References of "Cools, Mario"
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See detailAssessing the effect of traveler's nationality on daily travel time expenditure using Zero-Inflated Negative Binomial Regression models: results from the Belgian national household travel survey.
Eftekhar, Hamed ULg; Creemers, Lieve; Cools, Mario ULg

in Proceedings of the 95th Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board (2016)

In this paper, the effect of traveler's nationality on daily travel time expenditure is assessed using data stemming from the 2010 Belgian national household travel survey. In particular, different (zero ... [more ▼]

In this paper, the effect of traveler's nationality on daily travel time expenditure is assessed using data stemming from the 2010 Belgian national household travel survey. In particular, different (zero-inflated) negative binomial models were estimated to isolate the effect of nationality, after controlling for other contributing factors such as socio-demographics, residential characteristics, transport options and temporal characteristics. The results indicate that, even if one controls for a series of other influencing factors, nationality plays a significant role in differences in travel time expenditure. This finding is especially relevant in the development of policy packages that are targeted to tackle social inequalities. From a methodological perspective, different methodological options, i.e. two weighting schemes and two bootstrap solutions, were presented to provide sufficient support for the conclusions. In order to generalize the results in further studies, an oversampling of travelers with a different nationality is strongly recommended. Future research should focus more on the underlying psychological constructs of why ethnic and cultural differences persist, even if one accounts for other determinants. [less ▲]

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See detailAn integrated framework for forecasting travel behavior using Markov Chain Monte-Carlo simulation and profile Hidden Markov Models
Saadi, Ismaïl ULg; El Saeid Mustafa, Ahmed Mohamed ULg; Teller, Jacques ULg et al

in Proceedings of the 95th Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board (2016)

Recent advances in agent-based micro-simulation modelling have further underlined the importance of a thorough full synthetic population procedure to guarantee a correct characterization of the true ... [more ▼]

Recent advances in agent-based micro-simulation modelling have further underlined the importance of a thorough full synthetic population procedure to guarantee a correct characterization of the true population. We propose an integrated approach including Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation and profiling based methods to catch the complexity and the diversity of agents of the true population through representative micro samples. The population synthesis method is capable of building the joint distribution of a given population with its corresponding marginal distributions (e.g. age, gender, socio-professional status etc.) using complete, partial conditional probabilities or both of them at the same time. Particularly, the estimation of socio-demographic variables and characterization of daily activity-travel patterns are included within the framework. Data stemming from the 2010 Belgian Household Daily Travel Survey (BELDAM) are used to calibrate the modelling framework. We illustrate that this framework catches in an efficient way the behavioral heterogeneity of travelers. Furthermore, we show that the proposed framework is adequately adapted to build large scale micro-simulation scenarios of transportation and urban systems. [less ▲]

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See detailModelling Agents’ Behavior in the Context of River Floods: An Ant Colony based Approach
Saadi, Ismaïl ULg; El Saeid Mustafa, Ahmed Mohamed ULg; Teller, Jacques ULg et al

Conference (2015, September)

This paper presents a model for understanding short-term travelers’ behavior in the context of river floods. In several cities, river floods are considerably affecting urban transportation systems. In ... [more ▼]

This paper presents a model for understanding short-term travelers’ behavior in the context of river floods. In several cities, river floods are considerably affecting urban transportation systems. In this regard, decision makers need comprehensive models to define efficient risk management strategies. The dynamic nature of this problem requires an algorithm able to deal with traffic redirecting during the micro-simulation process. Furthermore, a transportation network contains a significant number of links and nodes which lead to large computation times. In this regard, an Ant Colony Optimization (ACO) algorithm is proposed to solve such combinatorial problems. In a basic ACO, some ants/agents might push the algorithm to converge toward non-optimal solutions. In this context, a MAX-MIN Ant System (AS) approach is included in the algorithm to stimulate the best solutions. In addition, the discrete choice model is adapted to allow more behavioral reactions regarding simulated river floods. [less ▲]

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See detailCharacterizing activity sequences using Profile Hidden Markov Models
Liu, Feng; Janssens, Davy; Cui, JianXun et al

in Expert Systems with Applications (2015), 42(13), 57055722

In literature, activity sequences, generated from activity-travel diaries, have been analyzed and classified into clusters based on the composition and ordering of the activities using Sequence Alignment ... [more ▼]

In literature, activity sequences, generated from activity-travel diaries, have been analyzed and classified into clusters based on the composition and ordering of the activities using Sequence Alignment Methods (SAM). However, using these methods, only the frequent activities in each cluster are extracted and qualitatively described; the infrequent activities and their related travel episodes are disregarded. Thus, to quantify the occurrence probabilities of all the daily activities as well as their sequential orders, we develop a novel process to build multiple alignments of the sequences and subsequently derive profile Hidden Markov Models (pHMMs). This process consists of 4 major steps. First, activity sequences are clustered based on a pre-defined scheme. The frequent activities along with their sequential orders are then identified in each cluster, and they are subsequently used as a template to guide the construction of a multiple alignment of the cluster of sequences. Finally, a pHMM is employed to convert the multiple alignment into a position-specific scoring system, representing the probability of each frequent activity at each important position of the alignment as well as the probabilities of both insertion and deletion of infrequent activities. By applying the derived pHMMs to a set of activity-travel diaries collected in Belgium as well as a group of mobile phone call location data recorded in Switzerland, the potential and effectiveness of the models in capturing the sequential features of each cluster and distinguishing them from those of other clusters, are demonstrated. The proposed method can also be utilized to improve activity-based transportation model validation and travel survey designs. Furthermore, it offers a wide application in characterizing a group of any related sequences, particularly sequences varying in length and with a high frequency of short sequences that are typically present in human behavior. [less ▲]

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See detailEthnic Differences in Travel Time Expenditure
Cools, Mario ULg; Eftekhar, Hamed ULg

in Proceeding of the 14th International Conference on Travel Behaviour Reresearch (IATBR 2015) (2015, July 23)

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See detailModelling Uncertainties in Long-Term Predictions of Urban Growth: A Coupled Cellular Automata and Agent-Based Approach
El Saeid Mustafa, Ahmed Mohamed ULg; Saadi, Ismaïl ULg; Cools, Mario ULg et al

in Ferreira, Joseph; Goodspeed, Robert (Eds.) Proceedings of CUPUM 2015 (2015, July 07)

Modelling the growth of urban settlements is of considerable interest for different applications, amongst which integrated flood management. This study aims at modelling urban growth for a long time ... [more ▼]

Modelling the growth of urban settlements is of considerable interest for different applications, amongst which integrated flood management. This study aims at modelling urban growth for a long time horizon up to 2100 and to integrate the model outcomes with a hydrological model for the same time horizon. Forecasting land-use change over such time frames entails very significant uncertainties. In this regard, the main focus of this paper is attributed to the handling of uncertainty in an urban growth model. To this end, we examine a Monte Carlo Simulation method, which is integrated in the proposed urban growth model. Transition probabilities for each non-urban cell are estimated by a coupled Cellular Automata-Agent-Based ap-proach. The results help to handle uncertainty over long time horizons and to assess the increment in degree of uncertainty at every time-step. [less ▲]

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See detailUrban Development as a Continuum: A Multinomial Logistic Regression Approach
El Saeid Mustafa, Ahmed Mohamed ULg; Cools, Mario ULg; Saadi, Ismaïl ULg et al

in Gervasi, Osvaldo; Murgante, Beniamino; Misra, Sanjay (Eds.) et al Computational Science and Its Applications – ICCSA 2015, Part III (2015)

Urban development is a complex process influenced by a number of driving forces, including spatial planning, topography and urban economics. Identifying these drivers is crucial for the regulation of ... [more ▼]

Urban development is a complex process influenced by a number of driving forces, including spatial planning, topography and urban economics. Identifying these drivers is crucial for the regulation of urban development and the calibration of predictive models. Existing land-use models generally consider urban development as a binary process, through the identification of built versus non-built areas. This study considers urban development as a continuum, characterized by different level of densities, which can be related to different driving forces. A multinomial logistic regression model was employed to investigate the effects of drivers on different urban densities during the past decade in Wallonia, Belgium. Sixteen drivers were selected from sets of driving forces including accessibility, geophysical features, policies and socioeconomic factors. It appears that urban development in Wallonia is remarkably influenced by land-use policies and accessibility. Most importantly, our results highlight that the impact of different drivers varies along with urban density. [less ▲]

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See detailLanduse change and future flood risk: an integrated and multi-scale approach
Dewals, Benjamin ULg; Bruwier, Martin ULg; Mohamed El Saeid Mustafa, Ahmed ULg et al

in E-proceedings of the 36th IAHR World Congress (2015, June)

The goal of this research is a better understanding of the complex interactions between landuse change and future flood risk. Landuse change is mainly driven by population growth and socio-economic ... [more ▼]

The goal of this research is a better understanding of the complex interactions between landuse change and future flood risk. Landuse change is mainly driven by population growth and socio-economic factors. It affects future flood risk by altering catchment hydrology and vulnerability in the floodplains, as well as through the feedback effect that changes in flood hazard may have on landuse evolution. The research is based on a chain of modelling tools, including: stochastic landuse change modelling, traffic modelling as well as Land-Use and Transport Interactions models, continuous hydrological modelling and efficient hydraulic modelling of floodplains inundation. The coupling of these modelling tools will allow assessing direct and indirect impacts of land use change on future flood risk, while considering the uncertainties related to each of these processes and their combinations at a 2100 time horizon. [less ▲]

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See detailMeteorological variation in daily travel behaviour: evidence from revealed preference data from the Netherlands
Creemers, Lieve; Wets, Geert; Cools, Mario ULg

in Theoretical & Applied Climatology (2015), 120(1-2), 183-194

This study investigates the meteorological variation in revealed preference travel data. The main objective of this study is to investigate the impact of weather conditions on daily activity participation ... [more ▼]

This study investigates the meteorological variation in revealed preference travel data. The main objective of this study is to investigate the impact of weather conditions on daily activity participation (trip motives) and daily modal choices in the Netherlands. To this end, data from the Dutch National Travel Household Survey of 2008 were matched to hourly weather data provided by the Royal Dutch Meteorological Institute and were complemented with thermal indices to indicate the level of thermal comfort and additional variables to indicate the seasonality of the weather conditions. Two multinomial logit–generalised estimation equations (MNL-GEE) models were constructed, one to assess the impact of weather conditions on trip motives and one to assess the effect of weather conditions on modal choice. The modelling results indicate that, depending on the travel attribute of concern, other factors might play a role. Nonetheless, the thermal component, as well as the aesthetical component and the physical component of weather play a significant role. Moreover, the parameter estimates indicate significant differences in the impact of weather conditions when different time scales are considered (e.g. daily versus hourly based). The fact that snow does not play any role at all was unexpected. This finding can be explained by the relatively low occurrence of this weather type in the study area. It is important to consider the effects of weather in travel demand modelling frameworks because this will help to achieve higher accuracy and more realistic traffic forecasts. These will in turn allow policy makers to make better long-term and short-term decisions to achieve various political goals, such as progress towards a sustainable transportation system. Further research in this respect should emphasise the role of weather conditions and activityscheduling attributes. [less ▲]

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See detailModeling accessibility to schools: the case of Wallonia, Belgium
Maldague, Hubert ULg; Teller, Jacques ULg; Cools, Mario ULg

in Rasouli, Soora; Timmermans, Harry (Eds.) Current Issues in Transportation Research, Proceedings of the BIVEC/GIBET Transport Research Days 2015 (2015)

Several recent studies about school mobility highlighted the significant decline of active modes and public transport's modal shares. Associated with this decline, it can be observed that distances ... [more ▼]

Several recent studies about school mobility highlighted the significant decline of active modes and public transport's modal shares. Associated with this decline, it can be observed that distances between home and schools have been rising the last two decades. To develop appropriate policies alleviating the negative effects of the increased motorization in the school commute, a diagnosis of probable causes is required. To perform this diagnosis, we develop an accessibility-based methodology using data stemming from the Belgian national household travel (BELDAM) survey. Gamma-functions are calibrated to describe the use of different transport modes according to their relative travel times. Data from OpenStreetMap are used to describe the Walloon roads network in terms of the maximum allowed vehicle speed and length for each link. Properties of the network are modified to match with other transport modes. Maps of accessibility to schools are computed for each transport mode by merging the value of access time represented by isochrones and the calibrated gamma-functions. [less ▲]

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See detailKnowledge of the concept Light Rail Transit: Exploring its relevance and identification of the determinants of various knowledge levels
Creemers, Lieve; Tormans, Hans; Bellemans, Tom et al

in Transportation Research. Part A : Policy & Practice (2015), 74

This paper explores the knowledge of the concept ‘Light Rail Transit’ (LRT) in the context of implementing a Light Rail system in a (sub)-urban region. To this end, three models are estimated: a first ... [more ▼]

This paper explores the knowledge of the concept ‘Light Rail Transit’ (LRT) in the context of implementing a Light Rail system in a (sub)-urban region. To this end, three models are estimated: a first model to explore the role of knowledge on modal choice, a second one to identify the determinants of the level of knowledge and a third model to identify the determinants of a cognitive mismatch between actual (real) knowledge and perceived knowledge. The first model (a negative binomial regression model) underlines the significant relation between knowledge of the concept LRT and modal choice. Given the lack of knowledge of the concept ‘Light Rail Transit’ revealed by the descriptive results, it is of crucial importance to raise the level of knowledge. Knowledge acquisition can be based on transit experiences and information provision. To explore how information campaigns should be constructed and which target groups should be approached, the factors influencing travelers’ knowledge and the determinants of a cognitive mismatch are identified by a Multinomial Logit Model (MNL-model) and a binary logit model. The results show that various socio-economic variables as well as socio-psychological variables are significantly influencing actual knowledge and significantly influencing a cognitive mismatch. Among these variables, employment, gender, perception of ticket price of Public Transit (PT) and expectations with regard to seat availability in the LRT-vehicle are the most influential ones. [less ▲]

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See detailBayesian inference for transportation origin–destination matrices: the Poisson–inverse Gaussian and other Poisson mixtures
Perrakis, Konstantinos; Karlis, Dimitris; Cools, Mario ULg et al

in Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A Statistics in Society (2015), 178(1), 271-296

Transportation origin–destination analysis is investigated through the use of Poisson mixtures by introducing covariate-based models which incorporate different transport modelling phases and also allow ... [more ▼]

Transportation origin–destination analysis is investigated through the use of Poisson mixtures by introducing covariate-based models which incorporate different transport modelling phases and also allow for direct probabilistic inference on link traffic based on Bayesian predictions. Emphasis is placed on the Poisson–inverse Gaussian model as an alternative to the commonly used Poisson–gamma and Poisson–log-normal models. We present a first full Bayesian formulation and demonstrate that the Poisson–inverse Gaussian model is particularly suited for origin–destination analysis because of its desirable marginal and hierarchical properties. In addition, the integrated nested Laplace approximation is considered as an alternative to Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling and the two methodologies are compared under specific modelling assumptions. The case-study is based on 2001 Belgian census data and focuses on a large, sparsely distributed origin–destination matrix containing trip information for 308 Flemish municipalities. [less ▲]

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See detailAnalyzing Access, Egress, and Main Transport Mode of Public Transit Journeys: Evidence from the Flemish National Household Travel Survey
Creemers, Lieve; Bellemans, Tom; Janssens, Davy et al

in Proceedings of the 94th Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board (2015)

The primary objective of this paper is to explore the influence of socio-demographic and contextual variables on the multimodal character of public transit journeys. Accounting for multimodality in public ... [more ▼]

The primary objective of this paper is to explore the influence of socio-demographic and contextual variables on the multimodal character of public transit journeys. Accounting for multimodality in public transit journeys is important from a demand modeling point of view, especially in the assessment of new projected public transit infrastructure. To meet the objective, data from the national household travel survey of Flanders (Belgium) is analyzed. Based on 2,202 public transit journeys, the main public transit mode choice (bus/tram/metro or train) and access/egress mode choice are simultaneously estimated using a multinomial logit model, and by explicitly making a distinction between unimodal and multimodal transit journeys. The results indicate that various socio-demographical (e.g. age, gender, level of education, household income) and contextual factors (e.g. journey distance, journey motive, urbanization degree, car availability) significantly influence the joint decision process. Total journey distance and car availability are identified as the most important explanatory variables. In terms of model performance, the model appears to yield satisfactory predictions, justifying the integration of the model in more general demand modeling frameworks. [less ▲]

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See detailMeasuring the Effect of Stochastic Perturbation Component in Cellular Automata Urban Growth Model
El Saeid Mustafa, Ahmed Mohamed ULg; Saadi, Ismaïl ULg; Cools, Mario ULg et al

in Procedia Environmental Sciences (2014), 22(Winter), 156168

Urban environments are complex dynamic systems whose prediction of the future states cannot exclusively rely on deterministic rules. Although several studies on urban growth were carried out using ... [more ▼]

Urban environments are complex dynamic systems whose prediction of the future states cannot exclusively rely on deterministic rules. Although several studies on urban growth were carried out using different modelling approaches, the measurement of uncertainties was commonly neglected in these studies. This paper investigates the effect of uncertainty in urban growth models by introducing a stochastic perturbation method. A cellular automaton is used to simulate predicted urban growth. The effect of stochastic perturbation is addressed by comparing series of urban growth simulations based on different degree of stochastic perturbation randomness with the original urban growth simulation, obtained with the sole cellular automata neighbouring effects. These simulations are evaluated using cell-to-cell location agreement and a number of spatial metrics. The model framework has been applied to the Ourthe river basin in Belgium. The results show that the accuracy of the model is increased by introducing a stochastic perturbation component with a limited degree of randomness, in the cellular automata urban growth model. [less ▲]

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See detailLanduse change and future flood risk: the influence of micro-scale spatial patterns (FloodLand) - 2nd progress report
Dewals, Benjamin ULg; Bruwier, Martin ULg; El Saeid Mustafa, Ahmed Mohamed ULg et al

Report (2014)

The goal of the project FloodLand is to investigate the complex interactions between landuse change and future flood risk. Landuse change is assumed to be mainly driven by population growth and socio ... [more ▼]

The goal of the project FloodLand is to investigate the complex interactions between landuse change and future flood risk. Landuse change is assumed to be mainly driven by population growth and socio-economic factors. It affects future flood risk by altering catchment hydrology as well as vulnerability in the floodplains; but the feedback effect of (the perception of) changes in flood hazard on landuse evolution is also considered. The research is based on a chain of modelling tools, which represent parts of the natural and human systems, including: landuse change modelling, transportation modelling as an onset for the estimation of indirect flood damage, continuous hydrological modelling (forced by precipitation and temperature data disturbed according to climate change scenarios), as well as efficient hydraulic modelling of inundation flow in the floodplains. Besides reproducing a broad spectrum of processes, the modelling approach spans over multiple scales, from the regional or catchment level down to the floodplain and building levels. This distinctive feature is reflected both within the individual models and through their combination involving fine-scale detailed analyses (or data) embedded within coarser models at a broader level. [less ▲]

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See detailAn Econometric Analysis of Homeownership Determinants in Belgium
Xhignesse, Guillaume ULg; Bianchet, Bruno ULg; Cools, Mario ULg et al

in Lecture Notes in Computer Science (2014, July), 8581

In market economies, homeownership is associated with positive ex- ternalities. Increasing the levels of homeownership has been an objective of governments for the last decades. The analysis of the ... [more ▼]

In market economies, homeownership is associated with positive ex- ternalities. Increasing the levels of homeownership has been an objective of governments for the last decades. The analysis of the determinants of tenure sta- tus provides information to this end. This paper proposes an econometric analysis of housing tenure in Belgium. We review the main variables that have been considered in the literature as influencing housing tenure, after what we estimate a logit model. We observe a strong influence of income and age on the probability of homeownership. Couple relationship and the presence of dependent children have a positive influence, but this influence is less significant. Urban location is associated with lower probability of homeownership, compared with other areas. Our observations follow the trends described for other countries in the literature. [less ▲]

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See detailWhich are the determinants of homeownership ? A logit analysis for the case of Belgium
Xhignesse, Guillaume ULg; Bianchet, Bruno ULg; Cools, Mario ULg et al

Conference (2014, July)

In market-oriented economies, high rates of homeowners are traditionally associated with positive economic effects and externalities. For this reason, public authorities have encouraged homeownership for ... [more ▼]

In market-oriented economies, high rates of homeowners are traditionally associated with positive economic effects and externalities. For this reason, public authorities have encouraged homeownership for the last decades through taxation or subsidies policies. In Belgium, owner-occupation has been promoted since the end of the nineteenth century and homeownership policy is considered as a key element of the Welfare state. Furthermore, the effectiveness of these policies is fundamentally based on a clear understanding of what determines homeownership. Therefore, the analysis of tenure determinants can provide inputs for the definition or the renewal of housing, taxation and subsidies policies. Considering this interest, this paper investigates the issue of housing tenure in Belgium. On the basis of previous related research, a model of tenure choice is estimated using a sample of 6,962 households. The observations follow clearly the general trends described for other countries. Higher income and age, couple status and the presence of dependent children have positive influences on homeownership. In addition, locations presenting a high density of population and a high centrality are associated with a lower probability of homeownership compared with other areas. The underlying significations of these variables are discussed in the paper. [less ▲]

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See detailLanduse change and future flood risk: the influence of micro-scale spatial patterns (FloodLand) - 1st progress report
Dewals, Benjamin ULg; Bruwier, Martin ULg; El Saeid Mustafa, Ahmed Mohamed ULg et al

Report (2014)

The goal of the project FloodLand is to investigate the complex interactions between landuse change and future flood risk. Landuse change is assumed to be mainly driven by population growth and socio ... [more ▼]

The goal of the project FloodLand is to investigate the complex interactions between landuse change and future flood risk. Landuse change is assumed to be mainly driven by population growth and socio-economic factors. It affects future flood risk by altering catchment hydrology as well as vulnerability in the floodplains; but the feedback effect of (the perception of) changes in flood hazard on landuse evolution is also considered. The research is based on a chain of modelling tools, which represent parts of the natural and human systems, including: landuse change modelling, transportation modelling as an onset for the estimation of indirect flood damage, continuous hydrological modelling (forced by precipitation and temperature data disturbed according to climate change scenarios), as well as efficient hydraulic modelling of inundation flow in the floodplains. Besides reproducing a broad spectrum of processes, the modelling approach spans over multiple scales, from the regional or catchment level down to the floodplain and building levels. This distinctive feature is reflected both within the individual models and through their combination involving fine-scale detailed analyses (or data) embedded within coarser models at a broader level. [less ▲]

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See detailAn agent-based micro-simulation framework to assess the impact of river floods on transportation systems: implementation trajectory for an assessment in the Brussels metropolitan area
Saadi, Ismaïl ULg; Eftekhar, Hamed ULg; El Saeid Mustafa, Ahmed Mohamed ULg et al

in Proceeding of the International Conference on Traffic and Transport Engineering (2014)

Several studies were made to assess the direct damage but few studies tackled the topic related to the assessment of indirect damage. This paper discusses the development of a large scale agent-based ... [more ▼]

Several studies were made to assess the direct damage but few studies tackled the topic related to the assessment of indirect damage. This paper discusses the development of a large scale agent-based micro-simulation framework to assess the economic damage caused by river floods. The advantage of this approach is that the economic loss can be assessed at individual level. For that purpose, relationship is established between costs and trips cancelation/duration growth. As the numerical simulations depend largely on the initial demand, the accuracy of the data is fundamental. The model is based upon several disaggregated data related to mobility behaviour of the Belgian citizens. The study area covers the Brussels metropolitan area which was subjected to several floods in the past and may see the risk increasing in the coming decades. [less ▲]

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