moyen du logiciel SUFT3D, Région Wallonne

Report (2008)

Etude hydrogéologique sur les incidences potentielles d’une extension de la carrière Marnebel

Report (2008)

A new tracer technique for monitoring groundwater fluxes : the finite volume point dilution method

Conference (2008, June 06)

Evaluation of the ONDRAF/NIRAS report ‘Evaluation of pelitic rocks as potential host-rocks for disposal of nuclear waste'

Report (2008)

Etude par modélisation du pompage dans l’aquifère alluvial de la Meuse pour le refroidissement d’un futur bâtiment de bureaux (SPF Finances, Liège)

Report (2008)

Etude de tendance dans les hauteurs piézométriques mesurées au piézomètre de Viemme

Report (2008)

A New Tracer Technique for Monitoring Groundwater Fluxes: The Finite Volume Point Dilution Method

in Journal of Contaminant Hydrology (2008), 95(3-4), 121-40

Quantification of pollutant mass fluxes is essential for assessing the impact of contaminated sites on their surrounding environment, particularly on adjacent surface water bodies. In this context, it is ... [more ▼]

Quantification of pollutant mass fluxes is essential for assessing the impact of contaminated sites on their surrounding environment, particularly on adjacent surface water bodies. In this context, it is essential to quantify but also to be able to monitor the variations with time of Darcy fluxes in relation with changes in hydrogeological conditions and groundwater - surface water interactions. A new tracer technique is proposed that generalizes the single-well point dilution method to the case of finite volumes of tracer fluid and water flush. It is called the Finite Volume Point Dilution Method (FVPDM). It is based on an analytical solution derived from a mathematical model proposed recently to accurately model tracer injection into a well. Using a non-dimensional formulation of the analytical solution, a sensitivity analysis is performed on the concentration evolution in the injection well, according to tracer injection conditions and well-aquifer interactions. Based on this analysis, optimised field techniques and interpretation methods are proposed. The new tracer technique is easier to implement in the field than the classical point dilution method while it further allows monitoring temporal changes of the magnitude of estimated Darcy fluxes, which is not the case for the former technique. The new technique was applied to two experimental sites with contrasting objectives, geological and hydrogeological conditions, and field equipment facilities. In both cases, field tracer concentrations monitored in the injection wells were used to fit the calculated modelled concentrations by adjusting the apparent Darcy flux crossing the well screens. Modelling results are very satisfactory and indicate that the methodology is efficient and accurate, with a wide range of potential applications in different environments and experimental conditions, including the monitoring with time of changes in Darcy fluxes. [less ▲]

The Hybrid Finite-Element Mixing-Cell method: a new flexible method for large scale groundwater modelling

Conference (2008)

Interest of end-users and policy makers for understanding and managing water systems at the regional scale has increased for years. At this scale, groundwater models of different complexity ranging from ... [more ▼]

Interest of end-users and policy makers for understanding and managing water systems at the regional scale has increased for years. At this scale, groundwater models of different complexity ranging from black-box models to physically based distributed models have been used in various hydrogeological conditions. Black-box models, such as transfer functions, have been applied for example to model groundwater in large scale hydrological models, to model karstic systems, in particular for the interpretation of isotopic data. Their concepts are simple and attractive because they require relatively few data. The main drawbacks are however that modelling results are not spatially distributed and their predictive capability is questionable due to the semi-empirical nature of process descriptions. On the contrary, due to a more advanced description of ongoing processes, physically-based distributed models are expected to have better predictive capabilities than black-box models. However, because such models require more data, they are generally applied for case studies that are better characterized from a hydrogeological point of view, for which the distribution of water levels or solute concentrations in the groundwater systems are needed. For large-scale modelling purposes, black-box models and physically-based distributed models have both proved their utilities and have their own justifications, advantages and disadvantages. However, few attempts have been made to combine the advantages of these two categories of approaches in a unified modelling application. A new flexible modelling approach, the Hybrid Finite-Element Mixing-Cell method (HFEMC), has been developed that allows combining in a single model, and in a fully integrated way, different mathematical approaches of various complexities for groundwater modelling in complex and large scale environments. This method has been implemented in the groundwater flow and solute transport numerical code SUFT3D. The approach has been first tested and illustrated using basic and advanced “synthetic” examples that allow validating and discussing its advantages over existing modelling concepts. The HFEMC approach is now applied for the development of a large scale groundwater flow and solute transport model in different groundwater basins in Belgium. [less ▲]

Groundwater vulnerability assessment using physically based modelling: from challenges to pragmatic solutions

in Refsgaard, J. C.; Kovar, K.; Haarder, E. (Eds.) et al Calibration and Reliability in Groundwater Modelling: Credibility in Modelling (2008)

Numerous groundwater vulnerability and risk mapping techniques have been developed taking into consideration a variable number of factors. The most common techniques are based on calculation of an index ... [more ▼]

Numerous groundwater vulnerability and risk mapping techniques have been developed taking into consideration a variable number of factors. The most common techniques are based on calculation of an index expressing the protective effect of underground formations overlying the groundwater resource. The limitation of most of these methods is related to their use of a qualitative definition of groundwater vulnerability, as opposed to a definition based on a quantitative description of contaminant migration. A physically-based point of view and definition of the vulnerability is proposed and based on three factors describing a pollution event, which are the contaminant transfer time from the hazard location to the 'target', the contamination duration at the 'target' and the level of contaminant concentration reached at the 'target'. This concept allows a clear distinction between conventional aspects and physically-based results in the building of a final vulnerability indicator. This methodology has the further advantage to consider the possible impact of runoff conditions occurring at the land surface and possibly leading to lateral contamination of groundwater through downstream preferential infiltration features. Practically, this method needs to describe and simulate the pollutant migration in the unsaturated zone and possibly in the saturated zone in order to assess the breakthrough curve at the 'target'. Preliminary application is illustrated on a case-study located in a limestone basin in Belgium. Perspectives are proposed towards a generalisation of the vulnerability concept for risk assessment within a pressure - state - impact framework. [less ▲]